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Mission Produce
(NASDAQ:AVO)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$13.00
▼(-0.23% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/08/26
AVO scores mid-range primarily due to mixed fundamentals: a strong, conservatively levered balance sheet is offset by sharp TTM margin compression and a swing back to slightly negative free cash flow. The earnings call improves the outlook with reaffirmed EBITDA guidance and >$30M synergy targets tied to the Calavo integration, but near-term technicals remain soft and the extremely high P/E meaningfully weighs on the overall score.
Positive Factors
Calavo Integration Synergies
The Calavo integration is creating a sizable, identifiable efficiency opportunity across transportation, facilities, procurement, distribution, and SG&A. If execution remains disciplined, these synergies can expand margins and earnings capacity over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Margin Compression
Lower selling prices are already reducing gross profit and farming profitability, showing that higher volumes do not automatically translate into stronger earnings. Persistent supply-driven pricing pressure could limit margin recovery and make profitability more dependent on execution and mix.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Calavo Integration Synergies
The Calavo integration is creating a sizable, identifiable efficiency opportunity across transportation, facilities, procurement, distribution, and SG&A. If execution remains disciplined, these synergies can expand margins and earnings capacity over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Mission Produce Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how different business segments contribute to total revenue, helping identify which areas drive growth and which might need strategic adjustments.
Shows how different business segments contribute to total revenue, helping identify which areas drive growth and which might need strategic adjustments.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMission Produce (AVO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.04B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.01M
Price to Earnings (P/E)386.5
Beta (1Y)0.39
Revenue Growth-6.18%
EPS Growth-93.36%
CountryUS
Employees3,800
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryFood Distribution
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.03
Shares Outstanding87,678,406
10 Day Avg. Volume1,122,548
30 Day Avg. Volume1,011,006
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio11.30
Price to Book (P/B)1.40
Price to Sales (P/S)0.59
P/FCF Ratio22.03
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.49
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.16
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.17
Enterprise Value/Ebitda23.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$16.87Price Target Upside29.44% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.63
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.46B
Mission Produce Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mission Produce, Inc. is a prominent global entity that oversees the entire avocado value chain, from cultivation and processing to packaging and ultimate distribution across the United States and internationally. The company operates through two ...
How the Company Makes Money
Mission Produce primarily makes money by selling fresh avocados and providing value-added post-harvest services that support those sales. Its revenue model is generally tied to the volume of avocados it sells, the market prices for avocados, and t...
Mission Produce Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Sep 08, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was positive overall. Highlights significantly outweighed lowlights, with strong avocado category demand, 26% revenue growth, 38% avocado volume growth, an adjusted EBITDA beat, higher expected synergies of more than $30 million, improved Peruvian production, and a reaffirmed second-half outlook. The principal challenges were lower selling prices, reduced gross margin and adjusted net income, acquisition-related costs, negative operating cash flow, higher debt and interest expense, and ongoing integration execution.Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Exceeded Guidance
Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $32.4 million, compared with $32.6 million last year, and exceeded the high end of the $28 million to $32 million guidance range. The outperformance primarily reflected stronger-than-anticipated International Farming results and solid post-acquisition performance from Calavo.
