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National Australia Bank Limited
(Sydney:NAB)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
AU$40.00
▲(4.58% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
The score is primarily constrained by financial performance risk factors—volatile cash flow and high leverage—despite solid profitability. Technicals are strong with price above major moving averages and positive MACD, but overbought signals reduce conviction. Valuation is mixed (good yield but a higher P/E), and the latest earnings call supports resilience while emphasizing higher provisioning and a more cautious near-term outlook.
Positive Factors
Business Lending Position
Strong business-lending growth and leading SME exposure reinforce NAB’s relevance to commercial customers. This scale can support recurring interest and fee income, deepen customer relationships, and provide a durable platform for growth across business banking.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
Persistently high leverage makes NAB’s balance sheet more sensitive to deterioration in credit quality and funding markets. Although leverage is characteristic of banking, the elevated level can amplify earnings pressure and constrain flexibility during a prolonged downturn.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Business Lending Position
Strong business-lending growth and leading SME exposure reinforce NAB’s relevance to commercial customers. This scale can support recurring interest and fee income, deepen customer relationships, and provide a durable platform for growth across business banking.
Read all positive factors
National Australia Bank Limited (NAB) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$125.26B
Dividend Yield4.22%
Average Volume (3M)4.99M
Price to Earnings (P/E)20.3
Beta (1Y)1.09
Revenue Growth-8.10%
EPS Growth-10.70%
CountryAU
Employees41,880
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.00
Shares Outstanding3,117,477,000
10 Day Avg. Volume5,364,352
30 Day Avg. Volume4,991,051
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-11.24
Price to Book (P/B)2.15
Price to Sales (P/S)2.24
P/FCF Ratio19.01
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$39.10Price Target Upside2.22% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)2.43
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$22.79B
National Australia Bank Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
National Australia Bank Limited (NAB) is a prominent financial institution delivering a broad spectrum of services to individual and business clients across Australia, New Zealand, and internationally. Its operations are organized into key divisio...
How the Company Makes Money
NAB primarily makes money through its banking operations by earning income on the spread between interest received on loans and interest paid on customer deposits and wholesale funding (net interest income). Key revenue streams include: (1) Lendin...
National Australia Bank Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 03, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed but resilient picture: strong underlying operating performance (underlying profit +6.4%, revenue +3.1%, robust business lending and deposit growth, improved customer advocacy and technology progress) was offset by a large one-off $1.35bn software amortization, higher credit impairment provisions ($300m forward-looking top-up; H1 charge $706m), and elevated uncertainty from the Middle East conflict which may moderate credit growth and pressure asset quality. Capital and liquidity remain well above regulatory minima and management took prudent capital actions (DRP discount and partial underwriting). Given the substantive operating positives tempered by meaningful one-off accounting impacts and increased provisioning for geopolitical-driven risk, the overall tone is balanced and cautious.Positive Updates
Underlying Profit Growth
Underlying profit (ex notables) rose 6.4% half-on-half, driving cash earnings ex-notables up 2.3% despite a large one-off software amortization charge.
Negative Updates
Large One-off Software Capitalization Change
A change in software capitalization policy (raising threshold from $5m to $20m and reducing useful lives) triggered a one-off accelerated amortization charge of $1.35bn booked through operating expenses, causing an 18% decline in statutory profit despite underlying improvements.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Underlying Profit Growth
