Avista (AVA) Risk Analysis

Climate change may exacerbate existing risks related to weather and weather-related events. Potential direct effects of climate change include changes in the timing and magnitude of snowpack and streamflow, impacting hydroelectric generation; timing and magnitude of changes in electric and gas load; increased weather-related stress on, or damage to, energy infrastructure; increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events that may impact energy generation and delivery. Indirect impacts associated with climate change may include increased costs to generate electricity or secure natural gas and deliver energy to customers; impacts to the timing or amount of operating revenues; increased costs to maintain or construct energy infrastructure in adaptation to a changing climate; increased costs or inability to obtain insurance coverage; and regional impacts to the demographic makeup, economy or financial conditions of our customers. Indirect impacts also include risks associated with new and emerging laws and regulations, which could have a material adverse impact on our business and results of operations. See further discussion at "Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis – Environmental Issues and Contingencies."

Weather impacts are described in the following subtopics: - certain retail electricity and natural gas sales,- the cost of natural gas supply, and - the cost of power supply. Certain retail electricity and natural gas sales volumes vary directly with changes in temperatures. We normally have our highest retail (electric and natural gas) energy sales during the winter heating season in the first and fourth quarters of the year. We also have high electricity demand for air conditioning during the summer (third quarter). In general, warmer weather in the heating season and cooler weather in the cooling season will reduce our customers' energy demand and our retail operating revenues. The revenue and earnings impact of weather fluctuations is somewhat mitigated by our decoupling mechanisms; however, we could experience liquidity constraints during the period between when decoupling revenue is earned and when it is subsequently collected from customers through retail rates. The cost of natural gas supply is impacted by both supply-side factors (amount of natural gas production, level of natural gas in storage, volumes of natural gas imports and exports, regulatory restraints or costs on natural gas production and delivery) and demand-side factors (variations in weather, level of economic growth, availability and prices of other fuels). Prices tend to increase with higher demand during periods of cold weather. Inter-regional natural gas pipelines and competition for supply can allow demand-driven price volatility in other regions of North America to affect prices in the Pacific Northwest. Increased costs adversely affect cash flows when we purchase natural gas for retail supply at prices above the amount allowed for recovery in retail rates. We defer differences between actual natural gas supply costs and the amount currently recovered in retail rates and we are generally allowed to recover substantially all of these differences after regulatory review. However, these deferred costs require cash outflows from the time of natural gas purchases until the costs are later recovered through retail rates. The cost of power supply can be significantly affected by weather, and therefore is subject to trends in climate change. Precipitation (consisting of snowpack, its water content and runoff pattern plus rainfall) and other streamflow conditions (such as regional water storage operations) significantly affect hydroelectric generation capability. Variations in hydroelectric generation inversely affect our reliance on market purchases and thermal generation. To the extent that hydroelectric generation is less than normal, more costly power supply resources must be dispatched or acquired and the ability to realize net benefits from surplus hydroelectric wholesale sales is reduced. Wholesale prices also vary based on wind patterns as wind generation capacity is material in the Pacific Northwest but its contribution to supply is inconsistent. The price of power in the wholesale energy markets tends to be higher during periods of high regional demand, such as occurs with temperature extremes. Climate change may increase the frequency and magnitude of temperature extremes. We may need to purchase power in the wholesale market during peak price periods. The price of natural gas as fuel for natural gas-fired electric generation tends to increase during periods of high demand which are often related to temperature extremes. We may need to purchase natural gas fuel in these periods of high prices to meet electric demands. The cost of power supply during peak usage periods may be higher than the retail sales price or the amount allowed in retail rates by our regulators. To the extent that power supply costs are above the amount allowed currently in retail rates, the difference is partially absorbed by the Company in current expense and is partially deferred or shared with customers through regulatory mechanisms. However, these deferred costs require cash outflows from the time of power purchases until the costs are later recovered through retail rates. The price of power tends to be lower during periods with excess supply, such as the spring when hydroelectric conditions are usually at their maximum and various facilities are required to operate to meet environmental mandates. Oversupply can be exacerbated when intermittent resources such as wind generation produce output that may be supported by price subsidies. In extreme situations, we may be required to sell excess energy at negative prices. As a result of these combined factors, our net cost of power supply – the difference between our costs of generation and market purchases, reduced by our revenue from wholesale sales – varies significantly because of weather.

Our generation, transmission and distribution assets and the systems that monitor and operate these assets are critical infrastructure for providing service to our customers. Security threats are continuing to evolve, and our industry is subject to attempts to disrupt operations. Significant destruction or interruption of these assets and systems could prevent us from fulfilling our critical business functions, including delivering energy to customers. This could result in experiencing a loss of revenues and/or additional costs to replace or restore assets and systems, and may increase costs associated with heightened security requirements.