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BayFirst Financial Corp (BAFN) AI Stock Analysis
BayFirst Financial Corp
(NASDAQ:BAFN)
BAFN’s score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (sharp TTM revenue decline and deep losses) and bearish technicals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). These are partially offset by encouraging earnings-call signals of sequential operational and credit improvement (higher NIM, narrowed loss, improving metrics) and a balance sheet/cash flow profile that is relatively more supportive than profitability.
BayFirst Financial Corp Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Loan Portfolio BreakdownBreaks down the bank's loan mix — commercial, commercial real estate, consumer, and mortgage — along with credit-quality metrics and borrower or sector concentrations. A portfolio weighted toward commercial real estate or construction can drive income in good times but increases exposure to local economic weakness and property-price swings; a diversified mix with low delinquencies and limited borrower concentrations points to steadier earnings and lower credit risk. Tracking originations, average loan size, yields, and nonperforming loans highlights growth momentum, margin drivers, and early signs of potential charge-offs.
BayFirst’s loan mix has shifted from a heavily SBA/loan‑sale profile toward a residential‑centric book: PPP is essentially gone and residential real estate has ballooned, while C&I and CRE have been pared back—largely via sales and the exit from SBA 7(a). Management’s $80M capital raise and larger reserves address legacy credit risk, but the shrinking loan base and lost SBA fee income compress scale and near‑term earnings; rebuilding core commercial lending and deposit growth is now critical to restore margins and offset dilution.
The FlyBayFirst Financial Corp (BAFN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $24.52M
- Dividend Yield
- ―
- Average Volume (3M)
- 103.01K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- -0.6
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.26
- Revenue Growth
- -40.59%
- EPS Growth
- -260.03%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 146
- Sector
- Financial
- Sector Strength
- 68
- Industry
- Banks - Regional
BayFirst Financial Corp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Founded in 1999 and headquartered in Saint Petersburg, Florida, BayFirst Financial Corp. functions as the parent entity for First Home Bank. This financial institution offers a comprehensive array of commercial and consumer banking solutions for both...
How the Company Makes Money
BayFirst Financial Corp makes money primarily through its bank subsidiary by (1) earning net interest income and (2) generating noninterest (fee-based) income. Net interest income is typically the largest driver of earnings for a bank: BayFirst colle...
BayFirst Financial Corp Earnings Call Summary
The call was optimistic and emphasized measurable sequential improvements in loan and deposit growth, net interest margin, earnings, non-interest income, expenses, credit quality, liquidity, and capital. However, the bank remained unprofitable, loans and deposits were down year over year, tangible book value and shareholders' equity declined, and the unguaranteed SBA 7(a) portfolio continued to generate charge-offs. Highlights significantly outweighed the lowlights, with management expressing confidence in the ongoing transformation into a community bank.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
Management said the $10 million quarterly runoff of the $132 million unguaranteed loan portfolio is expected to continue, or “close to $40 million a year,” while the runoff has “kind of stabilized at this level over the past 6 months, give or take”; management’s hope is that charge-off trends moderate as the portfolio rolls down and that borrowers perform “at better levels going forward.” Higher loan balances at quarter-end combined with the 4.07% net interest margin are expected to provide higher net interest income in future periods and contribute to better earnings, although there is still work to do to deliver positive earnings in the short-term; management also said the quarterly earnings loss is not indicative of what it will do going forward. The bank plans to aggressively grow deposits at 6 of its 12 banking center locations that have been open for 5 years or less, with additional commercial bankers considered critical because loan demand is currently very strong.
BayFirst Financial Corp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Overall fundamentals are mixed but pressured: the income statement is the key weakness with sharply lower TTM revenue (~-24.5%) and deeply negative profitability (net margin ~-91.6%). Offsetting this somewhat, leverage appears moderate (TTM debt-to-equity ~0.16) and operating/free cash flow are strongly positive in TTM, though trending down (~-28.8% TTM FCF) and potentially less durable if losses persist.
