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Akzo Nobel (AKZOY) AI Stock Analysis

AKZOY

Akzo Nobel

(Other OTC:AKZOY)

Select Model
Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:$23.50â–²(6.50% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:10/23/26

AKZOY scores as moderately attractive: the biggest constraint is fundamentals—sharp recent revenue decline, elevated leverage, and weakening free-cash-flow momentum—despite improved margins. The latest earnings call is a meaningful support, with maintained EBITDA guidance, pricing power to offset inflation, and continued margin expansion, though volumes and regulatory/transaction risks remain. Valuation is reasonable with a solid dividend, while technicals are neutral and suggest limited near-term trend strength.

Positive Factors
Pricing Power and Margin ExpansionSustained pricing execution has more than offset raw-material inflation and supported six consecutive quarters of margin expansion. This indicates differentiated commercial capability and improving operating discipline, helping protect profitability even while volumes remain under pressure.
Negative Factors
Structural Revenue ContractionThe sharp TTM revenue decline raises concern that recent profitability improvements may not be durable without a demand recovery. A smaller top line can reduce operating leverage, limit reinvestment capacity and make it harder to sustain earnings growth across the next several quarters.

Akzo Nobel (AKZOY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-20%-10%0%10%20%30%AKZOY+4.88%SPY+11.79%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
$34.02B
Dividend Yield
3.51%
Average Volume (3M)
208.98K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
15.6
Beta (1Y)
0.82
Revenue Growth
-0.12%
EPS Growth
1453.82%
Country
US
Employees
31,500
Sector
Basic Materials
Sector Strength
61
Industry
Chemicals - Specialty

Akzo Nobel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Akzo Nobel N.V. operates as an international corporation, specializing in the creation, production, and distribution of a comprehensive array of paints and protective surface coverings. The company's offerings fall into two primary categories: decora...

How the Company Makes Money

Akzo Nobel makes money primarily by selling paints and coatings products and related services to professional and consumer customers worldwide. Its revenue model is largely volume- and price-driven: the company manufactures coatings and decorative pa...

Akzo Nobel Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 20, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:0.69%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 09, 2027
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was predominantly positive. AkzoNobel reported organic sales growth, continued pricing execution, six consecutive quarters of margin expansion, improved working capital, lower leverage, strong value realization from portfolio disposals, and maintained its 2026 EBITDA outlook. These achievements were partly offset by lower volumes, challenging automotive, construction and China markets, high single-digit raw material inflation, transaction-related cash outflows, and pending regulatory clearances for the Axanzo merger.

Positive Updates

Organic Sales Growth and Margin Expansion
Q3 organic sales increased 2%, supported by strong pricing of plus 5%, while adjusted EBITDA rose EUR 15 million to EUR 388 million at comparable scope and constant currencies. The adjusted EBITDA margin increased 20 basis points year-on-year to 15.3%, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of margin expansion.

Negative Updates

Volumes Declined Year-on-Year
Q3 volumes decreased 2% year-on-year, including a 2% decline in Coatings and a 3% decline in Paints. Year-to-date volumes were down 1%.

Company Guidance

AkzoNobel continues to expect 2026 adjusted EBITDA of around EUR 1.47 billion; for Q4, volumes are forecasted to be flat, pricing is expected to be a slight net positive against raw material inflation, and OpEx savings will be delivered as per plan. Pricing will continue to fully offset the inflation currently seen and go further if required, including into next year; raw material inflation was high single digits up in Q3, with a similar trend expected in Q4. The Axanzo value case remains $600 million of cost synergies, around 90% within 3 years of closing, and 100 to 200 basis points of revenue synergy uplift, with closing remaining on track for early 2027.

Akzo Nobel Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement shows improving profitability (TTM net margin ~6.6%, gross margin ~40%), but the top line is weakening with a sharp TTM revenue decline (~-18%). Balance sheet leverage is elevated and higher versus prior years (debt-to-equity up to ~1.34 TTM), reducing flexibility. Cash flow remains positive (TTM FCF ~$477M) but is declining (~-19% TTM) with inconsistent conversion historically, tempering confidence in sustained cash generation.

Income Statement

64Positive

Balance Sheet

55Neutral

Cash Flow

50Neutral
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue9.89B9.76B10.71B10.67B10.85B9.59B
Gross Profit4.02B3.89B4.34B4.23B3.92B3.85B
EBITDA2.21B1.48B1.40B1.33B1.06B1.53B
Net Income649.75M609.94M542.00M442.00M352.00M829.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets16.29B13.95B14.25B14.56B14.74B13.88B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.47B1.92B1.47B1.78B1.79B1.21B
Total Debt6.61B4.86B5.37B5.56B5.88B3.55B
Total Liabilities11.19B9.13B9.43B10.01B10.19B8.24B
Stockholders Equity4.94B4.66B4.57B4.32B4.33B5.42B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow477.38M582.08M362.00M834.00M-38.00M317.00M
Operating Cash Flow774.41M878.89M668.00M1.12B254.00M605.00M
Investing Cash Flow319.55M407.27M-132.00M-144.00M-1.09B-134.00M
Financing Cash Flow694.79M-925.95M-684.00M-827.00M1.14B-974.00M

Akzo Nobel Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive
Last Price22.07

Price Trends

50DMA22.27Negative
100DMA22.56Negative
200DMA21.73Positive

Market Momentum

MACD-0.00Negative
RSI50.94Neutral
STOCH15.67Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AKZOY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.07 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.90, below the 50-day MA of 22.27, and above the 200-day MA of 21.73, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.00 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.67 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AKZOY.

