AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Risk Analysis

Costs of the design, assembly, integration, testing and launch of satellites and related components and ground infrastructure, as well as operating costs, are substantial. There can be no assurance that we will complete the SpaceMobile Service and related infrastructure, products and services on a timely basis, on budget or at all. Design, assembly and launch of satellite systems are highly complex and historically have been subject to frequent delays and cost over-runs. For example, the BW3 launch was delayed, the BW3 development costs exceeded initial estimates, BW3 testing took longer than expected, and the launch of the Block 1 BB satellites and BB6 were delayed. Development of the SpaceMobile Service, which is utilizing new technology, may continue to suffer from delays, interruptions or increased costs due to many factors, some of which may be beyond our control, including: - the failure of the SpaceMobile Service to work as expected as a result of technological or manufacturing and assembling difficulties, design issues or other unforeseen matters;- lower than anticipated demand and acceptance for the SpaceMobile Service and mobile satellite services in general;- our inability to obtain capital in the public and private markets to finance the SpaceMobile Service and related infrastructure, products and services beyond the currently funded constellation size on acceptable terms or at all;- engineering and/or manufacturing performance failing or falling below expected levels of output or efficiency;- denial or delays in receipt of regulatory approvals or non-compliance with conditions imposed by regulatory authorities;- the breakdown or failure of equipment or systems;- the inability to reach commercially viable agreements with launch providers that can accommodate the technical specifications of our satellites, proposed orbits and resulting satellite coverage, and proposed launch timing;- launch costs which may exceed our estimates;- delay or non-performance by third-party contractors or suppliers;- the inability to develop or license necessary technology on commercially reasonable terms or at all;- launch delays or failures or deployment failures or in-orbit satellite failures, including collisions and destruction of one or more satellites once launched;- the inability to reach commercially viable cooperative agreements to license spectrum with one or more MNOs;- the inability to negotiate commercially viable agreements with mobile network operators relating to the SpaceMobile Service that would supersede memoranda of understanding;- labor disputes or disruptions in labor productivity or the unavailability of skilled labor;- increases in the costs of materials or services, including due to tariffs and inflation;- changes in project scope;- increased competition including competitors that may have more resources than we do;- additional requirements imposed by changes in laws or regulations;- geopolitical events, such as the outbreak of war or hostilities, as well as related sanctions and other trade restrictions;- pandemics, epidemics or other global public health events; or - severe weather or catastrophic events such as fires, earthquakes, storms (including space storms and adverse weather in space) or explosions. If any of the above events occur, it could have a material adverse effect on our ability to continue to develop the SpaceMobile Service and related infrastructure, products and services, which would materially adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Pursuant to the Tax Receivable Agreement, we are generally required to pay the TRA Holders 85% of the amount of savings, if any, in U.S. federal, state, local, and foreign taxes that are based on, or measured with respect to, net income or profits, and any interest related thereto that we and any applicable consolidated, unitary, or combined Subsidiaries (the "Tax Group") realize, or are deemed to realize, as a result of certain "Tax Attributes," which include: - existing tax basis in certain assets of AST LLC and certain of its direct or indirect Subsidiaries, including assets that will eventually be subject to depreciation or amortization, once placed in service, attributable to AST Common Units acquired by us from a TRA Holder (including AST Common Units held by a Blocker Corporation (as defined in the Tax Receivable Agreement) acquired by us in a Reorganization Transaction (as defined in the Tax Receivable Agreement)), each as determined at the time of the relevant acquisition;- tax basis adjustments resulting from taxable exchanges of AST Common Units (including any such adjustments resulting from certain payments made by us under the Tax Receivable Agreement) acquired by us from a TRA Holder pursuant to the terms of the A&R Operating Agreement;- tax deductions in respect of portions of certain payments made under the Tax Receivable Agreement; and - certain tax attributes of Blocker Corporations holding AST Common Units that are acquired directly or indirectly by us pursuant to a Reorganization Transaction. Payments under the TRA generally will