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Medibank Private
(Sydney:MPL)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
AU$5.00
▲(3.52% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/18/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial strength (low leverage and strong ROE, with steady revenue growth) and a supportive dividend yield. These positives are tempered by weak current technical momentum (below key moving averages with a negative MACD) and some volatility/data-quality flags in operating profit and cash flow measures.
Positive Factors
Steady Revenue Growth
Steady revenue expansion indicates continued demand for Medibank’s private health insurance and related services. A growing premium base can support operating scale, strengthen customer reach, and provide a durable platform for earnings growth over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Operating Profit Volatility
Volatile operating profit suggests that earnings remain sensitive to pricing, claims, and healthcare cost cycles. This can make future margins less predictable and may limit the consistency of earnings growth, even while revenue continues to rise across the business.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Steady Revenue Growth
Steady revenue expansion indicates continued demand for Medibank’s private health insurance and related services. A growing premium base can support operating scale, strengthen customer reach, and provide a durable platform for earnings growth over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Medibank Private (MPL) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$13.74B
Dividend Yield3.85%
Average Volume (3M)5.98M
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.7
Beta (1Y)0.27
Revenue Growth9.29%
EPS Growth27.49%
CountryAU
Employees5,001
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Life
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.23
Shares Outstanding2,754,003,200
10 Day Avg. Volume6,574,390
30 Day Avg. Volume5,981,509
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.78
Price to Book (P/B)5.63
Price to Sales (P/S)1.47
P/FCF Ratio22.70
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$5.04Price Target Upside4.41% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$9.66B
Medibank Private Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Medibank Private Limited (MPL.AX) is an Australian firm offering private health insurance alongside a variety of health services. The company operates through two primary divisions. Its Health Insurance division provides a comprehensive suite of p...
How the Company Makes Money
MPL primarily makes money by underwriting private health insurance and providing health-related services.
1) Health insurance premiums (core revenue stream)
- The largest source of revenue is premium income collected from members who purchase hos...
Medibank Private Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 24, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed positive operational momentum and strategic progress: group operating profit rose 6%, Medibank Health delivered strong double-digit revenue and profit growth, policyholder growth improved and the company completed a transformative primary care acquisition while maintaining a strong capital position and lifting the interim dividend. Headwinds exist—expense inflation, a revenue-mix shift toward lower-tier products, elevated claims dynamics in extras, negative hospital utilization (partly COVID-driven), lower investment income and competitive pressure from aggregators—but management presented mitigation plans, unchanged guidance ranges, and clear capacity to invest further in health businesses. Overall, the positives (earnings growth, Medibank Health acceleration, M&A scale, capital strength and customer engagement) outweigh the manageable near-term challenges.Positive Updates
Group earnings growth
Group operating profit increased 6% to $381.7m; underlying EPS (normalizing investment returns) was $0.108 per share, broadly in line with prior year.
Negative Updates
Higher operating expenses and reinvestment
Operating expenses increased 5.4% to $329.4m; expense ratio was 7.7% (up 10bps). FY '26 expense guidance is $690m–$695m, reflecting inflation, volume impacts and continued investment (partially offset by targeted productivity savings).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Group earnings growth
Group operating profit increased 6% to $381.7m; underlying EPS (normalizing investment returns) was $0.108 per share, broadly in line with prior year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Medibank kept FY‑26 guidance largely unchanged: resident claims per policy unit growth of 2.6–2.9% and an expectation that 1H revenue‑mix headwind (~150bps) will be better for the full year; group operating expenses of $690–695m for FY‑26 (including $10m of productivity savings) and non‑recurring cyber/IT security costs of ~ $35m; Medibank Health organic operating profit to grow in FY‑26 broadly in line with 1H26 plus ~A$6m from the Better Medical acquisition in 2H, with a FY‑30 Medibank Health earnings aspiration of at least A$200m and capacity to raise Tier‑2 debt; capital remains strong at 1.9x PCA and a 13.8% capital ratio (above the 10–12% target while holding capital against a A$250m APRA adjustment); interim dividend A$0.083 per share (up 6.4%, 76.8% payout of underlying NPAT); underlying EPS A$0.108 and underlying net investment return 2.74% (annualized spread to RBA cash rate 184bps).Medibank Private Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
83
Very Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 9.33B | 8.56B | 8.02B | 7.40B | 7.09B |
| Gross Profit | 1.60B | 8.56B | 8.02B | 7.40B | 7.10B |
| EBITDA | 1.05B | 750.80M | 806.50M | 520.60M | 635.10M |
| Net Income | 638.70M | 500.80M | 492.50M | 511.10M | 393.90M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.75B | 4.70B | 4.69B | 4.39B | 4.55B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 570.40M | 873.90M | 927.90M | 695.10M | 831.30M |
| Total Debt | 273.90M | 209.00M | 218.30M | 55.30M | 76.90M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.34B | 2.36B | 2.38B | 2.30B | 2.61B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.43B | 2.34B | 2.31B | 2.08B | 1.95B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 603.10M | 369.70M | 810.90M | 216.30M | 927.60M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 622.50M | 380.90M | 868.50M | 258.20M | 962.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -120.80M | 110.50M | -110.80M | -15.20M | -637.80M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -579.90M | -533.80M | -487.30M | -419.10M | -399.90M |
Medibank Private Technical Analysis
Positive
4.83
Price Trends
4.67
Positive
4.80
Positive
4.61
Positive
Market Momentum
0.07
Negative
74.07
Negative
96.08
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:MPL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.83 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.67, above the 50-day MA of 4.67, and above the 200-day MA of 4.61, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.07 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.08 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:MPL.
