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Champion Iron
(Sydney:CIA)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
AU$3.50
▼(-2.51% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/31/26
The score is held back primarily by weak and volatile free cash flow and a clear downtrend (price below all key moving averages). These are partly offset by still-healthy operating margins, a workable (though more levered) balance sheet, and a moderately supportive valuation with a ~3.6% yield. The latest earnings call adds a modest positive tilt due to DRPF completion and expected premium realization, but near-term cost, pricing, and inventory headwinds remain material.
Positive Factors
DRPF Plant Delivery
Delivering the DRPF on time and on budget is a durable strategic uplift: it enables production of higher-value DR-grade concentrate, shifts product mix toward premium sales (management expects premiums in Q2–Q4), and materially raises the company's long-term revenue per tonne potential once ramped and contracted.
Negative Factors
Weak Free Cash Flow
Very thin and volatile free cash flow constrains capital allocation: with FCF only ~6.9% of net income and prior years showing negative FCF, the company has limited internal funding for deleveraging, sustaining dividends, or growth. This reduces resilience to price or demand shocks over the medium term.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
DRPF Plant Delivery
Delivering the DRPF on time and on budget is a durable strategic uplift: it enables production of higher-value DR-grade concentrate, shifts product mix toward premium sales (management expects premiums in Q2–Q4), and materially raises the company's long-term revenue per tonne potential once ramped and contracted.
Read all positive factors
Champion Iron (CIA) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$1.94B
Dividend Yield3.82%
Average Volume (3M)2.63M
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.6
Beta (1Y)1.30
Revenue Growth9.88%
EPS Growth22.36%
CountryAU
Employees1,014
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.20
Shares Outstanding560,046,940
10 Day Avg. Volume1,545,876
30 Day Avg. Volume2,629,623
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.86
Price to Book (P/B)1.75
Price to Sales (P/S)1.52
P/FCF Ratio121.89
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$5.33Price Target Upside48.40% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)0.17
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$1.91B
Champion Iron Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Champion Iron Limited is a Canadian enterprise focused on the entire lifecycle of iron ore operations, from the acquisition and exploration of new sites to the development and eventual extraction of deposits within the nation. The company's key as...
How the Company Makes Money
Champion Iron primarily makes money by producing and selling iron ore concentrate to customers (typically steel producers and commodity traders) under sales arrangements that are generally priced with reference to iron ore market benchmarks and ad...
Champion Iron Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q1-2027)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed meaningful operational and strategic progress—most notably the successful delivery of the DRPF flotation plant on time and on budget, strong recovery metrics, signed DR-grade contracts and significant available liquidity—while also acknowledging near-term pressures from elevated freight costs (+37% C3), lower realized prices (~$115/t vs ~$122/t benchmark), elevated inventories and a cash reduction from ~$300M to ~$200M. Management frames the negative items as largely temporary (ramp-up, acquisition timing, shipping disruptions) and expects premiums from DR-grade sales and normalization of costs to improve results in upcoming quarters.Positive Updates
Production and Sales Volumes
Combined production ~3.9–4.0 million tonnes (Bloom Lake + Rana Gruber) and sales ~3.3 million tonnes (3.1 Mt Bloom Lake, 0.2 Mt Rana Gruber) for Q1 FY2027.
Negative Updates
Sales Shortfall vs Production and Elevated Inventories
Sales (3.3 Mt) were materially below production (~3.9–4.0 Mt), leaving elevated stockpiles at port and mine; Bloom Lake produced ~3.5 Mt but sold ~3.1 Mt, Rana produced ~0.4 Mt but sold ~0.2 Mt (lost 10 days from acquisition timing and shutdowns).
