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Aurelia Metals
(Sydney:AMI)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
AU$0.58
▲(26.30% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/28/26
The score is primarily driven by strong financial performance (improved profitability, very low leverage, and solid operating cash flow) and a constructive earnings outlook with higher throughput and lower unit-cost guidance. Technicals support the uptrend but are tempered by overbought signals, while valuation appears mid-range with no standalone dividend yield data provided.
Positive Factors
Throughput and unit-cost improvement
Higher planned throughput and lower unit costs could materially improve operating leverage as plant upgrades increase processing capacity. If commissioning proceeds as planned, the combination should support stronger production economics and cash generation over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Earnings remain cyclical
The swing from earlier losses to strong current profitability shows that earnings remain sensitive to operating conditions and the commodity cycle. This limits confidence that FY26 margins can be sustained if metal prices, grades, recoveries or production performance weaken.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Throughput and unit-cost improvement
Higher planned throughput and lower unit costs could materially improve operating leverage as plant upgrades increase processing capacity. If commissioning proceeds as planned, the combination should support stronger production economics and cash generation over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Aurelia Metals (AMI) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$731.21M
Dividend Yield2.33%
Average Volume (3M)7.60M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.6
Beta (1Y)1.96
Revenue Growth39.82%
EPS Growth68.86%
CountryAU
Employees57
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.05
Shares Outstanding1,720,484,100
10 Day Avg. Volume5,251,137
30 Day Avg. Volume7,599,277
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)1.02
Price to Sales (P/S)0.97
P/FCF Ratio13.36
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$0.53Price Target Upside15.22% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.07
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$586.12M
Aurelia Metals Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Aurelia Metals Limited is an Australian enterprise dedicated to the exploration and development of mineral resources across the nation. The company primarily seeks out deposits rich in gold, silver, lead, zinc, and copper. It holds full ownership ...
How the Company Makes Money
Aurelia Metals makes money primarily by mining ore and selling the resulting metal products to external customers. Its core revenue stream is the sale of: (1) base-metal concentrates (typically copper, zinc and/or lead concentrates that may also c...
Aurelia Metals Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 26, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 24, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a strongly positive operational and financial performance: material revenue (+40%), EBITDA (+55%), NPAT (+69%), and cash generation with improved liquidity and a completed refinance. Production and resource/reserve growth, progress on Great Cobar and plant upgrades, and a modest return to shareholders (first dividend since 2020) underpin a constructive outlook. Key negatives are cost pressures, sizeable sustaining and growth capital requirements, reliance on successful commissioning (timing risk), and some remaining project/approval uncertainty (eg, New Occidental) and modeling work on Federation gold grades. On balance, the highlights substantially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Revenue up 40% to $480 million, driven largely by higher gold production (gold ~55% of revenue).
Negative Updates
Cost Pressures and High Absolute Spend
Total cash costs rose with higher volumes and capital activity; cost performance was at the top end of guidance and the business faced diesel-driven cost pressures despite no supply issues.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth
Revenue up 40% to $480 million, driven largely by higher gold production (gold ~55% of revenue).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided FY27 processing of 1.05–1.15Mt (vs ~806kt processed in FY26), with gold production of 50–60koz (FY26: 50,400oz), copper 2,500–3,500t, zinc 26,000–34,000t and lead 17,000–25,000t, noting production will be H2‑weighted as Peak plant expansions (tailings thickener commissioned; tertiary ball mill nearing commissioning) increase throughput; Cobar unit costs were $369/t in FY26 and are expected to fall ~11–19% to $300–$330/t (midpoint tonnes), sustaining capital is guided at $65–$75m, growth and exploration $64–$88m (majority for Great Cobar), Dargues rehab $10–$12.5m, and New Occidental remains subject to board approval. FY26 financials underpinning the guidance include revenue $480m (+40%), EBITDA $189m (+55%, ~40% margin), NPAT $82.7m (+69%), EPS $0.0488 (+69%), operating cash flow from Cobar after sustaining cap $140.5m, cash $143m (from $110.1m) and liquidity ~$184m post‑refinance; the Board declared a $0.01/share fully franked final dividend (~$17m). Updated MROR metrics cited resources up to 30.6Mt (from 29Mt), reserves +49% to 8.2Mt, Peak underground ~19.6Mt of 21.4Mt at ~1.8% Cu and 0.8g/t Au, and New Occidental tails 2.6Mt @0.65g/t.Aurelia Metals Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
91
Very Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 480.24M | 343.47M | 309.89M | 369.20M | 438.81M |
| Gross Profit | 139.64M | 85.71M | 27.66M | -34.07M | 19.10M |
| EBITDA | 193.63M | 108.09M | 81.41M | 33.84M | 31.01M |
| Net Income | 82.68M | 48.85M | -5.73M | -52.22M | -81.69M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 646.53M | 547.53M | 472.52M | 444.40M | 562.25M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 143.90M | 110.09M | 116.50M | 38.95M | 76.69M |
| Total Debt | 7.28M | 8.58M | 7.93M | 12.69M | 45.49M |
| Total Liabilities | 189.26M | 184.83M | 155.67M | 134.57M | 225.32M |
| Stockholders Equity | 457.27M | 362.70M | 316.85M | 309.82M | 336.93M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 34.85M | 13.68M | 17.72M | -590.00K | 48.84M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 142.79M | 129.67M | 100.63M | 45.86M | 154.09M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -102.87M | -136.35M | -32.53M | -77.37M | -131.46M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -6.82M | -637.00K | 9.15M | -6.77M | -20.17M |
Aurelia Metals Technical Analysis
Positive
0.46
Price Trends
0.44
Negative
0.37
Positive
0.33
Positive
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Positive
46.94
Neutral
40.54
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AMI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.46 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.45, above the 50-day MA of 0.44, and above the 200-day MA of 0.33, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:AMI.
