Ceribell, Inc. (CBLL) Risk Analysis

We must successfully manage introductions of new or enhanced products or new or enhanced features of the Ceribell System and Clarity, including those related to any future indications in addition to seizure. Introductions of new products or features of the Ceribell System and Clarity could also adversely impact the sales of our existing products to customers. For instance, the introduction or announcement of a new or advanced Ceribell System could shorten the life cycle of our existing devices or reduce demand for them, potentially reducing any benefits of successful new product or enhancement introductions and leading to challenges in managing the inventory of existing products. In addition, new or enhanced products may have higher manufacturing, marketing, information technology, or other costs than our existing products, or lower market acceptance, which could negatively impact our gross margins and operating results. As the technological complexity of our products increases, the infrastructure to support our products, such as our design and manufacturing processes and technical support for our products, may also become more complex. Accordingly, if we fail to effectively manage introductions of new or advanced products, our business may be adversely affected.

If medical research were to lead to the discovery of alternative therapies or technologies that address seizure, status epilepticus or other indications we intend to expand into in a way that is or is perceived to be more accurate, reliable, cost-effective, or otherwise improved relative to the Ceribell System, for example through alternative monitoring or testing technologies, medication, or therapies, the demand for our products could decrease significantly, leading to a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations, and prospects.

Diagnostic tests performed with the Ceribell System are generally reimbursed under existing physician and hospital codes. Our ability to increase sales of the Ceribell System depends, in significant part, on the availability of adequate coverage and reimbursement from third-party payers, including governmental payers (such as the Medicare and Medicaid programs in the United States), managed care organizations, and private health insurers. Third-party payers decide which diagnostic tests they will cover and establish reimbursement rates for those tests. We do not bill any third-party payers for the Ceribell System. Instead, we invoice healthcare providers and the cost is bundled into the reimbursement received by healthcare providers for the tests using the Ceribell System. We expect the Ceribell System will continue to be purchased by hospitals who will then seek reimbursement from third-party payers. Reimbursement for the hospital services during an inpatient stay generally is made under a prospective payment system that is determined by a classification system known as diagnosis-related groups, which are assigned using a number of factors including the principal diagnosis, major procedures, discharged status, patient age, and complicating secondary diagnoses, among other things. In August 2023, CMS approved an NTAP under the Medicare inpatient prospective payment system for our newest Clarity algorithm, effective October 1, 2023. In August 2026, CMS granted an NTAP under the Medicare inpatient prospective payment system for eligible Medicare patient cases utilizing our Delirium Monitor System, effective October 1, 2026. The NTAP designation for a product lasts for no more than three years for a specific indication. Once an applicable NTAP expires or our products are otherwise no longer eligible for such NTAP, our customers may no longer receive additional reimbursement to offset the costs associated with the use of our products, which could adversely affect their profit margins. In light of the potential unreimbursed costs, some of our target customers may be unwilling to adopt our products and some of our existing customers may terminate their contracts with us. While third-party payers currently cover and provide reimbursement for tests using the Ceribell System, we can give no assurance that these third-party payers will continue to provide coverage and adequate reimbursement, or that current reimbursement levels for the tests will continue. Third-party payers, whether foreign or domestic, or governmental or commercial, are developing increasingly sophisticated methods of controlling healthcare costs. In addition, no uniform policy of coverage and reimbursement for tests using our products exists among third-party payers. Therefore, coverage and reimbursement for tests using our products can differ significantly from payer to payer. Other competitive products may be more widely covered or subject to different reimbursement policies and requirements, which could impact demand for our products. Furthermore, the overall amount of reimbursement available for EEG monitoring and seizure diagnosis could decrease in the future. We cannot be sure that the reimbursement amounts available for hospital services and tests using the Ceribell System will not reduce or otherwise negatively impact the demand for our products. Further, coverage policies and third-party reimbursement rates may change at any time. Even if favorable coverage and reimbursement status is attained, less favorable coverage policies and reimbursement rates may be implemented in the future. Failure by users of the Ceribell System to obtain adequate reimbursement for these tests would have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations, and prospects.