be based on the tax reporting positions that we determine (with the amount of subject payments determined in consultation with an advisory firm and subject to the TRA Holder Representative's review and consent), and the IRS or another taxing authority may challenge all or any part of a position taken with respect to Tax Attributes or the utilization thereof, as well as other tax positions that we take, and a court may sustain such a challenge. In the event that any Tax Attributes initially claimed or utilized by the Tax Group are disallowed, the TRA Holders will not be required to reimburse us for any excess payments that may previously have been made pursuant to the Tax Receivable Agreement, for example, due to adjustments resulting from examinations by taxing authorities. Rather, any excess payments made to such TRA Holders will be applied against and reduce any future cash payments otherwise required to be made by us to the applicable TRA Holders under the Tax Receivable Agreement, after the determination of such excess. However, a challenge to any Tax Attributes initially claimed or utilized by the Tax Group may not arise for a number of years following the initial time of such payment and, even if challenged earlier, such excess cash payment may be greater than the amount of future cash payments that we might otherwise be required to make under the terms of the Tax Receivable Agreement. As a result, there may not be future cash payments against which such excess can be applied, and we could be required to make payments under the Tax Receivable Agreement in excess of the Tax Group's actual savings in respect of the Tax Attributes. Moreover, the TRA provides that, in the event (such events collectively, "Early Termination Events") that (i) we exercise our early termination rights under the Tax Receivable Agreement, (ii) certain changes of control of the Company or AST occur (as described in the A&R Operating Agreement), (iii) we, in certain circumstances, fail to make a payment required to be made pursuant to the TRA by its final payment date, which non-payment continues for 60 days following such final payment date or (iv) we materially breach (or are deemed to materially breach) any of our material obligations under the TRA other than as described in the foregoing clause (iii) and, in the case of clauses (iii) and (iv), unless certain liquidity related or restrictive covenant related exceptions apply, our obligations under the TRA will accelerate (if the TRA Holder Representative so elects in the case of clauses (ii)-(iv)) and, we will be required to make a lump-sum cash payment to all the TRA Holders equal to the present value of all forecasted future payments that would have otherwise been made under the TRA, which lump-sum payment would be based on certain assumptions, including those relating to there being sufficient future taxable income of the Tax Group to fully utilize the Tax Attributes over certain specified time periods and that all AST Common Units (including AST Common Units held by Blocker Corporations) that had not yet been exchanged for Class A Common Stock or cash are deemed exchanged for cash. The lump-sum payment could be material and could materially exceed any actual tax benefits that the Tax Group realizes subsequent to such payment. Payments under the TRA will be our obligations and not obligations of AST LLC. Any actual increase in our allocable share of AST and its relevant subsidiaries' tax basis in relevant assets, as well as the amount and timing of any payments under the TRA, will vary depending upon a number of factors, including the timing of exchanges, the market price of the Class A Common Stock at the time of an exchange of AST Common Units by a TRA Holder pursuant to the terms of the A&R Operating Agreement and the amount and timing of the recognition of the Tax Group's income for applicable tax purposes. While many of the factors that will determine the amount of payments that we will be required to make under the TRA are outside of our control, we expect that the aggregate payments we will be required to make under the TRA could be substantial and could have an adverse effect on our financial condition, which could be material. Any payments made by us under the TRA will generally reduce the amount of overall cash flow that may have otherwise been available to us. To the extent that we are unable to make timely payments under the TRA for any reason, the unpaid amounts will be deferred and will accrue interest until paid. Additionally, nonpayment for a specified period and/or under certain circumstances could constitute a material breach of a material obligation under the TRA and therefore accelerate payments due under the TRA. Furthermore, our future obligation to make payments under the TRA could make us a less attractive target for an acquisition, particularly in the case of an acquirer that cannot use some or all of the Tax Attributes that may be deemed realized under the TRA. Increases in income tax rates, changes in income tax laws or disagreements with tax authorities can adversely affect our business, financial condition or results of operations.

