Aperam SA (APEMY) AI Stock Analysis

Aperam SA

(Other OTC:APEMY)

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Rating:58Neutral

Price Target:$40.00▲(4.82% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:11/01/26

The score reflects improving fundamentals (strong TTM revenue rebound and solid operating/free cash flow) tempered by still-thin margins and cyclical earnings volatility. Technicals are the main drag, with the stock trading below major moving averages and negative momentum signals. Valuation is supported by a high dividend yield but offset by a mid-range P/E.

Positive Factors

Revenue RecoveryThe sharp TTM revenue rebound indicates that Aperam has regained meaningful business activity after a trough. A stronger top line can improve operating leverage, support utilization of its production and finishing network, and provide a foundation for recovery in earnings as market conditions normalize.

Negative Factors

Thin Profit MarginsVery low net and operating margins leave limited room for adverse changes in steel prices, raw materials, energy, or logistics costs. Even with revenue recovery, modest profitability means small changes in spreads or product mix can materially affect earnings and returns.

Aperam SA (APEMY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $2.87B
Dividend Yield: 5.92%
Average Volume (3M): 741
Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.2
Beta (1Y): 1.09
Revenue Growth: 3.01%
EPS Growth: -30.47%
Country: US
Employees: 13,000
Sector: Basic Materials
Sector Strength: 61
Industry: Steel

Aperam SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aperam S.A., along with its affiliated companies, operates globally as a manufacturer and vendor of stainless and specialized steel products. Its business activities are organized into three primary divisions: Stainless & Electrical Steel, Services &...

How the Company Makes Money

Aperam primarily makes money by manufacturing and selling steel products—especially stainless and specialty steels—to industrial and commercial customers. Revenue is generated mainly from (1) sales of stainless steel flat products (e.g., coils, sheet...

Aperam SA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026(Q4-2025)|% Change Since:-10.21%|Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call presents a mix of constructive company-specific progress and near-term market headwinds. Highlights include clear CapEx and investment plans (EUR 200m CapEx in 2026 and EUR 160m site upgrades over 3 years), an articulated Leadership Journey expected to add ~EUR 150m EBITDA (including Universal synergies), a stronger Q1/Q2 EBITDA run-rate (EUR 100m quarterly in H1), improved Brazil performance (EUR ~75m EBITDA) and flexible spare EAF capacity with a 7%–10% potential utilization uplift. Lowlights are primarily market-driven: a Q4 import surge created an H1 inventory overhang, CBAM/trade defense timing and importer behaviors remain uncertain (despite a planned 1 July start), a ~EUR 300/tonne margin gap versus historic averages, and limited forward visibility due to short order books (2.5 months). On balance, company fundamentals, clear targets, capacity to ramp and diversification into alloys/specialties give meaningful upside potential, while the lowlights represent industry and timing risks that management is actively addressing.

Positive Updates

Capacity Utilization and Upside Potential

Current European capacity utilization at Aperam is between 65% and 75%. Management expects a 7%–10% utilization lift from replacement of imports under trade defense measures, and notes flexible electric-arc-furnace (EAF) capacity that can be ramped quickly to capture this upside.

Negative Updates

Import Surge and Inventory Overhang

Significant surge of imports at the end of Q4 created an inventory overhang that is expected to depress demand/put pressure on the market into H1 2026 as distributors draw down stocks.

