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Mesoblast Limited
(Sydney:MSB)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
AU$2.50
▲(6.38% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/29/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (ongoing losses and persistent negative free cash flow), despite supportive balance sheet leverage. Offsetting this, technicals show a constructive uptrend with moderate momentum, and the earnings call conveyed strong Ryoncil launch traction, high gross margins, reiterated revenue guidance, and multiple near-term pipeline/regulatory catalysts. Valuation remains challenging to assess on earnings given the negative P/E and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Ryoncil Commercial Traction
Ryoncil has established an initial commercial revenue base and management expects further growth. This gives Mesoblast a clearer path from clinical development toward recurring product revenue, improving operating leverage as adoption expands.
Negative Factors
Persistent Losses and Cash Burn
Mesoblast remains dependent on external funding while operating cash flow is negative and profitability has not been demonstrated. Continued losses can constrain investment capacity and increase financing or dilution risk before products generate sustainable cash.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Ryoncil Commercial Traction
Ryoncil has established an initial commercial revenue base and management expects further growth. This gives Mesoblast a clearer path from clinical development toward recurring product revenue, improving operating leverage as adoption expands.
Read all positive factors
Mesoblast Limited (MSB) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$3.13B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.33M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.60
Revenue Growth555.67%
EPS Growth49.08%
CountryAU
Employees108
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.07
Shares Outstanding1,298,748,200
10 Day Avg. Volume4,518,407
30 Day Avg. Volume4,325,729
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-27.18
Price to Book (P/B)2.09
Price to Sales (P/S)72.48
P/FCF Ratio-24.59
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$3.67Price Target Upside56.17% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)<0.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$200.02M
Mesoblast Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mesoblast Limited, an Australian enterprise established in Melbourne in 2004, is dedicated to developing innovative regenerative medicine products. The company's global reach extends to the United States, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and Switzer...
How the Company Makes Money
Mesoblast’s revenue model has historically been characteristic of a clinical-stage biotech: it does not primarily rely on broad, recurring product sales, and instead generates revenue (when recognized) mainly through (1) collaboration and licensin...
Mesoblast Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 27, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 04, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated strong commercial momentum from the Ryoncil launch (USD 49M H1 revenue), industry-leading gross margins (93%), broad payer coverage, rapid center onboarding and multiple near-term regulatory and clinical milestones (Revascor BLA next quarter; back pain enrollment completion and 2027 BLA). The company also strengthened its balance sheet with USD 130M cash and a USD 125M credit facility. Offsetting risks include a sharp increase in R&D and SG&A spending, reliance on Ryoncil for most revenues, ongoing manufacturing/CMC items ahead of filings, and near-term cash usage (USD 30.3M H1) with a tranche deadline in June 2026. Overall, the positive operational, clinical and financial developments materially outweigh the execution and expense risks.Positive Updates
Successful Ryoncil Launch and Revenue
Ryoncil launched April 2025 and generated net product revenues of USD 49.0M in H1 FY'26, driving total company revenues of USD 51.3M (Ryoncil ≈95.5% of revenues). Company projects full-year Ryoncil net revenues of USD 110M–120M for FY'26 (implying substantial H2 growth vs H1).
Negative Updates
Substantial Increase in R&D Spend
R&D expenses rose to USD 46.2M versus USD 5.1M reported prior-year (an increase of ~806%), though prior-year figures were skewed by a USD 23M inventory provision reversal (normalized prior-year R&D ≈USD 18.1M). Against the normalized base this represents a ~156% increase, driven by clinical programs (GVHD, back pain, LVAD) and BLA/manufacturing work.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Successful Ryoncil Launch and Revenue
