ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR) Risk Analysis

Stock markets are subject to significant price fluctuations that may be unrelated to the operating performance of particular companies, and accordingly the market price of our common stock may frequently and meaningfully change. In addition, the market price of our common stock has fluctuated and may continue to fluctuate substantially due to a variety of other factors. Possible exogenous incidents and trends may also impact the capital markets generally and our common stock prices specifically. For example, the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine and resulting economic sanctions imposed by many countries on Russia have led to disruption, instability and volatility in the U.S. and global markets and industries and are expected to have a negative impact on the U.S. and broader global economies. The timing of your purchase and sale of our common stock relative to fluctuations in its trading price may result in you losing a significant portion of your investment.

The securities of several companies have increasingly experienced significant and extreme volatility in share price due to short sellers of common stock and buy-and-hold decisions of longer investors, resulting in what is sometimes described as a "short squeeze." Short squeezes have caused extreme volatility in those companies and in the market and have led to the price per share of those companies to trade at a significantly inflated rate that is disconnected from the underlying value of the company. Sharp rises in a company's stock price may force traders in a short position to buy the shares to avoid even greater losses. Many investors who have purchased shares in those companies at an inflated rate face the risk of losing a significant portion of their original investment as the price per share has declined steadily as interest in those shares have abated. We may be a target of a short squeeze, and investors may lose a significant portion or all of their investment if they purchase our shares at a rate that is significantly disconnected from our underlying value.

In the future, we may raise capital through the issuance of debt, preferred equity or common equity securities. Upon liquidation, holders of our debt securities and preferred stock, if any, and lenders with respect to other borrowings will be entitled to our available assets prior to the holders of our common stock. Additional equity offerings may dilute the holdings of our existing stockholders or reduce the market price of our common stock, or both. Additional series of preferred stock, if issued, could have a preference on liquidation distributions or a preference on dividend payments that could limit our ability to pay dividends to the holders of our common stock. Sales of substantial amounts of our common stock (including shares of our common stock issued pursuant to our 2009 Stock Incentive Plan, as amended), or the perception that these sales could occur, could have a material adverse effect on the price of our common stock. Because our decision to issue debt or equity securities in any future offering will depend on market conditions and other factors beyond our control, we cannot predict or estimate the amount, timing, or nature of our future offerings. Thus, holders of our common stock bear the risk of our future offerings reducing the market price of our common stock and diluting the value of their stock holdings in us.

The investments we make in accordance with our investment objectives may result in a greater amount of risk as compared to alternative investment options, including relatively higher risk of volatility or loss of principal. Our investments may be speculative and aggressive, and therefore an investment in our common stock may not be suitable for someone with lower risk tolerance. One of the factors that investors may consider in deciding whether to buy or sell shares of our common stock is our distribution rate as a percentage of the trading price of our common stock relative to market interest rates. If the market price of our common stock is based primarily on the earnings and return that we derive from our investments and income with respect to our investments and our related distributions to stockholders, and not from the market value of the investments themselves, then interest rate fluctuations and capital market conditions are likely to affect adversely the market price of our common stock. For instance, if market rates rise without an increase in our distribution rate, the market price of our common stock could decrease as potential investors may require a higher distribution yield on our common stock or seek other securities paying higher distributions or interest. In addition, rising interest rates would result in increased interest expense on our variable rate debt, thereby reducing cash flow and our ability to service our indebtedness and pay distributions.

Certain provisions of the MGCL may have the effect of delaying, deferring or preventing a transaction or a change in control of the company that might involve a premium price for holders of our common stock or otherwise be in their best interests. Additionally, our charter and bylaws contain other provisions that may delay or prevent a change of control of the company. If we have a class of equity securities registered under the Exchange Act and meet certain other requirements, Title 3, Subtitle 8 of the MGCL permits us without stockholder approval and regardless of what is currently provided in our charter or bylaws, to elect to be subject to statutory provisions that may have the effect of delaying, deferring or preventing a transaction or a change in control of the company that might involve a premium price for holders of our common stock or otherwise be in their best interest. Pursuant to Title 3, Subtitle 8 of the MGCL, once we meet the applicable requirements, our charter provides that our Board will have the exclusive power to fill vacancies on our Board. As a result, unless all of the directorships are vacant, our stockholders will not be able to fill vacancies with nominees of their own choosing. We may elect to opt into additional provisions of Title 3, Subtitle 8 of the MGCL without stockholder approval at any time that we have a class of equity securities registered under the Exchange Act and satisfy certain other requirements.

