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Amplitude Energy
(Sydney:AEL)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
AU$2.00
▲(22.70% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/09/26
The score is driven mainly by improving financial performance—especially the strong FY26 operating/free cash flow recovery and lower leverage—supported by moderately constructive technical momentum. These positives are tempered by still-negative reported earnings (limiting valuation support) and earnings-call risks including a material exploration write-off, policy uncertainty, and elevated FY27 CapEx and planned downtime.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation and Deleveraging
Strong FY26 cash generation and a major reduction in net debt improve financial resilience in a cyclical commodity business. This provides greater capacity to fund development, manage operational volatility, and absorb periods of weaker prices or production without relying as heavily on external financing.
Negative Factors
Persistent Net Losses
Recurring net losses show that strong EBITDA and cash conversion have not yet translated into sustained reported profitability. Depreciation, impairment, or other costs continue to weigh on earnings, limiting confidence that the asset base consistently generates shareholder returns over time.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash Generation and Deleveraging
Strong FY26 cash generation and a major reduction in net debt improve financial resilience in a cyclical commodity business. This provides greater capacity to fund development, manage operational volatility, and absorb periods of weaker prices or production without relying as heavily on external financing.
Read all positive factors
Amplitude Energy (AEL) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$574.27M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)771.38K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.28
Revenue Growth6.63%
EPS Growth51.90%
CountryAU
Employees140
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.08
Shares Outstanding299,880,830
10 Day Avg. Volume914,619
30 Day Avg. Volume771,383
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.31
Price to Book (P/B)0.73
Price to Sales (P/S)1.27
P/FCF Ratio2.23
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$2.46Price Target Upside51.01% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.19
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$318.87M
Amplitude Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Amplitude Energy Limited engages in exploration, development, and production of natural gas and low-cost oil in Australia. It operates through Southeast Australia and Cooper Basin segments. The company is involved in the exploration, evaluation, o...
How the Company Makes Money
Amplitude Energy makes money primarily by producing and selling hydrocarbons (crude oil, condensate, and/or natural gas) from its upstream assets. Revenue is generated when produced volumes are sold under offtake arrangements to customers (often v...
Amplitude Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 17, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 01, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominately positive operational and financial update: record production, revenue, margins and strong cash generation alongside clear progress and funding for the transformational ECSP. Key negatives were an exploration well failure with a ~ $100m write‑off, some regional production weakness (Cooper Basin) and regulatory uncertainty around the domestic gas reservation policy. On balance the business appears robust with growth catalysts ahead and manageable near‑term costs and risks.Positive Updates
Record Production and Operational Performance
Group production reached a record 27.6 PJ (≈75.5 TJ/day), up ~3% year‑on‑year; Orbost averaged 66.5 TJ/day, with recent daily records around 74 TJ/day and the plant operating above its previous nameplate of 68 TJ/day.
Negative Updates
Exploration Setback and Material Write‑Down
The first exploration well drilled in FY'26 failed to deliver commercial outcomes. Statutory results were impacted by a circa $100 million pre‑write‑off of Isabella and Elanora exploration costs, which weighed on reported profit after tax.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Production and Operational Performance
Group production reached a record 27.6 PJ (≈75.5 TJ/day), up ~3% year‑on‑year; Orbost averaged 66.5 TJ/day, with recent daily records around 74 TJ/day and the plant operating above its previous nameplate of 68 TJ/day.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For FY‑27 Amplitude guided group production of 26.6–28.5 PJ (≈73–78 TJ/day) — reflecting Orbost’s ability to produce above 70 TJ/day but allowing for a 10‑day planned Orbost statutory shutdown, normal downtime and natural decline — production expenses of $58–64m, other cash expenses and cost of sales of $27–31m (now including selling/transport to Sydney), and CapEx of $250–310m (covering Juliet/Annie drilling and long‑lead orders; excludes uncommitted Nestor drilling and the Artisan upfront consideration); they also flagged ~$5m for Patricia Baleen well inspections and $6–7m for ERP replacement, aim to keep operated plant reliability loss below 1%, to maximize Orbost throughput when market conditions support >70 TJ/day, to complete the ECSP drilling phase by year‑end and remain on track for first gas in 2028.Amplitude Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 285.83M | 268.06M | 219.05M | 196.94M | 203.85M |
| Gross Profit | -13.99M | 77.83M | 89.77M | 11.28M | 38.54M |
| EBITDA | 93.26M | 143.38M | 27.12M | 41.11M | 45.07M |
| Net Income | -27.21M | -41.33M | -114.11M | -68.46M | -10.56M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.32B | 1.18B | 1.22B | 1.34B | 1.20B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 137.51M | 62.19M | 14.33M | 77.13M | 247.01M |
| Total Debt | 171.78M | 300.12M | 254.92M | 154.60M | 168.86M |
| Total Liabilities | 820.59M | 799.17M | 805.54M | 847.50M | 701.55M |
| Stockholders Equity | 500.90M | 376.52M | 417.65M | 496.87M | 498.43M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 162.81M | 15.57M | -166.24M | -212.80M | 36.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 180.31M | 89.31M | -99.76M | 62.76M | 57.78M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -117.05M | -75.27M | -66.48M | -274.92M | -20.44M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 13.16M | 33.75M | 105.54M | 41.17M | 116.86M |
Amplitude Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
1.63
Price Trends
1.77
Positive
1.61
Positive
1.89
Positive
Market Momentum
0.05
Negative
62.85
Neutral
74.24
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AEL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.63 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.81, below the 50-day MA of 1.77, and below the 200-day MA of 1.89, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.24 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:AEL.
