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Metro Mining Limited
(Sydney:MMI)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.82
â–¼(-44.15% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/29/26
The score is primarily supported by the 2025 financial turnaround (profitability and free cash flow improvement) and very low P/E valuation. These positives are partially offset by weak technicals (price below key moving averages and negative MACD) and earnings-call risks around cost pressures, a missed EBITDA target, and ongoing market/Guinea uncertainty despite maintained guidance.
Positive Factors
2025 earnings turnaround
The 2025 earnings turnaround shows substantially stronger operating leverage, with higher revenue and margins restoring profitability after several loss-making years. If maintained, this improved earnings base can fund operations, support investment and strengthen Metro’s financial resilience.
Negative Factors
Earnings durability remains unproven
The sharp improvement is encouraging but has not yet demonstrated consistency across the operating cycle. A history of losses and volatility means future profitability remains sensitive to volumes, pricing and costs, making the new earnings level less certain over coming quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
2025 earnings turnaround
The 2025 earnings turnaround shows substantially stronger operating leverage, with higher revenue and margins restoring profitability after several loss-making years. If maintained, this improved earnings base can fund operations, support investment and strengthen Metro’s financial resilience.
Read all positive factors
Metro Mining Limited (MMI) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$247.01M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.15M
Price to Earnings (P/E)0.6
Beta (1Y)1.36
Revenue Growth-10.48%
EPS Growth-98.30%
CountryAU
Employees115
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.41
Shares Outstanding308,767,850
10 Day Avg. Volume1,917,110
30 Day Avg. Volume1,150,699
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.12
Price to Sales (P/S)0.06
P/FCF Ratio0.42
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$2.18Price Target Upside47.96% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.05
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$351.20M
Metro Mining Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Metro Mining Limited, along with its subsidiaries, functions as a mineral exploration and extraction enterprise operating across Australia and China. The company's primary focus involves prospecting for deposits of coal and bauxite ores. A signifi...
How the Company Makes Money
Metro Mining makes money primarily by selling bauxite to customers under offtake/sales contracts and spot sales, with revenue largely driven by shipped volumes and realised bauxite pricing (typically influenced by bauxite/alumina market conditions...
Metro Mining Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 04, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was predominantly positive. Management highlighted record quarterly tonnage, improved operating consistency, stronger waste-clearing performance, customer additions, expanded stockpile capacity, a strengthened balance sheet, maintained 6.6 million to 7.1 million-ton guidance, and improved pricing for the current quarter. These positives were tempered by weaker quarter-two pricing, higher diesel and freight costs, a missed quarterly EBITDA target, maintenance-related disruption to Ikamba, market oversupply and Guinea uncertainty, and a serious but non-fatal safety incident.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Tonnage and Improved Operational Resilience
Metro Mining delivered a record quarter from a tonnage perspective despite a large cyclone and significant waves affecting the shipping channel. The company returned online in April, restarted barging in the first week of April, and said its response demonstrated increased resilience to external weather events.
Negative Updates
Cyclone and Marine Disruption
A large cyclone prevented Metro from achieving its planned early start, while significant waves affected the shipping channel. Management said the channel damage was probably worse than the comparable marine event in the prior year.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Tonnage and Improved Operational Resilience
Metro Mining delivered a record quarter from a tonnage perspective despite a large cyclone and significant waves affecting the shipping channel. The company returned online in April, restarted barging in the first week of April, and said its response demonstrated increased resilience to external weather events.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Metro Mining is still targeting that 6.6 million-7.1 million sort of guidance, with 7 million the big nameplate number, and is aiming for roughly around a double-digit margin and about a AUD 9-AUD 10 EBITDA margin; the second half is where it expects to go hard, with a 5 million ton run rate, $30 delivered into the market, and more like 700 tons, 800 tons a month up to that sort of 900 tons per month type run rate, while freight cover is roughly 80%-90% for the rest of this year at sub $10 freight rates, and the company expects to be close to cash neutral, to be net cash, with share-buyback activity in the very near future and a dividend policy of distributing at least 20% of cash flow after the debt servicing, et cetera, subject to any other kind of call on the cash.Metro Mining Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 332.07M | 378.36M | 307.34M | 235.84M | 177.90M | 160.14M |
| Gross Profit | 21.72M | 69.59M | 35.46M | 12.95M | -31.53M | -30.14M |
| EBITDA | 28.46M | 126.22M | 19.89M | 19.45M | -25.07M | -79.54M |
| Net Income | 2.19M | 142.33M | -22.00M | -13.48M | -50.12M | -105.50M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 327.23M | 361.37M | 243.21M | 169.00M | 129.53M | 152.27M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 24.82M | 62.84M | 36.57M | 12.15M | 12.02M | 13.88M |
| Total Debt | 72.30M | 116.45M | 110.10M | 101.14M | 59.61M | 67.36M |
| Total Liabilities | 159.33M | 174.50M | 202.60M | 159.04M | 110.59M | 110.27M |
| Stockholders Equity | 167.90M | 186.87M | 40.60M | 9.95M | 18.94M | 41.99M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 35.08M | 55.02M | -37.00K | -142.00K | -11.22M | -25.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 46.34M | 65.79M | 29.34M | 12.32M | -1.19M | -22.38M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -13.81M | -23.07M | -59.47M | -36.31M | -6.69M | -3.67M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -43.68M | -24.41M | 53.96M | 27.96M | 7.62M | 9.16M |
Metro Mining Limited Technical Analysis
Negative
1.47
Price Trends
1.16
Negative
1.34
Negative
1.35
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.13
Negative
32.46
Neutral
59.52
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:MMI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.47 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.89, above the 50-day MA of 1.16, and above the 200-day MA of 1.35, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 32.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:MMI.
