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First Busey (BUSE) AI Stock Analysis

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BUSE

First Busey

(NASDAQ:BUSE)

Select Model
Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:$31.00â–²(7.12% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:11/06/26

BUSE scores as moderately attractive, led by solid financial performance (strong profitability, improving leverage, and good cash conversion) and supportive valuation (reasonable P/E and a ~3.6% dividend yield). The main constraint is weaker technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD), while recent corporate updates are broadly positive but include a credit-related provision uptick to monitor.

Positive Factors
Strong profitability and cash conversionHigh operating and net margins indicate that BUSE is converting its banking and financial-services revenue into substantial earnings. Free cash flow close to net income further supports earnings quality, providing resources for capital returns, balance-sheet support, and continued investment over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Inconsistent revenue growth and margin pressureThe recent revenue decline shows that BUSE’s growth trajectory is not consistently expanding, despite strong current profitability. Margin normalization from earlier highs may reflect pressure from the rate, credit, or funding cycle, making future earnings growth less predictable over the medium term.

First Busey (BUSE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%BUSE+29.72%SPY+14.28%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
$2.37B
Dividend Yield
3.59%
Average Volume (3M)
771.03K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
11.8
Beta (1Y)
0.72
Revenue Growth
17.34%
EPS Growth
112.83%
Country
US
Employees
1,833
Sector
Financial
Sector Strength
68
Industry
Banks - Regional

First Busey Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

First Busey Corporation operates as the parent entity for Busey Bank, delivering a comprehensive suite of banking and financial services throughout the United States. Its diverse clientele includes individual consumers, corporate entities, institutio...

How the Company Makes Money

First Busey makes money primarily through its banking operations, supplemented by fee-based financial services. 1) Net interest income (core banking earnings): The largest driver for most banks is the spread between interest earned on loans and inves...

First Busey Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Above-average fundamentals: strong TTM profitability (operating and net margins ~25%), improving leverage (debt-to-equity down materially), and solid earnings quality with free cash flow close to net income (~0.97x). Offsets include a recent TTM revenue dip and some volatility risk from balance-sheet-driven cash-flow movements.

Income Statement

72Positive

Balance Sheet

78Positive

Cash Flow

69Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue924.48M1.04B662.51M600.59M486.60M431.60M
Gross Profit606.30M666.84M452.86M438.27M445.43M418.60M
EBITDA248.99M216.27M173.86M176.61M187.39M185.00M
Net Income229.75M135.26M113.69M122.56M128.31M123.45M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets18.56B18.10B12.05B12.28B12.34B12.86B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments4.28B181.04M1.93B2.81B2.69B4.82B
Total Debt456.91M490.06M469.19M523.58M917.70M638.82M
Total Liabilities16.30B15.64B10.66B11.01B11.19B11.54B
Stockholders Equity2.26B2.47B1.38B1.27B1.15B1.32B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow223.37M172.95M171.84M163.86M160.80M156.97M
Operating Cash Flow236.41M192.57M178.27M173.39M165.79M162.01M
Investing Cash Flow100.74M1.10B657.90M550.99M-290.86M-829.19M
Financing Cash Flow174.26M-1.69B-858.09M-231.96M-483.86M814.74M

First Busey Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNeutral
Last Price28.94

Price Trends

50DMA29.51Negative
100DMA29.62Negative
200DMA27.63Positive

Market Momentum

MACD-0.14Positive
RSI47.75Neutral
STOCH30.69Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BUSE, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 28.94 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.35, below the 50-day MA of 29.51, and above the 200-day MA of 27.63, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BUSE.

First Busey Risk Analysis

First Busey disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. First Busey reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

3 New Risks
1.Financial statements are created, in part, using estimates, assumptions, and management judgments, which, if incorrect, could result in material misstatement and adverse effect on Busey's financial position.Q4, 2025
2.Busey may face challenges accessing contingent liquidity during times of market stress.Q4, 2025
3.Credit exposure to the energy industry may increase Busey's vulnerability to sector-specific volatility.Q4, 2025

First Busey Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

BUSE against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
FBNCFBNC78Outperform$2.68B16.379.70%1.46%13.98%65.92%
BANRBANR75Outperform$2.54B11.7410.07%2.97%1.56%7.14%
SYBTSYBT74Outperform$2.50B15.2613.53%1.62%9.59%13.15%
EFSCEFSC72Outperform$2.23B12.469.35%2.14%2.12%-3.12%
BUSEBUSE69Neutral$2.34B11.769.65%3.59%17.34%112.83%
Sector *68Neutral$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
FRMEFRME67Neutral$2.58B12.687.54%3.55%7.98%-19.33%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%10%20%30%40%BUSEBANREFSCFBNCFRMESYBTDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
BUSE and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
BUSEFirst Busey28.946.7830.57%
BANRBanner Corp.69.369.7216.29%
EFSCEnterprise Financial Services62.5310.8020.88%
FBNCFirst Bancorp (FBNC)64.9815.8132.16%
FRMEFirst Merchants41.076.2417.91%
SYBTStock Yards Bancorp, Inc.79.6413.8521.06%

First Busey Corporate Events

Dividends

First Busey Declares Quarterly Preferred Stock Cash Dividend

Positive
Nov 6, 2026

On November 6, 2026, First Busey Corporation declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.515625 per depositary share on its 8.25% Fixed-Rate Series B Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock. The dividend was scheduled to be payable on December 1, 2026,...

Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures

First Busey Reports Solid Q3 2026 Earnings Performance

Positive
Oct 27, 2026

On October 27, 2026, First Busey reported third quarter 2026 net income of $55.8 million, or diluted EPS of $0.61, with adjusted EPS of $0.63, as operating revenue held stable at $194.3 million and wealth management revenue rose 15.5% year over year....

Business Operations and StrategyDividends

First Busey Declares Quarterly Dividend, Signals Ongoing Stability

Positive
Oct 13, 2026

On October 13, 2026, First Busey Corporation declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.26 per share on its outstanding common stock, continuing its pattern of shareholder distributions. The dividend was scheduled to be paid on October 30, 2026, to sto...

Business Operations and StrategyDividends

First Busey Declares Quarterly Dividend on Series B Preferred

Positive
Aug 7, 2026

On August 7, 2026, First Busey Corporation declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.515625 per depositary share on its 8.25% Fixed-Rate Series B Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock. The dividend, scheduled to be paid on September 1, 2026, to sha...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 06, 2026