Medibank Private Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
AU:MPL
Medibank Private
4.99
0.40
8.64%
AU:NHF
NIB Holdings Ltd
6.69
-0.33
-4.66%
Medibank Private Corporate Events
Medibank Private Sets Out 2026 Corporate Governance Framework
Sep 15, 2026
Medibank Private has released its 2026 Corporate Governance Statement outlining the roles and responsibilities of its Board and management, along with the overall governance structure supporting its health and wellbeing business. The document deta...
Medibank Publishes 2026 Annual Report and Governance Disclosures
Sep 15, 2026
Medibank Private Limited has released its 2026 Annual Report, Corporate Governance Statement and Appendix 4G to the market in line with ASX listing rules. The board-authorised documents detail the insurer’s financial performance and adherenc...
Medibank Reports Lapse of 469,436 Performance Rights
Sep 7, 2026
Medibank Private Limited has notified the market of the cessation of 469,436 performance rights, recorded as MPLAA securities, following the lapse of conditional rights that were not satisfied as of 1 September 2026. The announcement reflects an a...
Medibank Issues Over 1 Million New Shares on Equity Conversion
Sep 6, 2026
Medibank Private has issued 1,035,408 new fully paid ordinary shares following the conversion of previously unquoted equity securities. The move modestly increases the company’s share base, reflecting the exercise of options or conversion of...
Medibank discloses updated performance rights for director David Koczkar
Sep 6, 2026
Medibank Private has notified the market of a change in director David Koczkar’s interests in securities, in line with ASX Listing Rule 3.19A.2 requirements. The notice details adjustments to his holdings of performance rights granted under ...
Medibank Reports Lapse of 402,000 Performance Rights
Sep 3, 2026
Medibank Private has reported the lapse of 402,082 performance rights, designated as MPLAA securities, after the conditions attached to those rights were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. The cessation of these securities, effective ...
Medibank Clarifies No Change in Director’s Overall Shareholding
Sep 1, 2026
Medibank has reported a change in the structure of director Peter Everingham’s indirect shareholding without any alteration to his total holding of ordinary shares. The update reflects a reallocation of his existing Medibank shares between e...
Medibank Updates Market on Director Jacqueline Hey’s Increased Shareholding
Aug 27, 2026
Medibank Private has disclosed a change in director Jacqueline Hey’s interests in the company’s securities, as required under ASX Listing Rule 3.19A.2 and the Corporations Act. The notice details that her relevant interest is held indi...
Medibank Private Issues 2026 Full-Year Results Investor Presentation With Risk and Liability Cautions
Aug 19, 2026
Medibank Private has released its full-year 2026 results investor presentation, outlining general information on the MPL Group and its activities as at 30 June 2026. The document emphasises that the material is a summary to be read with the compan...
Medibank lifts profit, dividend as health services expansion offsets investment drag
Aug 19, 2026
Medibank Private reported a 2.9% rise in underlying net profit after tax to $636.8 million for FY26, supported by 6.7% growth in group operating profit to $813.5 million and disciplined cost control. The group paid $6.9 billion in claims and deliv...
Medibank Private declares interim dividend of AUD 0.109 per share
Aug 19, 2026
Medibank Private Limited has announced a new interim dividend for holders of its ordinary fully paid shares, reinforcing its role as a major income-generating stock in the Australian health insurance sector. The distribution relates to the six-mon...
Medibank Private posts 27.5% profit jump and lifts FY26 dividends
Aug 19, 2026
Medibank Private has reported a strong financial performance for the year ended 30 June 2026, with health insurance revenue rising 8.0 percent to 8,652.2 million dollars and other operating revenue climbing 38.3 percent. Total revenue excluding ne...
Medibank Clears 29,940 Lapsed Performance Rights From Capital
Jul 7, 2026
Medibank Private has reported the cessation of 29,940 performance rights, identified under ASX code MPLAA, following the lapse of conditional rights that failed to meet required satisfaction criteria by 30 June 2026. The notification reflects an a...
Medibank updates market on director Michael Wilkins’ indirect shareholding structure
Jun 30, 2026
Medibank Private has lodged an Appendix 3Y notice with the ASX detailing a change in the indirect interests of director Michael Wilkins in the company’s ordinary shares. The filing clarifies that while the number of Medibank shares in which ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.