Blue Bird (BLBD) Q3 2026 Earnings Report

The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial performance with record Q3 adjusted EBITDA, revenue growth year-to-date, raised full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance, robust liquidity, and strategic growth moves (Micro Bird consolidation and a major collaboration with Ford). Headwinds discussed were largely related to acquisition consolidation effects (margin compression), seasonal working capital build, policy/tariff volatility, and the execution and investment risk associated with entering the Class 5-6 chassis market. Overall, the highlights (record profitability, guidance raise, strategic expansions, EV leadership, and solid liquidity) substantially outweigh the manageable lowlights.

Blue Bird raised and clarified fiscal and multi‑year guidance: for fiscal 2026 it expects revenue of $1.74–$1.76 billion (≈$1.75B midpoint) with adjusted EBITDA of $245–$250 million (raised to $247M, ≈14% margin) and adjusted free cash flow of $125–$135 million (roughly 50% of adjusted EBITDA); Q4 is expected at about 14% adjusted EBITDA margin despite a small unit reduction, and up to $5M of extraordinary CapEx (Blue Bird’s 50% fiscal ’26 portion) is anticipated related to the new plant (DOE MESC grant partially funds it). Looking out, pro forma 2026/27 (with full Micro Bird consolidation) implies ≈$2.0B revenue and ≈$260M adjusted EBITDA (~13%), the new Ford/Detroit chassis initiative carries a 2027 investment of ≈$90M (≈$50M CapEx) with a path to ~10,000 units by 2030 and >$100M long‑run EBITDA at 14–15%, medium‑term EBITDA target of ~$275M (≈13.5%), and a long‑term objective of roughly $3.0B revenue and $400–$500M+ adjusted EBITDA (≈14.5–15%+); management also plans to refinance/expand the credit facility by year‑end 2026, maintain leverage <2.0x adjusted EBITDA, and has ≈$90M remaining on its buyback program.