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Metro Mining Limited
(Sydney:MMI)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
AU$1.50
▲(2.04% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
The score is driven primarily by the sharp 2025 financial turnaround (profitability and free cash flow) and a strongly positive earnings-call outlook (higher 2026 volume target, balance-sheet repair, buyback, and risk-hedging actions). These positives are partially offset by mixed technical momentum and the need to see the improved earnings and cash conversion sustained given prior-year volatility.
Positive Factors
2025 Profitability Turnaround
The sharp 2025 earnings recovery shows stronger operating leverage and materially improved profitability. If maintained, the higher margin base can support reinvestment, debt reduction and stronger resilience across the bauxite cycle.
Negative Factors
Unproven Earnings Durability
The 2025 turnaround is significant but follows a prolonged period of losses and volatility. The weaker operating-cash conversion means investors still need evidence that reported profits can translate into repeatable cash generation through changing conditions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
2025 Profitability Turnaround
The sharp 2025 earnings recovery shows stronger operating leverage and materially improved profitability. If maintained, the higher margin base can support reinvestment, debt reduction and stronger resilience across the bauxite cycle.
Read all positive factors
Metro Mining Limited (MMI) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$431.80M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)465.89K
Price to Earnings (P/E)1.0
Beta (1Y)1.49
Revenue Growth-10.48%
EPS Growth-98.30%
CountryAU
Employees115
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.41
Shares Outstanding308,425,600
10 Day Avg. Volume430,401
30 Day Avg. Volume465,892
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.12
Price to Sales (P/S)0.06
P/FCF Ratio0.42
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$2.75Price Target Upside87.07% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$418.83M
Metro Mining Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Metro Mining Limited, along with its subsidiaries, functions as a mineral exploration and extraction enterprise operating across Australia and China. The company's primary focus involves prospecting for deposits of coal and bauxite ores. A signifi...
How the Company Makes Money
Metro Mining primarily makes money by producing and selling bauxite to customers under offtake/sales arrangements. Revenue is generated when bauxite is mined, transported to port, and shipped to buyers, with sales typically priced per tonne and in...
Metro Mining Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 04, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial trajectory: double‑digit production growth (9%), a record underlying EBITDA (~$73M, nearly +100% YoY), significant balance‑sheet repair (>$23M debt repaid) and robust hedging, tax shield and capital‑return plans (5% buyback). The primary negatives were weather‑related lost volumes, operational variability that constrained full realization of capacity, and some near‑term cash timing/Ikamba dry‑dock outlays. Management outlined clear remediation actions (asset upgrades, new operating system, targeted channel works) and reiterated a 7M+ tonnes 2026 target. On balance, the highlights materially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Production Increase and 2026 Target
Production rose 9% year‑on‑year to approximately 6.2 million tonnes in FY2025 (management reference point). The company targets 7.0+ million tonnes for 2026 as flow‑sheet elements have demonstrated required capacity and variability is being addressed.
Negative Updates
Weather and Channel‑Related Production Shortfalls
Severe Easter weather event caused channel edge collapse and reduced 2025 production by an estimated 150,000–200,000 tonnes. Additionally, inability to load the final vessel in December cost ~170,000 tonnes. Combined lost volumes are roughly 320,000–370,000 tonnes, which contributed to missing the net cash milestone by a small margin.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Production Increase and 2026 Target
Production rose 9% year‑on‑year to approximately 6.2 million tonnes in FY2025 (management reference point). The company targets 7.0+ million tonnes for 2026 as flow‑sheet elements have demonstrated required capacity and variability is being addressed.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to 7+ million tonnes for 2026 (up from 6.2 Mt in 2025, a 9% increase year‑on‑year) as it drives economies of scale and lower cost‑curve positioning; H1 2025 margins exceeded ~$30/tonne and FY25 delivered a record underlying EBITDA of $73M (≈100% YoY improvement) with strong free cash flow. The company is essentially net‑cash after repaying >$23M of debt (cash $57.5M vs debt $58.9M), will run a 12‑month on‑market buyback targeting retirement of 5% of shares, and expects to utilise ~ $184M of gross carryforward tax losses through 2026 (not likely to be tax‑paying until H2 2027). Risk reduction measures include hedging ~75% of net USD exposure around A$0.64–0.65, multi‑year freight contracts (2–4 years) that are AUD ~2–3/tonne “in the money” for 2026, planning for typical wet‑season holding cash burn of ~ $20M/quarter (Ikamba dry‑docking cash outlays are incremental but largely provided for in FY25 with material payments expected around Apr–May), and operational changes aimed at recapturing volumes lost in 2025 (circa 150–200k t from an Easter channel event plus ~170k t from an unshipped December vessel).Metro Mining Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 332.07M | 378.36M | 307.34M | 235.84M | 177.90M | 160.14M |
