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AST SpaceMobile
(NASDAQ:ASTS)
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Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$41.00
▼(-33.88% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/21/26
The score is held down primarily by very weak profitability and heavy cash burn, reinforced by a strongly bearish price trend versus key moving averages. Offsetting these are constructive earnings-call fundamentals (reiterated FY2026 revenue guidance, ~$1.3B backlog, and >$3.7B pro forma liquidity), but near-term CapEx/OpEx intensity and execution risk keep the overall profile below average.
Positive Factors
Commercial Backlog and Distribution
An approximately $1.3B contracted backlog and distribution through more than 60 MNOs covering over 3B subscribers provide a substantial commercial base. This ecosystem can support adoption and recurring network integration as satellite coverage expands, reducing reliance on a single route to market.
Negative Factors
Severe Unprofitability
Extremely negative operating and net margins show that current revenue is not yet sufficient to support the business structure. Until commercialization produces materially better unit economics, widening losses can constrain reinvestment, weaken returns on the asset base, and prolong dependence on financing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Commercial Backlog and Distribution
An approximately $1.3B contracted backlog and distribution through more than 60 MNOs covering over 3B subscribers provide a substantial commercial base. This ecosystem can support adoption and recurring network integration as satellite coverage expands, reducing reliance on a single route to market.
Read all positive factors
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$15.92B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)14.46M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.52
Revenue Growth2256.89%
EPS Growth-12.66%
CountryUS
Employees1,126
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryTelecommunications Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.16
Shares Outstanding299,789,300
10 Day Avg. Volume22,472,773
30 Day Avg. Volume14,462,271
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.75
Price to Book (P/B)10.10
Price to Sales (P/S)262.16
P/FCF Ratio-16.36
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.75
Enterprise Value/Revenue240.92
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-1.72K
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-40.94
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$80.10Price Target Upside29.17% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)-2.26
Revenue Forecast (FY)$160.37M
AST SpaceMobile Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. establishes and operates a satellite-based cellular broadband network designed to connect directly with standard mobile phones. Through its SpaceMobile service, it delivers mobile internet access to individuals in remote or u...
AST SpaceMobile Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 10, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented substantial operational and commercial progress—doubling quarterly revenue, a larger backlog (~$1.3B), strong partnerships (>60 MNOs/3B subscribers), production scale-up, government awards, and a fortified balance sheet (> $3.7B pro forma)—which are meaningful positives. Offsetting these are material near-term cash burn and CapEx, rising operating expenses, execution risk tied to launches and regulatory spectrum access, and timing uncertainty for scaled commercial service. On balance, the strategic wins, funding runway, and early commercialization signals notably outweigh the operational risks and near-term spending profile.Positive Updates
Q2 Revenue Growth
Recognized $31.5 million in revenue in Q2 2026, more than doubling Q1 revenue (>100% sequential increase), driven by commercial gateway deliveries and U.S. government milestone achievements.
Negative Updates
High Capital Expenditures
Q2 capital expenditures of approximately $610 million versus ~$257 million in Q1 (+137.7% QoQ), driven primarily by launch payments and capitalized satellite materials and labor; Q3 CapEx guidance of $350–425 million indicates continued heavy near-term cash outflow.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Q2 Revenue Growth
