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Commerce Bancshares
(NASDAQ:CBSH)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$65.00
â–²(27.13% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/07/26
CBSH scores well primarily on solid financial quality (strong profitability, steady ROE, and improving leverage), supported by constructive technical trends (price above major moving averages, positive MACD). Valuation is reasonable for the profile, and recent corporate actions (expanded buyback and retention/succession measures) add incremental support.
Positive Factors
Consistent Profitability and ROE
Commerce Bancshares' trailing profitability (net margin ~26%) and steady ROE (~15%) reflect durable operating efficiency in core lending, deposit and wealth businesses. Sustained margins and attractive ROE support internal capital generation, dividend capacity and reinvestment over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Modest Revenue Growth
Revenue expansion has been modest recently (TTM ~3.2%, 2025 ~2.2%), limiting scalability of earnings absent margin expansion. For a regional bank, slow top-line growth raises reliance on net interest margin improvement or fee diversification to drive sustainable long-term EPS gains.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Consistent Profitability and ROE
Commerce Bancshares' trailing profitability (net margin ~26%) and steady ROE (~15%) reflect durable operating efficiency in core lending, deposit and wealth businesses. Sustained margins and attractive ROE support internal capital generation, dividend capacity and reinvestment over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.40B
Dividend Yield1.97%
Average Volume (3M)1.31M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.1
Beta (1Y)0.65
Revenue Growth13.70%
EPS Growth5.91%
CountryUS
Employees4,662
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.20
Shares Outstanding145,777,160
10 Day Avg. Volume1,282,763
30 Day Avg. Volume1,308,935
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.49
Price to Book (P/B)1.92
Price to Sales (P/S)3.40
P/FCF Ratio12.27
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.19
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.53
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.61
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.16
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$58.40Price Target Upside14.22% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)4.19
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.97B
Commerce Bancshares Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Commerce Bancshares, Inc. functions as the parent organization for Commerce Bank, delivering a comprehensive suite of financial products and services. These offerings span retail banking, mortgage services, corporate finance, investment solutions,...
How the Company Makes Money
Commerce Bancshares primarily earns revenue through a mix of net interest income and noninterest income generated by its banking and wealth-related services. Net interest income is the spread between interest earned on interest-earning assets (inc...
Commerce Bancshares Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.21B | 2.14B | 2.09B | 1.97B | 1.57B | 1.44B |
| Gross Profit | 1.78B | 1.71B | 1.63B | 1.55B | 1.48B | 1.49B |
| EBITDA | 821.20M | 770.03M | 733.57M | 669.24M | 679.23M | 731.17M |
| Net Income | 576.28M | 566.25M | 526.33M | 477.06M | 488.40M | 530.76M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 35.72B | 32.92B | 32.00B | 31.70B | 31.88B | 36.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.22B | 9.90B | 12.51B | 12.37B | 13.08B | 18.73B |
| Total Debt | 2.58B | 3.00B | 2.93B | 2.91B | 2.85B | 3.04B |
| Total Liabilities | 31.39B | 29.10B | 28.66B | 28.74B | 29.39B | 33.24B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.30B | 3.79B | 3.31B | 2.94B | 2.47B | 3.44B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.12B | 592.39M | 531.73M | 400.69M | 494.19M | 541.01M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.19B | 645.14M | 577.86M | 488.77M | 559.38M | 597.72M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 770.27M | -462.37M | 483.79M | 2.18B | 242.27M | -2.08B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.39B | -11.04M | -372.94M | -883.12M | -4.20B | 3.57B |
Commerce Bancshares Technical Analysis
Positive
51.13
Price Trends
53.71
Positive
51.86
Positive
52.10
Positive
Market Momentum
1.47
Negative
64.52
Neutral
60.31
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CBSH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 51.13 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 56.69, below the 50-day MA of 53.71, and below the 200-day MA of 52.10, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.47 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CBSH.
Commerce Bancshares Risk Analysis
Commerce Bancshares disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Commerce Bancshares reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Commerce Bancshares Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $10.73B | 12.49 | 14.64% | 2.31% | 3.21% | 39.91% | |
74 Outperform | $8.40B | 14.07 | 14.87% | 1.97% | 13.70% | 5.91% | |
73 Outperform | $9.65B | 15.06 | 15.05% | 3.05% | 2.22% | 12.61% | |
73 Outperform | $14.78B | 12.36 | 7.42% | 0.95% | 39.90% | 16.82% | |
68 Neutral | $8.23B | 13.93 | 10.32% | 1.93% | -2.17% | 13.60% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
CBSH
Commerce Bancshares
58.37
-2.72
-4.45%
BOKF
Bok Financial
138.69
37.71
37.34%
CFR
Cullen/Frost Bankers
156.86
24.53
18.54%
PNFP
Pinnacle Financial Partners
100.47
-15.90
-13.66%
BPOP
Popular
170.56
59.75
53.92%
Commerce Bancshares Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Commerce Bancshares Tightens Executive Retention and Succession Plan
Positive
Jul 6, 2026
On July 1, 2026, Commerce Bancshares’ board compensation committee approved special time-vested restricted stock unit grants for Executive Vice President Kevin G. Barth and Executive Vice President and CFO Charles G. Kim, as part of the comp...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Commerce Bancshares Realigns Securities Portfolio After Visa Gain
Neutral
May 12, 2026
Commerce Bancshares, Inc. said it received Visa Inc.’s acceptance of its tender of 411,723 shares of Visa Class B-2 common stock on May 8, 2026, in exchange for Visa Class B-3 and Class C shares, and marked the new Visa Class C stock to fair...
Executive/Board ChangesStock BuybackShareholder Meetings
Commerce Bancshares Expands Share Repurchase Authorization Program
Positive
Apr 28, 2026
At its annual meeting held on April 24, 2026, Commerce Bancshares shareholders elected four directors—Blackford F. Brauer, W. Kyle Chapman, Karen L. Daniel and David W. Kemper—to the 2029 class, while the remaining board members contin...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Commerce Bancshares Expects Gain From Visa Share Exchange
Positive
Apr 27, 2026
On April 13, 2026, Visa Inc. launched a public exchange offer allowing holders of Class B-2 common stock to swap their shares for a mix of Visa Class B-3 and Class C common stock, prompting Commerce Bancshares to tender all 411,723 of its Visa Cla...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.