Bank of Ireland Group (BKRIY) AI Stock Analysis

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Bank of Ireland Group

(Other OTC:BKRIY)

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Rating:70Outperform

Price Target:$24.00▲(10.24% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:08/31/26

Overall score is driven primarily by solid financial performance with improved leverage, tempered by meaningful volatility in revenues and especially cash flows. Technicals are supportive with an improving longer-term trend, and valuation is attractive with a reasonable P/E and a solid dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Strong Recent ProfitabilityThe return to substantial profitability indicates stronger earnings capacity and improved operating resilience. Sustained profits can support capital formation, lending growth, regulatory requirements and shareholder distributions, provided performance remains stable across the cycle.

Negative Factors

Revenue VolatilityLarge year-to-year revenue movements reduce earnings visibility and make long-term planning less predictable. For a bank dependent on interest spreads, loan volumes and treasury income, this volatility can complicate expense management and capital allocation.

Bank of Ireland Group (BKRIY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $20.57B
Dividend Yield: 4.38%
Average Volume (3M): 24.97K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.5
Beta (1Y): 0.76
Revenue Growth: 9.02%
EPS Growth: 22.19%
Country: US
Employees: 11,287
Sector: Financial
Sector Strength: 68
Industry: Banks - Regional

Bank of Ireland Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Bank of Ireland Group plc, founded in Dublin, Ireland in 1783, offers an extensive array of banking and financial services. The organization is structured into four main operational segments: Retail Ireland, Wealth and Insurance, Retail UK, and Corpo...

How the Company Makes Money

Bank of Ireland Group primarily makes money through (1) net interest income, (2) non-interest income (fees and commissions), and (3) other income related to treasury, markets and balance-sheet management. Net interest income is typically the largest...

Bank of Ireland Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 02, 2026(Q4-2025)|% Change Since:14.90%|Next Earnings Date:Mar 01, 2021

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call presents a constructive and growth-oriented strategic plan centered on a dominant Irish franchise, strong balance sheet momentum, upgraded NII trajectory, robust AUM growth and ambitious efficiency targets. Management balanced growth with prudence (raising CET1 guidance to ~14.5%) and disclosed large one-off charges (EUR 430m non-core, EUR 153m restructuring) and some near-term headwinds (FX, rate moves, deleveraging impacts, IRB scalers, interchange changes). Execution risk is concentrated on realizing EUR 250m of efficiencies, integrating digital/AI investments and recouping capital impacts from IRB scalers. Overall, the positives around earnings growth, capital generation and strategic clarity outweigh the disclosed lowlights.

Positive Updates

Strong Irish Franchise and Market Position

Unrivaled position across Mortgages, Everyday Banking, Corporate & Commercial Lending and Wealth & Insurance in Ireland; >40% share of new mortgage lending for the third year running; 2.2 million Irish retail customers and ~150,000 affluent customers to target cross-sell.

Negative Updates

Large Non-Core and Restructuring Charges

Non-core charge of EUR 430m in 2025 (majority relates to U.K. Motor Finance) and restructuring costs of EUR 153m; from 2026 restructuring costs will be presented above the line, impacting reported operating results.

Company Guidance

The management provided detailed three‑year guidance: they expect income to grow at a CAGR of >4% to >€4.75bn by 2028, NII to rise to ~€3.4bn in 2026 (above the high €3.3s), >€3.6bn in 2027 and >€3.85bn in 2028 (with potential to reach ~€4.0bn after 2028), fee income to grow ~4% p.a. (W&I fee income up 12% in 2025 and W&I now ≈50% of fees), AUM to grow ~10% p.a. from €60bn to >€75bn by 2028 (€100bn target by 2030), loans ~4% p.a. and deposits ~3% p.a. (Irish loans/deposits both +6% in 2025; Irish mortgage book ~5% p.a. and >40% share of new lending), total costs broadly stable at ~€2.2bn with underlying operating expense growth ~2% in 2026 and EUR250m of identified efficiencies (targeting mid‑40s cost/income by 2028, ~6pp improvement from 52%), staff down ~3% p.a., impairment/cost of risk 23bps in 2025 (EUR193m) and guided to low‑ to mid‑20bps, NPE 2.2% (end 2025), capital generation 270bps in 2025 and expected ~250–260bps p.a. (net organic cap gen ≈€3.7bn over the plan), reported CET1 15.1% after €1.2bn distributions, new CET1 guidance ~14.5% (target operating level), distributions for 2025 €1.2bn (100% payout; DPS €0.70, +11%, plus €530m buyback) with a progressive dividend and a ~50% payout target over the cycle, and structural hedge tailwinds (average hedge yield up to 1.89% in 2025, exit 1.98%; fixed‑leg income +10% in 2026; gross hedge benefit ≈€0.5bn over three years).