Akzo Nobel Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

AKZOY against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
RPMRPM72Outperform$13.06B18.8621.13%2.14%5.96%0.68%
AXTAAXTA72Outperform$7.29B21.8413.48%―0.14%-25.40%
SHWSHW69Neutral$80.35B30.2963.49%0.96%7.03%5.95%
PPGPPG62Neutral$26.40B16.9819.05%2.40%6.39%27.29%
Sector *61Neutral$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
AKZOYAKZOY60Neutral$11.39B15.5613.55%3.51%-0.12%1453.82%
ASHASH56Neutral$3.42B65.512.77%2.24%-1.39%―

* Basic Materials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%20%40%60%AKZOYASHPPGRPMSHWAXTADec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
AKZOY and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
AKZOYAkzo Nobel22.070.763.56%
ASHAshland Global Holdings, Inc.74.6827.7659.17%
PPGPpg Industries, Inc.119.5226.9829.16%
RPMRPM International102.44-3.61-3.41%
SHWSherwin-Williams332.61-9.78-2.86%
AXTAAxalta Coating Systems34.075.9721.25%

Akzo Nobel Corporate Events

Akzo Nobel Posts Q3 2026 Results and Confirms 2026 EBITDA Target

Oct 21, 2026

Akzo Nobel reported its third-quarter 2026 results on October 21, 2026, posting 2% organic sales growth driven by pricing, while overall revenue remained flat amid lower volumes in Decorative Paints and Performance Coatings. Operating income fell dee...

AkzoNobel Files Q3 2026 Form 6-K, Details Risks Around Proposed Axalta Deal

Oct 21, 2026

Akzo Nobel N.V. has filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission dated October 21, 2026, furnishing its Q3 2026 report as Exhibit 99.1. The filing confirms that AkzoNobel continues to report as a foreign private issuer under Form...

AkzoNobel Posts Q3 Margin Gains and Strikes $1.35bn Southeast Asia Paints Sale

Oct 21, 2026

AkzoNobel reported its third-quarter 2026 results on October 21, showing 2% organic sales growth driven by pricing, with reported revenue essentially flat year-on-year at €2.54 billion. Organic adjusted EBITDA rose €15 million, lifting th...

AkzoNobel Sets November 30 EGM to Advance Merger with Axalta

Oct 16, 2026

On October 16, 2026, AkzoNobel reported to the U.S. SEC that it will convene an Extraordinary General Meeting on November 30, 2026, to advance its planned all-share merger of equals with Axalta Coating Systems. Shareholders will be asked to approve c...

AkzoNobel and Axalta Unveil Axanzo Name for Planned Merger

Oct 15, 2026

On October 15, 2026, AkzoNobel and Axalta Coating Systems announced that their merged entity will be called Axanzo, with a planned ticker symbol of AXZ on the NYSE and Euronext Amsterdam once the transaction closes. The name is intended to signal a &...

AkzoNobel Divests South East Asia Decorative Paints Unit to Nippon Paint for $1.35 Billion

Oct 5, 2026

On October 5, 2026, AkzoNobel announced binding agreements to sell its Decorative Paints business in seven South East Asia and Pacific markets to Nippon Paint for an enterprise value of about $1.35 billion. The divested operations span Vietnam, Indon...

AkzoNobel and Axalta Finalize Board Line‑Up for Pending Merger

Aug 31, 2026

On August 31, 2026, AkzoNobel and Axalta announced that industry executives Stephan B. Tanda, Denise C. Johnson and investment specialist Robert Schuchna have agreed to serve as non‑executive directors on the Board of their planned merged compa...

AkzoNobel Shareholders Clear Path for Merger with Axalta

Aug 7, 2026

On August 5, 2026, AkzoNobel shareholders approved all resolutions at an Extraordinary General Meeting supporting an all-share merger with Axalta Coating Systems. The vote covers the merger itself, changes to AkzoNobel’s Articles of Association...

AkzoNobel and Axalta Tighten Governance Terms Ahead of August Merger Votes

Jul 23, 2026

AkzoNobel and Axalta, which are pursuing an all-share merger of equals, announced on July 23, 2026 that they will strengthen governance for the future combined company following extensive dialogue with shareholders and other stakeholders. The adjustm...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 23, 2026