Ast Spacemobile, Inc. (ASTS)
NASDAQ:ASTS
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AST SpaceMobile
(NASDAQ:ASTS)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$120.00
▲(40.30% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/28/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (large operating losses and substantial free-cash-flow burn) despite low leverage. Offsetting this are strong technical momentum and a constructive earnings call focused on reiterated revenue guidance, meaningful contracted commitments, regulatory progress, and a sizable cash balance, though near-term execution and capex intensity remain significant risks.
Positive Factors
Strong liquidity runway
A ~$3.5 billion cash position provides multi-quarter runway to fund satellite builds, launches and gateway integration without immediate financing. This liquidity materially reduces near-term funding risk, allowing the company to execute capital-intensive rollout and absorb operational setbacks while pursuing commercial ramp.
Negative Factors
Severe cash burn and negative free cash flow
Large and worsening FCF consumption means the business is a net cash user while scaling. Even with current liquidity, sustained negative cash generation increases dependence on external financing or equity raises, which can dilute shareholders and alter capital allocation priorities if operational breakeven is delayed.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong liquidity runway
A ~$3.5 billion cash position provides multi-quarter runway to fund satellite builds, launches and gateway integration without immediate financing. This liquidity materially reduces near-term funding risk, allowing the company to execute capital-intensive rollout and absorb operational setbacks while pursuing commercial ramp.
Read all positive factors
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$45.86B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)23.74M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.38
Revenue Growth1732.08%
EPS Growth11.19%
CountryUS
Employees578
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryCommunication Equipment
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.80
Shares Outstanding298,746,370
10 Day Avg. Volume30,540,567
30 Day Avg. Volume23,737,238
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.76
Price to Book (P/B)10.10
Price to Sales (P/S)262.16
P/FCF Ratio-16.36
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.94
Enterprise Value/Revenue507.97
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-1.88K
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-91.84
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$86.90Price Target Upside1.60% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.04
Revenue Forecast (FY)$169.48M
AST SpaceMobile Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. operates space-based cellular broadband network for mobile phones. Its SpaceMobile service provides mobile broadband services for users traveling in and out of areas without terrestrial mobile services on land, at sea, or in ...
How the Company Makes Money
AST SpaceMobile’s intended revenue model is to commercialize satellite-based cellular connectivity by partnering with mobile network operators (MNOs) and enabling those operators to extend coverage (including remote or underserved areas) using AST...
AST SpaceMobile Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 11, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented substantial progress across technology, manufacturing scale-up, partner contracts, regulatory approvals and a strong cash position — supported by a notable on-orbit performance milestone (98.9 Mbps) and a plan to nearly double peak speeds with Block II satellites and ASIC/AI enhancements. However, the company faces timing and execution risks (launch anomaly with Blue Origin, lumpy revenue recognition tied to milestone timing, rising operating expenses and heavy, variable near-term capex). On balance, the positive operational and commercial developments, large contracted revenue backlog, FCC authorization, and robust liquidity outweigh the execution and timing risks discussed on the call.Positive Updates
ASIC and Bandwidth Capability Increase
Custom ASIC integrated into production, designed to support up to 10 GHz of processing bandwidth per satellite versus ~1 GHz on FPGA-based units — a 10x increase in managed bandwidth per satellite that should drive higher simultaneous capacity.
