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Axalta Coating Systems
(NYSE:AXTA)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$42.00
▲(28.21% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
AXTA scores well on fundamentals, led by strong free cash flow generation and improving profitability, with leverage trending down but still a key constraint. Technicals are bullish with strong trend/momentum, though overbought signals add near-term risk. Valuation is only average (P/E ~22) and the lack of a dividend yield reduces support, while the earnings call was constructive on execution, guidance stability, and continued deleveraging despite raw-material and volume headwinds.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Consistent, high free cash flow (TTM ~$495M) and strong conversion provide durable financial flexibility. Reliable cash allows continued deleveraging, targeted capital expenditures, and potential shareholder returns, reducing funding risk and strengthening the firm's resilience across cycles.
Negative Factors
Residual leverage above conservative levels
Although leverage has improved (gross debt reductions and equity growth), net leverage remains elevated relative to conservative peers. This leaves the company more exposed to cyclical demand, interest rate volatility, or weaker cash flow periods, constraining financial flexibility until further deleveraging.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Consistent, high free cash flow (TTM ~$495M) and strong conversion provide durable financial flexibility. Reliable cash allows continued deleveraging, targeted capital expenditures, and potential shareholder returns, reducing funding risk and strengthening the firm's resilience across cycles.
Read all positive factors
Axalta Coating Systems Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue by different business segments, highlighting which areas drive growth and profitability, and revealing strategic focus and market opportunities.
Breaks down revenue by different business segments, highlighting which areas drive growth and profitability, and revealing strategic focus and market opportunities.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAxalta Coating Systems (AXTA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.66B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.82M
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.0
Beta (1Y)0.92
Revenue Growth-0.92%
EPS Growth-20.25%
CountryUS
Employees12,300
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.63
Shares Outstanding214,020,000
10 Day Avg. Volume1,672,834
30 Day Avg. Volume1,824,885
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-10.95
Price to Book (P/B)2.97
Price to Sales (P/S)1.36
P/FCF Ratio15.41
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$37.63Price Target Upside14.85% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)2.65
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.24B
Axalta Coating Systems Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. is a leading global enterprise focused on the development, sale, and distribution of advanced, high-performance coating solutions. Its operations extend across North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pa...
How the Company Makes Money
Axalta makes money by developing, manufacturing, and selling coatings systems and related products to professional and industrial customers, generating revenue largely from product sales across its two primary operating segments.
1) Performance C...
Axalta Coating Systems Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple record financial results (record adjusted EBITDA, record adjusted EPS, strong free cash flow, and lowest-ever net leverage) driven by pricing, disciplined cost control, acquisitions and notable commercial wins (Refinish bodyshop gains, Mobility commercial vehicle strength, Industrial wins in Europe/Asia). Management maintained prudent guidance due to geopolitical and raw material uncertainties and disclosed merger-related transaction costs that reduced GAAP net income. On balance the company demonstrated strong operational execution, meaningful margin expansion and improved balance sheet metrics while acknowledging manageable near-term macro and cost headwinds.Positive Updates
Record Adjusted EBITDA and Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA reached a record $305 million, up 5% year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 22.7% (up 30 basis points year-over-year and the highest second-quarter margin in many years).