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Q1-2027 Updates
Positive
Negative
Production and Sales Volumes
Combined production ~3.9–4.0 million tonnes (Bloom Lake + Rana Gruber) and sales ~3.3 million tonnes (3.1 Mt Bloom Lake, 0.2 Mt Rana Gruber) for Q1 FY2027.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The management guidance emphasized a near-term normalization of volumes, costs and sales as DRPF ramp-up completes: Q1 combined production was ~3.9–4.0 Mt with sales ~3.3 Mt (Bloom Lake 3.5 Mt produced/3.1 Mt sold; Rana Gruber 0.4 Mt produced/0.2 Mt sold), revenues ~$357M and EBITDA ~$33M (adjusted nearer ~$60M), realized price ~$115/t versus a P65 average of ~$122/t (P65–P61 ≈ $17/t), and freight pressure (C3 freight +37% q/q to ~$34/t; consolidated freight ≈ $36/t). Key operational and financial expectations are: DRPF CapEx complete within the $500M envelope, ~0.6 Mt of flotation throughput in Q1 with 69% Fe material and ~79% iron recovery, first DR-grade vessel ~160,000 t to depart in weeks, higher sales and inventory drawdown expected in Q2, sustaining CapEx to remain similar in Q2 then fall in Q3–Q4, DRPF premiums beginning to show in Q2 with larger impact in Q3–Q4, roughly 75% of DRPF tonnes targeted to be allocated within a year (about 50% of Bloom Lake concentrate already committed), cash down from ~$300M to ~$200M but liquidity ≈ $653M, and a priority to deleverage (Rana expected to be FCF-generative at spot in H2).Champion Iron Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.75B | 1.77B | 1.61B | 1.52B | 1.40B | 1.46B |
| Gross Profit | 450.42M | 408.62M | 401.73M | 629.76M | 451.28M | 958.20M |
| EBITDA | 487.27M | 507.81M | 446.20M | 555.41M | 481.68M | 916.31M |
| Net Income | 104.66M | 168.74M | 142.04M | 234.19M | 200.71M | 522.59M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.08B | 3.50B | 3.03B | 2.69B | 2.32B | 1.99B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 198.85M | 296.79M | 117.45M | 400.06M | 327.12M | 352.67M |
| Total Debt | 1.42B | 1.08B | 758.91M | 616.41M | 562.12M | 377.34M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.47B | 1.96B | 1.59B | 1.29B | 1.05B | 827.53M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.61B | 1.53B | 1.44B | 1.40B | 1.26B | 1.16B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 13.74M | 22.07M | -301.58M | 131.31M | -58.68M | -53.95M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 408.67M | 435.93M | 304.02M | 474.58M | 235.98M | 470.44M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -849.80M | -424.43M | -615.75M | -354.72M | -249.86M | -635.47M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 458.67M | 164.38M | 23.41M | -48.36M | 6.90M | -118.14M |
Champion Iron Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
56 Neutral | AU$8.40M | -0.07 | -111.00% | ― | ― | -2044.26% | |
52 Neutral | AU$1.94B | 16.59 | 6.80% | 3.82% | 9.88% | 22.36% | |
51 Neutral | AU$419.05M | -13.62 | -7.06% | 3.51% | -42.65% | 62.24% | |
46 Neutral | AU$200.65M | -1.09 | -225.71% | 269.23% | -16.03% | -1005.11% | |
42 Neutral | AU$19.72M | -2.59 | -77.53% | ― | ― | -200.55% | |
41 Neutral | AU$32.03M | -11.67 | -123.74% | ― | ― | 82.81% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:CIA
Champion Iron
3.42
-0.94
-21.49%
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Kogi Iron Ltd.
0.01
0.00
0.00%
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Tombador Iron Ltd.
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0.14
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-38.26%
Champion Iron Corporate Events
Champion Iron outlines quarterly performance, projects and acquisition activity
Jul 29, 2026
Champion Iron Limited released its management’s discussion and analysis for the three months ended June 30, 2026, outlining a broad review of its business and operations. The document covers its core mining activities, recent acquisition wor...
Champion Iron Outlines Q1 FY2027 Strategy for Low-Carbon Steel Supply
Jul 29, 2026
Champion Iron has released a webcast presentation for the first quarter of its 2027 financial year, emphasizing its strategy to support decarbonized steelmaking through high-purity iron ore products. The presentation outlines the company’s f...
