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Aspen Pharmacare
(OTC:APNHY)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$10.00
▲(7.30% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/06/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial quality (profitability/cash flow recovery and de-leveraging) supported by a positive technical trend. Offsetting factors are a less attractive valuation (P/E ~25 with a modest yield) and earnings-call risks tied to manufacturing/steriles disruption and the need to execute on the FY27 recovery plan and divestment-related balance sheet improvement.
Positive Factors
Commercial Pharma growth and margin expansion
Commercial Pharma is showing broad-based growth and operating leverage across injectables, prescription medicines, and OTC products. This stronger mix and 29.2% EBITDA margin can provide a more durable earnings foundation while manufacturing operations recover.
Negative Factors
Manufacturing performance has deteriorated sharply
The lost mRNA contract and related settlement caused a substantial adverse EBITDA swing, exposing the earnings sensitivity of Aspen’s manufacturing platform to contract concentration and execution. Replacing that contribution will be necessary for a durable group recovery.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Commercial Pharma growth and margin expansion
Commercial Pharma is showing broad-based growth and operating leverage across injectables, prescription medicines, and OTC products. This stronger mix and 29.2% EBITDA margin can provide a more durable earnings foundation while manufacturing operations recover.
Read all positive factors
Aspen Pharmacare (APNHY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.18B
Dividend Yield1.3%
Average Volume (3M)43.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)25.2
Beta (1Y)0.34
Revenue Growth-13.45%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees9,557
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.87
Shares Outstanding446,252,320
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume43
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.08
Price to Book (P/B)0.86
Price to Sales (P/S)2.00
P/FCF Ratio14.78
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.7
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.31B
Aspen Pharmacare Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets specialty and branded pharmaceutical products in Africa, the Middle East, the Americas, Europe CIS, Australasia, and Asia. It operates through Commercial P...
How the Company Makes Money
Aspen Pharmacare makes money primarily by selling pharmaceutical products and by providing pharmaceutical manufacturing services. A key revenue stream is the commercial sale of medicines—Aspen earns revenue when it sells its owned or licensed bran...
Aspen Pharmacare Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 03, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 11, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveys a balanced picture: strong operational cash generation, clear commercial pharma momentum (notably GLP‑1 traction), and a material APAC divestment that should materially strengthen the balance sheet and unlock shareholder value. Offsetting these positives are significant near‑term manufacturing and sterile segment setbacks (large EBITDA and revenue hits from lost contracts), a meaningful short‑term decline in group earnings, and ongoing macro/regulatory and currency risk. Management presented a defined recovery plan (cost reshaping, contract commercialization, insulin ramp, French site wins and sterile restructuring) and targets FY27 restoration of prior EBITDA levels, but execution is required to convert the improvements signaled into sustainable results.Positive Updates
Strong free cash flow generation
Cash from operations ZAR 3.6bn (up from ZAR 1.8bn prior half); CapEx reduced to ZAR 1.6bn (from ZAR 2.6bn), producing ~ZAR 2bn of free cash flow for the half. Cash generation aided by lower working capital, lower cash finance costs and tax timing optimization.
