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Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd. (TGF) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:TGF

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd.

(ASX:TGF)

Select Model
Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:AUD 2.50â–²(14.68% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:09/06/26

The score is driven by an attractive valuation (very low P/E and high dividend yield) and supportive technical trend (price above major moving averages with positive MACD). The main offset is financial performance risk: despite a strong, low-debt balance sheet, earnings and revenue are highly volatile and cash flow conversion is weak and inconsistent.

Positive Factors
Low leverageThe absence of reported debt reduces interest burden and refinancing exposure, while the substantial equity base provides resilience through commodity and market cycles. This conservative capitalization should preserve flexibility for portfolio management and shareholder distributions over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Severe revenue volatilityThe sharp FY2026 revenue contraction demonstrates that reported operating performance is highly sensitive to portfolio outcomes and market conditions. Such instability makes earnings power difficult to forecast, complicates distribution planning, and weakens confidence that recent profitability will persist.

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd. (TGF) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%AU:TGF+12.60%EWA+13.51%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
AUD 160.65M
Dividend Yield
6.88%
Average Volume (3M)
108.96K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
2.2
Beta (1Y)
1.68
Revenue Growth
―
EPS Growth
1457.14%
Country
Australia
Employees
―
Sector
Financial
Sector Strength
68
Industry
Asset Management - Global

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Operating as an investment company, Tribeca Global Natural Resources Limited focuses its activities on infrastructure projects and is based in Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet strength (no reported debt in FY2022–FY2026 and meaningful equity base) supports financial resilience, but operating results are volatile with large revenue inconsistency (FY2026 revenue down ~86.6% YoY) and weak/uneven cash generation (FY2026 operating cash flow only ~10% of net income; prior years meaningfully negative).

Income Statement

52Neutral

Balance Sheet

83Very Positive

Cash Flow

46Neutral
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMJun 2025Jun 2025Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue20.23M20.23M4.15M-2.40M7.04M77.47M
Gross Profit20.23M20.23M138.34M-10.94M-3.40M77.47M
EBITDA27.33M17.02M0012.06M74.34M
Net Income5.02M5.02M75.94M-9.59M7.63M52.23M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets248.21M248.21M382.19M239.63M318.20M241.93M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments163.93M163.93M302.52M204.03M297.82M20.83M
Total Debt0000012.54M
Total Liabilities78.97M78.97M154.66M75.40M140.82M85.52M
Stockholders Equity169.25M169.25M227.53M164.23M177.38M156.35M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-15.63M-15.63M14.78M24.08M-23.33M6.22M
Operating Cash Flow-15.63M-15.63M14.78M24.08M-23.33M6.22M
Investing Cash Flow000000
Financing Cash Flow00-17.66M-3.56M25.22M-768.68K

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price2.18

Price Trends

50DMA2.61Negative
100DMA2.55Negative
200DMA2.58Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-0.12Positive
RSI32.05Neutral
STOCH20.00Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:TGF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.18 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.40, below the 50-day MA of 2.61, and below the 200-day MA of 2.58, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:TGF.

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

AU:TGF against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
AU:TGFAU:TGF71OutperformAUD 187.70M2.2133.58%6.88%―1457.14%
Sector *68Neutral$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
AU:PGFAU:PGF67NeutralAUD 1.93B6.3419.98%4.57%―40.23%
AU:WGBAU:WGB63NeutralAUD 729.99M-20.65-4.16%8.42%-123.14%-133.85%
AU:NGIAU:NGI62NeutralAUD 1.31B40.232.41%―2.27%-84.63%
AU:FPCAU:FPC61NeutralAUD 41.23M6.4510.39%4.02%296.18%-17.85%
AU:GFLAU:GFL39UnderperformAUD 31.60M-23.83-3.10%―-137.88%-267.38%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-20%0%20%40%AU:TGFAU:NGIAU:PGFAU:GFLAU:FPCAU:WGBDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
AU:TGF and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
AU:TGFTribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd.2.180.2613.72%
AU:NGINavigator Global Investments Ltd2.15-0.55-20.37%
AU:PGFPM Capital Global Opportunities Fund Ltd.3.170.5420.44%
AU:GFLGlobal Masters Fund Limited2.80-0.93-24.93%
AU:FPCFat Prophets Global Contrarian Fund Ltd.1.29-0.07-5.01%
AU:WGBWAM Global Ltd.2.03-0.35-14.85%

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd. Corporate Events

Tribeca Global Natural Resources posts indicative NTA update for October

Oct 26, 2026

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Limited has reported an estimated net tangible asset backing per ordinary share of $2.57 pre-tax and $2.42 post-tax as at 23 October 2026, based on 73,693,826 shares on issue. The figures, which are net of fees and ex...

Tribeca Global Natural Resources sets November date for 2026 AGM, urges early proxy voting

Oct 19, 2026

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Limited has called its 2026 Annual General Meeting for 20 November in Sydney, inviting shareholders to attend in person at The Executive Centre on Bligh Street. The company has also arranged a live audio broadcast wit...

Tribeca Global Natural Resources posts estimated NTA backing for early October

Oct 12, 2026

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd. has released an estimated net tangible asset backing per ordinary share as at 9 October 2026, reporting an unaudited pre-tax NTA of $3.08 and a post-tax NTA of $2.80 based on 73,693,826 shares on issue. The compa...

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Director Boosts Stake via Dividend Reinvestment

Oct 5, 2026

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Limited has disclosed a change in director Todd Warren’s interests in the company’s fully paid ordinary shares. Warren increased both his direct and indirect holdings through participation in the company&#...

