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National Australia Bank Limited
(Sydney:NAB)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
AU$41.00
▲(7.19% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
The score is primarily constrained by financial performance risk factors—volatile cash flow and high leverage—despite solid profitability. Technicals are strong with price above major moving averages and positive MACD, but overbought signals reduce conviction. Valuation is mixed (good yield but a higher P/E), and the latest earnings call supports resilience while emphasizing higher provisioning and a more cautious near-term outlook.
Positive Factors
Business lending scale and growth
Strong business lending growth and leading SME market share deepen NAB’s customer relationships and support recurring interest and fee income. This scale can strengthen cross-selling and provide a durable platform for growth across Australian commercial banking.
Negative Factors
Persistently high leverage
NAB’s persistently high leverage leaves earnings and capital more sensitive to deterioration in borrower quality, funding costs and economic conditions. Although typical for banking, the elevated level limits flexibility when credit losses rise or wholesale funding becomes less supportive.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Business lending scale and growth
Strong business lending growth and leading SME market share deepen NAB’s customer relationships and support recurring interest and fee income. This scale can strengthen cross-selling and provide a durable platform for growth across Australian commercial banking.
Read all positive factors
National Australia Bank Limited (NAB) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$119.03B
Dividend Yield4.4%
Average Volume (3M)4.14M
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.2
Beta (1Y)1.13
Revenue Growth-8.10%
EPS Growth-10.70%
CountryAU
Employees41,880
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.00
Shares Outstanding3,117,375,000
10 Day Avg. Volume4,397,818
30 Day Avg. Volume4,141,772
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-11.24
Price to Book (P/B)2.15
Price to Sales (P/S)2.24
P/FCF Ratio19.01
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$38.38Price Target Upside0.34% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)2.12
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$22.04B
National Australia Bank Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
National Australia Bank Limited (NAB) is a prominent financial institution delivering a broad spectrum of services to individual and business clients across Australia, New Zealand, and internationally. Its operations are organized into key divisio...
How the Company Makes Money
NAB primarily makes money through its banking operations by earning income on the spread between interest received on loans and interest paid on customer deposits and wholesale funding (net interest income). Key revenue streams include: (1) Lendin...
National Australia Bank Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 03, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed but resilient picture: strong underlying operating performance (underlying profit +6.4%, revenue +3.1%, robust business lending and deposit growth, improved customer advocacy and technology progress) was offset by a large one-off $1.35bn software amortization, higher credit impairment provisions ($300m forward-looking top-up; H1 charge $706m), and elevated uncertainty from the Middle East conflict which may moderate credit growth and pressure asset quality. Capital and liquidity remain well above regulatory minima and management took prudent capital actions (DRP discount and partial underwriting). Given the substantive operating positives tempered by meaningful one-off accounting impacts and increased provisioning for geopolitical-driven risk, the overall tone is balanced and cautious.Positive Updates
Underlying Profit Growth
Underlying profit (ex notables) rose 6.4% half-on-half, driving cash earnings ex-notables up 2.3% despite a large one-off software amortization charge.
Negative Updates
Large One-off Software Capitalization Change
A change in software capitalization policy (raising threshold from $5m to $20m and reducing useful lives) triggered a one-off accelerated amortization charge of $1.35bn booked through operating expenses, causing an 18% decline in statutory profit despite underlying improvements.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Underlying Profit Growth
Underlying profit (ex notables) rose 6.4% half-on-half, driving cash earnings ex-notables up 2.3% despite a large one-off software amortization charge.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance from the call flagged a more cautious near-term outlook but stressed strong underlying momentum and specific financial actions: cash earnings (ex-notables) rose 2.3% with underlying profit up 6.4% and revenue +3.1%; cash ROE (ex-notables) was 11.6%; NIM rose 3bps (lending margin down 4bps) and CIF charge was $706m (18bps of loans) including a $300m forward-looking provison top‑up; total provisions are now ~1.68% of CRWAs with collective provisions ~1.35% and forward-looking collective overlays +$300m; balance sheet moves include March CET1 11.65% with a 1.5% DRP discount and partial underwrite to raise ~A$1.8bn (~+40bps CET1 to pro forma 12.05%), LCR 132% and NSFR 116%; business lending GLAs +11.5% YoY to A$306bn (business credit growth this half 6.9%), at‑call deposits +A$14bn in H1, transaction account balances +10.8%, proprietary home lending drawdown share up from 41.4% to 47.7% (50% in March), term issuance A$19.6bn H1 (FY target ~A$36bn), investment spend ~A$1.8bn (≈50% expensed H2) and a productivity target >A$450m for the year.National Australia Bank Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 57.93B | 60.25B | 62.16B | 51.90B | 25.87B | 20.92B |
| Gross Profit | 20.81B | 20.02B | 19.88B | 19.81B | 18.20B | 16.88B |
| EBITDA | 9.52B | 10.26B | 11.19B | 11.67B | 10.86B | 10.11B |
| Net Income | 6.10B | 6.76B | 6.96B | 7.41B | 6.89B | 6.36B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.14T | 1.11T | 1.08T | 1.06T | 1.06T | 926.19B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.77B | 166.79B | 112.94B | 2.89B | 2.67B | 26.96B |
| Total Debt | 190.00B | 289.67B | 281.87B | 289.27B | 290.64B | 276.41B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.08T | 1.05T | 1.02T | 997.69B | 996.22B | 863.41B |
| Stockholders Equity | 60.56B | 62.92B | 61.45B | 61.15B | 59.03B | 62.78B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -756.00M | 7.10B | -37.22B | -27.89B | 27.14B | -99.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 623.00M | 8.51B | -35.78B | -26.70B | 28.22B | 759.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.78B | -5.71B | 4.69B | -4.21B | -8.70B | -3.69B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -939.00M | 2.72B | 9.92B | 6.98B | 6.01B | -22.05B |
National Australia Bank Limited Technical Analysis
Negative
38.25
Price Trends
39.66
Negative
39.01
Negative
40.78
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.59
Positive
41.35
Neutral
31.08
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:NAB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 38.25 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 40.01, below the 50-day MA of 39.66, and below the 200-day MA of 40.78, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.59 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.08 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:NAB.
