Alvotech (ALVO) AI Stock Analysis

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Alvotech

(NASDAQ:ALVO)

Rating:49Neutral

Price Target:

$9.50

▲(5.44%Upside)

Alvotech's score is primarily influenced by its financial performance, which indicates rapid growth but significant financial instability. The earnings call provided a positive outlook with raised guidance and strategic product launches. However, technical analysis shows bearish signals and valuation is moderately high, affecting the overall score.

Alvotech (ALVO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$2.78B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)260.96K

Price to Earnings (P/E)26.7

Beta (1Y)0.76

Revenue Growth539.47%

EPS GrowthN/A

CountryUS

Employees1,012

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength46

IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.35

Shares Outstanding301,805,660

10 Day Avg. Volume205,313

30 Day Avg. Volume260,963

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.19

Price to Book (P/B)-3.50

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio-5.47

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.98

Enterprise Value/Revenue1.60

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.65

Enterprise Value/Ebitda-9.38

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$28.00

Price Target Upside210.77% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering1

Alvotech Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAlvotech, through its subsidiaries, develops and manufactures biosimilar medicines for patients worldwide. It offers biosimilar products in the therapeutic areas of autoimmune, eye, and bone disorders, as well as cancer. The company's lead program is AVT02, a high concentration formulation biosimilar to Humira to treat various inflammatory conditions, including rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis, Crohn's disease, ulcerative colitis, plaque psoriasis, and other indications; AVT04, a biosimilar to Stelara to treat various inflammatory conditions comprising psoriatic arthritis, Crohn's disease, ulcerative colitis, plaque psoriasis, and other indications; AVT06, a biosimilar to Eylea to treat various conditions, such as age-related macular degeneration, macular edema, and diabetic retinopathy; and AVT03, a biosimilar to Xgeva and Prolia, which is in the pre-clinical phase to treat prevent bone fracture, spinal cord compression, and the need for radiation or bone surgery in patients with certain types of cancer, as well as prevent bone loss and increase bone mass. It also offers AVT05, a biosimilar to Simponi and Simponi Aria, which is in early phase development to treat various inflammatory conditions, including rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis, ulcerative colitis, and other indications; AVT16, a biosimilar to an immunology product; AVT23, a biosimilar to Xolair, which is in late-stage development to treat nasal polyps; and AVT33, a biosimilar to an oncology product. The company was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Reykjavik, Iceland.

How the Company Makes MoneyAlvotech generates revenue primarily through the development, manufacturing, and commercialization of biosimilar drugs. These biosimilars are sold to healthcare providers, distributors, and pharmaceutical companies, either directly or through strategic partnerships. The company has established collaborations with various global and regional partners to enhance distribution, regulatory approval, and market access, which are crucial factors in driving its earnings. Alvotech’s revenue model relies on entering markets with expiring biologic patents, offering competitive pricing strategies to gain market share, and expanding its pipeline of biosimilar products to sustain growth.

Alvotech Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 13.48%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 13, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The call presented a strong financial performance with raised revenue guidance and successful product launches, despite some challenges like strong price competition and potential tariff impacts.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Increased Revenue Guidance

Top line revenue guidance for 2025 is raised to $600 million to $700 million, and adjusted EBITDA guidance is raised to $200 million to $280 million.

Strong Financial Performance

Fourth consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA and operating profits with triple-digit increases in both product revenues and total revenues compared to the same quarter in the previous year.

Stelara Biosimilar Success

Successful launch of Stelara biosimilar in the U.S. and other markets, with a significant market share and recent FDA approval for interchangeability.

Product Pipeline Expansion

Three biosimilar filings under review in major markets, expected to launch by Q4 2025, expanding to six marketed biosimilars by early 2026.

Positive Cash Flow

Generated $17 million of positive cash flows from operations in Q1, expecting to be free cash flow positive in 2025.

Negative Updates

Price Competition

Strong price competition for Stelara biosimilar in the U.S., which is described as opportunistic and potentially detrimental to developers.

Tariff Concerns

Potential U.S. tariffs on pharmaceuticals are under review, which could impact market competitiveness.

Company Guidance

During the Alvotech Q1 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance by revising its full-year financial projections upward, reflecting strong performance and strategic developments. The top-line revenue guidance was increased to a range of $600 million to $700 million, while the adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised to $200 million to $280 million. Alvotech reported a $110 million increase in product revenues for the first quarter, driven by successful launches of biosimilars to Humira and Stelara. The company also achieved a positive adjusted EBITDA of $21 million and expects to be free cash flow positive in 2025. Alvotech plans to launch three new biosimilars by Q4 2025, contributing further to revenue diversification. The guidance reflects the company's robust pipeline, strategic partnerships, and the anticipated growth in biosimilar market share, particularly in the U.S. market.