Bank of Ireland Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability is solid with strong recent net income and a sharp revenue rebound in 2025, and leverage has improved versus earlier years. The main risk is volatility: revenue and operating results have fluctuated, and cash flows were highly inconsistent (including negative OCF/FCF in 2023), reducing predictability despite a strong 2024–2025 rebound.

Income Statement

72Positive

Balance Sheet

70Positive

Cash Flow

58Neutral

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.34B	6.09B	4.46B	7.11B	2.96B	3.19B
Gross Profit	4.47B	4.21B	4.46B	4.09B	2.96B	3.19B
EBITDA	1.85B	1.72B	2.17B	2.21B	1.25B	1.47B
Net Income	1.39B	1.20B	1.53B	1.59B	850.00M	1.05B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	168.53B	164.80B	161.81B	155.71B	151.32B	155.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	20.51B	24.27B	33.55B	31.49B	38.10B	32.82B
Total Debt	12.86B	10.52B	10.22B	13.15B	12.45B	23.54B
Total Liabilities	156.70B	151.88B	148.80B	143.15B	139.39B	143.93B
Stockholders Equity	11.82B	12.92B	13.01B	12.56B	11.46B	11.27B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	7.27B	3.52B	2.12B	-4.80B	3.63B	19.44B
Operating Cash Flow	7.74B	3.99B	2.64B	-4.39B	3.73B	19.76B
Investing Cash Flow	-9.34B	-12.45B	-557.00M	-960.00M	4.69B	842.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.19B	-1.22B	-1.48B	-811.00M	-2.67B	293.00M

Bank of Ireland Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive

Last Price21.77

Price Trends

50DMA21.66Positive

100DMA21.22Positive

200DMA20.07Positive

Market Momentum

MACD0.08Negative

RSI55.67Neutral

STOCH94.53Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BKRIY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 21.77 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.94, above the 50-day MA of 21.66, and above the 200-day MA of 20.07, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.53 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BKRIY.

Bank of Ireland Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

BKRIY against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HBAN	72Outperform	$31.92B	12.31	8.19%	3.90%	24.22%	-14.23%
MTB	71Outperform	$31.64B	11.46	10.65%	2.72%	-0.10%	18.13%
BKRIY	70Outperform	$20.14B	14.53	11.12%	4.38%	9.02%	22.19%
CFG	69Neutral	$27.17B	13.08	8.74%	2.91%	3.81%	39.34%
KEY	69Neutral	$22.53B	11.71	10.88%	3.82%	8.77%	125.21%
Sector *	68Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
RF	53Neutral	$24.36B	11.10	12.32%	3.82%	0.54%	12.74%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

BKRIY and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
BKRIY	Bank of Ireland Group Plc Unsponsored ADR	21.77	3.93	22.05%
HBAN	Huntington Bancshares	15.88	0.75	4.97%
KEY	KeyCorp	21.44	4.52	26.69%
MTB	M&T Bank Corporation	220.19	39.00	21.53%
RF	Regions Financial Corp.	28.64	4.65	19.38%
CFG	Citizens Financial Group	65.38	15.13	30.10%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 31, 2026

Bank of Ireland Group AI Stock Analysis