Allurion Technologies (ALUR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $18.50M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 589.81K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.90
• Revenue Growth: -41.98%
• EPS Growth: 88.34%
• Country: US
• Employees: 134
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Medical - Devices
• EPS (TTM): 1.46
• Shares Outstanding: 7,457,758
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 86,305
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 589,814
• PEG Ratio: 0.00
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.33M
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -755.46M
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.43K
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 185.22
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.41K
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -292.01
• 1Y Price Target: $10.63
• Price Target Upside: 328.63% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

• Rating: 47 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.50 ▲(0.81%Upside)

Allurion Technologies' overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, including liquidity issues and high leverage, which are the most impactful factors. While the earnings call highlighted strategic improvements and efforts toward profitability, these are tempered by revenue declines and ongoing losses. Technical indicators and valuation further underscore the stock's risk profile, suggesting caution for potential investors.

Positive Factors

Combination Therapy

Management plans to initiate a clinical development program to investigate the combination therapy with the Allurion balloon and GLP-1s, which could generate strong total body weight loss outcomes.

FDA Approval

The FDA has been receptive to ALUR using alternative methods to analyze control group data that could put it in a much stronger position vs. its pre-specified endpoints.

Sales Growth

The Allurion Balloon has been cleared to resume sales in France, which historically accounted for ~15% of sales, potentially providing a meaningful tailwind to ALUR's growth trajectory.

Negative Factors

Revenue Underperformance

Sales of $5.6MM were below the estimate of $6.5MM, indicating underperformance.

Valuation Concerns

The price target for Allurion Technologies, Inc. has been significantly lowered to $6 from the previous $16, reflecting a recent contraction in small-cap valuations.

Workforce Reduction

ALUR's restructuring plan, which includes a 50% reduction in workforce, aims to realign its cost base with strategic priorities.

Allurion Technologies Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Allurion Technologies (ALUR) is a pioneering company in the health and wellness sector, specializing in innovative weight loss solutions. The company's flagship product is the Allurion Program, which is centered around the Allurion Balloon, a swallowable, non-surgical gastric balloon designed to aid in weight loss. The program integrates this medical device with a comprehensive support system, including nutritional advice and digital tracking tools, to facilitate and sustain weight loss for individuals struggling with obesity.

How the Company Makes Money

Allurion Technologies generates revenue primarily through the sale of its Allurion Program, which includes the Allurion Balloon and associated services. The company partners with healthcare providers and clinics to distribute its program, earning revenue from these partnerships. Additionally, Allurion may benefit from recurring revenue streams through follow-up services, including nutritional guidance and digital health tools, which are part of the holistic weight loss program offered to clients. Strategic partnerships with medical institutions and clinics also play a significant role in expanding their market reach and driving sales.

Allurion Technologies Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Allurion Technologies faces significant financial challenges, including declining revenue, persistent losses, high leverage, and negative cash flows. The company's financial structure is concerning, with negative stockholders' equity and liquidity issues, indicating a need for strategic changes to stabilize and improve financial health.

Income Statement

Allurion Technologies has experienced significant revenue fluctuations, with a notable decline from 2022 to 2023. The company faces negative profit margins, including a negative gross profit margin in 2024, and sustained losses in net income, EBIT, and EBITDA, indicating ongoing challenges in achieving profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a concerning financial structure, with negative stockholders' equity and high leverage as indicated by a high debt-to-equity ratio. The equity ratio is negative, reflecting a risk of insolvency, compounded by the decline in assets and insufficient equity to cover liabilities.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows persistently negative operating and free cash flows, signaling liquidity issues. The company has relied heavily on financing activities to fund operations, which is unsustainable in the long term without improved financial performance.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
28.30M	32.11M	53.47M	64.21M	38.24M	0.00
	Gross Profit
18.80M	21.50M	41.50M	50.73M	29.19M	0.00
	EBIT
-46.08M	-50.20M	-79.08M	-32.01M	-12.50M	-5.17K
	EBITDA
-22.45M	-22.17M	-69.03M	-32.28M	-8.01M	-5.17K
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-24.36M	-26.15M	-80.61M	-37.74M	-12.39M	-5.17K
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
20.41M	15.38M	38.04M	7.68M	25.84M	47.09K
	Total Assets
38.41M	32.81M	71.71M	51.37M	39.35M	329.96K
	Total Debt
32.98M	37.92M	41.86M	59.53M	26.14M	170.00K
	Net Debt
12.57M	22.54M	3.82M	51.85M	300.00K	122.91K
	Total Liabilities
108.20M	110.79M	142.20M	122.81M	73.64M	310.13K
	Stockholders Equity
-69.79M	-77.98M	-70.49M	-71.44M	-34.28M	19.83K
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-43.64M	-42.91M	-65.59M	-48.53M	-15.24M	―
	Operating Cash Flow
-43.13M	-42.30M	-63.98M	-46.98M	-14.33M	―
	Investing Cash Flow
-507.00K	-611.00K	-1.61M	-1.55M	-912.00K	0.00
	Financing Cash Flow
34.32M	20.21M	95.99M	30.54M	28.95M	47.13K

Allurion Technologies Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2.48
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALUR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.48 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.78, below the 50-day MA of 2.59, and below the 200-day MA of 8.21, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.17 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ALUR.

Allurion Technologies Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	54 Neutral	$5.37B	3.26	-45.10%	3.30%	16.81%	0.02%
PAVM	53 Neutral	$11.04M	0.90	-499.57%	―	-33.92%	―
ALUR	47 Neutral	$18.50M	―	38.80%	―	-41.98%	88.34%
ADGM	45 Neutral	$16.77M	―	-329.16%	―	2115.38%	-4.40%
LFWD	43 Neutral	$12.11M	―	-93.11%	―	85.24%	-27.93%
IINN	35 Underperform	$18.60M	―	-196.69%	―	―	―
MOVE	23 Underperform	$4.64M	―	-439.23%	―	―	56.73%

Allurion Technologies Corporate Events

Allurion Technologies Enhances Financial Agreements and Governance

Allurion Technologies announced an Omnibus Amendment to its existing financial agreements, which includes maintaining certain cash balances and revenue requirements. It also entails securing marketing authorizations in France and the U.S. for its products. The amendment allows investors to receive common stock or preferred shares, and it grants the right for investor representatives to join the board of directors, indicating a strategic move to strengthen financial and operational stability.