Alvotech Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Alvotech shows rapid revenue growth and improving profitability, but faces financial challenges with high leverage and negative equity. Cash flow issues and reliance on financing for liquidity pose risks to long-term viability.

Income Statement

Neutral

Alvotech's revenue has shown significant growth over the years, notably with a leap from $91 million in 2023 to $489 million in 2024, and further to $586 million in TTM. The gross profit margin improved substantially, reaching 60.6% in TTM. However, net income has been volatile, swinging from a loss of $232 million in 2024 to a profit of $96 million in TTM, indicating potential profitability but also underlying instability. The EBIT margin is positive at 22% in TTM, reflecting improved operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Very Negative

The balance sheet reveals a high debt burden, with total debt exceeding total assets, leading to a negative stockholders' equity of $302 million in TTM. The debt-to-equity ratio is not meaningful due to negative equity, and the equity ratio is also negative, indicating financial instability. A high leverage risk is evident.

Cash Flow

Negative

Alvotech's cash flow statements show consistent negative free cash flows, with a slight improvement in TTM compared to 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, suggesting that earnings are not translating into cash flows effectively. Financing activities are primarily supporting cash flows, raising concerns about sustainability.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
585.61M	489.68M	91.43M	83.03M	36.77M	66.62M
	Gross Profit
354.81M	304.37M	-69.42M	18.93M	36.77M	66.62M
	EBIT
128.65M	69.64M	-354.86M	-346.44M	-235.46M	-137.54M
	EBITDA
138.86M	-28.66M	-484.86M	-439.80M	3.99M	-125.67M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
96.55M	-231.86M	-551.73M	-513.58M	-101.50M	-170.04M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
38.54M	51.43M	11.16M	66.43M	17.56M	31.69M
	Total Assets
1.25B	1.22B	950.09M	828.44M	597.98M	474.42M
	Total Debt
1.23B	1.19B	1.08B	805.10M	523.05M	676.85M
	Net Debt
1.19B	1.14B	1.06B	738.67M	505.50M	645.16M
	Total Liabilities
1.55B	1.63B	1.88B	1.39B	733.59M	1.34B
	Stockholders Equity
-302.29M	-412.77M	-932.49M	-564.42M	-135.61M	-867.24M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-224.65M	-293.84M	-358.66M	-361.39M	-268.80M	-86.28M
	Operating Cash Flow
-148.89M	-236.84M	-312.19M	-312.39M	-228.17M	-74.30M
	Investing Cash Flow
-35.78M	-18.87M	-46.34M	-63.54M	-40.63M	-16.90M
	Financing Cash Flow
158.29M	297.31M	301.32M	424.91M	254.83M	55.40M

Alvotech Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price9.01

Price Trends

50DMA

9.45

Negative

100DMA

10.47

Negative

200DMA

11.34

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.13

Positive

RSI

35.28

Neutral

STOCH

1.38

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALVO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.01 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.42, below the 50-day MA of 9.45, and below the 200-day MA of 11.34, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 1.38 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ALVO.

Alvotech Risk Analysis

Alvotech disclosed 95 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alvotech reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks

We may need to refinance all or a portion of our indebtedness and cannot assure you that refinancing will be available on commercially reasonable terms, or at all. Q4, 2023

Termination or expiration of governmental programs or tax benefits, could adversely affect us. Q4, 2023

We operate our main R&D and manufacturing facility in Iceland which is an island with a relatively limited number of ports of entry by sea or air which may impact logistics. Geologic activity, in particular volcanic eruptions could impact transport and cause disruptions to our supply chain or ability to export product. Q4, 2023

Alvotech Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (54)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SUPN	70 Outperform	$1.85B	29.84	6.32%	―	11.82%	―
HCM	64 Neutral	$2.73B	71.40	5.06%	―	-25.48%	-63.36%
PRGO	63 Neutral	$3.61B	―	-3.64%	4.41%	-4.85%	-4290.31%
AMRX	56 Neutral	$2.49B	―	106.97%	―	13.42%	92.50%
Sector *	54 Neutral	$5.24B	3.26	-44.35%	6.48%	16.78%	-0.10%
DVAX	53 Neutral	$1.24B	64.45	-10.45%	―	24.76%	-783.38%
ALVO	49 Neutral	$2.78B	26.72	128.44%	―	539.47%	―

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

ALVO

Alvotech

9.01

-4.50

-33.31%

DVAX

Dynavax

10.30

-0.95

-8.44%

PRGO

Perrigo Company

26.32

1.72

6.99%

SUPN

Supernus Pharmaceuticals

32.96

6.16

22.99%

HCM

HUTCHMED

15.43

-1.83

-10.60%

AMRX

Amneal Pharmaceuticals

7.94

1.19

17.63%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.