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Director Boosts Stake via Dividend Reinvestment

Oct 5, 2026

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Limited has disclosed a change in director Nicholas Myers’ holdings following participation in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan. Myers increased his direct holding of ordinary shares from 76,394 to...

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Issues Weekly Estimated NTA Update

Oct 5, 2026

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd. (ASX: TGF) is an ASX-listed investment company focused on global natural resources, investing across listed equities, private credit and other unlisted assets under the management of Tribeca Global Resources Pty...

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Posts Indicative NTA of $3.43 Per Share

Sep 28, 2026

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Limited has reported an estimated net tangible asset backing per ordinary share of $3.43 pre-tax and $3.04 post-tax as of 25 September 2026 on an ex-dividend basis, reflecting a previously announced $0.10 per share di...

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Updates Estimated NTA Backing Post Dividend

Sep 21, 2026

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd., an ASX-listed investment company focused on global natural resources, reported an estimated net tangible asset backing per ordinary share as at 18 September 2026, excluding the effect of its recently declared di...

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Finalises DRP Details for Interim Distribution

Sep 14, 2026

Tribeca Global Natural Resources has updated its notification regarding an interim distribution for the six months ended 30 June 2026 on its ordinary fully paid shares. The update confirms key timetable details, including an ex-date of 2 September 20...

Tribeca Global Natural Resources posts estimated NTA backing for September

Sep 14, 2026

Tribeca Global Natural Resources has released an estimated net tangible asset backing per ordinary share as at 11 September 2026, reporting a pre-tax NTA of $3.53 and a post-tax NTA of $3.10 on an ex-dividend basis. The figures, which are based on 73...

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Launches On-Market Share Buy-Back

Sep 10, 2026

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd. has announced an on-market share buy-back of its ordinary fully paid shares listed on the ASX under the code TGF. The buy-back was formally notified on 10 September 2026, signalling the board’s decision to...

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Extends On-Market Share Buy-Back Program

Sep 9, 2026

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd. has announced it will continue its on-market share buy-back program, with the current program concluding and a new one commencing on 10 September 2026. The new buy-back authorises the purchase of up to 7,369,382...

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Begins DRP Share Purchases on ASX

Sep 8, 2026

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Limited has begun on-market share purchases under its Dividend Reinvestment Plan, with trading on the ASX commencing on 7 September. All brokerage and associated costs for these DRP-related acquisitions will be covere...

Tribeca Global Natural Resources posts indicative ex-dividend NTA update

Sep 7, 2026

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Limited has released an estimated net tangible asset backing per ordinary share as at 4 September 2026, reporting an ex-dividend pre-tax NTA of $3.75 and a post-tax NTA of $3.24, calculated over 73,693,826 shares on i...

Tribeca Global Natural Resources appoints Timothy Lindley as new chairman

Aug 31, 2026

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd. has appointed veteran investment banker Timothy Lindley as Non-Executive Director and Independent Chairman, effective immediately, following the resignation of Rebecca O’Dwyer from the same role. The board...

Tribeca Global Natural Resources posts indicative NTA update for late August

Aug 31, 2026

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Limited has released an indicative update on its net tangible asset backing per share as at 28 August 2026, reporting an estimated pre-tax NTA of $3.86 and post-tax NTA of $3.32 on 73,693,826 shares on issue. The comp...

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Affirms ASX Governance Compliance for 2026

Aug 28, 2026

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd. has confirmed that its corporate governance statement for the year ended 30 June 2026 is current and has been approved by the board. The statement is published on the company’s website, satisfying ASX Listi...

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Declares AUD 0.10 Interim Dividend

Aug 28, 2026

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd., an ASX-listed investment company focused on global natural resources assets through its ordinary fully paid TGF shares, aims to deliver returns via active portfolio management in commodities and related sectors....

Tribeca Global Natural Resources posts surge in profit and lifts dividend

Aug 27, 2026

Tribeca Global Natural Resources reported a sharp jump in performance for the year to 30 June 2026, with revenue from ordinary activities surging to $138.3 million from $20.2 million a year earlier. Profit from ordinary activities climbed to $109.8 m...

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Issues Indicative NTA Update for August

Aug 24, 2026

Tribeca Global Natural Resources has released an updated estimate of its net tangible asset backing per share as at 21 August 2026, reporting a pre-tax NTA of $3.78 and a post-tax NTA of $3.29 based on 73,693,826 shares on issue. The company stressed...

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Posts Indicative Mid-August NTA Estimate

Aug 17, 2026

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd. has released an estimated net tangible asset backing per ordinary share as at 14 August 2026, with a pre-tax NTA of $3.45 and a post-tax NTA of $3.06 based on 73,693,826 shares on issue. The company emphasised th...

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Posts July NTA Update Amid Volatile Returns

Aug 14, 2026

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd. reported its monthly net tangible asset statement and investment update for 31 July 2026, showing a share price of $2.34 against a pre-tax NTA per share of $3.0339 and post-tax NTA of $2.7710. The update highligh...

Tribeca Global Natural Resources posts indicative NTA update for early August

Aug 10, 2026

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Limited has released an estimated net tangible asset backing per ordinary share as at 7 August 2026, reporting a pre-tax NTA of $3.40 and a post-tax NTA of $3.03, based on 73,693,826 shares on issue. The company notes...

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Posts Estimated July NTA Per Share

Aug 3, 2026

Tribeca Global Natural Resources Limited has released an estimated net tangible asset backing per ordinary share as at 31 July 2026, reporting $3.03 pre tax and $2.77 post tax based on 73,693,826 shares on issue. The figures are provided net of fees...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Sep 06, 2026