Income Statement
18Very NegativeBalance Sheet
55NeutralCash Flow
62Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 65.18M | 104.19M | 125.24M | 110.85M | 66.41M | 63.35M |
| Gross Profit | -11.82M | 39.59M | 65.73M | 68.32M | 58.54M | 59.55M |
| EBITDA | -74.16M | -21.71M | 25.71M | 14.79M | 12.01M | 16.05M |
| Net Income | -59.71M | -22.94M | 12.60M | 5.70M | -349.00K | 24.62M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.13B | 1.30B | 1.29B | 1.12B | 938.89M | 917.10M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 212.92M | 206.98M | 88.94M | 102.61M | 113.28M | 143.00M |
| Total Debt | 18.66M | 20.82M | 22.40M | 20.96M | 37.37M | 12.71M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.02B | 1.21B | 1.18B | 1.02B | 847.01M | 820.80M |
| Stockholders Equity | 115.95M | 87.57M | 110.92M | 100.71M | 91.88M | 96.29M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 147.80M | 285.00M | 388.84M | 447.21M | 432.19M | 482.27M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 147.84M | 285.30M | 390.53M | 454.80M | 440.25M | 495.39M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 59.01M | -194.94M | -515.93M | -641.28M | -510.61M | 207.62M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -142.14M | 38.84M | 144.80M | 178.82M | 26.67M | -648.66M |
BayFirst Financial Corp Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BAFN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.12, below the 50-day MA of 7.06, and below the 200-day MA of 6.53, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.28 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.96 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BAFN.
BayFirst Financial Corp Risk Analysis
BayFirst Financial Corp disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BayFirst Financial Corp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
0 New RisksBayFirst Financial Corp Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
OPHC83Outperform
ASRV70Outperform
TCBS65Neutral
HFBL64Neutral- BAFN54Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPHC | 83Outperform | $115.75M | 5.17 | 16.39% | ― | 24.01% | 20.16% |
| ASRV | 70Outperform | $77.13M | 8.88 | 7.48% | 2.52% | 2.43% | 75.47% |
| Sector * | 68Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
| TCBS | 65Neutral | $49.41M | 14.42 | 6.14% | 1.44% | 5.94% | 51.02% |
| HFBL | 64Neutral | $68.52M | 10.44 | 11.12% | 2.55% | 7.94% | 43.98% |
| BAFN | 54Neutral | $183.01M | -0.58 | -42.56% | ― | -40.59% | -260.03% |
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAFN | BayFirst Financial Corp | 5.97 | -2.40 | -28.67% | |
| ASRV | AmeriServ Financial, Inc. | 4.77 | 1.78 | 59.53% | |
| HFBL | Home Federal Bancorp Inc. Of Louisiana | 22.35 | 7.16 | 47.17% | |
| OPHC | Optimumbank | 8.95 | 4.99 | 126.01% | |
| TCBS | Texas Community Bancshares, Inc. | 17.41 | 1.74 | 11.09% |
BayFirst Financial Corp Corporate Events
BayFirst Financial Reports Narrowed Third-Quarter Loss and Improving Metrics
PositiveOn October 30, 2026, BayFirst reported third-quarter results showing a net loss of $677,000, sharply narrowed from $32.7 million in the second quarter. Loans held for investment rose $20.1 million, deposits increased $25.3 million, and net interest m...
BayFirst Narrows Quarterly Loss Amid Strategic Restructuring Progress
NeutralBayFirst Financial Corp. reported on October 29, 2026, that it recorded a third-quarter 2026 net loss of $0.7 million, sharply improved from a $32.7 million loss in the prior quarter, as its asset resolution plan began to show results. The bank poste...
BayFirst Financial Plans Upcoming Q3 2026 Results Call
NeutralBayFirst Financial Corp. announced on September 30, 2026, that it would release third-quarter 2026 financial results after markets close on Thursday, October 29. The company said management will host a conference call and simultaneous internet webcas...
BayFirst Financial Updates Executive Employment and Compensation Agreements
PositiveOn September 24, 2026, BayFirst Financial Corp and BayFirst National Bank entered into revised employment agreements with Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer Robin L. Oliver and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Sc...
BayFirst Financial Holds 2026 Annual Shareholder Meeting
PositiveBayFirst Financial Corp. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders on September 22, 2026, with 23,833,649 of 26,962,815 outstanding common shares represented in person or by proxy, amounting to 88.4% of shares eligible to vote. Shareholders electe...
BayFirst Financial Announces Shareholder Rights Offering Plan
NeutralBayFirst Financial Corp., parent of BayFirst National Bank, operates as a regional bank holding company in Florida, generating income primarily through commercial and consumer banking services in the Tampa Bay-Sarasota region. With eleven full-servic...
BayFirst Details Q2 Losses and Restated Financials
NegativeOn August 14, 2026, BayFirst Financial Corp detailed a tumultuous second quarter marked by a net loss of $32.7 million, largely driven by a $41.5 million asset resolution plan focused on legacy unguaranteed SBA 7(a) loans and related portfolio adjust...
BayFirst Posts Larger Loss, Shifts Strategy Toward Core Banking
NegativeBayFirst Financial Corp. reported on August 13, 2026, a sharply wider net loss of $32.7 million for the second quarter of 2026, driven primarily by $41.5 million of expenses tied to an asset resolution plan targeting problem government guaranteed and...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Nov 03, 2026