Amplitude Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | AU$365.50M | 22.19 | 17.91% | 12.80% | -23.44% | -18.10% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | AU$574.27M | -22.71 | -5.19% | ― | 6.63% | 51.90% | |
53 Neutral | AU$418.17M | -46.36 | -5.15% | ― | ― | -35.25% | |
51 Neutral | AU$357.02M | -12.99 | -7.49% | ― | -13.67% | 85.97% | |
47 Neutral | AU$178.86M | -43.75 | -1.58% | ― | ― | -220.00% | |
43 Neutral | AU$361.93M | -16.55 | -9.91% | ― | ― | 28.92% |
* Energy Sector Average
AU:AEL
Amplitude Energy
1.92
-0.72
-27.43%
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0.10
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0.24
-0.04
-15.79%
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0.21
0.02
13.89%
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0.77
0.38
97.44%
Amplitude Energy Corporate Events
Amplitude Energy outlines FY26 reporting framework and industry risk profile
Aug 17, 2026
Amplitude Energy, an Adelaide-based oil and gas producer listed on the Australian Securities Exchange, has released its FY26 full-year information with detailed commentary on how it measures and reports performance and petroleum reserves. The comp...
Amplitude Energy posts record FY26 results as East Coast gas project advances
Aug 17, 2026
Amplitude Energy reported its third consecutive year of record results in FY26, with production up 3% to 27.6 PJe, revenue rising 7% to $285.8 million and underlying EBITDAX increasing 12% to $191.8 million, supported by a 19% lift in adjusted ope...
Amplitude Energy lodges ASX corporate governance statement for FY2026
Aug 17, 2026
Amplitude Energy Limited has lodged its corporate governance statement and Appendix 4G with the ASX for the financial year ended 30 June 2026. The statement, current as at 18 August 2026, is available both in the company’s annual report and ...
Amplitude Energy schedules FY26 results webcast for August 18
Aug 12, 2026
Amplitude Energy Limited will release its FY26 full‑year results on Tuesday, 18 August 2026, accompanied by a conference call and webcast led by Managing Director and CEO Jane Norman that morning. A recording of the webcast will be made avai...
Amplitude Energy begins search for new chair as Ian Davies signals retirement
Aug 9, 2026
Amplitude Energy, a listed gas producer targeting Australia’s Southeast domestic market, operates offshore gas fields and onshore processing facilities in the Otway and Gippsland basins and holds non-operated oil production in the Cooper Bas...
Amplitude Energy outlines risk framework and reporting standards in investor update
Jul 21, 2026
Amplitude Energy has released an investor presentation outlining its operational and financial reporting framework, emphasising the use of non-IFRS measures like EBITDAX, EBITDA, EBIT, underlying profit and free cash flow to provide additional ins...
Amplitude Energy Sets Production Records and Advances East Coast Gas Project
Jul 14, 2026
Amplitude Energy reported a strong finish to fiscal 2026, setting new records for group production at 27.6 petajoules equivalent and revenue at $285.8 million, helped by a higher realised gas price and stable operations across its basins. Despite ...
Amplitude Energy Flags Lapse of Performance Rights
Jun 30, 2026
Amplitude Energy Limited has notified the market of the cessation of 4,371 performance rights, identified as AELAI, following their lapse on June 25, 2026. The rights expired because the conditions attached to them were not met or could no longer ...
Amplitude Energy Reports Lapse of Performance Rights
Jun 30, 2026
Amplitude Energy Limited has notified the market of the cessation of 6,235 performance rights, which lapsed after specified conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied as of June 19, 2026. The move slightly reduces the company&#...
Amplitude Energy Director Discloses New Indirect Shareholding
Jun 10, 2026
Amplitude Energy Limited has disclosed a change in director Matthew Vernon Ridolfi’s relevant interest in its securities, in line with ASX listing requirements. Ridolfi has gained an indirect interest through Jasper Generations Pty Ltd, whic...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.