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Medibank Private
(Sydney:MPL)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
AU$5.50
â–˛(17.77% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:02/19/26
The score is driven mainly by strong financial footing (low leverage and consistently high ROE) and a generally positive earnings call with maintained guidance and dividend growth. Offsetting factors are volatile cash generation, only mixed technical confirmation (still below the 200-day average and slightly negative MACD), and a relatively high P/E despite a supportive dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet & strong ROE
A low leverage profile (debt/equity <0.10) combined with sustained ~20%+ ROE gives Medibank durable financial resilience. This supports regulatory capital buffers, consistent dividend capacity and the flexibility to fund organic investment or Tier‑2 debt for strategic M&A without stressing solvency.
Negative Factors
Volatile free cash flow
A large decline in free cash flow and volatile operating cash flow weaken funding predictability. Persistent swings reduce confidence in funding dividends, M&A and reinvestment from operations, increasing likelihood of external funding or tighter capital management during adverse claim cycles.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet & strong ROE
A low leverage profile (debt/equity <0.10) combined with sustained ~20%+ ROE gives Medibank durable financial resilience. This supports regulatory capital buffers, consistent dividend capacity and the flexibility to fund organic investment or Tier‑2 debt for strategic M&A without stressing solvency.
Read all positive factors
Medibank Private (MPL) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$13.69B
Dividend Yield3.73%
Average Volume (3M)5.96M
Price to Earnings (P/E)29.6
Beta (1Y)0.20
Revenue Growth5.81%
EPS Growth-5.34%
CountryAU
Employees3,220
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryMedical - Healthcare Plans
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.17
Shares Outstanding2,754,003,200
10 Day Avg. Volume5,399,409
30 Day Avg. Volume5,964,521
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.00
Price to Book (P/B)5.95
Price to Sales (P/S)1.63
P/FCF Ratio37.62
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$5.00Price Target Upside7.07% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.26
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$9.66B
Medibank Private Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Medibank Private Limited (MPL.AX) is an Australian firm offering private health insurance alongside a variety of health services. The company operates through two primary divisions. Its Health Insurance division provides a comprehensive suite of p...
How the Company Makes Money
Medibank primarily makes money through health insurance operations and, to a lesser extent, through health services activities.
1) Health insurance premiums (core revenue stream)
- The company collects recurring premiums from members for hospital...
Medibank Private Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed positive operational momentum and strategic progress: group operating profit rose 6%, Medibank Health delivered strong double-digit revenue and profit growth, policyholder growth improved and the company completed a transformative primary care acquisition while maintaining a strong capital position and lifting the interim dividend. Headwinds exist—expense inflation, a revenue-mix shift toward lower-tier products, elevated claims dynamics in extras, negative hospital utilization (partly COVID-driven), lower investment income and competitive pressure from aggregators—but management presented mitigation plans, unchanged guidance ranges, and clear capacity to invest further in health businesses. Overall, the positives (earnings growth, Medibank Health acceleration, M&A scale, capital strength and customer engagement) outweigh the manageable near-term challenges.Positive Updates
Group earnings growth
Group operating profit increased 6% to $381.7m; underlying EPS (normalizing investment returns) was $0.108 per share, broadly in line with prior year.
Negative Updates
Higher operating expenses and reinvestment
Operating expenses increased 5.4% to $329.4m; expense ratio was 7.7% (up 10bps). FY '26 expense guidance is $690m–$695m, reflecting inflation, volume impacts and continued investment (partially offset by targeted productivity savings).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Group earnings growth
Group operating profit increased 6% to $381.7m; underlying EPS (normalizing investment returns) was $0.108 per share, broadly in line with prior year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Medibank kept FY‑26 guidance largely unchanged: resident claims per policy unit growth of 2.6–2.9% and an expectation that 1H revenue‑mix headwind (~150bps) will be better for the full year; group operating expenses of $690–695m for FY‑26 (including $10m of productivity savings) and non‑recurring cyber/IT security costs of ~ $35m; Medibank Health organic operating profit to grow in FY‑26 broadly in line with 1H26 plus ~A$6m from the Better Medical acquisition in 2H, with a FY‑30 Medibank Health earnings aspiration of at least A$200m and capacity to raise Tier‑2 debt; capital remains strong at 1.9x PCA and a 13.8% capital ratio (above the 10–12% target while holding capital against a A$250m APRA adjustment); interim dividend A$0.083 per share (up 6.4%, 76.8% payout of underlying NPAT); underlying EPS A$0.108 and underlying net investment return 2.74% (annualized spread to RBA cash rate 184bps).Medibank Private Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 8.76B | 8.56B | 8.02B | 7.40B | 7.09B | 6.98B |
| Gross Profit | 8.76B | 8.56B | 8.02B | 7.40B | 7.10B | 7.03B |
| EBITDA | 741.00M | 750.80M | 806.50M | 520.60M | 635.10M | 715.00M |
| Net Income | 463.40M | 500.80M | 492.50M | 511.10M | 393.90M | 441.20M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.26B | 4.70B | 4.69B | 4.39B | 4.55B | 3.92B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 453.30M | 873.90M | 927.90M | 695.10M | 831.30M | 671.70M |
| Total Debt | 481.30M | 209.00M | 218.30M | 55.30M | 76.90M | 93.40M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.92B | 2.36B | 2.38B | 2.30B | 2.61B | 2.02B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.35B | 2.34B | 2.31B | 2.08B | 1.95B | 1.91B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 343.30M | 369.70M | 810.90M | 216.30M | 927.60M | 463.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 355.90M | 380.90M | 868.50M | 258.20M | 962.70M | 498.20M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 136.70M | 110.50M | -110.80M | -15.20M | -637.80M | -322.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -559.30M | -533.80M | -487.30M | -419.10M | -399.90M | -375.80M |
Medibank Private Technical Analysis
Positive
4.67
Price Trends
4.76
Positive
4.58
Positive
4.63
Positive
Market Momentum
0.06
Negative
61.10
Neutral
67.30
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:MPL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.67 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.87, below the 50-day MA of 4.76, and above the 200-day MA of 4.63, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:MPL.
Medibank Private Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
AU:MPL
Medibank Private
4.97
0.02
0.42%
AU:NHF
NIB Holdings Ltd
7.06
0.33
4.98%
Medibank Private Corporate Events
Medibank updates market on director Michael Wilkins’ indirect shareholding structure
Jun 30, 2026
Medibank Private has lodged an Appendix 3Y notice with the ASX detailing a change in the indirect interests of director Michael Wilkins in the company’s ordinary shares. The filing clarifies that while the number of Medibank shares in which ...
Medibank lifts policyholder growth as value-focused strategy drives earnings momentum
May 4, 2026
Medibank Private reports continued growth in its resident private health insurance business, with policyholder numbers up 22.4k in the nine months to 31 March 2026, supported by stronger Medibank brand performance and soft hospital claims utilisat...
Medibank Performance Rights Lapse Reduces Potential Equity Dilution
Apr 7, 2026
Medibank Private has notified the market of the lapse of 118,539 performance rights, recorded as MPLAA securities on the ASX. The rights ceased on 31 March 2026 because the conditions attached to them were not satisfied or had become incapable of ...
Medibank Issues New Unquoted Performance Rights Under Staff Incentive Plan
Apr 6, 2026
Medibank Private has notified the market of the issue of 22,184 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme, with an effective issue date of 30 March 2026. The additional performance rights, which are not intended to be quoted ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.