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Ashland
(NYSE:ASH)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$71.00
▼(-3.98% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/26/26
ASH scores in the mid-range primarily because financial performance is improving with strong TTM free cash flow, but profitability has been volatile and leverage has risen versus prior years. Technical indicators are currently bearish (below short-term moving averages with negative MACD and weak RSI/Stoch), and valuation is demanding given the high P/E despite a moderate dividend. The earnings call adds support via reaffirmed guidance, pricing progress, and strong cash conversion, but margin recovery timing remains a key risk.
Positive Factors
Recurring qualified-input demand
Ashland’s ingredients become qualified inputs in customer formulations and production processes, which can make replacement costly and support repeat purchasing. This embedded role, combined with technical assistance and application support, strengthens customer retention and gives differentiated products more durable revenue potential.
Negative Factors
Volatile profitability
The sharp move from a substantial FY2025 loss to modest TTM profitability shows that Ashland’s earnings base remains inconsistent. With only about a 4% TTM net margin, relatively small changes in production, costs, pricing, or mix could materially affect profits and reduce confidence in sustained returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring qualified-input demand
Ashland’s ingredients become qualified inputs in customer formulations and production processes, which can make replacement costly and support repeat purchasing. This embedded role, combined with technical assistance and application support, strengthens customer retention and gives differentiated products more durable revenue potential.
Read all positive factors
Ashland Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Measures profit from operations for each segment after accounting for operating costs, exposing the true earning power once overhead and fixed costs are included. Identifies which parts of Ashland are genuinely profitable, where margins can be improved, and which segments may need restructuring or additional investment.
Measures profit from operations for each segment after accounting for operating costs, exposing the true earning power once overhead and fixed costs are included. Identifies which parts of Ashland are genuinely profitable, where margins can be improved, and which segments may need restructuring or additional investment.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAshland (ASH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.23B
Dividend Yield2.37%
Average Volume (3M)644.68K
Price to Earnings (P/E)62.2
Beta (1Y)1.11
Revenue Growth-1.39%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees2,900
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.14
Shares Outstanding45,793,370
10 Day Avg. Volume639,376
30 Day Avg. Volume644,685
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.16
Price to Sales (P/S)1.21
P/FCF Ratio-550.97
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.24
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.18
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.43
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.58
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$79.00Price Target Upside6.84% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)4.29
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.93B
Ashland Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ashland Inc. operates as a global supplier of specialized chemicals and additives. Its business activities are structured into four main divisions: Life Sciences; Personal Care & Household; Specialty Additives; and Intermediates and Solvents. The ...
How the Company Makes Money
Ashland makes money primarily by selling specialty chemical ingredients and additives to business customers (B2B) across consumer and industrial markets. Revenue is generated through (1) product sales of formulated and performance additives—where ...
Ashland Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mix of clear commercial and cash-generation strengths—broad-based revenue growth (7% YoY), strong Life Sciences and Personal Care performance, inventory reduction, improved liquidity and the successful execution of Globalize and Innovate initiatives—while also acknowledging material margin pressure from earlier production disruptions, lower adjusted EBITDA versus last year, EPS headwinds from a higher tax rate, and slower-than-expected operational improvements in certain plants (notably Hopewell/HEC). Management expects pricing realization and manufacturing improvements to support a step-up in profitability in Q4 and reaffirmed revenue and EBITDA guidance, but timing of full margin recovery remains uncertain.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth and Volume Expansion
Third quarter sales of $497 million, up 7% year-over-year; volumes increased 6% across the portfolio, with foreign exchange contributing approximately $3 million (~1%).
