Alto Ingredients (ALTO) Risk Analysis

The domestic market for fuel-grade ethanol is significantly impacted by federal mandates for volumes of renewable fuels (such as ethanol) required to be blended with gasoline. Future demand for fuel-grade ethanol will largely depend on incentives to blend ethanol into motor fuels, including the price of ethanol relative to the price of gasoline, the relative octane value of ethanol, constraints on the ability of vehicles to use higher ethanol blends, and the EPA's established volumes from time to time, small refinery waivers, and other applicable environmental requirements. The EPA has implemented the Renewable Fuel Standard under the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. The EPA, in coordination with the Secretary of Energy and the Secretary of Agriculture, determines annual quotas for the quantity of renewable fuels (such as fuel-grade ethanol) that must be blended into motor fuels consumed in the United States. The EPA finalized mandatory volumes of 15 billion gallons for each of 2026 and 2027 of conventional renewable fuels, or corn-based fuel-grade ethanol. These requirements remain subject to future EPA rulemakings, and conventional renewable fuel volumes for years after 2027 could increase or decline from current levels. The EPA may grant small refinery exemptions, in whole or in part, that reduce or eliminate annual RFS volume obligations for small refineries, which are defined as refineries with an average aggregate daily crude oil throughput not exceeding 75,000 barrels. If granted, these exemptions can remove the affected refinery's gasoline and diesel from applicable RFS percentage standards for the relevant compliance year. In the past, the EPA has granted small refinery exemptions that have materially and adversely affected overall demand for and the price of fuel-grade ethanol. Federal courts have repeatedly vacated EPA denials of small refinery exemption petitions. In June 2025, the U.S. Supreme Court in EPA v. Calumet Shreveport Refining held that challenges to small refinery exemption denials must be filed in the D.C. Circuit. Since then, the EPA has issued multiple rounds of decisions on small refinery exemption petitions, including actions in August 2025 and November 2025 granting full or partial exemptions for a number of refineries for the 2016-2024 compliance years. In April 2026, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit likewise vacated EPA's denial of certain small refinery exemption petitions for the 2024 compliance year and remanded those petitions to EPA for further consideration. In light of these court decisions and the EPA's recent actions granting full or partial exemptions to a substantial number of petitions, small refinery exemptions may continue to be granted at elevated levels, which could materially and adversely affect overall demand for, and the price of, fuel-grade ethanol. Various bills in Congress introduced from time to time are also directed at altering existing renewable fuels energy legislation, but none have directly amended the RFS program in recent years. Some legislative bills are directed at halting or reversing expansion of, or even eliminating in its entirety, the renewable fuel program. Our results of operations, cash flows and financial condition could be adversely impacted if the EPA reduces mandatory volumes or issues significant small refinery waivers, or if any legislation is enacted that reduces volume requirements or if existing legislation is reinterpreted to have the same effect.

We are subject to various federal, state and local environmental laws and regulations, including those relating to the discharge of materials into the air, water and ground; the generation, storage, handling, use, transportation and disposal of hazardous materials and wastes; and the health and safety of our employees. In addition, some of these laws and regulations require us to operate under permits that are subject to renewal or modification. These laws, regulations and permits often require expensive pollution control equipment or operational changes to limit actual or potential impacts to the environment. Any violation of these laws and regulations or permit conditions may result in substantial fines, natural resource damages, criminal sanctions, permit revocations and/or production facility shutdowns. In addition, we have made, and expect to make, significant capital expenditures on an ongoing basis to comply with increasingly stringent environmental laws, regulations and permits. We may be liable for the investigation and cleanup of environmental contamination at each of our production facilities and at off-site locations where we arrange for the disposal of hazardous substances or wastes. If these substances or wastes have been or are disposed of or released at sites that undergo investigation and/or remediation by regulatory agencies, we may be responsible under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act of 1980, or other environmental laws for all or part of the costs of investigation and/or remediation, and for damages to natural resources. For example, our Pekin Campus used coal as its primary source of fuel for steam production until 2016. We managed associated waste in part through a coal ash pond, an engineered impoundment site used to store waste byproducts. We operated the pond under an Illinois state operating permit that included a special condition that any ash impoundments either be capped and closed in accordance with an Illinois EPA-approved closure plan or removed. Although we continue to operate pumps and maintain protocols under operating permit conditions, our permit has expired, has not been renewed and we are in discussions with the Illinois EPA regarding a closure plan or other remediation. The Illinois EPA previously denied our closure plan for a beneficial re-use that would have utilized the ash as a structural fill. Although we continue to pursue a closure plan that would involve beneficial re-use, including potential uses such as grain storage, cogeneration, CO2 utilization, a hydrogen facility or other beneficial use, including third-party redevelopment, we can provide no assurance that the Illinois EPA will allow any beneficial re-use nor can we provide any assurance that the Illinois EPA will not mandate site cleanup, the costs of which, while not estimable at this time, could be substantial and could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations. We may also be subject to related claims by private parties alleging property damage and personal injury due to exposure to hazardous or other materials at or from those properties. Some of these matters may require us to expend significant amounts for investigation, cleanup or other costs not covered by insurance. In addition, new laws, new interpretations of existing laws, increased governmental enforcement of environmental laws or other developments could require us to make significant additional expenditures. Continued government and public emphasis on environmental issues will likely result in increased future investments for environmental controls at our production facilities. Present and future environmental laws and regulations, and interpretations of those laws and regulations, applicable to our operations, more vigorous enforcement policies and discovery of currently unknown conditions may require substantial expenditures that could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition. The hazards and risks associated with producing and transporting our products (including fires, natural disasters, explosions and abnormal pressures and blowouts) may also result in personal injury claims or damage to property and third parties. As protection against operating hazards, we maintain insurance coverage against some, but not all, potential losses. However, we could sustain losses for uninsurable or uninsured risks, or in amounts in excess of existing insurance coverages. Events that result in significant personal injury or damage to our property or third parties or other losses that are not fully covered by insurance could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition.

