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Elevra Lithium
(Sydney:ELV)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
AU$3.50
▼(-57.83% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/16/26
The score is held down primarily by weak cash flow and low-quality/volatile profitability despite a comparatively stronger balance sheet. Technicals are severely bearish with the stock far below key moving averages, reinforcing downside risk. Valuation looks optically cheap on P/E, and the earnings call was mixed-to-slightly positive due to improved operations and funded expansion progress, but higher costs/capex and weak cash conversion limit the uplift.
Positive Factors
Portfolio focus and liquidity
The Ewoyaa disposal simplifies Elevra’s portfolio, removes its remaining development funding commitment, and provides $71 million before fees and taxes. Redirecting capital toward North American assets, Moblan and the NAL expansion can improve strategic focus and financial flexibility.
Negative Factors
Persistent cash burn
Sustained negative operating and free cash flow means reported earnings have not yet translated into internally generated funding. If this pattern continues, Elevra may have less flexibility to fund expansion, absorb operational setbacks, or support its broader growth program.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Portfolio focus and liquidity
The Ewoyaa disposal simplifies Elevra’s portfolio, removes its remaining development funding commitment, and provides $71 million before fees and taxes. Redirecting capital toward North American assets, Moblan and the NAL expansion can improve strategic focus and financial flexibility.
Read all positive factors
Elevra Lithium (ELV) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$723.23M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.61M
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.3
Beta (1Y)1.72
Revenue Growth-8.06%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryAU
Employees246
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryOther Precious Metals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.60
Shares Outstanding194,016,020
10 Day Avg. Volume2,943,363
30 Day Avg. Volume2,605,275
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.21
Price to Book (P/B)1.43
Price to Sales (P/S)7.10
P/FCF Ratio-15.01
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$11.94Price Target Upside43.83% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.56
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$360.81M
Elevra Lithium Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Elevra Lithium Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the identification, acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral assets in Australia and Canada. The company explores for lithium, graphite, and gold deposits. Its flagship...
Elevra Lithium Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 27, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 03, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a materially improved commercial, operational and financial position: strong realized price gains (+57%), a return to positive underlying EBITDA, a substantially stronger cash position ($255M) and a fully funded NAL expansion that has moved into execution. These positives were balanced by modest production and shipment declines, temporary mining headwinds, weaker cash conversion during the year, and higher near-term unit costs and capital intensity tied to expansion activities. Management highlighted improving operational metrics (Q4 recoveries, 92% mill utilization) and significant strategic progress (merger synergies, Mangrove agreement, portfolio rationalization), which together outweigh the transitory operational and timing challenges reported.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Revenue of $202 million in FY'26, up 39% versus FY'25, driven by higher realized prices despite lower shipment volumes.
Negative Updates
Moderate Production and Shipments Decline
Production at NAL declined modestly (management cited ~198,000 tonnes; CFO cited ~188,000 dmt, ~3% below prior year). Sales volumes fell to ~181,000 dmt, down 13% due to timing of shipments and a port transition; inventory built to ~41,000 dmt at year-end.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth
Revenue of $202 million in FY'26, up 39% versus FY'25, driven by higher realized prices despite lower shipment volumes.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Elevra guided FY‑27 spodumene concentrate production of 198,000–210,000 tonnes (≈+5.2% year‑on‑year) and concentrate sales of 200,000–230,000 tonnes (modestly weighted to H1), with unit operating costs of $880–$950/tonne sold (up from $853/t in FY‑26 due to higher mining intensity and a strip ratio of ~10% vs 9.1%), and total FY‑27 capital expenditure of $120–$140 million (including ~ $20 million sustaining capex at NAL and growth spend on the NAL expansion and Moblan studies). Management reiterated the NAL Brownfield Expansion total project cost of USD 270 million (Stage 1 ≈ $70m, Stage 2 ≈ $60m, Stage 3 ≈ $140m), expects to expand milling from permitted 4,500 tpd to 6,500 tpd raising average annual concentrate capacity from ~194,000 to ~338,000 tpa and reducing life‑of‑mine C1 cost to $628/tonne, targets Stage 1 completion in calendar 2027 (delivering a ~15–20% uplift), and pointed to FY‑26 operational baselines of 71% recoveries in Q4 and 92% mill utilization supporting the FY‑27 outlook.Elevra Lithium Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 210.93M | 223.37M | 200.87M | 1.70M | 387.00K |
| Gross Profit | -81.04M | 146.98M | 178.29M | -4.47M | 337.00K |
| EBITDA | -39.49M | -340.10M | -78.09M | -19.03M | -20.57M |
| Net Income | 63.56M | -294.29M | -101.40M | -13.63M | 58.89M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.37B | 652.71M | 952.51M | 1.01B | 661.16M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 368.47M | 72.29M | 90.62M | 211.12M | 184.56M |
| Total Debt | 112.71M | 77.55M | 30.62M | 31.21M | 23.47M |
| Total Liabilities | 317.28M | 177.27M | 156.88M | 124.75M | 100.54M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.05B | 420.22M | 665.04M | 756.16M | 504.02M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -99.81M | -64.42M | -193.37M | -259.84M | -45.67M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -64.35M | -14.79M | -64.64M | -66.48M | -13.64M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 17.62M | -49.63M | -114.04M | -129.92M | -237.44M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 355.07M | 46.08M | 60.34M | 221.25M | 408.25M |
Elevra Lithium Technical Analysis
Negative
8.30
Price Trends
6.36
Negative
7.87
Negative
8.71
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.80
Positive
21.18
Positive
11.33
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:ELV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.52, above the 50-day MA of 6.36, and below the 200-day MA of 8.71, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.80 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 21.18 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.33 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:ELV.