In order for us to maintain our qualification as a REIT under the Code, not more than 50% in value of the issued and outstanding shares of our capital stock may be owned, actually or constructively, by five or fewer individuals (as defined in the Code to include certain entities) at any time during the last half of each taxable year (other than our first year as a REIT). This test is known as the "5/50 test." Attribution rules in the Code apply to determine if any individual actually or constructively owns our capital stock for purposes of this requirement, including, without limitation, a rule that deems, in certain cases, a certain holder of a warrant or option to purchase stock as owning the shares underlying such warrant or option and a rule that treats shares owned (or treated as owned, including shares underlying warrants) by entities in which an individual has a direct or indirect interest as if they were owned by such individual. Additionally, at least 100 persons must beneficially own our capital stock during at least 335 days of each taxable year (other than our first year as a REIT). While we believe that we meet the 5/50 test, no assurance can be given that we will continue to meet this test. Our charter prohibits beneficial or constructive ownership by any person of more than 9.8% in value or in number of shares, whichever is more restrictive, of the outstanding shares of our common stock or all classes of our capital stock. Additionally, our charter prohibits beneficial or constructive ownership of our stock that would otherwise result in our failure to qualify as a REIT. In each case, such prohibition includes a prohibition on owning warrants or options to purchase stock if ownership of the underlying stock would cause the holder or beneficial owner to exceed the prohibited thresholds. The ownership rules in our charter are complex and may cause the outstanding stock owned by a group of related individuals or entities to be deemed to be owned by one individual or entity. As a result, these ownership rules could cause an individual or entity to unintentionally own shares beneficially or constructively in excess of our ownership limits. Any attempt to own or transfer shares of our common or preferred stock, in excess of our ownership limits without the consent of our board of directors shall be void, and will result in the shares being transferred to a charitable trust. These provisions may inhibit market activity and the resulting opportunity for our stockholders to receive a premium for their shares that might otherwise exist if any person were to attempt to assemble a block of shares of our stock in excess of the number of shares permitted under our charter and which may be in the best interests of our stockholders. We may grant waivers from the 9.8% charter restriction for holders where, based on representations, covenants and agreements received from certain equity holders, we determine that such waivers would not jeopardize our status as a REIT.

Within our overall investment guidelines, we may change our target assets financing strategy and investment guidelines at any time without the consent of our stockholders, which could result in our making investments that are different from, and possibly riskier than, the investments described in this Annual Report on Form 10-K. Our Board also determines our other operational policies and may amend or revise such policies, including our policies with respect to our REIT qualification, acquisitions, dispositions, operations, indebtedness and distributions, or approve transactions that deviate from these policies, without a vote of, or notice to, our stockholders. A change in our targeted investments, financing strategy, investment guidelines and other operational policies may increase our exposure to interest rate risk, default risk and real estate market fluctuations, all of which could adversely affect the market price of our stock and our ability to make distributions to our stockholders.

Historically, we have primarily used bilateral interest rate swaps that were privately negotiated with counterparties. Under the Dodd-Frank Act, certain swaps are required to clear through a registered clearing facility and traded on a designated exchange or swap execution facility. As more swap transactions are being executed through clearing facilities, our ability to enter into new bilateral swaps is waning. We have begun using exchange -traded futures contracts and cleared swaps in place of bilateral swaps. While these contracts are more liquid than bilateral swaps, they also may require substantially higher initial margin deposits. For example, longer tenor cleared swaps may require initial margin deposits currently as high as 4.5% of the notional swap amount. Higher initial margin requirements will increase our need for liquidity.

BUCKLER has acted as placement agent for 72% of the shares of common stock that ARMOUR has issued through its ATM programs in 2022. BUCKLER's commission rate for these placements has been lower than the commission rates of other placement agents involved in our ATM program. Placement commissions represent a significant contribution to BUCKLER profitability. If BUCKLER became unable to participate in our ATM program, our placement costs would increase. If we reduce the volume of ATM placements with BUCKLER, its profitability would be adversely affected.

We are subject to conflicts of interest arising out of our relationship with ACM and its affiliates, including BUCKLER. Entities affiliated with Mr. Ulm and Mr. Zimmer are the general partners of ACM and each of Mr. Ulm, Mr. Zimmer, Mr. Staton and Mr. Bell is a limited partner in ACM. ACM and our executive officers control BUCKLER. The management agreement with ACM may create a conflict of interest and the terms, including fees payable to ACM, may not be as favorable to us as if they had been negotiated with an unaffiliated third-party. In addition, we may choose not to enforce, or to enforce less vigorously, our rights under the management agreement because of our desire to maintain our ongoing relationship with ACM. ACM maintains a contractual and fiduciary relationship with us. The management agreement with ACM does not prevent ACM and its affiliates from engaging in additional management or investment opportunities some of which will compete with us. ACM and its affiliates may engage in additional management or investment opportunities that have overlapping objectives with ours and may thus face conflicts in the allocation of investment opportunities to these other investments. Such allocation is at the discretion of ACM and there is no guarantee that this allocation would be made in the best interest of our stockholders. We are not entitled to receive preferential treatment as compared with the treatment given by ACM or its affiliates to any investment company, fund or advisory account other than any fund or advisory account which contains only funds invested by ACM (and not of any of its clients or customers) or its officers and directors. Additionally, the ability of ACM and its respective officers and employees to engage in other business activities may reduce the time spent and resources used managing our activities. ACM owns 75.4% of the equity of BUCKLER. BUCKLER may offer repurchase agreement financing to us at rates and terms that may be less advantageous to us than if they had been negotiated with third parties.

