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Australian Vintage Ltd (AVG) AI Stock Analysis

AU:AVG

Australian Vintage Ltd

(ASX:AVG)

Select Model
Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:AUD 0.09â–²(7.50% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:08/28/26

The overall score of 46 is driven primarily by very weak and deteriorating financial health—repeated losses, higher leverage, negative returns, and fragile cash generation—partially offset by modestly positive short-term price momentum and a mixed valuation that offers limited appeal until the underlying earnings profile improves.

Positive Factors
Reported Revenue GrowthThe reported revenue-growth measure indicates that Australian Vintage has retained the ability to expand its sales base. Continued top-line development would support operating scale, broaden distribution opportunities, and provide a foundation for restoring profitability if margins recover.
Negative Factors
Sharp Profitability DeteriorationProfitability has weakened materially, with gross margin falling to about 12% and large operating and net losses reported in 2026. Persistent losses reduce retained capital, weaken resilience, and make future investment or recovery more dependent on improved trading conditions.

Australian Vintage Ltd (AVG) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

-60%-40%-20%0%20%AU:AVG-36.00%EWA+14.93%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
AUD 18.68M
Dividend Yield
―
Average Volume (3M)
125.83K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
-0.4
Beta (1Y)
-0.20
Revenue Growth
0.14%
EPS Growth
-594.48%
Country
Australia
Employees
425
Sector
Consumer Defensive
Sector Strength
62
Industry
Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries

Australian Vintage Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Australian Vintage Ltd, through its various subsidiaries, oversees the entire process of wine production, from manufacturing and packaging to marketing and global distribution. Its significant international presence spans Australia, the United Kingdo...

How the Company Makes Money

AVG primarily makes money by selling wine and related products through a mix of branded consumer channels and commercial supply arrangements. Its main revenue stream is the sale of branded packaged wine (e.g., bottled and other retail-ready formats)...

Australian Vintage Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial performance is very weak: profitability has swung from solid profits to large losses, gross margins have thinned, leverage has risen with debt now exceeding equity, returns on equity are deeply negative, and operating and free cash flows are volatile and often negative, indicating a high-risk turnaround rather than a stable business.

Income Statement

24Negative

Balance Sheet

30Negative

Cash Flow

22Negative
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMJun 2026Jun 2025Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue257.56M257.56M257.19M260.59M258.56M260.10M
Gross Profit31.90M31.90M69.36M27.69M75.11M85.35M
EBITDA-28.02M-28.02M10.32M-62.28M20.32M42.28M
Net Income-66.36M-66.36M-9.56M-93.03M4.01M17.33M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets387.20M387.20M431.35M415.43M498.04M515.60M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments6.74M6.74M8.88M6.02M6.90M2.55M
Total Debt152.10M152.10M142.05M137.27M128.89M125.37M
Total Liabilities251.18M251.18M240.34M201.83M206.92M215.75M
Stockholders Equity136.02M136.02M191.01M213.60M291.12M299.85M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-4.64M-4.64M-14.65M-18.84M-23.48M4.00M
Operating Cash Flow4.32M4.32M-7.66M-10.96M-12.72M15.35M
Investing Cash Flow-8.94M-8.94M-811.00K-2.74M57.46M-9.70M
Financing Cash Flow2.48M2.48M11.33M12.82M-40.39M-6.75M

Australian Vintage Ltd Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price0.08

Price Trends

50DMA0.08Negative
100DMA0.07Positive
200DMA0.08Positive

Market Momentum

MACD-0.00Positive
RSI40.72Neutral
STOCH8.31Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AVG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.08 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.09, below the 50-day MA of 0.08, and above the 200-day MA of 0.08, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.00 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.31 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:AVG.

Australian Vintage Ltd Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

AU:AVG against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
Sector *62Neutral$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
AU:TWEAU:TWE52NeutralAUD 4.99B-4.68-29.99%―-12.18%-347.47%
AU:LRKAU:LRK47NeutralAUD 73.65M-1.85-41.67%―14.75%-231.49%
AU:AVGAU:AVG46NeutralAUD 26.36M-0.42-42.35%―0.14%-594.48%
AU:CBOAU:CBO44NeutralAUD 1.33B-303.37-0.82%1.68%11.29%-107.51%
AU:EDVAU:EDV42NeutralAUD 6.09B111.171.37%3.56%1.28%-87.89%
AU:MBHAU:MBH39UnderperformAUD 22.85M-2.51-27.95%―-0.25%60.85%

* Consumer Defensive Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-40%-20%0%20%AU:AVGAU:TWEAU:CBOAU:LRKAU:EDVAU:MBHDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
AU:AVG and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
AU:AVGAustralian Vintage Ltd0.08-0.05-38.46%
AU:TWETreasury Wine Estates Limited6.250.427.20%
AU:CBOCobram Estate Olives Ltd.2.71-0.40-12.92%
AU:LRKLark Distilling Co. Ltd.0.68-0.04-5.56%
AU:EDVEndeavour Group Ltd3.37-0.11-3.08%
AU:MBHMaggie Beer Holdings Ltd.0.05-0.04-41.11%

Australian Vintage Ltd Corporate Events

Australian Vintage Issues 13.5 Million Unquoted Executive Options

Oct 13, 2026

Australian Vintage Ltd has notified the market of the issue of a new class of unquoted equity securities, designated FY27+ Executive Options, under its employee incentive scheme. The options, totaling 13,499,996 securities, were issued on October 13,...

Australian Vintage Sells Adelaide Hills Cellar Door as It Shifts to Asset-Light Model

Oct 1, 2026

Australian Vintage Ltd, a leading Australian wine producer with globally recognised brands and a strong focus on innovation and sustainability, continues to expand its range of wine styles, low- and no-alcohol products and ready-to-drink formats to m...

Australian Vintage lifts CEO pay after FY26 turnaround

Aug 26, 2026

Australian Vintage Ltd has approved a variation to Chief Executive Officer Tom Dusseldorp’s employment agreement, increasing his remuneration from the start of the FY27 financial year in recognition of a successful FY26 turnaround. The board ci...

Australian Vintage Issues FY26 Results Presentation with Extensive Risk Disclaimers

Aug 26, 2026

Australian Vintage Limited has released a FY26 full-year results presentation that provides a high-level overview of the company’s activities as of August 2026, while stressing that the material is general background information and may change...

Australian Vintage turns cash flow positive as innovation-led brands drive FY26 reset

Aug 26, 2026

Australian Vintage reported flat revenue of $258 million for FY26 but significantly improved cash generation, delivering positive operating and underlying free cash flow for the first time since FY22 despite a reported NPAT loss of $64 million driven...

Australian Vintage Posts Heavy Losses Despite Flat Revenue

Aug 26, 2026

Australian Vintage Ltd reported flat total operating revenue of $257.6 million for the year to 30 June 2026 compared with the prior year, highlighting stable top-line performance in a challenging environment. However, the company’s net tangible...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 28, 2026