National Australia Bank Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | AU$110.66B | 18.74 | 8.30% | 4.55% | -5.34% | -13.04% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
63 Neutral | AU$119.03B | 19.21 | 9.88% | 4.21% | -8.10% | -10.70% | |
62 Neutral | AU$92.66B | 19.53 | 13.72% | 2.74% | 4.80% | 30.56% | |
55 Neutral | AU$6.12B | 15.64 | 5.61% | 5.70% | -5.79% | ― | |
54 Neutral | AU$115.80B | 16.83 | 9.77% | 4.15% | -3.87% | 1.20% | |
54 Neutral | AU$262.89B | 24.50 | 13.94% | 2.81% | 0.78% | 7.41% |
* Financial Sector Average
AU:NAB
National Australia Bank Limited
38.63
-2.19
-5.36%
AU:ANZ
ANZ Group Holdings
37.20
5.09
15.85%
AU:BEN
Bendigo & Adelaide Bank
10.73
-1.82
-14.51%
AU:MQG
Macquarie Group Limited
250.59
33.94
15.67%
AU:WBC
Westpac Banking
34.55
-2.23
-6.07%
AU:CBA
Commonwealth Bank of Australia
159.90
-4.05
-2.47%
National Australia Bank Limited Corporate Events
NAB Seeks ASX Quotation for US$1.75 Billion Covered Bond Issue
Aug 28, 2026
National Australia Bank Limited has applied for quotation on the ASX of a new class of fixed-rate covered bonds, expanding its suite of wholesale funding instruments targeted at institutional debt investors. The securities are identified as US$1,7...
NAB Taps Global Markets With US$1.75bn Covered Bond Issue
Aug 28, 2026
National Australia Bank has issued US$1.75 billion of covered bonds under its US$40 billion Covered Bond Programme, supported by an information memorandum dated May 2026 and related final terms. The new bonds, which form part of NAB’s broade...
National Australia Bank Updates Wholesale Debt Issuance Programme
Aug 25, 2026
National Australia Bank has updated its Debt Issuance Programme governing the issue of unsubordinated and subordinated debt instruments to wholesale investors. The refreshed information memorandum, dated 25 August 2026, underlines NAB’s cont...
NAB Publishes June 2026 Pillar 3 Regulatory Disclosure
Aug 16, 2026
National Australia Bank Limited has released its June 2026 Pillar 3 Report, fulfilling disclosure requirements under the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority’s APS 330 standard. The report is made available via NAB’s shareholder ...
NAB Issues 2026 Q3 Trading Update for Analyst Audience
Aug 16, 2026
National Australia Bank Limited, a leading Australian financial institution, offers an array of retail and business banking services, credit facilities and financial products to a wide customer base. The bank operates under Australian regulatory l...
NAB Lifts Q3 Earnings, Grows Lending Amid Emerging Customer Stress
Aug 16, 2026
National Australia Bank reported a 2% rise in third-quarter 2026 cash earnings versus the first-half quarterly average excluding a large software-related notable item, with underlying profit stable amid good volume growth and managed margins offse...
NAB’s Business and Private Banking Delivers Growth Amid Challenging Conditions
Jul 29, 2026
National Australia Bank has briefed investors on the performance of its Business and Private Banking Division for the June 2026 quarter, highlighting solid growth in lending and deposits despite a challenging economic backdrop. Business lending ba...
NAB Raises $1.8bn in Capital via DRP Underwriting and Share Plans
Jul 2, 2026
National Australia Bank has issued 22,948,164 new fully paid ordinary shares at $37.04 per share, raising approximately $1.8 billion in new Common Equity Tier 1 capital tied to its 2026 interim dividend. The capital raise includes about $850 milli...