Underlying profit (ex notables) rose 6.4% half-on-half, driving cash earnings ex-notables up 2.3% despite a large one-off software amortization charge.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance from the call flagged a more cautious near-term outlook but stressed strong underlying momentum and specific financial actions: cash earnings (ex-notables) rose 2.3% with underlying profit up 6.4% and revenue +3.1%; cash ROE (ex-notables) was 11.6%; NIM rose 3bps (lending margin down 4bps) and CIF charge was $706m (18bps of loans) including a $300m forward-looking provison top‑up; total provisions are now ~1.68% of CRWAs with collective provisions ~1.35% and forward-looking collective overlays +$300m; balance sheet moves include March CET1 11.65% with a 1.5% DRP discount and partial underwrite to raise ~A$1.8bn (~+40bps CET1 to pro forma 12.05%), LCR 132% and NSFR 116%; business lending GLAs +11.5% YoY to A$306bn (business credit growth this half 6.9%), at‑call deposits +A$14bn in H1, transaction account balances +10.8%, proprietary home lending drawdown share up from 41.4% to 47.7% (50% in March), term issuance A$19.6bn H1 (FY target ~A$36bn), investment spend ~A$1.8bn (≈50% expensed H2) and a productivity target >A$450m for the year.National Australia Bank Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 57.93B | 60.25B | 62.16B | 51.90B | 25.87B | 20.92B |
| Gross Profit | 20.81B | 20.02B | 19.88B | 19.81B | 18.20B | 16.88B |
| EBITDA | 9.52B | 10.26B | 11.19B | 11.67B | 10.86B | 10.11B |
| Net Income | 6.10B | 6.76B | 6.96B | 7.41B | 6.89B | 6.36B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.14T | 1.11T | 1.08T | 1.06T | 1.06T | 926.19B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.77B | 166.79B | 112.94B | 2.89B | 2.67B | 26.96B |
| Total Debt | 190.00B | 289.67B | 281.87B | 289.27B | 290.64B | 276.41B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.08T | 1.05T | 1.02T | 997.69B | 996.22B | 863.41B |
| Stockholders Equity | 60.56B | 62.92B | 61.45B | 61.15B | 59.03B | 62.78B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -756.00M | 7.10B | -37.22B | -27.89B | 27.14B | -99.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 623.00M | 8.51B | -35.78B | -26.70B | 28.22B | 759.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.78B | -5.71B | 4.69B | -4.21B | -8.70B | -3.69B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -939.00M | 2.72B | 9.92B | 6.98B | 6.01B | -22.05B |
National Australia Bank Limited Technical Analysis
Positive
38.25
Price Trends
38.81
Positive
39.13
Positive
40.46
Negative
Market Momentum
0.49
Negative
56.33
Neutral
85.23
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:NAB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 38.25 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.18, below the 50-day MA of 38.81, and below the 200-day MA of 40.46, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.49 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.23 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:NAB.
National Australia Bank Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | AU$120.09B | 20.27 | 8.30% | 4.16% | -5.34% | -13.04% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
63 Neutral | AU$125.26B | 20.28 | 9.88% | 4.22% | -8.10% | -10.70% | |
62 Neutral | AU$91.46B | 19.72 | 13.72% | 2.82% | 4.80% | 30.56% | |
55 Neutral | AU$6.10B | 15.94 | 5.61% | 6.00% | -5.79% | ― | |
55 Neutral | AU$123.59B | 17.80 | 9.77% | 4.26% | -3.87% | 1.20% | |
54 Neutral | AU$270.86B | 25.27 | 13.94% | 3.12% | 0.78% | 7.41% |
* Financial Sector Average
AU:NAB
National Australia Bank Limited
40.29
-2.52
-5.90%
AU:ANZ
ANZ Group Holdings
39.86
4.37
12.32%
AU:BEN
Bendigo & Adelaide Bank
10.50
-1.51
-12.60%
AU:MQG
Macquarie Group Limited
248.51
29.08
13.25%
AU:WBC
Westpac Banking
36.18
-1.80
-4.75%
AU:CBA
Commonwealth Bank of Australia
162.02
-6.85
-4.06%
National Australia Bank Limited Corporate Events
NAB Corrects Late Disclosure of Director Warwick Hunt’s Shareholding
Oct 6, 2026
National Australia Bank has disclosed that an Appendix 3Y notice relating to director Warwick Hunt was lodged outside the required ASX timeframe due to an inadvertent omission of 60 shares from his reported holding. The oversight stemmed from Hunt...
NAB Director Warwick Hunt Increases Indirect Shareholding via Family Trust
Oct 6, 2026
National Australia Bank has disclosed a change in the shareholding of director Warwick Ean Hunt, reflecting a small on-market purchase of additional company shares held through The Hunt Family Trust. The transaction marginally increases Hunt’...
NAB Discloses Minimal Group-Controlled Voting Stake Under ASIC Exemption
Oct 2, 2026
National Australia Bank has disclosed that its controlled entities collectively hold and can exercise voting or disposal powers over 471,918 ordinary shares, representing 0.0152% of its issued share capital of 3,117,476,988 shares as at 30 Septemb...
NAB Group Ends Substantial Holding in Spenda After Custody Transfers
Sep 29, 2026
National Australia Bank Limited, through its associated entity JBWere Limited, has been a substantial holder in Spenda Limited, an Australian financial technology firm whose shares trade on the ASX. JBWere provides custody and portfolio services t...
NAB Sets December Quarterly Distribution for Capital Notes 8
Sep 17, 2026
National Australia Bank has announced the next quarterly distribution on its NAB Capital Notes 8, a hybrid security listed as NABPK on the ASX. The notes pay a floating rate linked to the three-month bank bill swap rate, plus a margin, with distri...