Metro Mining Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | AU$491.46M | 13.09 | 6.55% | 5.20% | -1.75% | -5.88% | |
69 Neutral | AU$247.01M | 0.57 | 1.23% | ― | -10.48% | -98.30% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
51 Neutral | AU$171.97M | 3.58 | 7.74% | 3.70% | -13.27% | ― | |
46 Neutral | AU$21.19M | -0.25 | -943.96% | 12.16% | 397.37% | -578.07% | |
45 Neutral | AU$363.87M | -24.22 | -25.67% | ― | ― | -146.15% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:MMI
Metro Mining Limited
0.80
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Metro Mining Limited Corporate Events
Metro Mining calls shareholder webinar on quarterly activities
Oct 28, 2026
Metro Mining has invited shareholders to a webinar presentation on 29 October 2026, where its CEO and CFO will discuss the company’s July–September 2026 quarterly activities and operational performance. The recorded session will later ...
Metro Mining Shifts Corporate Headquarters to Brisbane CBD
Oct 19, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has updated investors that its registered office and principal place of business have been relocated to Level 16, 260 Queen Street in Brisbane, Queensland, effective 19 October 2026. The company’s telephone contact detai...
Metro Mining Flags Guidance Review After Bauxite Hills Operational Disruptions
Oct 11, 2026
Metro Mining reported that its Bauxite Hills Mine shipped 659 thousand wet metric tonnes of bauxite in September 2026, bringing year-to-date shipments to 4.013 million tonnes, but warned that full-year volume guidance is under review. The company ...
Metro Mining Seeks ASX Quotation for New Employee Incentive Shares
Oct 2, 2026
Metro Mining Limited is an Australia-listed resources company focused on the mining sector, with its ordinary fully paid shares traded on the ASX under the ticker MMI. The company uses employee incentive schemes as part of its capital management a...
Metro Mining Lifts August Bauxite Shipments, Reaffirms 2026 Guidance
Sep 16, 2026
Metro Mining has reported a strong operational performance at its Bauxite Hills Mine, with 756 thousand wet metric tonnes of bauxite shipped in August 2026, an 8% increase on the prior month as the Ikamba offshore floating terminal returned to ful...
Metro Mining Seeks ASX Quotation for New Employee Incentive Shares
Sep 15, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has applied for ASX quotation of 43,166 ordinary fully paid shares issued under its employee incentive scheme. The new securities, dated 15 September 2026, reflect ongoing use of equity incentives and will modestly increase th...
Metro Mining Seeks ASX Quotation for Employee Incentive Shares
Sep 15, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has applied for the quotation of 268,092 new ordinary fully paid shares on the ASX, with an issue date of 15 September 2026. The shares have been issued under an employee incentive scheme, reflecting the company’s ongoin...
Metro Mining Seeks ASX Quotation for New Employee Incentive Shares
Sep 9, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 82,732 new ordinary fully paid shares. The securities were issued on 8 September 2026 under an employee incentive scheme and will be quoted on the market, modestly increasing the company...
Metro Mining Seeks ASX Quotation for Incentive Scheme Shares
Sep 8, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has applied for the quotation of 38,245 new ordinary fully paid shares on the ASX, issued on September 2, 2026.The securities were issued under an employee incentive scheme and will be quoted, indicating a modest increase in s...
Metro Mining Seeks ASX Quotation for New Employee Incentive Shares
Sep 8, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has applied for the quotation of 28,675 new ordinary fully paid shares on the ASX, issued on 7 September 2026 under its employee incentive scheme. The modest share issuance slightly increases the company’s quoted capital...
Metro Mining Seeks ASX Quotation for Employee Incentive Shares
Sep 4, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 107,500 ordinary fully paid shares, following the cessation of transfer restrictions on securities previously issued under an employee incentive scheme. The new securities, issued on Sep...
Metro Mining posts record shipments but swings to loss amid weak bauxite prices
Aug 28, 2026
Metro Mining has reported record half-year shipments of 1.9 million wet metric tonnes from its Bauxite Hills Mine, a modest year-on-year increase achieved despite an extended wet season and a cyclone-induced site evacuation. Operational resilience...
Metro Mining Swings to Underlying Loss Despite Record Shipments
Aug 28, 2026
Metro Mining Limited reported a sharp deterioration in half-year financial performance to 30 June 2026, with revenue from ordinary activities down 32% to A$98.7 million and a loss after tax of A$20.4 million, while underlying EBITDA swung to a los...
Metro Mining lifts waste stripping and maintains shipments despite terminal outage
Aug 17, 2026
Metro Mining, a bauxite producer focused on its Bauxite Hills Mine in Cape York, reported steady operational performance in July 2026 despite a temporary outage at its offshore floating terminal Ikamba. The mine continues to deliver high-alumina b...
Metro Mining Sets Record Q2 Bauxite Shipments Amid Volatile Freight and Aluminium Markets
Jul 30, 2026
Metro Mining Limited, an Australian bauxite producer supplying Chinese alumina refineries, operates transhipment and barge loading infrastructure to move bulk cargoes from Queensland. Its fixed freight arrangements and focus on grade control, prod...
Metro Mining to Brief Shareholders on June Quarter in Investor Webinar
Jul 29, 2026
Metro Mining Limited will host a shareholder webinar presented by CEO and managing director Simon Wensley and CFO Nathan Quinlin to discuss the company’s June 2026 quarterly report. The session is scheduled for late July and will be recorded...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.