NAB Seeks ASX Quotation for 49.8 Million New Shares
Jul 1, 2026
National Australia Bank Limited has applied for quotation on the ASX of 49,758,631 new fully paid ordinary shares. These securities are being issued under a dividend or distribution plan, reflecting the bank’s ongoing use of equity-based pro...
NAB Discloses Reduced Related-Entity Control Over Its Own Shares
Jun 30, 2026
National Australia Bank Limited has reported updated figures on the proportion of its own voting shares controlled by associated entities under an exemption granted by the corporate regulator. As at 26 June 2026, NAB’s controlled entities co...
NAB Issues Unquoted Performance Rights Under Employee Incentive Scheme
Jun 29, 2026
National Australia Bank Limited has notified the market of the issue of 32,368 unquoted performance rights under an employee incentive scheme. These securities, recorded under the NABAM performance rights description and issued on 26 June 2026, ar...
NAB Seeks ASX Quotation for New Employee Incentive Shares
Jun 29, 2026
National Australia Bank Limited has applied for quotation on the ASX of 9,452 additional ordinary fully paid shares, issued on 26 June 2026 under its employee incentive arrangements. These new securities will be quoted on the market alongside exis...
NAB Updates DRP and BSP Pricing for Interim Dividend
Jun 19, 2026
National Australia Bank has updated details of the interim dividend on its ordinary fully paid shares for the six‑month period to 31 March 2026. The update, lodged with the ASX on 19 June 2026, revises the pricing under the Dividend Reinvest...
NAB updates market on Director Ann Sherry’s securities holdings
Jun 18, 2026
National Australia Bank has disclosed a change in the interests of director Ann Caroline Sherry, in line with ASX listing rules and Australian Corporations Act requirements. The notice details her direct holdings in fully paid ordinary shares and ...
NAB Sets September 2026 Distribution Rate for Capital Notes 5
Jun 17, 2026
National Australia Bank has announced the next quarterly distribution on its NAB Capital Notes 5 (ASX: NABPH), with a fully franked cash payment of A$1.4059 per note to be paid on 17 September 2026. The distribution, which relates to the period fr...
NAB Sets September 2026 Distribution for Capital Notes 6
Jun 17, 2026
National Australia Bank has set the next quarterly distribution on its NAB Capital Notes 6, a listed Additional Tier 1 hybrid security, detailing the payment terms for investors. The notes, which pay a floating rate linked to the three‑month...
NAB Sets September 2026 Distribution for Capital Notes 8
Jun 17, 2026
National Australia Bank Limited has announced a quarterly fully franked distribution on its NAB Capital Notes 8, a listed hybrid security, reflecting its ongoing use of capital notes to manage funding and maintain regulatory capital. The notes, wh...
NAB sets September 2026 distribution for Capital Notes 7
Jun 17, 2026
National Australia Bank has announced a quarterly distribution for its NAB Capital Notes 7, a listed hybrid security trading under code NABPJ. The notes pay a floating rate linked to the three‑month Bank Bill Rate plus a margin, providing in...
NAB ceases to be substantial holder in Spenda after share issue dilutes stake
Jun 17, 2026
National Australia Bank Limited and associated entities have notified Spenda Limited that they have ceased to be a substantial holder in the company as of 15 June 2026, following a dilution of their relevant interest. The change arose because Spen...
National Australia Bank Redeems Entire NABPF Capital Note Issue
Jun 17, 2026
National Australia Bank Limited has redeemed all 18,740,582 of its NABPF Capital Notes, a listed perpetual, non-cumulative, floating-rate debt security paying BBSW plus a 4.00% margin. The cessation of these quoted notes reflects a repayment or re...
NAB Redeems All Outstanding NAB Capital Notes 3
Jun 17, 2026
National Australia Bank Limited has completed the redemption of all outstanding NAB Capital Notes 3, repaying investors $100 per note in line with its previously issued redemption notice. The bank also paid a final distribution of $1.4438 per note...
NAB issues US$1bn subordinated notes with conditional equity conversion
Jun 4, 2026
National Australia Bank will issue US$1 billion of fixed reset subordinated notes due June 2037 under its global medium term note programme, structured as regulatory capital that can convert into fully paid ordinary shares if the prudential regula...
NAB to Suspend and Redeem NAB Capital Notes 3 on ASX
Jun 3, 2026
National Australia Bank Limited will have its NAB Capital Notes 3 (ASX code NABPF) suspended from quotation on the ASX at the close of trading on 3 June 2026, under Listing Rule 17.2. The suspension is a procedural step ahead of the planned redemp...
NAB Reports Lapse of 2,124 Performance Rights in Capital Update
Jun 1, 2026
National Australia Bank Limited has disclosed changes to its issued capital, notifying the market of the cessation of a tranche of performance rights. The announcement, lodged as an Appendix 3H, reflects adjustments to the bank’s securities ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.