Ryoncil launched April 2025 and generated net product revenues of USD 49.0M in H1 FY'26, driving total company revenues of USD 51.3M (Ryoncil ≈95.5% of revenues). Company projects full-year Ryoncil net revenues of USD 110M–120M for FY'26 (implying substantial H2 growth vs H1).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated FY2026 guidance and laid out key metrics: H1 revenues were $51.3M with Ryoncil net product revenues of $49M and a 93% gross margin (gross margin excl. amortization ~$44.2M); direct selling costs $7.7M, R&D $46.2M, SG&A $28.5M, net loss $40.2M, and H1 operating cash use $30.3M. Cash was $130M at Dec 31 and Mesoblast has a $125M credit facility (first tranche $75M drawn, $50M available through June 2026); the subordinated royalty facility is expected to be fully repaid by mid‑2026 and operating cash use is expected to decline in H2. For Ryoncil they expect full‑year net revenues of $110–120M, target ~20% pediatric penetration by year‑end (based on a ~375‑patient base and a 40% peak‑share assumption), have onboarded 49 centers (30 with formulary listings; 13 using Optum Frontier), secured coverage for >280M lives with Medicaid in all states and J‑code J3402 effective Oct 1, and plan label expansion into adults (market ~3x pediatric). Pipeline milestones include rexlemestrocel‑L (404‑patient Phase III completed; confirmatory 300‑patient trial enrolling with enrollment expected by Mar/Apr and a 2027 data/BLA timeline) and Revascor (LVAD II: 159‑patient 2:1 RCT plus supportive 30‑patient study showing ~5‑fold reduction in major bleeding through 12 months and survival benefit) with a BLA filing for full approval planned next quarter.Mesoblast Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
35
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 65.38M | 17.20M | 5.90M | 7.50M | 10.21M | 7.46M |
| Gross Profit | -34.88M | 12.07M | -35.17M | -47.42M | -53.36M | -78.28M |
| EBITDA | -64.34M | -73.66M | -56.08M | -58.55M | -76.57M | -84.65M |
| Net Income | -94.37M | -102.14M | -87.96M | -81.89M | -91.35M | -98.81M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 782.31M | 784.68M | 669.15M | 669.41M | 662.14M | 744.72M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 129.57M | 161.16M | 62.56M | 70.92M | 60.03M | 136.88M |
| Total Debt | 135.14M | 128.16M | 118.92M | 116.50M | 106.91M | 105.50M |
| Total Liabilities | 207.62M | 187.24M | 188.80M | 167.58M | 165.10M | 163.32M |
| Stockholders Equity | 574.68M | 597.44M | 480.36M | 501.84M | 497.04M | 581.40M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -60.87M | -50.68M | -48.79M | -63.58M | -66.01M | -108.33M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -59.76M | -49.95M | -48.46M | -63.27M | -65.78M | -106.68M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.11M | 120.00K | -97.00K | -194.00K | -232.00K | -1.65M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 150.50M | 147.34M | 40.25M | 74.50M | -9.87M | 114.47M |
Mesoblast Limited Technical Analysis
Positive
2.35
Price Trends
2.23
Positive
2.16
Positive
2.31
Positive
Market Momentum
0.05
Negative
55.98
Neutral
47.01
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:MSB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.35 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.30, above the 50-day MA of 2.23, and above the 200-day MA of 2.31, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:MSB.
Mesoblast Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
58 Neutral | AU$3.13B | -23.93 | -16.10% | ― | 555.67% | 49.08% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
51 Neutral | AU$12.36M | -2.36 | -161.62% | ― | -4.24% | 33.39% | |
46 Neutral | AU$5.32M | -1.38 | -29.91% | ― | 82.28% | 13.33% | |
43 Neutral | AU$22.30M | -17.47 | -49.25% | ― | ― | 25.00% | |
41 Neutral | AU$2.68M | -0.30 | -179.37% | ― | ― | 24.59% | |
39 Underperform | AU$205.61M | -14.83 | -44.80% | ― | 49.03% | -232.68% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
AU:MSB
Mesoblast Limited
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12.84%
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Mesoblast Limited Corporate Events
Mesoblast revenue surges on RYONCIL launch as late‑stage pipeline advances
Aug 26, 2026
Mesoblast reported a sharp increase in full‑year revenue to US$120.3 million, driven by the successful U.S. launch of RYONCIL, which generated US$115.2 million in net sales and lifted gross profit to US$103.6 million. Despite higher research...
Mesoblast Flags Risks Around 2026 Outlook and Stem Cell Strategy
Aug 26, 2026
Mesoblast issued a financial results and operational update for the period ended June 30, 2026, framing its outlook through extensive cautionary language on forward-looking statements. The company highlights that expectations on sales, regulatory ...
Mesoblast Files 2026 Form 20-F, Affirms Status as Well-Known Issuer
Aug 26, 2026
Mesoblast Limited has filed its annual report on Form 20-F with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2026, confirming its status as a well-known seasoned issuer and large accelerated filer. The filing indi...
Mesoblast Increases Director Philip Krause’s Equity-Based Incentives
Aug 24, 2026
Mesoblast Limited has disclosed a change in Director Philip R. Krause’s interests, noting an increase in his holdings of company options. Following shareholder approval at the 2025 annual general meeting, Krause received 875,000 additional o...
Mesoblast Issues 875,000 Unquoted Employee Incentive Options
Aug 24, 2026
Mesoblast Limited has notified the market of the issue of 875,000 unquoted options under its employee incentive scheme. These options, trading under the code MSBAI, have various expiry dates and exercise prices and were issued on August 19, 2026.T...
Mesoblast to Outline 2026 Results and Pipeline Progress in Investor Webcast
Aug 24, 2026
Mesoblast will host a webcast to discuss operational highlights and financial results for the full year ended June 30, 2026, with live access and an archived version available via its website for investors. The update is expected to shed light on ...