Negative Updates
GAAP Net Income Decline Due to Transaction Costs
Net income was $89 million, down $21 million versus prior year, primarily driven by an incremental $31 million of transaction-related costs associated with the pending AkzoNobel merger.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Adjusted EBITDA and Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA reached a record $305 million, up 5% year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 22.7% (up 30 basis points year-over-year and the highest second-quarter margin in many years).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Axalta said it will maintain its previously issued full‑year guidance for net sales, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted diluted EPS and free cash flow, and gave Q3 targets of net sales up low‑single‑digit percent year‑over‑year, adjusted EBITDA of $295–$305 million, and adjusted diluted EPS of ~$0.70 (≈+4% YoY); management expects second‑half revenue up low‑single digits, full‑year raw‑material inflation of roughly mid‑single digits (Q2 ~low‑single digits with Q3 possibly ticking toward the low end of high‑single digits), a positive price/mix for the year and FX tailwinds to abate, and said it can convert incremental volumes if they materialize; the company also highlighted its strong cash profile (Q2 cash from operations $152M, free cash flow $107M), lower interest expense, gross debt reduced $80M in the quarter ($135M YTD), net leverage at 2.2x with a goal to exit the year below 2.0x, and reiterated the proposed AkzoNobel transaction (targeting ~$600M annual run‑rate synergies, ~90% captured within three years, closing late‑2026/early‑2027 pending the Aug 5 vote).Axalta Coating Systems Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.15B | 5.12B | 5.28B | 5.18B | 4.88B | 4.42B |
| Gross Profit | 1.68B | 1.67B | 1.80B | 1.62B | 1.42B | 1.43B |
| EBITDA | 910.00M | 1.03B | 981.00M | 844.00M | 700.00M | 791.20M |
| Net Income | 349.00M | 378.00M | 391.00M | 267.00M | 192.00M | 263.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.70B | 7.60B | 7.25B | 7.27B | 7.06B | 7.22B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 633.00M | 660.00M | 593.00M | 703.10M | 654.90M | 840.60M |
| Total Debt | 3.07B | 3.39B | 3.52B | 3.61B | 3.81B | 3.86B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.13B | 5.21B | 5.29B | 5.50B | 5.56B | 5.68B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.52B | 2.35B | 1.91B | 1.73B | 1.45B | 1.49B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 495.00M | 453.00M | 436.00M | 437.40M | 142.90M | 437.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 701.00M | 649.00M | 576.00M | 575.30M | 293.80M | 558.60M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -226.00M | -212.00M | -440.00M | -205.70M | -106.40M | -716.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -465.00M | -401.00M | -201.00M | -315.00M | -368.90M | -334.50M |
Axalta Coating Systems Technical Analysis
Positive
32.76
Price Trends
33.42
Positive
30.74
Positive
31.02
Positive
Market Momentum
1.22
Negative
67.95
Neutral
93.64
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXTA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 32.76 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.08, below the 50-day MA of 33.42, and above the 200-day MA of 31.02, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.64 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AXTA.
Axalta Coating Systems Risk Analysis
Axalta Coating Systems disclosed 57 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Axalta Coating Systems reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Axalta Coating Systems Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $82.74B | 31.13 | 62.12% | 1.00% | 5.76% | 7.42% | |
71 Outperform | $7.66B | 21.97 | 14.59% | ― | -0.92% | -20.25% | |
70 Outperform | $8.00B | 18.07 | 7.42% | 4.91% | -4.30% | -46.24% | |
69 Neutral | $13.68B | 20.63 | 20.93% | 2.02% | 6.66% | -3.58% | |
66 Neutral | $20.23B | 24.15 | 5.99% | 2.11% | -5.60% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $24.57B | 15.74 | 30.22% | 2.45% | 1.47% | 23.56% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AXTA
Axalta Coating Systems
37.54
9.07
31.86%
EMN
Eastman Chemical
73.50
15.14
25.94%
IFF
International Flavors & Fragrances
84.55
21.84
34.82%
PPG
PPG Industries
117.16
13.79
13.34%
RPM
RPM International
115.65
-1.08
-0.92%
SHW
Sherwin-Williams Company
363.42
16.73
4.83%
Axalta Coating Systems Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
Axalta Shareholders Approve Transformative Merger with AkzoNobel
Positive
Aug 5, 2026
On August 5, 2026, Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. held a special general meeting at which shareholders approved changes to its bye-laws to simplify the voting threshold for future merger or amalgamation resolutions. Investors also backed a nonbinding...
Business Operations and StrategyLegal ProceedingsM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Axalta issues supplemental disclosures amid merger litigation
Neutral
Jul 29, 2026
On November 18, 2025, Axalta entered into a merger agreement with AkzoNobel that structures a two-step Bermuda statutory merger, ultimately combining Axalta into AkzoNobel’s Eagles Holding Ltd. to form a new entity known as MergeCo. The deal...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
Axalta Coating Systems Updates Merger Governance Agreement
Positive
Jul 23, 2026
On July 23, 2026, Axalta and AkzoNobel executed a second amendment to their previously announced merger agreement, refining governance terms for the future combined company. The changes, driven by extensive shareholder and stakeholder dialogue, in...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Axalta Shareholders Reelect Board and Approve Governance Items
Positive
Jun 4, 2026
At its 2026 Annual General Meeting held on June 3, 2026, Axalta Coating Systems’ shareholders elected nine directors to serve until the 2027 AGM, signaling continuity in the company’s board leadership and governance structures. Shareho...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Axalta, Akzo Nobel Refine Merger Structure and Governance
Positive
May 28, 2026
On November 18, 2025, Axalta Coating Systems agreed to merge with Akzo Nobel, under a structure where a newly formed AkzoNobel subsidiary in Bermuda would merge into Axalta, leaving Axalta as the surviving company. On May 27, 2026, the parties ame...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.