Negative Updates
Manufacturing segment collapse driven by mRNA contract loss
Manufacturing revenue down ~26% CER and EBITDA down ~85% (from ~ZAR 1.3bn to ~ZAR 0.2bn). Loss of the mRNA contract (~ZAR 1.5bn benefit prior year) plus settlement (~ZAR 500m) produced ~ZAR 1bn adverse swing to H1 EBITDA.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong free cash flow generation
Cash from operations ZAR 3.6bn (up from ZAR 1.8bn prior half); CapEx reduced to ZAR 1.6bn (from ZAR 2.6bn), producing ~ZAR 2bn of free cash flow for the half. Cash generation aided by lower working capital, lower cash finance costs and tax timing optimization.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance focused on a stronger H2 and FY26 driven by Commercial Pharma and cash generation: Commercial Pharma is guided to mid‑single‑digit revenue growth and double‑digit constant‑currency EBITDA growth (H1 Commercial Pharma: +4% revenue CER, +11% EBITDA CER, EBITDA margin 29.2%); Manufacturing is guided to be broadly in line with prior year as the group recoups the ~ZAR1.0bn lost contract contribution (H1 Manufacturing: revenue -26% CER, EBITDA down ~85% to ~ZAR0.2bn) and Steriles are targeted to reach EBITDA breakeven or better by FY27. Group targets include at least double‑digit normalized HEPS growth and a much stronger H2 (H1 group revenue ~ZAR21bn, normalized EBITDA ~ZAR5.05bn, continuing‑ops H1 EBITDA ~ZAR3.8bn; normalized HEPS H1 ZAR5.75, -21%); cash metrics are improving (cash from operations H1 ZAR3.6bn, CapEx H1 ZAR1.6bn, free cash flow ≈ZAR2bn for the half), net debt reduced to ZAR28.6bn (leverage ~3.4x) and, subject to the APAC divestment (AUD237m gross ≈ ZAR26.5–27bn; assets held for sale ~ZAR21.8bn; expected net proceeds >ZAR25bn), the group expects most debt to be eliminated, an H2 profit on sale of c.ZAR1.8–2.0bn and a net after‑tax impact (net of interest savings) of ~ZAR0.85bn, with a goal to restore group EBITDA to about ZAR9.6bn by FY27.Aspen Pharmacare Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
73
Positive
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 34.14B | 43.36B | 44.71B | 40.71B | 38.61B |
| Gross Profit | 13.76B | 19.13B | 19.42B | 18.41B | 18.31B |
| EBITDA | 7.16B | 2.16B | 9.90B | 10.19B | 9.93B |
| Net Income | 2.59B | -1.08B | 4.40B | 5.23B | 6.49B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 107.41B | 135.89B | 139.16B | 134.28B | 111.38B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 15.87B | 6.41B | 12.34B | 10.91B | 6.18B |
| Total Debt | 15.44B | 36.12B | 36.46B | 29.28B | 22.25B |
| Total Liabilities | 27.68B | 51.00B | 54.29B | 48.05B | 40.43B |
| Stockholders Equity | 79.73B | 84.89B | 84.86B | 86.24B | 70.94B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.63B | 104.00M | 690.00M | 2.34B | 2.68B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.73B | 5.16B | 6.22B | 5.52B | 5.37B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 23.83B | -5.22B | -9.47B | -3.42B | -2.16B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -20.86B | -162.00M | 3.62B | -420.00M | -4.68B |
Aspen Pharmacare Technical Analysis
Positive
9.32
Price Trends
9.21
Positive
8.92
Positive
7.97
Positive
Market Momentum
0.14
Negative
52.05
Neutral
33.40
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For APNHY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.27, above the 50-day MA of 9.21, and above the 200-day MA of 7.97, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.40 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for APNHY.
Aspen Pharmacare Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $4.18B | 25.24 | 3.28% | 1.30% | -13.45% | ― | |
66 Neutral | $2.51B | 155.39 | 1.43% | ― | -8.81% | -96.21% | |
60 Neutral | $5.57B | 35.06 | -326.75% | ― | 9.28% | 4917.17% | |
54 Neutral | $2.07B | -1.19 | -55.97% | 7.77% | -4.18% | -2138.82% | |
53 Neutral | $2.53B | -22.66 | -10.42% | ― | 24.85% | -264.42% | |
52 Neutral | $2.08B | -9.10 | 76.83% | ― | -12.17% | -365.51% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
APNHY
Aspen Pharmacare
9.43
3.62
62.44%
PRGO
Perrigo Company
14.92
-5.49
-26.88%
SUPN
Supernus Pharmaceuticals
43.53
-2.29
-5.00%
HCM
HUTCHMED
14.09
-2.02
-12.54%
AMRX
Amneal Pharmaceuticals
17.44
7.71
79.24%
ALVO
Alvotech
5.32
-2.84
-34.80%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.