Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) AI Stock Analysis

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Axalta Coating Systems

(NYSE:AXTA)

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Rating:66Neutral

Price Target:$37.00▼(-1.20% Downside)

Action:reiterated

Date:10/29/26

The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals and strong, rising free cash flow, partially offset by still-elevated leverage and mixed recent revenue/margin trends. Technicals add moderate support (above the 200-day average with positive MACD), while valuation is only average at ~21x earnings with no dividend yield provided. The latest earnings call reinforces solid operational performance but flags near-term headwinds after guidance was lowered.

Positive Factors

Sustained profitabilityMaintaining adjusted EBITDA margins above 20% for 11 consecutive quarters indicates durable operating discipline and pricing or mix resilience. This profitability base can support continued investment, strengthen competitive positioning, and cushion the business against uneven end-market demand.

Negative Factors

Still meaningful leverageAlthough leverage is improving, debt remains material for a specialty chemicals company and limits financial flexibility. Sustained cash generation is needed to continue deleveraging, while weaker demand or margin pressure could slow debt reduction and constrain investment choices.

Axalta Coating Systems Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Revenue by SegmentBreaks down revenue by different business segments, highlighting which areas drive growth and profitability, and revealing strategic focus and market opportunities.

Chart Insights

Refinish has stabilized near recent peaks and is delivering body‑shop share gains, but sequential softness and unfavorable North America price/mix are pressuring Performance Coatings margins. Mobility is the clear growth engine—record sales and expanding margins aided by index‑linked pricing and procurement improvements—while Industrial revenues lag yet show steady profitability momentum, especially in Asia. Management’s call for a Q2 price/mix inflection and priority on debt paydown means upside depends on sustained pass‑through and North American demand recovery; otherwise results may gravitate toward the low end of guidance.

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The Fly

Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $8.02B
Dividend Yield: ―
Average Volume (3M): 1.86M
Price to Earnings (P/E): 24.0
Beta (1Y): 1.00
Revenue Growth: 0.14%
EPS Growth: -25.40%
Country: US
Employees: 12,200
Sector: Basic Materials
Sector Strength: 61
Industry: Chemicals - Specialty

Axalta Coating Systems Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. is a leading global enterprise focused on the development, sale, and distribution of advanced, high-performance coating solutions. Its operations extend across North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacif...

How the Company Makes Money

Axalta makes money by manufacturing and selling coatings and related coating systems, generating revenue primarily from product sales to customers in automotive and industrial markets. Its earnings are driven by two major end-use channels: (1) Transp...

Axalta Coating Systems Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 28, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:8.11%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 16, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was overall positive, supported by record Mobility Coatings performance, strong Commercial Vehicle growth, sustained margins above 20%, robust cash generation, lower leverage, continued body shop wins and progress toward the AkzoNobel merger. However, management lowered fourth-quarter and full-year expectations because of weaker European Refinish volumes, macroeconomic uncertainty, higher freight and raw material costs, and near-term margin pressure from MSO conversion investments.

Positive Updates

Net Sales Growth Across Most Markets and Regions

Third-quarter net sales increased 2% year-over-year to $1.311 billion, with volume growth in 3 of 4 end markets and 3 of 4 regions. Growth was driven by significant Commercial Vehicle growth, favorable foreign currency, Refinish acquisitions and favorable price/mix.

Negative Updates

Third-Quarter Results Below Expectations

Management said quarterly performance remained strong but was below expectations, driven primarily by softer Refinish volumes in Europe. A weakening macroeconomic environment led distributors, particularly in the indirect channel, to adopt more cautious ordering patterns in late August and September.

Company Guidance

For the fourth quarter, Axalta expects net sales to be approximately flat year-over-year compared to being up 3% previously, adjusted EBITDA of $254 million to $264 million, and adjusted diluted earnings per share of approximately $0.55; Commercial Vehicle is expected to be up year-on-year, Light Vehicle down to flattish, Industrial roughly flat year-on-year, and European Refinish roughly flat on a year-over-year basis. For the full year, the company anticipates adjusted EBITDA of $1.1 billion to $1.110 billion, adjusted diluted earnings per share of approximately $2.45, and free cash flow of approximately $450 million; excluding deal costs, it expects greater than $500 million of free cash flow. Raw materials are tracking up about mid-single digits year-on-year for the full year and at high single-digit type inflation for the fourth quarter, while Commercial Vehicle production is expected to take another increase in ’27.