We have received, and may continue to receive, a high degree of media coverage that is published or otherwise disseminated by third parties, including blogs, articles, message boards and social and other media. This includes coverage that is not attributable to statements made by our officers or associates. Information provided by third parties may not be reliable or accurate, may travel quickly through social media, and could materially impact the trading price of our Class A Common Stock.

Our operations and performance depend significantly on worldwide economic conditions. Uncertainty about global economic conditions poses a risk as individual consumers, businesses and governments may postpone spending in response to tighter credit, negative financial news, declines in income or asset values, or budgetary constraints. Reduced demand could cause a significant delay in the launch of our satellites or the development of the SpaceMobile Service which in turn could cause a decline in our anticipated future revenue and make it more difficult to operate profitably in the future, potentially compromising our ability to pursue our business plan. We expect our future growth rate will be affected by the condition of the global economy, increased competition, maturation of the satellite communications industry, and the difficulty in sustaining high growth rates as we increase in size.

We plan to offer our SpaceMobile Service in international markets and intend to collaborate with a number of foreign MNOs. We have engineering and development centers in India and Scotland, and engineering, development and production centers in Spain and Israel. We also source supplies from international suppliers. Operating in foreign countries poses substantial risks, including: - difficulties in developing products and services that are tailored to the needs of local customers;- unavailability of, or difficulties in establishing, relationships with local MNOs;- instability of international economies and governments, including geopolitical conflicts, acts of hostility or war;- changes in laws and policies affecting trade and investment in other jurisdictions;- exposure to varying legal standards, including data privacy, security and intellectual property protection;- difficulties in obtaining required regulatory authorizations;- difficulties in enforcing legal rights;- local domestic ownership requirements;- requirements that certain operational activities be performed in-country;- changing and conflicting national and local regulatory requirements;- foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations and exchange controls; and - ongoing compliance with the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, U.S. export controls, anti-money laundering and trade sanction laws, and similar anti-corruption and international trade laws in other countries.

Although we comply with, and expect to continue to comply with, best practices and international orbital debris mitigation requirements to actively maneuver our satellites to avoid potential collisions with space debris or other spacecraft, including an onboard propulsion system and altitude and orbit control system, these abilities are limited by uncertainties and inaccuracies in the projected orbit location of, and predicted collisions with, debris objects tracked and cataloged by governments or other entities. Additionally, some space debris is too small to be tracked and therefore its orbital location is unknown; nevertheless, this debris is still large enough to potentially cause severe damage or a failure of our satellites should a collision occur. If our satellites collide with space debris or other spacecraft, the SpaceMobile Service could be impaired. Also, a failure of one or more of our satellites or the occurrence of equipment failures, collision damage, or other related problems could constitute an uninsured loss and could materially harm our financial condition.

We rely on third parties to launch our satellites. If we fail to find third parties to launch our satellites or if the third parties fail to perform or delay their performance, the SpaceMobile Service may not be made operational in the anticipated timeframe or at all. There are a limited number of third parties with the capabilities to launch our satellites, some of which have launched services that could compete with the SpaceMobile Service and some of which only have a limited track record of being capable of launching our satellites. We have entered into launch agreements with multiple launch service providers which will enable us to continue our planned launch campaign to launch over 60 Block 2 BB satellites. We have commenced our launch campaign with the launch of BB6 on December 23, 2025 and plan to launch approximately 45 to 60 Block 2 BB satellites by the end of 2026, at a cadence of one launch approximately every one to two months on average. We do not presently have long-term contracts with third parties to launch all of the satellites which we intend to launch. Also, we may not be able to operate our satellites successfully due to mechanical deployment failures after launch or problems occurring during the deployment once in space. In addition, we may not achieve the desired altitudes to operate our satellites which could result in a failure of our satellites to operate as planned.

