TopBuild Corp (BLD)
NYSE:BLD
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TopBuild
(NYSE:BLD)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$443.00
▲(7.97% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/05/26
The score is primarily supported by solid profitability and strong free-cash-flow generation, partially offset by higher leverage and evidence of slowing growth/margin normalization. Technicals are neutral-to-weak versus longer-term moving averages, while valuation is reasonable but lacks dividend support. Deal-related corporate events add upside potential from the QXO combination but also introduce material execution/approval risk.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Generation
Consistent, high free cash flow (roughly $0.7B and ~0.92x net income) underpins durable self‑funding for operations, M&A and capital returns. Strong cash conversion enhances resilience across housing cycles and supports strategic investments without sole reliance on external financing.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Leverage moving from ~0.6–0.9 historically to ~1.3+ materially reduces financial flexibility. Higher debt ratios increase interest and refinancing risk during downturns, constrain capital allocation choices and make the company more sensitive to margin or revenue shocks over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Generation
Consistent, high free cash flow (roughly $0.7B and ~0.92x net income) underpins durable self‑funding for operations, M&A and capital returns. Strong cash conversion enhances resilience across housing cycles and supports strategic investments without sole reliance on external financing.
Read all positive factors
TopBuild Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Product
Breaks down revenue generated from individual products, providing insight into product performance, market demand, and potential areas for expansion or innovation.
Breaks down revenue generated from individual products, providing insight into product performance, market demand, and potential areas for expansion or innovation.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTopBuild (BLD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$11.95B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)788.92K
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.7
Beta (1Y)0.97
Revenue Growth6.38%
EPS Growth-9.90%
CountryUS
Employees13,984
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryEngineering & Construction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)17.90
Shares Outstanding28,024,569
10 Day Avg. Volume934,871
30 Day Avg. Volume788,923
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.26
Price to Book (P/B)5.03
Price to Sales (P/S)2.15
P/FCF Ratio16.72
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.21
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.57
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.92
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.55
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$479.60Price Target Upside16.89% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)18.18
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.08B
TopBuild Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TopBuild Corp., operating under the ticker BLD, specializes in both installing and distributing insulation alongside a diverse range of other construction materials for the building sector. The company primarily functions through two distinct divi...
How the Company Makes Money
TopBuild makes money primarily by selling and installing insulation and related building products. Its revenue model is organized around two main streams: (1) Installation services: The company earns revenue by contracting to install insulation (a...
TopBuild Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call reflects a mixed but balanced picture: strong financial engineering and M&A-driven revenue growth, robust free cash flow generation, share repurchases and a healthy liquidity position are offset by meaningful organic volume declines, margin pressure and embedded price/cost headwinds. Management emphasizes disciplined cost actions, active M&A pipeline and confidence in synergy delivery, but the near-term outlook remains cautious given residential market headwinds.Positive Updates
Quarterly and Full-Year Revenue Growth
Q4 sales grew 13.2% year-over-year to $1.49 billion; full-year revenue exceeded $5.4 billion.
Negative Updates
Organic Volume Weakness
Overall volume declined 10.5% in the quarter; Installation Services volume fell 14.5% and Specialty Distribution volume declined 5.5%, driven by persistent softness in residential and light commercial end markets.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly and Full-Year Revenue Growth
Q4 sales grew 13.2% year-over-year to $1.49 billion; full-year revenue exceeded $5.4 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