We conduct our own clinical studies and provide support for third party–initiated trials that evaluate different aspects of the Ceribell System. Clinical testing is difficult to design and implement, can take many years, can be expensive, and carries uncertain outcomes. The results of preclinical studies and clinical trials of our products conducted to date and ongoing or future studies and trials of our current, planned, or future products may not be predictive of the results of later clinical trials or real-world performance, and interim results of a clinical trial do not necessarily predict final results. The data and results from our clinical studies do not ensure that we will achieve similar results in future clinical trials, are not head to head studies and not directly comparable with each other, as they have different sample sizes, designs, limitations, assumptions, and objectives, and are conducted on different patient populations at different sites by different researchers. In addition, as some of these studies are prospective studies, they may not reflect real-world performance. Some of our studies have not been peer reviewed or published, and peer reviewers may disagree with the methodologies or conclusions of such studies and may not deem them worthy of publication. In addition, preclinical and clinical data are often susceptible to various interpretations and analyses, and many companies that have believed their products performed satisfactorily in preclinical studies and earlier clinical trials have nonetheless failed to replicate results in later clinical trials, or have viewed such data in different ways than regulators. The risk that future trials and studies of the Ceribell System fail to replicate positive results observed to date is increased because most of our studies and trials are conducted on small samples, not powered for statistical significance, controlled for other clinical variables, or have other design limitations and almost all such studies were conducted or sponsored by us. Independent studies with larger samples or different designs may not replicate results observed to date. In addition, the performance of the Clarity algorithm is typically evaluated by comparing the algorithm results to a retrospective review of the EEG by a panel of neurologists. There is a high degree of inter-rater variability in the interpretation of EEGs by clinicians, such that Ceribell System study results may vary from study to study depending on the size and composition of the neurologist panel. Clinical studies or investigations on the Ceribell System have produced, and may in the future produce, negative or inconclusive results. Furthermore, others, including healthcare professionals and regulators, may perceive a conflict of interest with studies supported, sponsored, or funded by us or conducted by our employees or consultants, and may not find results of such studies to be compelling or credible. As a result of the foregoing, we may decide, or regulators may require us, to conduct additional clinical and nonclinical testing in addition to those we have planned. The initiation and completion of clinical studies may be prevented, delayed, or halted for numerous reasons. We may experience delays in our clinical trials for a number of reasons, which could adversely affect the costs, timing, or successful completion of our clinical trials, including related to the following: - regulators may disagree as to the design or implementation of our clinical trials;- regulators and/or institutional review boards ("IRBs"), or other bodies may not authorize us or our investigators to commence a clinical trial, or to conduct or continue a clinical trial at a prospective or specific trial site;- we may not reach agreement on acceptable terms with third-party researchers, clinical trial sites, or prospective contract research organizations ("CROs"), the terms of which can be subject to extensive negotiation and may vary significantly among different researchers, trial sites, and CROs;- the number of subjects or patients required for clinical trials may be larger than we anticipate, enrollment in these clinical trials may be insufficient or slower than we anticipate, and the number of clinical trials being conducted at any given time may be high and result in fewer available patients for any given clinical trial, or patients may drop out of these clinical trials at a higher rate than we anticipate;- our third-party contractors may fail to comply with regulatory requirements or meet their contractual obligations to us in a timely manner or at all;- we might have to suspend or terminate clinical trials for various reasons, including occurrence of adverse events or other findings that the subjects in our clinical trials are being exposed to unacceptable health risks;- we may have to amend clinical trial protocols or conduct additional studies to reflect changes in regulatory requirements or guidance, which we may be required to submit to an IRB, or other bodies and/or regulatory authorities for re-examination;- regulators, IRBs, other bodies, or other parties may require or recommend that we or our investigators suspend or terminate clinical research for various reasons, including safety signals or noncompliance with regulatory requirements;- the cost of clinical trials may be greater than we anticipate;- clinical sites may not adhere to the clinical protocol or may drop out of a clinical trial;- we may be unable to recruit a sufficient number of clinical trial sites;- regulators, IRBs, or other bodies may fail to approve or subsequently find fault with our manufacturing processes or facilities of third-party manufacturers with which we enter into agreements for clinical and commercial supplies, the supply of devices or other materials necessary to conduct clinical trials may be insufficient, inadequate or not available at an acceptable cost, or we may experience interruptions in supply;- marketing authorization or regulations of FDA may change in a manner rendering our clinical data insufficient for marketing authorization;- we may be required to submit an investigational device exemption ("IDE") application to the FDA, which must become effective prior to commencing certain human clinical trials of medical devices, and the FDA may reject our IDE application and notify us that we may not begin clinical trials, or place restrictions on the conduct of such trials; similar requirements may apply in foreign jurisdictions; and - our current or future products may have undesirable side effects or other unexpected characteristics. Any of these occurrences may significantly harm our business, financial condition, results of operations, and prospects. In addition, many of the factors that cause, or lead to, a delay in the commencement or completion of clinical trials may also ultimately lead to the denial of marketing authorization of any medical device. Patient enrollment in clinical trials, and completion of patient follow-up, if applicable, depend on many factors, including the size of the patient population, the nature of the trial protocol, the eligibility criteria for the clinical trial, competing clinical trials, and clinicians' and patients' perceptions as to the potential advantages of the product being studied. Patients participating in our clinical trials may drop out before completion of the trial or experience adverse medical events unrelated to an investigational device. Delays in patient enrollment or failure of patients to continue to participate in a clinical trial may delay commencement or completion of the clinical trial, cause an increase in the costs of the clinical trial and delays, or result in the failure of the clinical trial. Clinical trials must be conducted in accordance with the laws and regulations of the FDA and other applicable regulatory authorities' legal requirements, regulations, or guidelines, and are subject to oversight by these governmental agencies and IRBs, or other bodies at the medical institutions where the clinical trials are conducted. In addition, clinical trials must be conducted with supplies of our devices produced under current good manufacturing practice ("cGMP") or similar foreign requirements, and other regulations applicable to the location where the clinical trial is conducted. We rely on third-party researchers and clinical trial sites, and may in the future rely on CROs, to ensure the proper and timely conduct of our clinical trials, and while we have agreements governing their committed activities, we have limited influence over their actual performance. We depend on these third parties to conduct our clinical trials in compliance with good clinical practice ("GCP"), requirements. To the extent they fail to enroll participants for our clinical trials, fail to conduct the study to GCP standards or are delayed for a significant time in the execution of trials, including achieving full enrollment, we may be affected by increased costs, trial delays or both. In addition, if we conduct clinical trials in other countries in the future, we may be subject to further delays and expenses as a result of increased shipment costs and additional regulatory requirements, and the engagement of non-U.S. third-party contractors may expose us to risks associated with clinical investigators who are unknown to the FDA, and different standards of diagnosis, screening, and medical care. See the risk factor titled, "We rely on third parties to conduct and support our preclinical studies and clinical trials. These third parties may not properly and successfully carry out their contractual duties or meet expected deadlines, which could harm our ability to obtain marketing authorization of or commercialize future products we develop."