| Gross Profit | 21.72M | 69.59M | 35.46M | 12.95M | -31.53M | -30.14M |
| EBITDA | 28.46M | 126.22M | 19.89M | 19.45M | -25.07M | -79.54M |
| Net Income | 2.19M | 142.33M | -22.00M | -13.48M | -50.12M | -105.50M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 327.23M | 361.37M | 243.21M | 169.00M | 129.53M | 152.27M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 24.82M | 62.84M | 36.57M | 12.15M | 12.02M | 13.88M |
| Total Debt | 72.30M | 116.45M | 110.10M | 101.14M | 59.61M | 67.36M |
| Total Liabilities | 159.33M | 174.50M | 202.60M | 159.04M | 110.59M | 110.27M |
| Stockholders Equity | 167.90M | 186.87M | 40.60M | 9.95M | 18.94M | 41.99M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 35.08M | 55.02M | -37.00K | -142.00K | -11.22M | -25.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 46.34M | 65.79M | 29.34M | 12.32M | -1.19M | -22.38M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -13.81M | -23.07M | -59.47M | -36.31M | -6.69M | -3.67M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -43.68M | -24.41M | 53.96M | 27.96M | 7.62M | 9.16M |
Metro Mining Limited Technical Analysis
Positive
1.47
Price Trends
1.46
Negative
1.46
Negative
1.41
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.03
Positive
48.88
Neutral
64.07
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:MMI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.47 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.40, above the 50-day MA of 1.46, and above the 200-day MA of 1.41, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:MMI.
Metro Mining Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | AU$431.80M | 0.96 | 1.23% | ― | -10.48% | -98.30% | |
69 Neutral | AU$471.80M | 13.09 | 6.55% | 5.20% | -1.75% | -6.37% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
46 Neutral | AU$156.69M | 3.40 | 7.74% | 3.70% | -13.27% | ― | |
44 Neutral | AU$492.17M | -64.06 | -14.35% | ― | ― | 92.57% | |
44 Neutral | AU$326.99M | -10.64 | -10.21% | 11.67% | 294.23% | 37.64% | |
37 Underperform | AU$17.84M | -0.23 | -158.13% | 12.16% | ― | -777.65% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:MMI
Metro Mining Limited
1.38
-0.28
-16.87%
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0.02
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AU:ASM
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1.17
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Metro Mining Limited Corporate Events
Metro Mining lifts waste stripping and maintains shipments despite terminal outage
Aug 17, 2026
Metro Mining, a bauxite producer focused on its Bauxite Hills Mine in Cape York, reported steady operational performance in July 2026 despite a temporary outage at its offshore floating terminal Ikamba. The mine continues to deliver high-alumina b...
Metro Mining Sets Record Q2 Bauxite Shipments Amid Volatile Freight and Aluminium Markets
Jul 30, 2026
Metro Mining Limited, an Australian bauxite producer supplying Chinese alumina refineries, operates transhipment and barge loading infrastructure to move bulk cargoes from Queensland. Its fixed freight arrangements and focus on grade control, prod...
Metro Mining to Brief Shareholders on June Quarter in Investor Webinar
Jul 29, 2026
Metro Mining Limited will host a shareholder webinar presented by CEO and managing director Simon Wensley and CFO Nathan Quinlin to discuss the company’s June 2026 quarterly report. The session is scheduled for late July and will be recorded...
Metro Mining Issues Investor Update With Emphasis on Risk and Disclosure
Jul 22, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has issued an investor update presentation intended to provide general information on the company, its subsidiaries, and its bauxite-focused operations. The document clarifies that it is not an offer or solicitation for securi...
Metro Mining Seeks ASX Quotation for New Employee Incentive Shares
Jul 15, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 447,408 ordinary fully paid shares, issued on 30 June 2026 under an employee incentive scheme. The move modestly increases the company’s free-floating equity and reflects ongoing u...
Metro Mining posts record Q2 bauxite shipments and ramps up stripping at Bauxite Hills
Jul 7, 2026
Metro Mining has reported a strong operational performance at its Bauxite Hills Mine in Q2 2026, shipping 779 thousand wet metric tonnes (WMT) in June, up 29% on May, and a record 1.8 million WMT for the quarter, 7% higher than the same period in ...