Negative Updates
Lower Avocado Selling Prices
Average per-unit avocado sales prices were 9% lower than the prior-year period, consistent with the higher industry supply environment. Management said the higher-volume environment is expected to continue affecting the pricing environment.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EBITDA Exceeded Guidance
Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $32.4 million, compared with $32.6 million last year, and exceeded the high end of the $28 million to $32 million guidance range. The outperformance primarily reflected stronger-than-anticipated International Farming results and solid post-acquisition performance from Calavo.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed the second-half adjusted EBITDA range of $84 to $88 million and expects fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA of $52 to $55 million, including a full-quarter of Calavo, driven by a greater concentration of sales from owned Peruvian crop, the seasonal ramp in blueberries, a full-quarter of Calavo, and improved avocado margin dynamics; industry volumes are expected to be at about a 10% growth rate in Q4, exportable production from owned Peru farms is expected to be 120 to 130 million pounds compared with 105 million pounds last season, with a greater portion of this year's crop expected to be sold in the fourth quarter, annualized synergies are expected to be more than $30 million and to start contributing in Q4 and build more meaningfully throughout fiscal 2027, and full year fiscal 2026 capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $45 million.Mission Produce Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Oct 2025 | Oct 2024 | Oct 2023 | Oct 2022 | Oct 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.34B | 1.39B | 1.23B | 953.90M | 1.05B | 891.70M |
| Gross Profit | 152.50M | 160.70M | 152.50M | 83.30M | 89.80M | 124.50M |
| EBITDA | 67.40M | 105.90M | 110.70M | 43.50M | -900.00K | 90.10M |
| Net Income | 1.60M | 37.70M | 36.70M | -2.80M | -34.60M | 44.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.61B | 983.00M | 971.50M | 914.80M | 879.50M | 873.50M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 47.10M | 64.80M | 58.00M | 42.90M | 52.80M | 84.50M |
| Total Debt | 518.60M | 200.90M | 217.30M | 252.70M | 214.10M | 213.30M |
| Total Liabilities | 807.00M | 363.10M | 394.40M | 386.50M | 356.60M | 339.30M |
| Stockholders Equity | 764.00M | 587.30M | 547.30M | 503.60M | 502.10M | 534.20M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -2.30M | 37.20M | 61.20M | -20.60M | -26.00M | -26.40M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 41.30M | 88.60M | 93.40M | 29.20M | 35.20M | 47.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -290.70M | -51.90M | -33.50M | -54.10M | -51.40M | -70.30M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 251.10M | -29.50M | -43.80M | 14.30M | -21.80M | -11.50M |
Mission Produce Technical Analysis
Negative
13.03
Price Trends
12.67
Negative
12.46
Negative
12.91
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.28
Positive
34.43
Neutral
44.37
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.37, above the 50-day MA of 12.67, and above the 200-day MA of 12.91, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.28 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AVO.
Mission Produce Risk Analysis
Mission Produce disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mission Produce reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Mission Produce Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $22.10B | 30.95 | 16.75% | ― | 3.83% | 38.81% | |
67 Neutral | $4.52B | 46.26 | 15.09% | ― | 11.16% | 30.78% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
60 Neutral | $15.30B | 42.15 | 7.63% | ― | 7.17% | 4.89% | |
58 Neutral | $40.37B | 22.36 | 75.46% | 2.66% | 3.91% | -2.17% | |
55 Neutral | $1.04B | 386.55 | 0.25% | ― | -6.18% | -93.36% | |
52 Neutral | $2.80B | 33.42 | 5.32% | ― | -1.99% | ― |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
AVO
Mission Produce
11.55
-0.19
-1.62%
SYY
Sysco
82.06
6.05
7.96%
CHEF
The Chefs' Warehouse
110.10
51.34
87.37%
UNFI
United Natural Foods
46.25
6.40
16.06%
PFGC
Performance Food Group
96.94
-4.82
-4.74%
USFD
US Foods Holding
102.15
26.31
34.69%
Mission Produce Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Mission Produce Unveils Five-Year Growth and Margin Plan
Positive
Oct 8, 2026
On October 8, 2026, Mission Produce hosted its 2026 Investor Day in New York City, unveiling a five-year strategy focused on mid-single-digit organic sales growth, roughly 300 basis points of margin expansion and converting over 90% of adjusted ne...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Mission Produce announces major U.S. distribution restructuring
Negative
Sep 16, 2026
Mission Produce, Inc., following its May 28, 2026 acquisition of Calavo Growers, moved on September 11, 2026 to streamline its U.S. distribution network by consolidating facilities in Swedesboro, N.J., and the Dallas area into single locations and...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Mission Produce Advances $100 Million Share Buyback Program
Positive
Jul 10, 2026
Mission Produce, Inc. previously announced on June 8, 2026, that its board of directors had authorized a $100 million stock repurchase program as part of its capital allocation strategy. During the fiscal third quarter to date, the company has rep...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.