Mesoblast Reaches Pivotal Phase 3 Milestone in Chronic Back Pain Trial
Aug 17, 2026
Mesoblast has completed treatment of 350 patients in its pivotal Phase 3 trial testing rexlemestrocel‑L for chronic low back pain caused by degenerative disc disease, expanding enrollment from 300 after strong investigator demand. The random...
State Street Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Mesoblast
Aug 7, 2026
Institutional investor group State Street Corporation and its subsidiaries have filed a notice stating they have ceased to be a substantial holder in Mesoblast Limited as of 5 August 2026. The filing under Australia’s Corporations Act indica...
State Street Group Cuts Mesoblast Stake Below Substantial Holder Threshold
Aug 3, 2026
State Street Corporation and several of its asset management subsidiaries have filed a notice indicating they have ceased to be substantial holders in Mesoblast Limited as of July 30, 2026. The change reflects a reduction in their relevant voting ...
State Street Exits Substantial Holding in Mesoblast
Jul 24, 2026
Mesoblast Limited has disclosed that State Street Corporation, through its asset management arms including State Street Global Advisors and related subsidiaries, has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the company as of July 22, 2026. The no...
Mesoblast Cancels Over 1.2 Million Lapsed Options
Jul 14, 2026
Mesoblast Limited has notified the market of the cessation of 1,237,237 options, identified as MSBAI, which expired after the lapse of conditional rights attached to these securities. The options ceased on July 7, 2026, because the conditions requ...
Mesoblast Expands Ordinary Share Base Through Conversion of Unquoted Securities
Jul 14, 2026
Mesoblast Limited has notified the market of the issuance of 2,331,200 new ordinary fully paid shares following the exercise or conversion of previously unquoted options or convertible securities. The new shares, issued on June 24, 2026, increase ...
Mesoblast Seeks ASX Quotation for 2.25 Million Incentive Shares
Jul 14, 2026
Mesoblast Limited has applied for quotation on the ASX of 2,250,000 ordinary fully paid shares issued on June 23, 2026, under an employee incentive scheme. The new securities, to be traded under the existing MSB code, modestly increase the company...
Mesoblast Issues 8.2 Million Unquoted Employee Options
Jul 14, 2026
Mesoblast Limited has notified the market of the issue of 8,211,600 unquoted options under its employee incentive scheme, with various exercise prices and expiry dates, effective July 7, 2026. The options, which are not intended to be quoted on th...
Mesoblast CEO’s Duplicative Options Lapse With No Change to Shareholding
Jul 14, 2026
Mesoblast has disclosed a change in the interests of chief executive and director Dr Silviu Itescu, following the lapse of a portion of his options package. The company reported that 278,571 options lapsed because they were tied to a milestone tha...
Mesoblast Hits 300‑Patient Milestone in Pivotal Back Pain Trial
Jul 14, 2026
Mesoblast has reached its target of at least 300 treated patients in a pivotal Phase 3 randomized trial of rexlemestrocel‑L for chronic low back pain associated with degenerative disc disease. The study is designed to confirm durable pain re...
Mesoblast posts US$115m first-year Ryoncil revenue and strengthens capital position
Jul 10, 2026
Mesoblast reported net revenue of US$36 million from Ryoncil in the June quarter, bringing first full-year net revenue from the therapy to US$115 million since its launch. Management said uptake has exceeded initial projections, driven by strong m...
Mesoblast Advances Rexlemestrocel‑L BLA for High‑Risk LVAD Heart Failure Patients
Jul 1, 2026
Mesoblast has received a U.S. FDA Biologics License Application filing number and requested modular review for rexlemestrocel‑L, an allogeneic cell therapy aimed at preventing life‑threatening gastrointestinal bleeding linked to right ...
JPMorgan exits substantial holder position in Mesoblast
Jun 28, 2026
JPMorgan Chase Co. and its affiliates have notified Mesoblast Limited that they have ceased to be a substantial holder in the company as of June 24, 2026, after a series of changes in their relevant interests involving securities lending, investm...
Mesoblast Taps US$50m Low-Cost Facility to Retire High-Cost Debt and Fund Growth
Jun 25, 2026
Mesoblast has secured US$50 million from a five-year, non-dilutive credit facility provided by director and existing shareholder Dr. Gregory George, adding to its US$122 million cash balance as of March 30, 2026. The funds will be used to retire h...
Mesoblast Highlights Growth Prospects and Risks in CEO Investor Presentation
Jun 2, 2026
Mesoblast used an ASX CEO Connect presentation to outline its expectations around sales growth, regulatory approvals, manufacturing scalability, and the commercial potential of its adult stem cell therapies. The company emphasized the importance o...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.