Aurelia Metals Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | AU$731.21M | 8.63 | 19.73% | 2.33% | 39.82% | 68.86% | |
77 Outperform | AU$697.84M | 2.87 | 33.93% | ― | 21.87% | 233.62% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
46 Neutral | AU$156.69M | 3.18 | 7.74% | 3.70% | -13.27% | ― | |
42 Neutral | AU$277.38M | -4.52 | -38.44% | ― | ― | -85.29% |
* General Sector Average
AU:AMI
Aurelia Metals
0.43
0.19
76.23%
AU:SGQ
St. George Mining Ltd.
0.06
-0.06
-52.50%
AU:AIS
Aeris Resources Limited
0.47
-0.05
-10.58%
AU:OMH
OM Holdings Ltd.
0.20
-0.04
-18.37%
Aurelia Metals Corporate Events
Aurelia Metals Flags High-Risk Profile in ASX Small and Mid-Cap Investor Briefing
Sep 22, 2026
Aurelia Metals Limited is an Australian gold and base metals producer and explorer listed in the small and mid-cap segment of the ASX. The company reports its results under IFRS while also using non-IFRS measures such as EBITDA to provide addition...
Aurelia Metals Director Increases Indirect Shareholding via On-Market Trade
Sep 16, 2026
Aurelia Metals has disclosed a change in director Franklyn Brazil’s indirect interest in the company, reflecting an on-market purchase of 4,000,000 ordinary shares through Brazil Farming Pty Ltd at an average price of $0.429 per share. Follo...
Aurelia Metals Sets 2026 AGM Date and Director Nomination Deadline
Sep 6, 2026
Aurelia Metals has scheduled its 2026 Annual General Meeting for 17 November 2026, with full details and agenda to be set out in a forthcoming Notice of Meeting. The company has also confirmed that nominations for election to its board must be lod...
Aurelia Metals Director Trims Stake in On‑Market Share Sale
Sep 3, 2026
Aurelia Metals has disclosed a change in the shareholding of director Bradley John Newcombe, who sold 250,000 ordinary shares in an on‑market trade on 31 August 2026 at an average price of $0.45 per share. Following the transaction, Newcombe...
Aurelia Metals Confirms Lapse of Over 2.2 Million Performance Rights
Aug 26, 2026
Aurelia Metals Limited has notified the market of the cessation of 2,211,110 performance rights, coded AMIAQ on the ASX. The rights lapsed because the conditions attached to these conditional securities were not met or became incapable of being sa...
Aurelia Metals Declares Dividend for FY2026
Aug 26, 2026
Aurelia Metals Limited is an Australian listed company operating in the metals and mining sector, with its ordinary fully paid shares trading on the ASX under the code AMI. The company’s activities are focused on the exploration, development...
Aurelia Metals Releases FY26 Results with Strong Risk Disclaimers
Aug 26, 2026
Aurelia Metals has released its FY26 financial results presentation, prepared under International Financial Reporting Standards and supplemented with non‑IFRS measures such as EBITDA. The document emphasises that investors must rely on their...
Aurelia Metals lifts profit, declares dividend on stronger output
Aug 26, 2026
Aurelia Metals reported a sharp improvement in FY26 financial performance, with revenue up 40% to $480.2 million and statutory EBITDA up 55% to $189.2 million, driven by higher metal production and strong commodity prices. Net profit after tax ros...
Aurelia Metals Boosts Reserves and Production Targets in Cobar Basin
Aug 26, 2026
Aurelia Metals has reported strong growth in its 2026 mineral resource and ore reserve estimates, with group resources rising to 30.6Mt and ore reserves up 49% to 8.2Mt after depletion. The update underpins longer‑term production plans, incl...
Aurelia Metals posts strong FY26 profit and lifts dividend
Aug 26, 2026
Aurelia Metals Limited is an Australian resources company listed on the ASX, operating in the metals and mining sector. The company generates revenue from ordinary mining and processing activities and reports on key financial metrics such as EBITD...
Aurelia Metals Sets Date for FY26 Results and Investor Call
Aug 18, 2026
Aurelia Metals Limited is an Australian mining and exploration company with a strategic landholding in the Cobar Basin in western New South Wales. It operates three underground base metal mines at its Peak and Federation operations and is progress...
Aurelia Metals Wins Approval to Boost Peak Plant Throughput
Aug 13, 2026
Aurelia Metals has secured development consent from Cobar Shire Council to lift the permitted throughput of its Peak processing plant from about 800,000 tonnes per annum to 1.2 million tonnes per annum. This approval aligns processing capacity wit...
Aurelia Metals Reports Lapse of More Than 8 Million Performance Rights
Aug 10, 2026
Aurelia Metals Limited has reported the lapse of 8,105,726 performance rights, identified under the ASX security code AMIAQ, after the conditions attached to those rights were not met or became incapable of being satisfied.The cessation of these c...
Aurelia Metals Discloses Director Bryan Quinn’s Final Equity Interests After Board Exit
Jul 27, 2026
Aurelia Metals Limited, an ASX-listed Australian mining and metals company, has a capital structure that includes ordinary shares and performance rights held directly by its directors. Additional stakes in the company are held through related enti...
Aurelia Metals Sets Investor Call for June-Quarter Results
Jul 7, 2026
Aurelia Metals will release its quarterly results for the period ended 30 June 2026 to the ASX before market open on 20 July 2026. Senior executives, including the managing director, CFO, chief development and technical officer, and the general ma...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.