Metro Mining Seeks ASX Quotation for New Incentive Shares
Jul 3, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has applied for quotation of 29,495 new ordinary fully paid shares on the ASX, issued on June 30, 2026 under an employee incentive scheme. The modest share issuance reflects ongoing use of equity-based remuneration, with limit...
Metro Mining Corrects Performance Rights After Share Consolidation Rounding Error
Jul 1, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has updated its notification to the ASX regarding unquoted equity securities, specifically correcting performance rights held on behalf of executive Simon Wensley. The adjustment addresses a rounding error that arose from a pr...
Metro Mining Details New Performance Rights Grant to Managing Director
Jun 30, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has updated the market on changes to Managing Director Simon Wensley’s interests in the company’s securities, detailing a fresh grant of 849,141 performance rights under its Employee Incentive Plan. The new rights,...
Metro Mining Corrects Holder Details for KMP Performance Rights
Jun 30, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has filed an updated Appendix 3G to notify the market of changes related to unquoted equity securities, specifically performance rights tied to key management personnel. The update clarifies that the performance rights previou...
Metro Mining Corrects Holder Details for KMP Performance Rights
Jun 30, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has updated its Appendix 3G filing to correct the recorded holder of certain unquoted performance rights linked to key management personnel. The change clarifies that the performance rights associated with KMP Simon Wensley ar...
Metro Mining Issues Over 1.2 Million Unquoted Performance Rights Under Incentive Scheme
Jun 26, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has notified the market of the issuance of 1,227,982 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme, effective 15 June 2026. These performance rights, which will not be quoted on the ASX, form part of the comp...
Metro Mining Issues New Unquoted Performance Rights Under Incentive Plan
Jun 26, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has notified the market of the issue of 1,659,362 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme. The new securities, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX, were issued on 16 June 2026 and reflect the...
Metro Mining appoints new General Counsel and Company Secretary to support growth phase
Jun 25, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has appointed Rudi Cohrssen as its new General Counsel and Company Secretary, effective 1 July 2026, bringing extensive cross‑jurisdictional experience in corporate, commercial, environmental and natural resources law, a...
Metro Mining Seeks ASX Quotation for Employee Incentive Shares
Jun 24, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has applied for quotation on the ASX of 64,550 new ordinary fully paid shares, issued on June 11, 2026. The securities have been created under an employee incentive scheme and will be fully quoted, indicating ongoing use of eq...
Metro Mining Ramps Up Bauxite Hills Output as Shipping Capacity Restored
Jun 8, 2026
Metro Mining reported a strong operational rebound at its Bauxite Hills Mine in May 2026, shipping 604 thousand wet metric tonnes of bauxite, a 45% increase on April, after the offshore floating terminal Ikamba returned from dry dock and restored ...
Metro Mining Updates Investor Presentation After Minor Correction
Jun 3, 2026
Metro Mining has issued an updated investor presentation after making a minor correction to a slide heading in a version released earlier the same day. The revised materials, approved by the company’s General Counsel and Company Secretary, p...
Metro Mining Issues Investor Update with Risk and Disclosure Emphasis
Jun 3, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has released an investor update presentation intended solely to provide general information about the company and its operations, without constituting an offer or invitation to buy securities. The document stresses that it is ...
Metro Mining Director Jo-Anne Scarini Steps Down
Jun 1, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has announced that director Jo-Anne Scarini has ceased to be a director of the company as of 30 May 2026. The final notice records that Scarini holds 16,129 ordinary shares in Metro Mining, with no additional indirect holdings...
Metro Mining Director Jo-Anne Scarini Resigns Amid Period of Growth
May 31, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has announced the resignation of non-executive director Jo-Anne Scarini, effective 30 May 2026, ending a tenure that began in October 2024. Scarini served as chair of the Audit and Risk Committee and sat on the People and Cult...
Metro Mining Director Increases Equity Stake via Performance Rights Grant
May 29, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has disclosed a change in the interests of director Paul Thomas Lucas, detailing an issue of additional performance rights as part of his remuneration package. The filing outlines that Lucas received 15,091 performance rights ...
Metro Mining Shifts Director Fees into Performance Rights for Douglas Ritchie
May 29, 2026
Metro Mining has disclosed a change in director Douglas Ritchie’s interests, with the issuance of 118,113 performance rights in lieu of his cash director’s fees for the 12 months to 30 June 2026. The performance rights, approved by sha...
Metro Mining Issues New Tranche of Unquoted Performance Rights
May 29, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has notified the market of the issue of 133,204 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme. The new performance rights, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX, were issued on 22 May 2026 and reflec...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.