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Axos Financial
(NYSE:AX)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$100.00
▲(1.96% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/22/26
AX scores highest on fundamentals and outlook: strong profitability, a healthy balance sheet, and a constructive earnings-call setup (loan/deposit momentum, solid NIM, and a coming tax-rate benefit). The score is held back by volatile cash generation and weak technical signals, with shares trending below key moving averages despite oversold readings. Valuation is a modest positive due to the low P/E.
Positive Factors
Broad-based growth and profitability
Axos is expanding across lending, deposits and fee-generating activities while maintaining double-digit earnings growth. This broad-based operating momentum suggests the digital banking model is gaining scale and can support durable earnings expansion over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Volatile cash conversion
The sharp decline in free cash flow relative to the prior two years indicates that reported earnings have not translated consistently into cash. Persistent cash-conversion volatility could reduce flexibility for acquisitions, investment, capital returns and balance-sheet growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Broad-based growth and profitability
Axos is expanding across lending, deposits and fee-generating activities while maintaining double-digit earnings growth. This broad-based operating momentum suggests the digital banking model is gaining scale and can support durable earnings expansion over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Axos Financial Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Income Before Taxes by Segment
Shows the pre-tax profit or loss contributed by each Axos business unit, letting investors see which segments drive overall profitability. Trends here reveal whether growth is translating into sustainable earnings, and how credit costs, expense management, or one-time items are affecting each line of business. Helpful for assessing management’s capital allocation, margin health, and which parts of the company are most exposed to downside.
Shows the pre-tax profit or loss contributed by each Axos business unit, letting investors see which segments drive overall profitability. Trends here reveal whether growth is translating into sustainable earnings, and how credit costs, expense management, or one-time items are affecting each line of business. Helpful for assessing management’s capital allocation, margin health, and which parts of the company are most exposed to downside.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAxos Financial (AX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.03B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)373.30K
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.2
Beta (1Y)1.07
Revenue Growth12.54%
EPS Growth13.67%
CountryUS
Employees2,191
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)8.66
Shares Outstanding56,858,000
10 Day Avg. Volume373,975
30 Day Avg. Volume373,296
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.82
Price to Book (P/B)1.74
Price to Sales (P/S)2.52
P/FCF Ratio18.95
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.12
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.57
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.09
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.75
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$118.80Price Target Upside21.13% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)9.66
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.62B
Axos Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Founded in Las Vegas, Nevada, in 1999, Axos Financial, Inc. is a U.S.-based financial institution that delivers a comprehensive array of banking services to both individual consumers and businesses. The company operates through two primary divisio...
How the Company Makes Money
Axos Financial primarily makes money through (1) net interest income and (2) noninterest income. Net interest income is earned by taking deposits and other funding (such as checking, savings, money market accounts, and time deposits), paying depos...
Axos Financial Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong core performance: robust organic loan growth ($856M Q/Q), deposit growth (+7.6% YoY to $20.8B), improving NIM (4.84%), solid profitability (17% ROE, adjusted EPS ~$1.87), and meaningful custody business momentum (AUC +$2.3B, net new assets +$215M). Management highlighted continued credit stability, a healthy $2.0B loan pipeline, and a forthcoming ~3 percentage-point reduction in state tax rate that should boost future EPS. Headwinds were largely manageable and mostly one-time or strategic (a $5.6M deferred tax impairment, modest increase in professional services and new-team costs, competitive pressure on new loan yields, and some monitoring of C&I nonaccruals). On balance, positive operational trends and outlook beat the limited near-term negatives, supporting a constructive view on the company’s trajectory.Positive Updates
Strong Net Loan Growth
Net loan growth of $856 million linked-quarter, representing 4.2% linked-quarter growth (16% annualized) driven by asset based lending, commercial real estate, specialty equipment leasing, lender finance and single-family warehouse; single-family mortgage balances grew for the second consecutive quarter.
