Ardelyx (ARDX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $988.12M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 5.41M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.91
• Revenue Growth: 168.06%
• EPS Growth: 44.66%
• Country: US
• Employees: 395
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 57
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.17
• Shares Outstanding: 238,356,220
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,882,965
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,412,182
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.15
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.03
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $10.95
• Price Target Upside: 165.13% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10

Ardelyx presents a mixed outlook with strong revenue growth and strategic advancements highlighted in the earnings call. However, persistent profitability challenges, negative cash flows, and valuation concerns weigh on the score. The stock's technical indicators suggest caution, as it trades below key moving averages with potential overbought signals.

Positive Factors

Earnings Guidance

Management highlighted the +57% year-over-year growth for Ibsrela and maintained fiscal year 2025 sales guidance of $240-250MM.

Financial Position

Ardelyx ended 4Q24 with a strong cash position of $250.1M, providing runway for investment in commercial infrastructure and possible business development or pipeline opportunities.

Market Opportunities

Ibsrela and Xphozah continue to build momentum in large market opportunities with no second-line competition, supporting a clear path to returned profitability.

Negative Factors

Litigation Uncertainty

Litigation against CMS presents uncertainty, with the outcome and date for oral arguments still pending.

Revenue Impact

Xphozah Q1 revenue was impacted by the loss of Medicare D coverage due to oral only phosphate drugs being included in the ESRD bundle.

Sales Performance

ARDX reported Q1 product sales of $67.8MM missing consensus of $76.8MM, largely due to weaker than anticipated Ibsrela sales.

Ardelyx Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ardelyx, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, discovers, develops, and commercializes medicines to treat gastrointestinal and cardiorenal therapeutic areas in the United States and internationally. The company's lead product candidate is tenapanor, which has completed Phase III clinical trial for the treatment of patients with irritable bowel syndrome with constipation, as well as in Phase III clinical trial to control serum phosphorus in adult patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD)on dialysis, or hyperphosphatemia. It is also developing RDX013, a potassium secretagogue, for the treatment of elevated serum potassium, or hyperkalemia, a problem among certain patients with kidney and/or heart disease; and RDX020, an early-stage program in metabolic acidosis, a serious electrolyte disorder in patients with CKD. The company has agreements with Kyowa Kirin in Japan, Fosun Pharmaceutical Industrial Development Co. Ltd. in China, and Knight Therapeutics, Inc. in Canada for the development and commercialization of tenapanor in their respective territories. The company was formerly known as Nteryx, Inc. and changed its name to Ardelyx, Inc. in June 2008. Ardelyx, Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Ardelyx generates revenue primarily through the commercialization of its proprietary product, tenapanor. The company earns money by selling this medication to healthcare providers and pharmacies, which distribute it to patients. Additionally, Ardelyx may engage in licensing agreements and strategic partnerships to expand its product's reach and enhance its market penetration. Such collaborations can include upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties based on sales, contributing to the company's revenue streams. Ardelyx's revenue model is heavily reliant on the successful adoption and market acceptance of tenapanor, as well as its ability to establish and maintain strong partnerships within the healthcare and pharmaceutical sectors.

Ardelyx Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ardelyx showcases potential in revenue growth but struggles with profitability and cash flow management. While the balance sheet is relatively stable, consistent net losses and negative cash flows present challenges. The company needs to focus on operational efficiency and profitability to enhance financial performance.

Income Statement

Ardelyx has shown a strong revenue growth trajectory with substantial increases in total revenue over recent periods. Gross profit margin is healthy, but the company is still facing challenges with profitability as reflected by a negative net profit margin. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, indicating operational challenges and cost management issues.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, indicating a balanced approach in leveraging financing through debt. However, the return on equity remains negative due to consistent net losses, indicating the need for improved profitability to enhance shareholder returns. The equity ratio suggests a stable capital structure, but overall asset utilization needs improvement for better financial health.

Cash Flow

Despite negative operating cash flows, Ardelyx has managed to maintain adequate liquidity through financing activities. However, the free cash flow remains negative, indicating challenges in generating surplus cash from operations. The ratios of operating and free cash flow to net income are unfavorable, highlighting persistent cash flow management difficulties.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
333.62M	124.46M	52.16M	10.10M	7.57M
	Gross Profit
283.06M	106.66M	48.04M	9.10M	7.43M
	EBIT
-27.95M	-63.28M	-63.76M	-154.35M	-90.78M
	EBITDA
-16.71M	-55.35M	-60.98M	-150.85M	-85.24M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-39.14M	-66.07M	-67.21M	-158.16M	-94.31M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
250.10M	184.30M	123.91M	116.69M	186.48M
	Total Assets
435.75M	297.58M	190.07M	149.91M	201.56M
	Total Debt
153.44M	55.98M	36.46M	45.50M	53.32M
	Net Debt
88.51M	34.51M	-59.68M	-26.92M	-37.71M
	Total Liabilities
262.46M	130.76M	91.74M	67.30M	75.45M
	Stockholders Equity
173.29M	166.82M	98.33M	82.62M	126.11M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-45.82M	-90.06M	-70.10M	-154.42M	-81.76M
	Operating Cash Flow
-44.81M	-89.72M	-70.04M	-152.55M	-81.44M
	Investing Cash Flow
-18.32M	-131.25M	18.41M	50.95M	-31.44M
	Financing Cash Flow
106.59M	146.29M	75.34M	83.00M	22.78M

Ardelyx Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 4.13
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ARDX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.13 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.78, below the 50-day MA of 5.04, and below the 200-day MA of 5.50, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 35.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ARDX.

Ardelyx Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MDXG	71 Outperform	$933.48M	22.21	22.29%	―	8.52%	-32.91%
AUPH	69 Neutral	$1.12B	212.69	1.52%	―	33.97%	―
ARDX	60 Neutral	$988.12M	―	-36.26%	―	168.06%	44.66%
LQDA	52 Neutral	$1.35B	―	-209.35%	―	-19.97%	-37.22%
Sector *	52 Neutral	$5.35B	3.96	-42.60%	2.86%	17.58%	1.27%
OCUL	50 Neutral	$1.40B	―	-95.21%	―	9.03%	-25.00%
CLDX	47 Neutral	$1.37B	―	-26.84%	―	1.99%	15.95%

Ardelyx Corporate Events

Ardelyx Appoints Dr. Merdad Parsey to Board

On April 28, 2025, Ardelyx, Inc. appointed Dr. Merdad Parsey to its Board of Directors as a Class I director, with his term extending until the 2027 Annual Meeting of Stockholders. Dr. Parsey, deemed independent by Nasdaq standards, will also join the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee starting June 18, 2025. His compensation includes stock options, restricted stock units, and annual cash retainers, aligning with the company’s Non-Employee Director Compensation Program.

Spark’s Take on ARDX Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, ARDX is a Neutral.

Ardelyx’s stock score is influenced by its robust revenue growth and successful product launches, which are encouraging indicators of future potential. However, ongoing profitability challenges, increasing leverage, and a negative valuation impact the overall score. The earnings call provided optimism with strong financial growth and strategic priorities but highlighted potential risks such as increased expenses and loss of coverage for key products.

To see Spark’s full report on ARDX stock, click here.