Negative Updates
Adjusted EBITDA and Margin Pressure
Adjusted EBITDA declined to $109 million from $113 million year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 21.9% from 24.4% (a drop of ~250 basis points), reflecting operational disruptions and incentive normalization.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth and Volume Expansion
Third quarter sales of $497 million, up 7% year-over-year; volumes increased 6% across the portfolio, with foreign exchange contributing approximately $3 million (~1%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed fiscal 2026 guidance calling for sales of $1.835–$1.870 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $385–$400 million, said Q4 should see a further step-up in profitability as pricing realization and operational improvements continue, and revised adjusted EPS guidance to low- to mid‑single‑digit growth (down from prior mid‑ to high‑single‑digit) due to a higher tax rate from discrete items; they also reiterated expected free cash flow conversion of >50% of adjusted EBITDA for the year. Key near‑term and program metrics cited on the call included Q3 sales of $497 million (+7% y/y) with volumes +6% and pricing ~+1% y/y, Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $109 million (21.9% margin) and adjusted EPS excluding amortization of $1.20, free cash flow of $103 million (conversion above 90% for the quarter), available liquidity of $936 million and net leverage of 2.4x, inventory down nearly $80 million YTD, pricing run‑rate targets in the ~3–8% range (tracking the midpoint), and structural run‑rate savings of roughly $12 million from VP&D optimization plus ~$3 million from small‑plant consolidation (≈$15 million total this year).Ashland Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
61
Positive
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.84B | 1.82B | 2.11B | 2.19B | 2.39B | 2.11B |
| Gross Profit | 541.00M | 549.00M | 618.00M | 668.00M | 830.00M | 670.00M |
| EBITDA | 380.00M | -509.00M | 303.00M | 457.00M | 509.00M | 448.00M |
| Net Income | 52.00M | -845.00M | 169.00M | 178.00M | 927.00M | 220.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.58B | 4.61B | 5.64B | 5.94B | 6.21B | 6.61B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 440.00M | 215.00M | 300.00M | 417.00M | 646.00M | 210.00M |
| Total Debt | 1.48B | 1.57B | 1.47B | 1.46B | 1.38B | 2.10B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.71B | 2.71B | 2.78B | 2.84B | 2.99B | 3.86B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.87B | 1.90B | 2.87B | 3.10B | 3.22B | 2.75B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 323.00M | -4.00M | 274.00M | 73.00M | -326.00M | 455.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 394.00M | 94.00M | 411.00M | 243.00M | -213.00M | 560.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.00M | -3.00M | -51.00M | -109.00M | 1.56B | -381.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -128.00M | -179.00M | -479.00M | -371.00M | -896.00M | -426.00M |
Ashland Technical Analysis
Positive
73.94
Price Trends
71.61
Negative
67.48
Positive
62.25
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.25
Negative
52.45
Neutral
71.72
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 73.94 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 69.47, above the 50-day MA of 71.61, and above the 200-day MA of 62.25, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ASH.
Ashland Risk Analysis
Ashland disclosed 18 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ashland reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ashland Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $2.36B | 19.49 | 9.15% | 1.87% | 2.87% | 534.76% | |
70 Outperform | $7.17B | 16.20 | 7.42% | 5.36% | -4.30% | -46.24% | |
62 Neutral | $1.39B | -509.17 | -0.22% | 2.59% | 7.63% | -104.57% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
60 Neutral | $8.85B | 49.32 | 6.57% | 0.88% | 26.61% | -25.95% | |
59 Neutral | $2.67B | 13.62 | 9.51% | 1.94% | 1.48% | 72.33% | |
56 Neutral | $3.23B | 62.20 | 2.77% | 2.37% | -1.39% | ― |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
ASH
Ashland
70.57
23.54
50.04%
EMN
Eastman Chemical
62.69
5.49
9.60%
FUL
H.B. Fuller Company
49.56
-7.50
-13.14%
IOSP
Innospec
95.65
22.03
29.92%
SCL
Stepan Company
61.03
14.95
32.45%
ESI
Element Solutions
36.32
11.47
46.15%
Ashland Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Ashland Updates European Receivables Securitization Financing Program
Positive
Sep 25, 2026
On September 24, 2026, Ashland Inc. and several wholly owned international subsidiaries executed an amendment and restatement of their European accounts receivable securitization program with Bank of America entities. The updated structure maintai...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ashland Extends Receivables Financing Agreement to 2028
Positive
Jul 31, 2026
On July 30, 2026, Ashland Inc. entered into a Fifth Amendment to its Receivables Purchase Agreement, maintaining an accounts receivable securitization facility with commitments of up to $70 million and extending the agreement’s termination d...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Ashland posts stronger Q3 results and reaffirms guidance
Positive
Jul 28, 2026
Ashland Inc. reported its third-quarter fiscal 2026 results on July 28, 2026, with sales rising 7% year over year to $497 million and sales volumes up 6% across all business units, supported by broad-based demand and pricing actions that offset hi...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Ashland Adds Independent Directors, Forms Capital Allocation Committee
Positive
Jul 28, 2026
On July 27, 2026, Ashland Inc. appointed Peter Thomas and Allen Spizzo as independent directors to its board under a cooperation agreement with major shareholder Ancora Holdings, temporarily expanding the board to 11 members before trimming it to ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.