Negative Updates
One-Time Deferred Tax Impairment Increased Tax Expense
A $5.6 million noncash deferred tax impairment related to California taxation changes increased income tax expense in the quarter, contributing to a reported tax rate of 29% for the quarter (vs 27.4% year-ago); this was a one-time remeasurement but increased Q4 tax expense by ~$2.3 million when combined with stock-based incentive remeasurement.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Net Loan Growth
Net loan growth of $856 million linked-quarter, representing 4.2% linked-quarter growth (16% annualized) driven by asset based lending, commercial real estate, specialty equipment leasing, lender finance and single-family warehouse; single-family mortgage balances grew for the second consecutive quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that for fiscal 2026 they expect organic loan growth toward the mid‑to‑high end of their "high single‑digits to low‑teens" annual range (excluding FDIC loan purchases or other asset acquisitions), see a consolidated NIM ex‑FDIC accretion to remain at the high or slightly above their 4.25%–4.35% target, and begin the year with a $2.0 billion loan pipeline (7/25/2025) comprising $532M single‑family jumbo, $49M gain‑on‑sale, $302M multifamily/small‑business commercial, $73M auto/consumer and $1.1B commercial; they emphasized capital discipline, said a California tax change will lower their effective tax rate by ~3 percentage points to ~26%–27% starting 9/30/2025 (boosting net income/EPS), and reiterated expense controls — targeting personnel and professional services growth to be ≤30% of NII + noninterest income growth, planning a ~4% annual merit increase and noting one new floor‑plan team will add roughly $1M of expense per quarter.Axos Financial Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.19B | 1.93B | 1.77B | 1.26B | 757.91M |
| Gross Profit | 1.38B | 1.19B | 1.04B | 865.93M | 681.59M |
| EBITDA | 727.29M | 642.41M | 662.57M | 455.13M | 364.56M |
| Net Income | 490.37M | 432.91M | 450.01M | 307.17M | 240.72M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 29.96B | 24.78B | 22.86B | 20.35B | 17.46B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.16B | 2.00B | 2.12B | 2.47B | 1.47B |
| Total Debt | 1.07B | 372.67M | 415.68M | 451.78M | 562.74M |
| Total Liabilities | 26.80B | 22.10B | 20.56B | 18.43B | 15.81B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.17B | 2.68B | 2.29B | 1.92B | 1.64B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 291.15M | 436.12M | 269.52M | 166.49M | 195.12M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 557.60M | 490.33M | 305.48M | 196.71M | 216.62M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.04B | -1.84B | -2.59B | -2.40B | -2.78B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 3.61B | 1.34B | 2.09B | 3.01B | 3.10B |
Axos Financial Technical Analysis
Negative
98.08
Price Trends
94.74
Negative
93.75
Negative
92.32
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.78
Negative
40.56
Neutral
70.50
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 98.08 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 89.24, above the 50-day MA of 94.74, and above the 200-day MA of 92.32, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.78 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AX.
Axos Financial Risk Analysis
Axos Financial disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Axos Financial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Our operational tasks are outsourced to a range of third-party vendors, both within our country and internationally which may negatively affect our performance. Q2, 2026
Axos Financial Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $1.60B | 11.97 | 10.91% | 0.35% | 7.11% | 132.73% | |
71 Outperform | $1.49B | 8.96 | 20.58% | 0.28% | 1.95% | 6.07% | |
70 Outperform | $5.03B | 10.21 | 16.41% | ― | 12.54% | 13.67% | |
69 Neutral | $1.97B | 8.95 | 32.32% | ― | 2.65% | 13.98% | |
68 Neutral | $2.50B | 8.72 | 13.57% | ― | 11.55% | 103.48% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
62 Neutral | $8.10B | 8.25 | 12.99% | 2.26% | 12.24% | 16.53% |
* Financial Sector Average
AX
Axos Financial
88.44
7.57
9.36%
CASH
Pathward Financial
71.87
-1.85
-2.50%
WAL
Western Alliance
74.27
-2.97
-3.85%
CUBI
Customers Bancorp
74.04
9.35
14.45%
TBBK
Bancorp
48.25
-28.11
-36.81%
LOB
Live Oak Bancshares
34.48
-1.02
-2.88%
Axos Financial Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Axos Financial expands IRA deposits with Capital One deal
Positive
Sep 21, 2026
On September 21, 2026, Axos Bank, a subsidiary of Axos Financial, completed its previously announced acquisition of individual retirement accounts deposited into associated savings and certificate of deposit accounts from Capital One. The transact...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Axos Financial Highlights Growth and Strategic Investor Positioning
Positive
Aug 6, 2026
On August 6, 2026, Axos Financial released an investor presentation outlining its performance and strategic positioning ahead of investor meetings beginning around August 11, 2026. Management highlighted a diverse mix of assets, deposits and fee i...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresLegal ProceedingsM&A Transactions
Axos Financial posts strong Q4 and full-year results
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
Axos Financial reported strong unaudited results for its fourth fiscal quarter and full year ended June 30, 2026, with quarterly net income rising to $124.9 million and diluted EPS to $2.16, up 12.9% and 12.5% from the prior-year quarter. Adjusted...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Axos Financial to Acquire Arc Technologies Fintech Platform
Positive
Jul 7, 2026
Axos Nevada Holding, LLC, a subsidiary of Axos Financial, Inc., agreed on July 6, 2026, to acquire Arc Technologies, Inc., a financial technology platform focused on technology and growth companies. Arc, founded in 2021 with headquarters in San Fr...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.