Our success depends, in part, on our ability to retain our key personnel. We are highly dependent on the services of Abel Avellan, our founder, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Avellan is the source of many of the unique technology and developmental features used in our business. The loss of or failure to retain Mr. Avellan or one or more of our other key employees could adversely affect our business. Our success also depends, in part, on our continuing ability to identify, attract, hire, train and develop other highly qualified personnel, in particular engineers. Experienced and highly skilled employees are in high demand and competition for these employees can be intense. Our ability to attract, hire and retain them depends on our ability to provide competitive compensation. Because our satellites are based on a different technology platform than traditional LEO satellites, individuals with sufficient training in our technology may not be available to hire, and as a result, we will need to incur significant time and expense training the employees we do hire. In addition, there may be concerns regarding new employees' unauthorized disclosure of competitors' trade secrets, which could result in litigation or prevent us from fully engaging newly hired members of our workforce. We may not be able to attract, assimilate, develop or retain qualified personnel in the future, and our failure to do so could adversely affect our business, including the execution of our business strategy. Any failure by our management team and our employees to perform as expected may have a material adverse effect on our business, prospects, financial condition and operating results.

Our business depends in large part on our ability to execute our plans to assemble, integrate and test our satellites and components and timely launch our satellites. We rely on a limited number of suppliers and launch providers to supply and produce certain highly-technical components and launch our satellites. Any failure of these suppliers and launder providers or others to perform could require us to seek alternative suppliers and launch providers or to expand our production capabilities to produce certain components in house; however, given the highly-technical nature of some of our components and technical specifications of our satellites, there is no guarantee that we will be able to find alternative suppliers and launch providers timely or at all or expand our own production capacity, which could cause us to incur additional costs and have a negative impact on our cost or supply of components and timing of our planned launches. Also, production or logistics in supply or production areas and launch sites or transit to final destinations can be disrupted for a variety of reasons, including natural and man-made disasters, information technology system failures, transportation difficulties, commercial disputes, military actions, economic, business, labor, environmental, public health or political issues or international trade disputes. If our suppliers and launch providers terminate their relationships with us, fail to provide equipment or services on a timely basis, or fail to meet performance expectations, we may be unable to launch satellites in a timely manner or provide products or services to customers in a competitive manner, which could in turn negatively affect our financial results and reputation. Our continued development of our SpaceMobile Service is and will be subject to risks, including with respect to: - securing necessary components on acceptable terms, in a timely manner and that meet our quality expectations;- delays in delivery of final component designs to our suppliers;- our ability to attract, recruit, hire and train skilled employees;- quality controls;- legal or regulatory limitations placed on our launch providers as a result of geopolitical actions or otherwise;- satellite launch or deployment failures;- negotiation of agreements with launch providers;- the availability of launch providers that can accommodate the technical specifications of our satellites, proposed orbits and resulting satellite coverage, and proposed launch timing;- delays or disruptions in supply chain; and - other delays and cost overruns. We do not know whether we will be able to develop efficient, automated, low-cost production capabilities and processes and reliable sources of supply for technical components and launch capacity that will enable us to successfully operate our SpaceMobile Service. Any failure to develop such production processes and to secure such manufacturing and launch capabilities within our projected costs and timelines could have a material adverse effect on our business, prospects, financial condition and operating results.

We have and expect to continue to insure the launch of all or a portion of our satellites to operate the SpaceMobile Service as intended, but do not intend to insure our satellites once they are launched for their remaining in-orbit operational lives. Launch insurance currently costs approximately 3.0% to 20.0% of the insured value of the satellite (including launch costs) but will vary depending on market conditions and the safety record of the launch vehicle. In the future, we may choose not to insure every launch or to only partially insure some or all launches. Even if a lost satellite is fully insured, acquiring a replacement satellite may be difficult and time consuming. Furthermore, the insurance does not cover lost revenue. We expect any launch failure insurance policies that we obtain to include specified exclusions, deductibles and material change limitations. Typically, these insurance policies exclude coverage for damage arising from acts of war, lasers, and other similar potential risks for which exclusions are customary in the industry at the time the policy is written. If launch insurance rates were to rise substantially, all of the launch costs would increase. Also, in light of increasing costs, the scope of insurance exclusions and limitations on the nature of the losses for which we can obtain insurance, or other business reasons, we may conclude that it does not make business sense to obtain third-party insurance and may decide to pursue other strategies for mitigating the risk of a satellite launch failure, such as obtaining relaunch guaranties from the launch provider. It is also possible that insurance could become unavailable, either generally or for a specific launch vehicle, or that new insurance could be subject to broader exclusions on coverage, in which event we would bear the risk of launch failures.