From time to time, we may publicly disclose interim, top-line or preliminary data from our clinical trials, which is based on a preliminary analysis of then-available data, and the results and related findings and conclusions are subject to change following a more comprehensive review of the data related to the particular trial or additional data collected at a later time. We also make assumptions, estimations, calculations, and conclusions as part of our analyses of data, and we may not have received or had the opportunity to fully and carefully evaluate all data. As a result, the interim, top-line, or preliminary results that we report may differ from future results of the same trial, or different conclusions or considerations may qualify such results, once additional data have been received and fully evaluated. Interim, top-line, or preliminary data also remain subject to audit and verification procedures that may result in the final data being materially different from the interim, top-line, or preliminary data we previously announced. As a result, interim, top-line, and preliminary data should be viewed with caution until the final data are available. Adverse differences between interim data and final data could significantly harm our business prospects. Further, disclosure of interim data by us or by our competitors could result in volatility in our share price. Further, others, including regulatory agencies or other bodies, may not accept or agree with our assumptions, estimates, calculations, conclusions, or analyses or may interpret or weigh the importance of data differently, which could impact the value of the particular trial, or the approvability or potential for commercialization of the particular medical device. In addition, the information we choose to publicly disclose regarding a particular study or clinical trial is based on what is typically extensive information, and others may not agree with what we determine is material or otherwise appropriate information to include in our disclosure. The interim, top-line, or preliminary data that we report may differ from final results, and regulatory authorities and other bodies may disagree with the conclusions reached, which may harm our ability to obtain marketing authorization for, and commercialize, our future products, which could harm our business, financial condition, results of operations, and prospects.