Our business depends on the continuing availability of rail, road, port, storage and distribution infrastructure. In particular, due to limited storage capacity at some of our production facilities and other considerations related to production efficiencies, certain facilities depend on timely delivery of corn. Alcohol production also requires a significant and uninterrupted supply of other raw materials and energy, primarily water, electricity and natural gas. Local water, electricity and gas utilities may fail to reliably supply the water, electricity and natural gas that our production facilities need or may fail to supply those resources on acceptable terms. In the past, poor weather has caused disruptions in rail transportation, which slowed the delivery of fuel-grade ethanol and/or corn by rail to and from our facilities. For example, in late April 2025, during a period of rapidly rising river levels, our loadout dock at our Pekin Campus was damaged, negatively impacting production and logistics, and requiring our use of more costly third-party river transload vendors to minimize business interruption. In addition, in the first quarter of 2024, extreme cold weather conditions in January at our Pekin Campus restricted barge deliveries and increased standby fees. To manage inventory levels, we transported more product by rail, a higher cost mode of transportation. Cold weather conditions also required us to shift to lower margin feed products and reduced our production rates across our Pekin Campus, hindering our ability to produce specialty alcohol at full capacity. Disruptions in production or distribution, whether caused by labor difficulties, unscheduled downtimes and other operational hazards inherent in the alcohol production industry, including equipment failures, fires, explosions, abnormal pressures, blowouts, pipeline ruptures, transportation accidents, climate change and natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods and storms, or other weather effects, or human error or malfeasance or other reasons, could prevent timely deliveries of corn or other raw materials and energy, and could delay transport of our products to market, and may require us to halt production at one or more production facilities, any of which could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. Some of these operational hazards may also cause personal injury or loss of life, severe damage to or destruction of property and equipment or environmental damage, and may result in suspension of operations and the imposition of civil or criminal penalties. Our insurance may not fully cover the potential hazards described above or we may be unable to renew our insurance on commercially reasonable terms or at all.

The prices of our products are volatile and subject to large fluctuations. For example, the market price of fuel-grade ethanol is dependent upon many factors, including the supply of ethanol and the price of gasoline, which is in turn dependent upon the price of petroleum which itself is highly volatile, difficult to forecast and influenced by a wide variety of global economic and geopolitical conditions, including decisions concerning petroleum output by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and their allies, an intergovernmental organization that seeks to manage the price and supply of oil on the global energy market. Other important factors that impact the price of petroleum include war and threats of war, attacks on or threats to shipping vessels as has recently occurred in the Red Sea, the consequent rerouting of supply lines to less direct or more expensive paths, and other supply chain disruptions. Our fuel-grade ethanol sales are tied to prevailing spot market prices rather than long-term, fixed-price contracts. Fuel-grade ethanol prices, as reported by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, ranged from $1.57 to $2.07 per gallon in 2025, $1.38 to $2.12 per gallon in 2024 and from $1.58 to $2.67 per gallon in 2023. In addition, even under longer-term, fixed-price contracts for our specialty alcohols, our customers may seek to renegotiate prices under those contracts during periods of falling prices or high price volatility. Fluctuations in the prices of our products may cause our results of operations to fluctuate significantly.