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Astera Labs, Inc.
(NASDAQ:ALAB)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$304.00
▲(7.55% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:08/05/26
ALAB scores well on fundamentals and near-term outlook: strong margins, rapid scaling, a debt-free balance sheet, and notably bullish Q3 guidance with Scorpio X ramping to volume production. The overall score is held back by very expensive valuation (P/E ~196) and mixed technical signals (negative MACD and only neutral momentum indicators), which increase downside risk if growth or ramp execution falls short.
Positive Factors
AI Connectivity Adoption
Rapid revenue growth and rising PCIe 6 penetration indicate strong adoption of Astera’s connectivity products in expanding AI and cloud infrastructure architectures, supporting higher content per system and durable demand as customers deploy more complex platforms.
Negative Factors
Scorpio Customer Concentration
Dependence on a small number of major Scorpio programs increases execution and customer-timing risk. Any delayed deployment, qualification issue or altered platform plan could materially affect growth before customer diversification improves.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
AI Connectivity Adoption
Rapid revenue growth and rising PCIe 6 penetration indicate strong adoption of Astera’s connectivity products in expanding AI and cloud infrastructure architectures, supporting higher content per system and durable demand as customers deploy more complex platforms.
Read all positive factors
Astera Labs, Inc. Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across regions, revealing whether Astera Labs relies on a handful of markets or has broad international demand. For a supplier of data-center and AI connectivity chips, geographic concentration can indicate exposure to trade restrictions, supply-chain risks, or dependence on large cloud customers, while growing sales in high-demand regions point to stronger long-term expansion potential.
Breaks down revenue across regions, revealing whether Astera Labs relies on a handful of markets or has broad international demand. For a supplier of data-center and AI connectivity chips, geographic concentration can indicate exposure to trade restrictions, supply-chain risks, or dependence on large cloud customers, while growing sales in high-demand regions point to stronger long-term expansion potential.
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The Fly
The FlyAstera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$51.52B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.15M
Price to Earnings (P/E)129.0
Beta (1Y)2.77
Revenue Growth98.48%
EPS Growth256.17%
CountryUS
Employees756
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySemiconductors
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.17
Shares Outstanding173,485,100
10 Day Avg. Volume3,341,460
30 Day Avg. Volume4,151,813
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.41
Price to Book (P/B)20.30
Price to Sales (P/S)32.47
P/FCF Ratio98.25
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$410.25Price Target Upside45.14% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)3.95
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.89B
Astera Labs, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Astera Labs, Inc. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor-based connectivity solutions for cloud computing and artificial intelligence infrastructure. Its core offering, the Intelligent Connectivity Platform, comprises a comprehensive portfo...
How the Company Makes Money
Astera Labs primarily makes money by selling semiconductor products (and related hardware/solutions) that enable high-speed connectivity inside servers and data center systems. Its revenue model is largely product-based: it generates sales when cu...
Astera Labs, Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a strongly positive operational and financial picture: record revenue, rapid transition to PCIe 6, Scorpio X entering volume production ahead of schedule, record Aries performance, meaningful product-roadmap expansion (CXL, optics), and robust profitability and cash. The primary concerns are execution and concentration risk around the Scorpio ramp, elevated near-term operating expenses, and margin variability driven by product mix. Overall, the highlights materially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Strong Top-Line Growth
Q2 revenue of $392.4 million, up 27% sequentially and up 104% year-over-year, driven by broad-based strength across product portfolio.
Negative Updates
Increased Operating Expenses and Ongoing Investment
Q2 non-GAAP operating expenses were $135.8M, up 10% sequentially as the company invests in roadmap and scaling; Q3 OpEx guidance is $156M–$160M, indicating continued elevated spend to support product ramps.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and Strong Top-Line Growth
Q2 revenue of $392.4 million, up 27% sequentially and up 104% year-over-year, driven by broad-based strength across product portfolio.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided Q3 non‑GAAP revenue of $540–$560 million (midpoint implying roughly 40% sequential growth from Q2’s $392.4M) and said Scorpio will become the largest product family as Scorpio X moves to volume production. They expect Q3 non‑GAAP gross margin of ~72% (Q2 was 73.7%), non‑GAAP operating expenses of $156–160M, non‑GAAP operating margin of ~43% (up ~400 bps sequentially), interest & other income of ~$12M, a non‑GAAP tax rate of ~12%, diluted share count of ~185M, and non‑GAAP diluted EPS of $1.16–$1.21. Management also highlighted $1.25B of cash on hand and said the guidance is driven by the Scorpio X ramp, continued Aries PCIe‑6 strength, and pre‑production Taurus 100G/lane shipments.Astera Labs, Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
92
Very Positive
Cash Flow
79
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.20B | 852.52M | 396.29M | 115.79M | 79.87M |
| Gross Profit | 903.00M | 645.26M | 302.70M | 79.83M | 58.68M |
| EBITDA | 334.00M | 224.98M | -78.62M | -21.17M | -56.77M |
| Net Income | 369.49M | 219.13M | -83.42M | -26.26M | -58.34M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.93B | 1.53B | 1.05B | 196.29M | 211.73M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.25B | 1.19B | 914.30M | 149.31M | 163.14M |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 35.15M | 1.29M | 2.93M | 1.60M |
| Total Liabilities | 205.80M | 168.19M | 89.71M | 38.87M | 297.02M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.73B | 1.36B | 964.80M | 157.43M | -85.29M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 276.68M | 281.76M | 102.43M | -15.48M | -39.77M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 335.71M | 319.31M | 136.68M | -12.72M | -35.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -399.40M | -241.47M | -757.57M | -17.77M | -90.59M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 11.81M | 9.80M | 655.84M | -502.00K | 151.67M |
Astera Labs, Inc. Technical Analysis
Negative
282.65
Price Trends
337.00
Negative
300.62
Negative
222.96
Positive
Market Momentum
-11.11
Negative
41.90
Neutral
50.58
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALAB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 282.65 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 304.28, below the 50-day MA of 337.00, and above the 200-day MA of 222.96, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -11.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.58 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ALAB.
Astera Labs, Inc. Risk Analysis
Astera Labs, Inc. disclosed 64 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Astera Labs, Inc. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Astera Labs, Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $185.60B | 69.00 | 16.22% | 0.12% | 30.62% | ― | |
73 Outperform | $1.76T | 59.72 | 36.40% | 0.67% | 32.29% | 125.17% | |
73 Outperform | $42.51B | 70.04 | 31.59% | ― | 205.68% | 755.03% | |
72 Outperform | $20.15B | 81.88 | 17.09% | ― | 28.36% | ― | |
69 Neutral | $51.52B | 128.99 | 25.24% | ― | 98.48% | 256.17% | |
63 Neutral | $39.88B | 98.95 | 6.90% | 2.31% | 20.93% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% |
* Technology Sector Average
ALAB
Astera Labs, Inc.
279.91
105.67
60.65%
AVGO
Broadcom
369.68
73.61
24.86%
MTSI
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings
262.01
130.96
99.93%
MRVL
Marvell
210.39
145.93
226.38%
MCHP
Microchip
71.41
9.43
15.22%
CRDO
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd
206.63
82.36
66.28%
Astera Labs, Inc. Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Astera Labs Shareholders Approve Directors and Governance Measures
Positive
Jun 8, 2026
Astera Labs, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Stockholders Meeting on June 4, 2026, with 141,439,565 of 171,281,952 eligible common shares represented in person or by proxy. Shareholders elected all three Class II director nominees, Sanjay Gajendra, Crai...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.