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Cogstate Ltd
(Sydney:CGS)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
AU$4.50
▲(47.06% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/13/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial health (notably a low-risk balance sheet and solid profitability) and a positive earnings outlook supported by a materially larger contracted revenue base and guidance to sustain ~30% EBITDA margins. This is partially offset by elevated valuation (high P/E) and near-term technical overbought signals, alongside ongoing risks around revenue/cash-flow lumpiness and investment-driven margin pressure.
Positive Factors
Contracted Revenue Visibility
The larger contracted revenue base improves forward visibility and supports planning over the next several quarters. It also indicates stronger customer commitments, creating a durable foundation for growth if Cogstate converts the backlog into reported revenue as expected.
Negative Factors
Margin Volatility
The year-on-year gross-margin decline shows that profitability is not yet fully stable as Cogstate invests ahead of growth. Planned capability and AI spending may continue to delay margin expansion, making future earnings more sensitive to delivery efficiency and revenue mix.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Contracted Revenue Visibility
The larger contracted revenue base improves forward visibility and supports planning over the next several quarters. It also indicates stronger customer commitments, creating a durable foundation for growth if Cogstate converts the backlog into reported revenue as expected.
Read all positive factors
Cogstate Ltd (CGS) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$588.67M
Dividend Yield1.75%
Average Volume (3M)480.84K
Price to Earnings (P/E)35.2
Beta (1Y)0.07
Revenue Growth6.95%
EPS Growth10.77%
CountryAU
Employees160
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Healthcare Information Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.07
Shares Outstanding172,126,420
10 Day Avg. Volume540,243
30 Day Avg. Volume480,837
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.50
Price to Book (P/B)8.01
Price to Sales (P/S)7.79
P/FCF Ratio50.90
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$4.09Price Target Upside33.66% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.09
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$75.80M
Cogstate Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Melbourne, Australia-based Cogstate Limited, established in 1999, is a neuroscience technology company specializing in computerized cognitive assessments and digital solutions for clinical outcome evaluations. Its comprehensive suite of cognitive ...
How the Company Makes Money
Cogstate makes money primarily by providing its cognitive assessment technologies and related services to organizations that need standardized, repeatable measurement of cognition and symptoms. The company’s key revenue stream is typically busines...
Cogstate Ltd Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 17, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 24, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated strong, diversified top-line growth, record sales and a materially expanded contracted revenue base, backed by improving second-half margins and completed AI products—positioning the business for continued growth. Management acknowledged near-term margin pressure from purposeful capability investments, conversion timing risk for contracted revenue, a small FX tailwind that may not recur, and dependence on nascent channel partnerships. On balance, the positive operational momentum, robust pipeline and clear technology roadmap outweigh the manageable short-term risks.Positive Updates
Record Financial Performance and Profitability
FY'26 revenue just shy of $61.0M (up 15% YoY); profit before tax up 16%; net profit after tax up 17%. EBITDA margin 30% and EBIT margin 25% for the year. Cash balance ~ $35M and no debt. Declared dividend $0.04 per share (up from $0.02 prior year; payout ratio 40%).
Negative Updates
Gross Margin Compression Year-on-Year
Reported gross margin fell from 61% to 58% YoY (a 3 percentage point decline). Management attributes this to intentional investment in capabilities ahead of growth, though margin recovery was seen in H2.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Financial Performance and Profitability
FY'26 revenue just shy of $61.0M (up 15% YoY); profit before tax up 16%; net profit after tax up 17%. EBITDA margin 30% and EBIT margin 25% for the year. Cash balance ~ $35M and no debt. Declared dividend $0.04 per share (up from $0.02 prior year; payout ratio 40%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance for FY'27 is that Cogstate starts the year with $118.5m of contracted future revenue (up 54% year‑on‑year), of which $48.3m is expected to be recognized in FY'27 (including $46.1m clinical trials revenue and $2.2m healthcare), with year‑2 and year‑3 locked‑in revenue rising to $29.1m and $18.4m respectively; management expects FY'27 to show a second‑half bias (June half stronger than Dec half) and to maintain the FY'26 EBITDA margin (~30%) despite planned technology and AI investment (a predominantly capital, two‑year build of an AI operations platform), while continuing disciplined capital allocation (cash ~$35m, no debt, ongoing opportunistic share buyback, and a declared dividend of $0.04/share up from $0.02 with a 40% payout ratio within a 20–50% target); this outlook is underpinned by FY'26 metrics including ~$61m revenue (+15% YoY), $89m of sales (up 116%), 90 new trials (vs 35), 171 active trials (vs 110), FY'26 gross margin 58% (H1 53% → H2 62%), EBIT ~25% (H1 → H2 operating leverage supported EBITDA 30%), profit before tax +16% and NPAT +17%, with ~40% of new sales via channel partners.Cogstate Ltd Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
92
Very Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 59.87M | 33.29M | 43.43M | 39.94M | 44.98M |
| Gross Profit | 20.24M | 20.11M | 24.71M | 8.16M | 14.87M |
| EBITDA | 15.51M | 12.06M | 7.61M | 4.90M | 12.70M |
| Net Income | 12.16M | 6.65M | 3.63M | 3.52M | 7.13M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 78.03M | 64.77M | 57.84M | 53.94M | 58.44M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 34.77M | 35.56M | 30.08M | 28.61M | 30.59M |
| Total Debt | 359.02K | 638.90K | 672.72K | 378.01K | 1.41M |
| Total Liabilities | 19.78M | 16.88M | 16.89M | 16.34M | 25.52M |
| Stockholders Equity | 58.25M | 47.90M | 27.29M | 37.60M | 32.92M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 9.17M | 8.40M | 4.75M | -1.01M | 5.87M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 9.69M | 11.48M | 5.78M | 1.17M | 9.25M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.45M | -2.24M | -1.12M | -1.68M | -3.53M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.04M | -3.79M | -3.22M | -883.51K | 760.36K |
Cogstate Ltd Technical Analysis
Neutral
3.06
Price Trends
3.29
Positive
2.98
Positive
2.63
Positive
Market Momentum
0.07
Positive
49.30
Neutral
37.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:CGS, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 3.06 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.50, below the 50-day MA of 3.29, and above the 200-day MA of 2.63, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:CGS.
