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Boise Cascade (BCC) AI Stock Analysis
Boise Cascade
(NYSE:BCC)
The score is anchored by a solid, low-leverage balance sheet but held back by meaningfully reduced profitability and weaker cash conversion versus peak years. Technicals are mildly bearish with the stock below major moving averages, while valuation and yield look only moderately supportive. The latest earnings call adds caution due to softer Q4 guidance and cost/channel headwinds, partially offset by year-over-year operating improvements and progress on the supplier transition.
Boise Cascade (BCC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $2.71B
- Dividend Yield
- 1.14%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 332.11K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 22.7
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.79
- Revenue Growth
- 1.23%
- EPS Growth
- -32.99%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 7,740
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Sector Strength
- 61
- Industry
- Paper, Lumber & Forest Products
Boise Cascade Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Boise Cascade Company (BCC) is a prominent producer of timber goods and a distributor of construction supplies, operating across both the United States and Canada. Its operations are primarily structured into two distinct divisions: Wood Products and...
How the Company Makes Money
Boise Cascade makes money mainly by (1) manufacturing and selling wood-based structural building products and (2) distributing third-party building materials (and some internally produced wood products) to construction supply channels. 1) Building Ma...
Boise Cascade Earnings Call Summary
The call was balanced. The company delivered higher consolidated sales, net income, EPS, Wood Products EBITDA, plywood pricing, and strong Hardie siding growth, while making expected progress on its major supplier transition and continuing shareholder returns. However, these positives were offset by declining housing activity, lower BMD margins and EBITDA, elevated fuel and transportation costs, channel destocking, supplier-transition-related decking weakness, and a lower fourth-quarter outlook for both BMD and Wood Products.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
For the fourth quarter, Boise Cascade estimates BMD EBITDA will be between $35 million and $45 million, gross margins will be between 14% and 14.75%, and the daily sales pace may be about $22 million a day, “maybe even a little softer”; Wood Products EBITDA is estimated to be between $10 million and $20 million, with sequential volumes expected to decline high teen to mid-20%, EWP pricing expected to increase slightly on a sequential basis, plywood volumes expected to decline mid to high single digits sequentially, quarter-to-date plywood realizations approximately 5% above the third quarter average, and per-unit manufacturing costs expected to increase primarily due to lower volumes and higher resin and OSB web stock costs; the effective tax rate is anticipated to be approximately 5%; 2026 capital spending is reduced to $120 million-$140 million; and early industry projections for 2027 indicate housing starts are expected to decline mid-single digits from 2026 levels.
Boise Cascade Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Balance sheet strength (low leverage and substantial equity) supports resilience, but profitability and returns have materially compressed versus 2021–2023 and TTM net margin remains thin (~1.8%). Cash generation is positive with rebound in FCF versus 2025, yet cash conversion is weaker than prior years and underscores cyclicality.
Income Statement
52NeutralBalance Sheet
76PositiveCash Flow
58Neutral| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.59B | 6.40B | 6.72B | 6.84B | 8.39B | 7.93B |
| Gross Profit | 1.06B | 895.67M | 1.33B | 1.43B | 1.91B | 1.63B |
| EBITDA | 363.76M | 351.60M | 673.23M | 805.96M | 1.28B | 1.06B |
| Net Income | 120.31M | 132.84M | 376.35M | 483.66M | 857.66M | 712.49M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.41B | 3.24B | 3.37B | 3.46B | 3.24B | 2.57B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 385.15M | 477.21M | 713.26M | 949.57M | 998.34M | 748.91M |
| Total Debt | 549.53M | 522.21M | 516.22M | 529.79M | 523.08M | 531.79M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.36B | 1.17B | 1.22B | 1.26B | 1.18B | 1.22B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.05B | 2.07B | 2.15B | 2.20B | 2.06B | 1.35B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 133.00M | 12.72M | 208.75M | 472.02M | 927.10M | 560.47M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 277.34M | 254.15M | 438.32M | 687.46M | 1.04B | 666.98M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -176.46M | -263.26M | -237.82M | -375.55M | -625.46M | -105.59M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -227.50M | -226.93M | -436.81M | -360.68M | -166.33M | -217.87M |
Boise Cascade Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BCC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 77.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 75.72, above the 50-day MA of 76.07, and above the 200-day MA of 76.75, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BCC.
Boise Cascade Risk Analysis
Boise Cascade disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Boise Cascade reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
0 New RisksBoise Cascade Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
MLM75Outperform
CPAC73.6Outperform
TGLS69Neutral
VMC69Neutral- BCC59Neutral
LOMA55Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLM | 75Outperform | $38.62B | 14.70 | 18.24% | 0.60% | 0.06% | 125.23% |
| CPAC | 74Outperform | $1.16B | 14.38 | 19.61% | 4.78% | 20.97% | 27.03% |
| TGLS | 69Neutral | $1.76B | 15.07 | 17.29% | 1.40% | 9.87% | -26.90% |
| VMC | 69Neutral | $36.53B | 35.15 | 13.04% | 0.69% | 1.61% | 0.24% |
| Sector * | 61Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
| BCC | 59Neutral | $2.60B | 22.73 | 5.89% | 1.14% | 1.23% | -32.99% |
| LOMA | 55Neutral | $1.12B | 37.47 | 4.06% | ― | -5.25% | -50.76% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BCC | Boise Cascade Company | 77.98 | 8.16 | 11.69% | |
| CPAC | Cementos Pacasmayo S.a.a. | 12.73 | 5.99 | 88.87% | |
| MLM | Martin Marietta Materials | 556.56 | -50.66 | -8.34% | |
| VMC | Vulcan Materials Company | 297.69 | 12.52 | 4.39% | |
| TGLS | Tecnoglass | 42.81 | -6.23 | -12.70% | |
| LOMA | Loma Negra Compania Industrial Argentina Sociedad Anonima | 8.91 | -1.89 | -17.50% |
Boise Cascade Corporate Events
Boise Cascade Declares Quarterly Dividend, Reinforcing Investor Returns
PositiveOn October 26, 2026, Boise Cascade expanded its Board of Directors from 10 to 11 members and elected Brian Carlson, former president of Huber Engineered Woods, to fill the new seat. Carlson, who brings three decades of building products leadership an...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Nov 04, 2026