Negative Updates
Q1 Revenue Timing Volatility
Q1 revenue of $14.7 million represented a decline versus prior quarter expectations due to timing of gateway deployments and government milestone completions. Management emphasizes that revenue will be lumpy and should be evaluated on a full-year basis.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
ASIC and Bandwidth Capability Increase
Custom ASIC integrated into production, designed to support up to 10 GHz of processing bandwidth per satellite versus ~1 GHz on FPGA-based units — a 10x increase in managed bandwidth per satellite that should drive higher simultaneous capacity.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated 2026 revenue guidance of $150–$200 million (Q1 revenue $14.7M) and a 2027 revenue opportunity approaching $1 billion, noting roughly half of this year’s commercial pipeline is already booked; Q1 non‑GAAP adjusted operating expenses were $91.2M (adjusted OpEx excluding cost of revenues $79.8M vs $66.8M in Q4 ’25) with Q2 adjusted OpEx ex‑costs guided to $85–$95M; Q1 capital expenditures were ~$257M (vs Q4 $407M and below prior $350–$425M guidance) with Q2 CapEx guided to $575–$650M and average capital cost per Block 2 satellite estimated at $21–$23M; cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash were ~ $3.5B (including February convertible notes with a 2.25% 10‑year coupon and $116.30 effective strike); manufacturing has BB11–BB33 in advanced assembly with phased arrays completed through BB28 and a target cadence of 6 assembled satellites/month to support ~45 Bluebird satellites in orbit by year‑end 2026 (and >100 for global coverage), Block I on‑orbit peak test was 98.9 Mbps with Block II/ASIC and AI spectrum management expected to nearly double peak speeds, the technology can tune ~1,100 MHz of low/mid‑band (including 45 MHz L‑band and 60 MHz S‑band MSS rights), the company reports ~95% vertical integration, >0.5M sq ft of manufacturing, ~3,900 patents/pending, ~60 MNO partners covering >3 billion subscribers, and over $1.2B of contracted revenue commitments.AST SpaceMobile Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
24
Negative
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 84.94M | 70.92M | 4.42M | 0.00 | 13.82M | 12.40M |
| Gross Profit | -22.93M | 37.89M | 4.42M | 0.00 | 7.11M | 4.84M |
| EBITDA | -469.75M | -369.93M | -442.98M | -162.02M | -97.57M | -83.83M |
| Net Income | -487.25M | -341.94M | -300.08M | -87.56M | -31.64M | -30.55M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.05B | 5.01B | 954.56M | 360.89M | 438.37M | 443.94M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.03B | 2.34B | 564.99M | 85.62M | 238.59M | 321.79M |
| Total Debt | 28.11M | 2.24B | 173.00M | 72.87M | 12.77M | 13.16M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.39B | 2.62B | 285.42M | 147.33M | 78.55M | 91.96M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.08B | 1.84B | 479.12M | 98.99M | 133.53M | 100.28M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.30B | -1.14B | -300.27M | -267.75M | -213.75M | -134.89M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -91.03M | -71.52M | -126.14M | -148.94M | -156.46M | -80.09M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.80B | -1.54B | -174.13M | -118.81M | -31.35M | -54.79M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 4.48B | 3.83B | 779.97M | 116.73M | 102.34M | 416.94M |
AST SpaceMobile Technical Analysis
Positive
85.53
Price Trends
88.06
Positive
92.05
Positive
78.16
Positive
Market Momentum
9.57
Negative
55.55
Neutral
52.57
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASTS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 85.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 95.10, below the 50-day MA of 88.06, and above the 200-day MA of 78.16, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 9.57 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ASTS.
AST SpaceMobile Risk Analysis
AST SpaceMobile disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AST SpaceMobile reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AST SpaceMobile Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $45.21B | 16.82 | 25.11% | 2.51% | 4.40% | 1595.74% | |
71 Outperform | $93.69B | 80.27 | 5.06% | 2.26% | 12.83% | 9.07% | |
66 Neutral | $1.23B | 36.10 | 7.33% | ― | 46.26% | 111.78% | |
63 Neutral | $9.92B | -291.97 | -0.74% | ― | 2.67% | 93.53% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
53 Neutral | $45.86B | -64.27 | -32.33% | ― | 1732.08% | 11.19% | |
53 Neutral | $35.81B | -2.42 | -151.68% | ― | -5.60% | -6044.89% |
* Technology Sector Average
ASTS
AST SpaceMobile
107.73
79.04
275.50%
SATS
Echostar
120.92
104.72
646.42%
GILT
Gilat
15.48
9.50
158.86%
ERIC
Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson
13.16
4.81
57.55%
NOK
Nokia
16.73
11.42
215.24%
VSAT
ViaSat
69.62
60.73
683.13%
AST SpaceMobile Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
AST SpaceMobile gains FCC approval, advances BlueBird deployment
Positive
May 11, 2026
AST SpaceMobile reported first-quarter 2026 results on May 11, 2026, highlighting rapid progress in deploying its BlueBird satellite constellation and scaling vertically integrated production. The company is targeting about 45 satellites in orbit ...
Business Operations and Strategy
AST SpaceMobile Addresses BlueBird 7 Launch Setback
Negative
Apr 20, 2026
On April 19, 2026, AST SpaceMobile’s Block 2 BlueBird 7 satellite, launched on Blue Origin’s New Glenn 3 mission, was placed into a lower than planned orbit by the launch vehicle’s upper stage and cannot sustain operations with i...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.