Cogstate Ltd Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | AU$588.67M | 35.24 | 21.61% | 1.75% | 6.95% | 10.77% | |
65 Neutral | AU$148.48M | 64.71 | 2.53% | ― | 26.61% | 41.67% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
45 Neutral | AU$22.74M | -1.22 | -58.13% | ― | 2.08% | -195.31% | |
42 Neutral | AU$10.24M | -1.57 | -150.85% | ― | 23078.58% | -139.00% | |
41 Neutral | AU$20.27M | -2.05 | -18.10% | ― | ― | ― | |
40 Underperform | AU$14.65M | -1.61 | -1688.04% | ― | 11.45% | 0.69% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
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Cogstate Ltd Corporate Events
Cogstate boosts long-term revenue with major wins in mood disorder trials
Oct 11, 2026
Cogstate reported net sales contracts of $25.1 million for the September 2026 quarter, underscoring continued traction for its strategy of combining CNS scientific leadership with partnerships across clinical technology providers. The company high...
Cogstate Issues Over 1 Million Unquoted Performance Rights Under Employee Scheme
Oct 6, 2026
Cogstate Ltd has issued 1,063,176 performance rights under its employee incentive scheme, according to a new notification of unquoted equity securities. The performance rights, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX, were issued on 1 Octob...
Cogstate Seeks ASX Quotation for Additional Ordinary Shares
Oct 6, 2026
Cogstate Ltd has applied to the ASX for quotation of 137,399 new ordinary fully paid shares, following the issue of securities on 24 September 2026. The additional shares, arising from the exercise of options or conversion of other securities, wil...
Cogstate Sets Hybrid 2026 AGM to Decide Governance and Executive Pay
Sep 13, 2026
Cogstate Ltd, a neuroscience technology firm specializing in computerized cognitive testing and electronic clinical outcome assessment solutions for biopharma, academia and healthcare providers, has built a global business over more than two decad...
Cogstate Adjusts Incentive Pool as Performance Rights Lapse
Sep 8, 2026
Cogstate Ltd has notified the market of the cessation of 56 performance rights under its equity incentive arrangements, following the lapse of conditional rights that could not be satisfied. The rights, which ceased on August 14, 2026, represent a...
Cogstate Lists Additional Shares on ASX Following Option Conversions
Sep 1, 2026
Cogstate Ltd has applied for quotation on the ASX of additional ordinary fully paid shares under the code CGS, reflecting the issue of a total of 1,871,668 new securities. The new shares, issued across several dates in July and August 2026 as a re...
Cogstate Unveils FY26 Results and Outlook in Investor Briefing
Aug 17, 2026
Cogstate Ltd has released an investor briefing outlining its financial results for the year ended 30 June 2026 and providing commentary on its business and financial outlook. The company will host a live webcast and QA with senior executives, with...
Cogstate posts record FY26 results and deepens AI-enabled CNS trial platform
Aug 17, 2026
Cogstate Ltd is a science-led clinical trial endpoint specialist focused on central nervous system disorders, delivering technology-enabled assessment, central rating and data quality services to pharmaceutical and biotech sponsors. Its diversifie...
Cogstate lifts profit and doubles dividend as clinical trials revenue surges
Aug 17, 2026
Cogstate Ltd, a provider of digital cognitive assessment solutions for global clinical trials and healthcare, continues to generate most of its revenue from the clinical trials segment, with healthcare contributing a smaller but high-margin share....
Cogstate Sets Board Nomination Deadline Ahead of 2026 AGM
Aug 10, 2026
Cogstate has scheduled its 2026 Annual General Meeting for 15 October, setting a formal timetable for governance activities and board elections. Under relevant listing rules and the company’s constitution, nominations for directors must be l...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.