Recognized $31.5 million in revenue in Q2 2026, more than doubling Q1 revenue (>100% sequential increase), driven by commercial gateway deliveries and U.S. government milestone achievements.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated full‑year 2026 revenue guidance of $150–$200 million (Q2 revenue $31.5M, more than double Q1) and said revenue should grow sequentially each quarter and be weighted to Q4; Q2 non‑GAAP adjusted operating expenses were $119.1M (Q1 $91.2M) with adjusted OpEx excluding cost of revenues $95.9M (Q1 $79.8M), Q3 adjusted OpEx ex‑costs guided to $105–115M and full‑year adjusted OpEx ex‑costs expected ~ $100M/quarter (~$400M total); Q2 CapEx was ~ $610M (Q1 ~$257M) with Q3 CapEx expected ~$350–425M and average capital cost per satellite (including launch) forecast at $21–23M; production/deployment targets include BlueBirds 14–16 ready to ship and 17–46 in production, a target assembly cadence of ~6 satellites/month, ~45 satellites in orbit by early 2027 (45–60 to enable continuous service in key markets; ~9 for additional strategic markets), 13 gateways delivered in Q2 to 7 customers across 5 continents, over 3,000 U.S. low‑band cells deployed toward ~5,600 total, a revenue backlog of ~ $1.3B, pro forma cash > $3.7B (inclusive of $1.15B convertible notes at 1.625% due 2034 with an effective conversion price of $149.20 and <2% dilution), spectrum tunability of ~1,150 MHz with ~100 MHz U.S. access and >60 MHz global, ASICs in full production aiming to nearly double the 98.9 Mbps peak data speed seen on Block 1 (ASIC supports up to 10 GHz processing per satellite), and 10 launches booked with two providers targeting a monthly/bi‑monthly cadence.AST SpaceMobile Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
15
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 115.30M | 70.92M | 4.42M | 0.00 | 13.82M | 12.40M |
| Gross Profit | -16.14M | 37.89M | -58.92M | 0.00 | 7.11M | 4.84M |
| EBITDA | -678.45M | -369.93M | -179.42M | -162.02M | -97.57M | -83.83M |
| Net Income | -618.76M | -341.94M | -300.08M | -87.56M | -31.64M | -30.55M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.85B | 5.01B | 954.56M | 360.89M | 438.37M | 443.94M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.29B | 2.34B | 564.99M | 85.62M | 238.59M | 321.79M |
| Total Debt | 2.99B | 2.24B | 173.00M | 72.87M | 12.77M | 13.16M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.46B | 2.62B | 285.42M | 147.33M | 78.55M | 91.96M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.89B | 1.84B | 479.12M | 98.99M | 133.53M | 100.28M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.64B | -1.14B | -300.27M | -267.75M | -213.75M | -134.89M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -144.71M | -71.52M | -126.14M | -148.94M | -156.46M | -80.09M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.09B | -1.54B | -174.13M | -118.81M | -31.35M | -54.79M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 4.02B | 3.83B | 779.97M | 116.73M | 102.34M | 416.94M |
AST SpaceMobile Technical Analysis
Negative
62.01
Price Trends
59.02
Negative
67.23
Negative
79.35
Negative
Market Momentum
-5.46
Positive
30.55
Neutral
10.10
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASTS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 62.01 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 52.87, above the 50-day MA of 59.02, and below the 200-day MA of 79.35, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.46 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.10 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ASTS.
AST SpaceMobile Risk Analysis
AST SpaceMobile disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AST SpaceMobile reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AST SpaceMobile Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $169.21B | 16.05 | 18.22% | 2.65% | 9.68% | -10.02% | |
65 Neutral | $185.05B | 11.34 | 15.52% | 6.46% | 1.38% | -10.78% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
58 Neutral | $4.66B | 28.92 | 32.93% | 1.36% | 3.59% | 33.15% | |
55 Neutral | $10.81B | -162.77 | -17.64% | ― | 7.66% | -30.55% | |
48 Neutral | $15.92B | -18.94 | -35.08% | ― | 2256.89% | -12.66% | |
44 Neutral | $25.12B | -4.66 | -69.71% | ― | -5.17% | -1670.60% |
* Technology Sector Average
ASTS
AST SpaceMobile
38.77
-32.95
-45.94%
ECHO
Echostar
85.79
12.76
17.47%
GSAT
Globalstar
82.38
38.32
86.97%
IRDM
Iridium Communications
43.79
25.97
145.74%
VZ
Verizon
45.20
9.20
25.54%
TMUS
T Mobile US
158.79
-56.65
-26.29%
AST SpaceMobile Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
AST SpaceMobile renews executive contract with CFO Johnson
Positive
Oct 20, 2026
On October 14, 2026, AST SpaceMobile, Inc. entered into a new three-year executive employment agreement with Andrew M. Johnson, its Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Legal Officer, replacing his prior contract and setting...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
AST SpaceMobile Adopts Change-of-Control Severance Policy
Neutral
Sep 28, 2026
On September 25, 2026, AST SpaceMobile’s board compensation committee adopted a Senior Management Change of Control Severance Policy covering the CEO, president, and other top executives, including all named executive officers. The policy is...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
AST SpaceMobile Expands Satellite Network and Strengthens Liquidity
Positive
Aug 10, 2026
AST SpaceMobile reported a substantial build‑out of its space‑based cellular broadband infrastructure and commercial pipeline in the second quarter of 2026, ended June 30. By August 10, 2026, the company had 13 BlueBird satellites in l...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.