NAB Sets Quarterly Distribution for Capital Notes 7
Sep 17, 2026
National Australia Bank Limited has announced a quarterly distribution for holders of NAB Capital Notes 7 (ASX: NABPJ), a perpetual, non-cumulative hybrid security linked to the three-month Bank Bill Swap Rate. The notes, fully franked, form part ...
NAB Sets December Quarterly Distribution on Capital Notes 5
Sep 17, 2026
NAB has announced a quarterly distribution for its ASX-listed NABPH Capital Notes, a perpetual, non-cumulative hybrid security tied to the three-month bank bill rate plus a margin. The distribution relates to the period ending 16 December 2026 and...
NAB Sets 5.49% Quarterly Distribution on Capital Notes 6
Sep 17, 2026
National Australia Bank has announced a quarterly fully franked distribution on its NAB Capital Notes 6, a perpetual, non-cumulative hybrid security listed as NABPI on the ASX. The notes’ distribution is linked to the three‑month Bank ...
NAB Issues ¥15bn Subordinated Notes with Equity Conversion Feature
Sep 14, 2026
National Australia Bank Limited has issued JPY 15 billion of subordinated fixed reset notes due September 2036 under its global medium term note programme, with the securities structured to convert into ordinary shares if APRA deems the bank non&#...
NAB Sets Interest and Record Dates for US$1.75bn 2031 Covered Bonds
Sep 7, 2026
National Australia Bank has issued U.S.$1.75 billion of 4.610% covered bonds due 26 August 2031 under its U.S.$40 billion covered bond programme, reflecting its continued use of secured wholesale funding. The bonds are listed on the ASX under code...
NAB Seeks ASX Quotation for New Shares Issued Under Employee Incentive Scheme
Sep 1, 2026
National Australia Bank has applied to the ASX for quotation of 101,950 new ordinary fully paid shares issued on 28 August 2026 under an employee incentive scheme. The additional quoted securities modestly increase NAB’s listed share capital...
National Australia Bank Appoints Anna Bligh to Board, Discloses Initial Shareholding
Sep 1, 2026
National Australia Bank Limited has appointed Anna Maria Bligh as a director effective 1 September 2026, further strengthening its board with an experienced corporate leader. The appointment reflects the bank’s ongoing efforts to bolster gov...
NAB Seeks ASX Quotation for US$1.75 Billion Covered Bond Issue
Aug 28, 2026
National Australia Bank Limited has applied for quotation on the ASX of a new class of fixed-rate covered bonds, expanding its suite of wholesale funding instruments targeted at institutional debt investors. The securities are identified as US$1,7...
NAB Taps Global Markets With US$1.75bn Covered Bond Issue
Aug 28, 2026
National Australia Bank has issued US$1.75 billion of covered bonds under its US$40 billion Covered Bond Programme, supported by an information memorandum dated May 2026 and related final terms. The new bonds, which form part of NAB’s broade...
National Australia Bank Updates Wholesale Debt Issuance Programme
Aug 25, 2026
National Australia Bank has updated its Debt Issuance Programme governing the issue of unsubordinated and subordinated debt instruments to wholesale investors. The refreshed information memorandum, dated 25 August 2026, underlines NAB’s cont...
NAB Publishes June 2026 Pillar 3 Regulatory Disclosure
Aug 16, 2026
National Australia Bank Limited has released its June 2026 Pillar 3 Report, fulfilling disclosure requirements under the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority’s APS 330 standard. The report is made available via NAB’s shareholder ...
NAB Issues 2026 Q3 Trading Update for Analyst Audience
Aug 16, 2026
National Australia Bank Limited, a leading Australian financial institution, offers an array of retail and business banking services, credit facilities and financial products to a wide customer base. The bank operates under Australian regulatory l...
NAB Lifts Q3 Earnings, Grows Lending Amid Emerging Customer Stress
Aug 16, 2026
National Australia Bank reported a 2% rise in third-quarter 2026 cash earnings versus the first-half quarterly average excluding a large software-related notable item, with underlying profit stable amid good volume growth and managed margins offse...
NAB’s Business and Private Banking Delivers Growth Amid Challenging Conditions
Jul 29, 2026
National Australia Bank has briefed investors on the performance of its Business and Private Banking Division for the June 2026 quarter, highlighting solid growth in lending and deposits despite a challenging economic backdrop. Business lending ba...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.