TopBuild guided 2026 sales of $5.925 billion to $6.225 billion (midpoint $6.075 billion) and adjusted EBITDA of $1.005 billion to $1.155 billion (midpoint $1.08 billion), assuming overall price and volume each down low-single digits, residential (≈52% of sales) down mid-single digits, commercial & industrial (≈48%) up low single digits, and $800 million–$850 million of revenue from recent M&A; the EBITDA outlook assumes a ~27% decremental on lower volumes, $55 million of price/cost headwinds, M&A EBITDA in the mid‑teens inclusive of $15 million of Progressive/SPI synergies (on track to meet or exceed 2‑year targets), quarterly sales of $1.4 billion–$1.6 billion with EBITDA margins of 16.5%–18.5% (Q1 weakest, Q3 strongest), interest & other of $143 million–$149 million, a tax rate of ~26%, capex of 1%–2% of sales, and working capital of 15%–17% of sales.TopBuild Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.62B | 5.41B | 5.33B | 5.19B | 5.01B | 3.49B |
| Gross Profit | 1.62B | 1.57B | 1.62B | 1.60B | 1.49B | 974.39M |
| EBITDA | 991.03M | 1.08B | 1.05B | 1.03B | 922.19M | 541.98M |
| Net Income | 503.16M | 521.73M | 622.60M | 614.25M | 555.99M | 324.02M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.71B | 6.73B | 4.74B | 5.16B | 4.61B | 4.26B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 268.85M | 184.74M | 400.32M | 848.57M | 240.07M | 139.78M |
| Total Debt | 3.13B | 3.15B | 1.58B | 1.64B | 1.68B | 1.68B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.31B | 4.42B | 2.53B | 2.60B | 2.68B | 2.62B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.40B | 2.32B | 2.21B | 2.56B | 1.93B | 1.64B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 704.43M | 696.89M | 706.68M | 785.41M | 419.42M | 347.48M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 764.47M | 756.32M | 776.03M | 849.41M | 495.80M | 403.02M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.02B | -1.99B | -203.52M | -198.17M | -93.91M | -1.32B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.21B | 1.02B | -1.02B | -43.84M | -300.07M | 729.01M |
TopBuild Technical Analysis
Positive
410.31
Price Trends
418.83
Positive
425.57
Positive
428.79
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.02
Negative
57.74
Neutral
77.39
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BLD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 410.31 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 410.58, below the 50-day MA of 418.83, and below the 200-day MA of 428.79, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BLD.
TopBuild Risk Analysis
TopBuild disclosed 52 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TopBuild reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
TopBuild Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $26.32B | 74.12 | 32.77% | ― | 36.96% | 31.00% | |
79 Outperform | $67.38B | 55.58 | 51.69% | 0.20% | 38.43% | 107.64% | |
73 Outperform | $13.71B | 43.95 | 18.85% | ― | 29.76% | 33.40% | |
72 Outperform | $30.00B | 64.50 | 14.53% | ― | 22.59% | 111.23% | |
67 Neutral | $11.95B | 23.71 | 22.15% | ― | 6.38% | -9.90% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
50 Neutral | $7.49B | 25.92 | 8.12% | ― | -8.32% | -87.53% |
* Industrials Sector Average
BLD
TopBuild
426.51
110.48
34.96%
FIX
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1,469.51
295.14%
DY
Dycom
456.65
222.65
95.15%
FLR
Fluor
53.66
4.02
8.10%
MTZ
MasTec
379.66
215.95
131.91%
STRL
Sterling Infrastructure
861.88
643.91
295.41%
TopBuild Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
TopBuild Sets Election Deadline in QXO Acquisition Deal
Positive
Jun 4, 2026
On June 4, 2026, QXO and TopBuild announced that TopBuild shareholders have until 5:00 p.m. Eastern on June 29, 2026 to choose the form of consideration they will receive in QXO’s acquisition of TopBuild. Investors can elect either $505 in c...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
TopBuild Ties Note Redemption to Pending QXO Acquisition
Negative
May 29, 2026
On May 29, 2026, TopBuild Corp. elected to exercise its optional redemption right to redeem the entire $400 million outstanding principal of its 3.625% Senior Notes due 2029, setting July 1, 2026 as the redemption date at par plus accrued interest...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
TopBuild Reports Strong Q1 Growth and QXO Combination Plans
Positive
May 5, 2026
TopBuild reported that for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, sales rose 17.2% year over year to $1.45 billion, largely driven by its 2025 acquisitions of SPI and Progressive Roofing, even as residential and light commercial new construction ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
TopBuild Sets Q1 2026 Release Amid QXO Acquisition
Neutral
Apr 28, 2026
TopBuild Corp. announced that it will release its first quarter 2026 financial results before 7:00 a.m. Eastern time on Tuesday, May 5, 2026, providing the market with an early view of its performance for the period. However, following the QXO acq...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
TopBuild Shareholders Approve Directors, Auditor and Pay
Positive
Apr 27, 2026
On April 27, 2026, TopBuild Corp. held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where investors voted on the election of directors, ratification of the independent auditor, and executive compensation. Shareholders re-elected all eight director nominees...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
QXO to Acquire TopBuild in $17 Billion Merger
Positive
Apr 20, 2026
On April 18, 2026, TopBuild entered into a definitive merger agreement under which QXO will acquire the insulation distributor in a transaction valuing TopBuild at about $17 billion. The deal, unanimously approved by both boards and announced publ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.