Champion Iron Sets August 2026 AGM and Details Global Proxy Process
Jul 27, 2026
Champion Iron Limited has issued a management information circular ahead of its annual general meeting of shareholders scheduled for August 27, 2026 in Sydney, corresponding to August 26, 2026 in Montréal. The company is inviting registered a...
Champion Iron AGM to Test Shareholder Sentiment on Pay and Board Stability
Jul 27, 2026
Champion Iron Limited is an iron ore producer focused on developing and operating mining assets in Canada. The company serves global steelmakers, with its operations and reporting structured across both Australian and Canadian regulatory framework...
Champion Iron Sets Q1 FY2027 Results Date and Annual Meeting Timeline
Jul 7, 2026
Champion Iron will release its first‑quarter FY2027 financial results for the period ended June 30, 2026, with senior management hosting a conference call and webcast on July 30, 2026, and making the materials available on its website and se...
Champion Iron Reports Lapse of Incentive Share Units on ASX
Jul 7, 2026
Champion Iron Limited, the ASX‑listed iron ore producer, has disclosed changes to its equity‑based incentive instruments as part of routine capital management. The company’s capital structure includes performance and restricted s...
Champion Iron Confirms AUD Equivalent for Cross‑Border Dividend
Jul 2, 2026
Champion Iron Limited has updated its earlier dividend notification for its ordinary fully paid shares, confirming the Australian dollar equivalent of a previously declared dividend that was originally denominated in Canadian dollars. The dividend...
Champion Iron debuts DR-grade ore and secures first commercial deal from Bloom Lake
Jun 28, 2026
Champion Iron has produced direct reduction quality iron ore from its new DR pellet feed project at the Bloom Lake mine and plans an inaugural commercial sale of at least 160,000 wet metric tonnes in the third quarter of 2026. Completed within a r...
Champion Iron Director Restructures Personal Shareholdings with No Net Interest Change
Jun 24, 2026
Champion Iron has disclosed a change in the way director Michael O’Keeffe holds his interest in company securities, following an off‑market transfer of 2.5 million shares. The transaction moved shares from Prospect AG Trading Pty Ltd, ...
Champion Iron files comprehensive 2026 annual information form
May 28, 2026
Champion Iron Limited has filed its annual information form for the year ended March 31, 2026, outlining its corporate structure, business description and the development of its operations. The document details key aspects such as risk factors, th...
Champion Iron Releases Comprehensive 2026 MD&A Detailing Operations and Financial Position
May 28, 2026
Champion Iron Limited has released its Management’s Discussion and Analysis for the year ended March 31, 2026, outlining financial, operational and strategic developments as of May 28, 2026. The document covers key areas such as financial an...
Champion Iron reinforces governance framework and diversity focus
May 28, 2026
Champion Iron Limited has detailed its corporate governance framework, confirming that its policies for the year to 31 March 2026 comply with the Corporations Act and the ASX Corporate Governance Council’s latest recommendations. The board, ...
Champion Iron underscores green steel strategy in FY 2026 results presentation
May 28, 2026
Champion Iron released a webcast presentation covering its fourth quarter and 2026 financial year results, emphasizing its role as a supplier of high-grade iron ore for low-carbon steelmaking. The company highlights projects such as upgrading Bloo...
Champion Iron boosts high-grade output, advances DR project and reshapes dividend policy
May 28, 2026
Champion Iron reported fourth-quarter production of 3.4 million wet metric tonnes and sales of 3.5 million dry metric tonnes, generating $415 million in revenue and $114 million in EBITDA, despite rail disruptions and harsh winter conditions. Net ...
Champion Iron lifts profit, boosts assets and reshapes Kami project ownership
May 28, 2026
Champion Iron reported a 10% rise in revenue to C$1.77 billion and a 19% increase in net profit to C$168.7 million for the year ended March 31, 2026, underscoring solid operational performance in a challenging commodities environment. The miner al...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.