The management agreement entitles ACM to receive a management fee payable monthly in arrears calculated based on gross equity raised (see Note 9 and Note 15 to the consolidated financial statements). The annualized management fee rate is (a) 1.5% of gross equity raised up to $1.0 billion plus (b) 0.75% of gross equity raised in excess of $1.0 billion. Gross equity raised includes the total amounts of paid in capital relating to both our common and preferred stock, plus brokerage commissions and other costs of capital raising. Amounts paid to shareholders to repurchase common and preferred stock, before any brokerage commissions and costs, reduce gross equity raised. Dividends specifically designated by the Board as liquidation dividends reduce the amount of gross equity raised. To date the Board has made no such specific designation of any of the dividends paid by the Company. Pursuant to prior versions of the management agreement, gross equity raised was reduced by $123,199 to reflect dividends paid in in excess of taxable income prior to January 1, 2016. Regular dividends (including those treated as a return of capital for tax purposes on or after January 1, 2016) and investment losses do not reduce gross equity raised. Investment gains and net income do not increase gross equity raised. Accordingly, we have experienced and may continue to experience reductions in our total stockholders' equity without a commensurate reduction in management fee expense. At December 31, 2022 gross equity raised totaled $3,787,042 resulting in an effective contractual management fee rate, prior to management fees waived, of 0.95%. The resulting annualized contractual management fee of $35,903 represents 3.23% of the Company's total stockholders' equity determined in accordance with GAAP of $1,112,372 at December 31, 2022. ACM is entitled to receive monthly management fees that are based on gross equity raised regardless of our performance. Accordingly, ARMOUR has paid, and may in the future pay, significant management fees to ACM for a given month in which we experience a total comprehensive loss. ACM's entitlement to such significant nonperformance-based compensation may not provide sufficient incentive to ACM to devote its time and effort to source and maximize risk adjusted returns on our investment portfolio, which could, in turn, adversely affect our ability to pay dividends to our stockholders and the market price of our stock. Further, the management fee structure gives ACM the incentive to maximize gross equity raised by the issuance of new equity securities or the retention of existing equity, regardless of the effect of these actions on existing stockholders. In other words, the management fee structure will reward ACM primarily based on the size of our equity raised and not on our current common equity capital or financial returns to common stockholders.

Our executive officers and the employees of ACM are not required to spend all of their time managing our activities and our investment portfolio. Our executive officers and the employees of ACM currently allocate a substantial majority of their time to ARMOUR. Certain executive officers and the employees of ACM also allocate some of their time to other businesses and activities. None of these individuals is required to devote a specific minimum amount of time to our affairs, and the portion of their time devoted elsewhere could become material. As a result of these overlapping responsibilities, there may be conflicts of interest among and reduced time commitments from our officers and employees of ACM that we will face in making investment decisions on our behalf. Accordingly, we will compete with ACM, and its existing activities, other ventures and possibly other entities in the future for the time and attention of these officers. In the future, we may enter, or ACM may cause us to enter, into additional transactions with ACM or its affiliates. In particular, we may make loans to ACM or its affiliates or purchase, or ACM may cause us to purchase, assets from ACM or its affiliates or make co-purchases alongside ACM or its affiliates. These transactions may not be the result of arm's length negotiations and may involve conflicts between our interests and the interests of ACM and/or its affiliates in obtaining favorable terms and conditions.

The management agreement allows ACM to terminate its service to ARMOUR for any reason upon 180 days prior written notice. No termination fee shall be due from ACM to ARMOUR following any termination by ACM. Financial institutions that finance our investments may require that ACM continue to act in such capacity. If ACM ceases to be our manager, it may constitute an event of default and the financial institution providing the arrangement may have acceleration rights with respect to outstanding borrowings and termination rights with respect to our ability to finance our future investments with that institution. If we are unable to obtain financing for our accelerated borrowings and for our future investments under such circumstances, it is likely that we would be materially and adversely affected.