Company Guidance

Management guidance: Q1 EBITDA is expected to be higher than Q4 with a ~EUR100m quarterly run‑rate across H1 2026 (slow start in Q1, ramp in Q2); normalized FY guidance is EUR700–800m (versus a prior ~EUR800m target), built from a 2025 baseline of EUR350m plus ~EUR150m from the Leadership Journey and ~EUR50m of announced investments (full effect by 2029), with the remaining EUR50–75m dependent on trade‑defense/CBAM recovery; CapEx is c. EUR200m in 2026 (including EUR160m of site upgrades over 3 years; continuity CapEx ~EUR150m); current capacity utilization is ~65–75% with safeguard measures expected to lift utilization 7–10%; Brazil delivered ~EUR75m EBITDA in 2025 (low cycle) and higher Brazilian duties (c.12.6%→25%) are expected to add mid‑single‑digit EUR EBITDA per quarter; A&S target ~EUR100m (+ ~EUR60m from Universal and ~EUR9m synergies) and R&R guidance remains around EUR80–85m; order books run ~2.5 months, Q4 import surge may create an H1 overhang, EU trade measures aim to start 1 July 2026, CBAM payments are retroactive to 2027, and nickel exposure is limited with fuel‑alloys positions fully hedged.

Aperam SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials show improvement off a trough: TTM revenue rebounded sharply (+58.4%) and cash generation is positive with healthy operating cash flow (~$479M) and free cash flow (~$354M). Offsetting this, profitability remains thin (net margin ~2.1%, operating margin ~2.0%) and results have been volatile through the cycle, while ROE is still low (TTM ~3.9%) and leverage has drifted higher versus 2023–2024 (TTM debt-to-equity ~0.41).

Income Statement

56Neutral

Balance Sheet

72Positive

Cash Flow

63Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.03B	6.08B	6.25B	6.59B	8.16B	5.10B
Gross Profit	1.74B	341.00M	449.00M	330.00M	1.18B	1.23B
EBITDA	362.52M	247.00M	354.00M	364.00M	960.00M	1.20B
Net Income	123.46M	9.00M	231.00M	203.00M	625.00M	968.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.78B	6.21B	5.84B	6.21B	6.26B	5.91B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	334.00M	324.86M	216.00M	443.00M	457.00M	524.00M
Total Debt	1.33B	1.30B	760.00M	934.00M	925.00M	990.00M
Total Liabilities	3.49B	3.00B	2.47B	2.76B	2.87B	2.96B
Stockholders Equity	3.27B	3.19B	3.35B	3.44B	3.38B	2.94B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	354.26M	273.75M	125.00M	170.00M	346.00M	398.00M
Operating Cash Flow	479.05M	405.34M	280.00M	471.00M	642.00M	550.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-172.21M	-565.75M	-155.00M	-303.00M	-297.00M	-183.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-209.13M	267.99M	-336.00M	-152.00M	-419.00M	-197.00M

Aperam SA Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative

Last Price38.16

Price Trends

50DMA48.01Negative

100DMA50.47Negative

200DMA49.06Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-2.58Negative

RSI33.61Neutral

STOCH22.66Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For APEMY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 38.16 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.49, below the 50-day MA of 48.01, and below the 200-day MA of 49.06, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.58 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 33.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for APEMY.

Aperam SA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

APEMY against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CRS	68Neutral	$14.02B	25.52	26.93%	0.28%	10.21%	38.28%
Sector *	61Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
PKX	60Neutral	$15.08B	14.90	2.39%	3.01%	0.76%	144.37%
MTUS	58Neutral	$875.41M	37.40	1.17%	―	16.12%	―
APEMY	58Neutral	$2.71B	20.19	3.94%	5.92%	3.01%	-30.47%
MT	53Neutral	$44.59B	25.98	3.31%	1.18%	3.25%	-27.63%
WS	48Neutral	$2.08B	-72.09	-2.72%	1.53%	69.13%	-132.01%

* Basic Materials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

APEMY and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
APEMY	Aperam	39.59	6.53	19.75%
MT	ArcelorMittal	61.20	24.71	67.74%
CRS	Carpenter Technology Corp	290.96	-14.91	-4.87%
PKX	Posco	51.30	-2.47	-4.59%
MTUS	Metallus Inc.	21.32	3.91	22.46%
WS	Worthington Steel, Inc.	41.81	11.51	37.98%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 01, 2026

Aperam SA AI Stock Analysis