Elevra Lithium Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
56 Neutral | AU$679.57M | 0.62 | 78.56% | ― | ― | ― | |
45 Neutral | AU$723.23M | 6.28 | 7.25% | ― | -8.06% | ― | |
44 Neutral | AU$679.73M | -23.67 | -8.08% | 2.98% | ― | 10.09% | |
44 Neutral | AU$279.87M | -10.68 | -10.92% | ― | ― | -69.23% | |
43 Neutral | AU$73.28M | -2.99 | -16.39% | ― | ― | 6.19% | |
42 Neutral | AU$569.61M | -2.81 | -7.06% | ― | -33.21% | -21.79% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:ELV
Elevra Lithium
3.76
0.05
1.35%
AU:CXO
Core Lithium Ltd
0.21
0.10
90.91%
AU:LKE
Lake Resources N.L.
0.03
>-0.01
-9.09%
AU:EUR
European Lithium
0.39
0.16
65.96%
AU:GLN
Galan Lithium Limited
0.22
0.07
41.94%
AU:VUL
Vulcan Energy Resources Ltd.
1.19
-3.76
-75.97%
Elevra Lithium Corporate Events
JPMorgan Entities Exit Substantial Holder Status in Elevra Lithium
Oct 26, 2026
JPMorgan Chase Co. and several of its global securities and prime brokerage affiliates have notified Elevra Lithium Ltd that they have ceased to be a substantial holder in the company as of 22 October 2026. The change follows a series of transact...
Elevra Lithium Delivers Record Quarter and Deepens North American Focus
Oct 26, 2026
Elevra Lithium reported a record quarter at its North American Lithium operation, with a 25% increase in ore mined, high plant utilisation and mill throughput, and second-best spodumene production on record. Despite musculoskeletal safety incident...
Elevra Lithium Sets Date for September Quarter Results and Investor Webcast
Oct 20, 2026
Elevra Lithium Limited announced that its September 2026 Quarterly Activities Report will be released on 27 October 2026, with an investor webcast scheduled the same day to discuss the results and provide stakeholders with further insight. The web...
Elevra Lithium Details Approval Timeline for US$71m Ewoyaa Project Sale
Sep 30, 2026
Elevra Lithium has reiterated that the proposed sale of its interests and offtake rights in Ghana’s Ewoyaa Lithium Project to China’s Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt for about US$71 million remains conditional on securing Ghanaian Government ap...
Morella–Elevra JV Reports High-Grade Rubidium and Lithium Finds at Mac Well
Sep 29, 2026
Morella Corporation has reported encouraging exploration results from the Mac Well lithium and rubidium project in Western Australia, held in joint venture with Elevra Lithium. The project, located in the Pilbara, has delivered early-stage samplin...
Morella Unveils Maiden Rubidium Resource at Mt Edon Project
Sep 16, 2026
Morella Corporation has declared a maiden JORC 2012 Inferred Mineral Resource Estimate at its Mt Edon critical minerals project in Western Australia. The initial resource, focused on the Sophie and Miles June prospects, targets rubidium as the pr...
Elevra Lithium flags fully funded expansion as North American hard-rock output grows
Sep 7, 2026
Elevra Lithium reported fiscal 2026 output of nearly 198,000 dry metric tonnes of product, selling about 181,000 tonnes at a 67% recovery rate, generating US$202 million in revenue and holding US$255 million in cash at 30 June 2026. With a combine...
Elevra Lithium’s Québec Expansion PFS Targets Doubling Output and Lower Costs
Sep 6, 2026
Elevra Lithium has completed a pre-feasibility study for a three-stage brownfield expansion of its North American Lithium project in Québec, which will lift permitted plant throughput to 4,500 tonnes per day by mid-2027, then 6,500 tonnes per...
Elevra Lithium posts stronger FY26 results and fully funds NAL expansion
Aug 27, 2026
Elevra Lithium reported its first full-year results as a merged group, highlighting improved safety performance at the North American Lithium mine, record ore mined and updated resource and reserve estimates at NAL and Moblan that bolster its grow...
Elevra Lithium Swings to Profit as Merger Builds North American Lithium Platform
Aug 27, 2026
Elevra Lithium Limited reported a sharp turnaround for the year ended 30 June 2026, with revenue rising 39% to $201.7 million and a net profit of $43.1 million after a $190.5 million loss in the prior year. Despite the improved performance and a s...
Elevra Secures Long-Term Spodumene Supply Deal with Mangrove Lithium
Aug 20, 2026
Elevra Lithium has signed a binding seven-year supply agreement with Mangrove Lithium to deliver up to 144,000 dry metric tonnes per year of 6% spodumene concentrate from its North American Lithium mine in Québec, with an option for a further...
Elevra Lithium sets date for FY26 results and investor webcast
Aug 17, 2026
Elevra Lithium has scheduled the release of its FY26 financial results and annual report for 28 August 2026, underscoring a regular disclosure cadence to its dual-listed investor base on the ASX and NASDAQ. The company will accompany the results w...
Elevra Lithium Sells Tabba Tabba Pegmatite Rights to Fund North American Growth
Aug 6, 2026
Elevra Lithium has completed the sale of all rights, interests and obligations over exploration tenement E45/2364, known as Tabba Tabba in Western Australia, to Wildcat Resources. The deal delivers A$16 million in cash and Wildcat shares, along wi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.