GAAP requires that earnings per share amounts be calculated based on the time-weighted average number of shares outstanding during each period. The weighted average shares outstanding used in the denominator of each per share calculation is determined separately for each quarterly and year-to-date period. Therefore, the resulting per share amounts are not additive across periods when the number of shares outstanding is changing significantly. GAAP explicitly recognizes this result ("denominator effect"), even though it is often not material because the number of shares outstanding often remains relatively constant from period to period. We regularly report book value per common share, which is calculated as stockholders' equity attributable to common stockholders (net of liquidation preferences on preferred stock) divided by the number of shares outstanding. Changes in book value per common share are partially explained by total comprehensive income or loss per share and common per share dividends declared. The residual difference between the beginning and ending book value per share is attributed to the net accretive or dilutive effect of our capital activities (share issuances and repurchases). Consequently, any denominator effect across time periods relating to total comprehensive income or loss per share will result in an equal offsetting effect in the attributed net accretion or dilution. The following table illustrates these denominator effects for ARMOUR for 2022. Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42022December 31, 2022 (1)Comprehensive Income (loss) available (related) to common stockholders$(147,967)$(96,237)$(155,710)$39,502 $(360,412)Weighted average common shares outstanding96,226 106,514 123,251 145,847 117,968 Comprehensive Income (loss) per common share$(1.54)$(0.90)$(1.26)$0.27 $(3.06)Beginning Book Value per Common Share$10.33 $8.48 $7.25 $5.83 $10.33 Comprehensive Income (loss) per common share(1.54)(0.90)(1.26)0.27 (3.06)Dividends Declared per common Share(0.30)(0.30)(0.30)(0.30)(1.20)Accretive (Dilutive) Effect of Capital Activity(0.01)(0.03)0.14 (0.02)(0.29)Ending Book Value per Common Share$8.48 $7.25 $5.83 $5.78 $5.78 (1) Per shares amounts are not intended to be added across periods under GAAP. In this illustration, comprehensive loss per common share for the year ended December 31, 2022, is $0.37 per share lower than the algebraic sum of corresponding amounts for the four individual quarters of the year. Similarly, the dilutive effect of our capital activity is $0.37 per common share larger when calculated on an annual basis as compared to the algebraic sum of the individual quarterly calculations. The denominator effect is also present when aggregating days into a month or months into a quarter for purposes of per share calculations. Accordingly, the attributed accretion or dilution we report for a quarter or longer period may not be fully representative of the daily results of our capital activities.

We only repurchase stock by accepting unsolicited offers in open market transactions and only when the market trading price is significantly below our current estimate of ARMOUR's book value per common share. These depressed market trading prices may be temporary as a result of relatively transient anomalies. Selling stockholders may base their decisions on less sophisticated research and analytical tools than are available to ARMOUR, and therefore be at a potential disadvantage.

The market trading price of our common stock tends to be positively correlated with the general price levels of the MBS that represent our target investments. Therefore, opportunities to raise capital at attractive prices may occur when potential investment opportunities are relatively less attractive. Accordingly, we may temporarily invest the proceeds of stock issuances by reducing our repo borrowings on our existing portfolio or purchasing US Treasuries or other assets in anticipation of more attractive MBS investment opportunities in the future. Typically, we purchase our MBS for regular settlement, which occurs only once a month. Accordingly, even when we are able to invest the proceeds of stock issuances in MBS at attractive prices, there may be a temporary delay before we begin to earn investment income.

We have historically been active in raising capital for ARMOUR. Through February 2019, we primarily relied on "block" offerings placed through a syndicate of underwriters to issue new shares of our common stock. The number of shares offered typically represents a multiple of daily trading volume and the offering price is typically set at a discount to recently reported market prices to facilitate the timely sale to investors. The public announcement of the transactions may depress market trading prices, potentially for an extended period of time. We continue from time to time to evaluate underwritten block offerings and may execute one or more in the future depending on overall considerations of size, pricing and market conditions. Since 2020, we have relied on "at the market" offerings (or "ATM") to issue new shares of our common stock. Under our ATM programs, we instruct a placement agent to accept bids and post offers for our stock in the regular trading markets throughout the trading day. These transactions are typically executed through automated trading algorithms and subject to limits including minimum sales prices and maximum percentage of trading volume. A placement agent may also entertain direct offers from its institutional customers on our behalf. Our ATM sales are not the subject of contemporaneous public reporting. Therefore, the direct impact on overall market trading prices for our stock is difficult to discern, but may also be negative. Fees to placement agents for ATM transactions represent a lower percentage of stock proceeds than underwriting fees for block offerings. We consider the potential dilution of existing shareholders as part of our decision to issue new shares. ARMOUR's board of directors has authorized the issuance of new common shares where the net proceeds to the Company, after fees and expenses, represents at least 93.5% of our most recent estimate of ARMOUR's book value per common share. We endeavor to achieve net proceeds representing a higher percentage. For 2022, we realized net proceeds that averaged approximately 98% of recently estimated book value, resulting in an aggregate dollar dilution of $9,528. We also consider the favorable impact of spreading administrative and operating expenses over an increased number of common shares.