Axalta Coating Systems Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are improving, led by stronger profitability versus 2022 (net margin rising to ~7%+) and consistently strong free cash flow that stepped up materially (TTM FCF ~$497M). The main drag is balance-sheet risk: leverage has improved but remains meaningful, and recent revenue/margin signals are mixed (2025 revenue down ~3% YoY and gross margin drifting lower in TTM).

Income Statement

72Positive

Balance Sheet

58Neutral

Cash Flow

74Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.17B	5.12B	5.28B	5.18B	4.88B	4.42B
Gross Profit	1.69B	1.67B	1.80B	1.62B	1.42B	1.43B
EBITDA	954.00M	1.03B	981.00M	843.60M	700.10M	791.20M
Net Income	334.00M	378.00M	391.00M	267.00M	192.00M	263.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	7.75B	7.60B	7.25B	7.27B	7.06B	7.22B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	650.00M	660.00M	593.00M	703.10M	654.90M	840.60M
Total Debt	3.00B	3.39B	3.52B	3.61B	3.81B	3.86B
Total Liabilities	5.08B	5.21B	5.29B	5.50B	5.56B	5.68B
Stockholders Equity	2.62B	2.35B	1.91B	1.73B	1.45B	1.49B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	497.00M	453.00M	436.00M	437.40M	142.90M	437.00M
Operating Cash Flow	699.00M	649.00M	576.00M	575.30M	293.80M	558.60M
Investing Cash Flow	-228.00M	-212.00M	-440.00M	-205.70M	-106.40M	-716.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-426.00M	-401.00M	-201.00M	-315.00M	-368.90M	-334.50M

Axalta Coating Systems Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive

Last Price37.45

Price Trends

50DMA33.98Positive

100DMA34.37Positive

200DMA32.32Positive

Market Momentum

MACD0.59Negative

RSI68.25Neutral

STOCH82.74Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXTA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 37.45 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.18, above the 50-day MA of 33.98, and above the 200-day MA of 32.32, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.59 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.74 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AXTA.

Axalta Coating Systems Risk Analysis

Axalta Coating Systems disclosed 57 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Axalta Coating Systems reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Axalta Coating Systems Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

AXTA against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RPM	69Neutral	$13.44B	20.08	21.13%	2.01%	5.96%	0.68%
AXTA	66Neutral	$7.53B	24.01	13.48%	―	0.14%	-25.40%
EMN	65Neutral	$7.47B	11.92	10.63%	4.97%	0.40%	-6.58%
SHW	65Neutral	$82.35B	33.10	63.49%	0.88%	7.03%	5.95%
PPG	62Neutral	$26.78B	18.08	19.05%	2.26%	6.39%	27.29%
Sector *	61Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
ASH	61Neutral	$3.34B	849.33	0.21%	2.18%	2.08%	―

* Basic Materials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

AXTA and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
AXTA	Axalta Coating Systems	37.45	8.46	29.18%
ASH	Ashland Global Holdings, Inc.	76.28	27.59	56.67%
EMN	Eastman Chemical Company	65.71	7.38	12.65%
PPG	Ppg Industries, Inc.	123.27	29.47	31.42%
RPM	RPM International	109.05	3.83	3.64%
SHW	Sherwin-Williams	363.50	26.54	7.88%

Axalta Coating Systems Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings

Axalta Shareholders Approve Transformative Merger with AkzoNobel

Positive

Aug 5, 2026

On August 5, 2026, Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. held a special general meeting at which shareholders approved changes to its bye-laws to simplify the voting threshold for future merger or amalgamation resolutions. Investors also backed a nonbinding ad...

Business Operations and StrategyLegal ProceedingsM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings

Axalta issues supplemental disclosures amid merger litigation

Neutral

Jul 29, 2026

On November 18, 2025, Axalta entered into a merger agreement with AkzoNobel that structures a two-step Bermuda statutory merger, ultimately combining Axalta into AkzoNobel’s Eagles Holding Ltd. to form a new entity known as MergeCo. The deal ai...

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 29, 2026

Axalta Coating Systems AI Stock Analysis