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Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)
NYSE:AJG
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Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG) AI Stock Analysis

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AJG

Arthur J Gallagher & Co

(NYSE:AJG)

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Neutral 69 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$287.00
▲(18.12% Upside)
Arthur J Gallagher & Co's strong financial performance and positive earnings call are significant strengths, highlighting robust revenue growth and strategic M&A success. However, the stock's high valuation and bearish technical indicators present notable risks, suggesting caution for potential investors.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth, driven by both organic expansion and acquisitions, indicates strong market demand and effective business strategies.
Successful M&A Strategy
A robust M&A strategy enhances market position and expands revenue streams, contributing to long-term growth and competitive advantage.
Strong Profitability Margins
High profitability margins reflect efficient operations and cost management, supporting sustainable financial health and shareholder value.
Negative Factors
Decline in Cash Flow Generation
A decline in cash flow generation can limit investment capabilities and financial flexibility, potentially impacting long-term growth initiatives.
Challenges in Property Market
Decreased property renewal premiums may affect revenue stability in this segment, posing a risk to overall revenue growth and diversification.
Impact of Revenue Seasonality
Revenue seasonality can lead to earnings volatility, complicating financial forecasting and potentially affecting investor confidence.

Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Arthur J Gallagher & Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionArthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG) is a global insurance brokerage and risk management services firm headquartered in Itasca, Illinois. Established in 1927, AJG operates in various sectors, including commercial insurance, employee benefits, and personal insurance. The company offers a wide range of services such as risk management consulting, insurance brokerage, and underwriting, serving clients from small businesses to large corporations across diverse industries.
How the Company Makes MoneyAJG generates revenue primarily through commissions and fees earned from its insurance brokerage services, where it acts as an intermediary between clients and insurance carriers. The company charges clients for consulting services related to risk management and employee benefits, providing tailored solutions to meet their specific needs. Key revenue streams include the brokerage of property and casualty insurance, employee benefits consulting, and risk management services. AJG also earns income from the sale of insurance products and services, as well as from its global network of partnerships with various insurance providers, enhancing its service offerings and market reach. Additionally, AJG's growth strategy includes acquisitions of smaller agencies, which expands its client base and revenue potential.

Arthur J Gallagher & Co Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
EBITDAC
EBITDAC
Focuses on earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and change in control, offering a clear view of operational profitability and cash flow potential.
Chart InsightsArthur J. Gallagher & Co's EBITDAC for both Brokerage and Risk Management segments shows consistent growth, with the Brokerage segment achieving a notable increase in recent quarters. The latest earnings call highlights a 17% revenue growth in Brokerage and 9% in Risk Management, supported by strong M&A activity. Despite challenges in the property insurance market, the company maintains a positive outlook, expecting continued organic growth. The pending Assured Partners acquisition could further enhance their market position, though regulatory approval remains a hurdle.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Arthur J Gallagher & Co Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 30, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong performance with significant revenue growth and successful integration of AssuredPartners despite some challenges in the property market and impacts from revenue seasonality. The company's strategic initiatives in organic growth, M&A, and the Risk Management segment continue to drive positive results.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
The company delivered revenue growth of 20% with organic growth of 4.8% and adjusted EBITDAC growth of 22%. This marks the 19th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.
Successful Integration of AssuredPartners
The integration of AssuredPartners is off to a great start, contributing to a revenue increase and showing strong synergy potential.
Brokerage Segment Performance
Reported revenue growth in the Brokerage segment was 22%, with organic growth at 4.5%. The segment showed underlying margin expansion of 60 basis points.
Risk Management Segment Growth
Gallagher Bassett achieved third quarter revenue growth of 8%, with organic growth of 6.7%, driven by strong new business revenue and excellent client retention.
Mergers and Acquisitions Success
The company completed 5 new mergers, representing around $40 million of estimated annualized revenue, bringing year-to-date estimated annualized acquired revenue to over $3.4 billion.
Negative Updates
Challenges in the Property Market
Property renewal premiums decreased by 5%, though this was partly offset by increases in casualty lines.
Impact of Revenue Seasonality on EPS
GAAP EPS was $1.76 and adjusted EPS was $2.87. EPS would have been $0.22 higher without the intra-quarter revenue seasonality related to AssuredPartners.
Pressure on Contingents and Life Insurance Cases
There was pressure on contingents and some large life insurance cases shifted out of the third quarter, impacting the Brokerage segment's organic growth.
Company Guidance
During the third quarter of 2025, Arthur J. Gallagher & Company experienced robust financial performance, highlighted by a remarkable revenue growth of 20%, driven by a dual strategy of organic growth and mergers and acquisitions (M&A). The company reported an organic growth rate of 4.8% and a 22% increase in adjusted EBITDAC, with adjusted EBITDAC margins expanding by 26 basis points, reflecting the benefits of scale and a continued focus on productivity. The company's EPS for its combined Brokerage and Risk Management segments was $1.76 on a GAAP basis and $2.87 on an adjusted basis. Within the Brokerage segment, reported revenue growth was 22%, with organic growth at 4.5%, while the Risk Management segment, Gallagher Bassett, posted an 8% growth in revenue, including an organic growth of 6.7%. The firm's strategic acquisition of AssuredPartners, closed on August 18, influenced intra-quarter revenue seasonality, impacting the reported figures. Looking ahead, the company anticipates maintaining strong organic growth with a fourth-quarter forecast of around 5% for the Brokerage segment and about 7% for the Risk Management segment.

Arthur J Gallagher & Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Arthur J Gallagher & Co exhibits strong financial health with consistent revenue growth and solid profitability margins. The balance sheet is robust with low leverage and stable returns on equity. While cash flow generation has seen some decline, the company maintains a strong cash conversion ratio, indicating resilience.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Arthur J Gallagher & Co has demonstrated consistent revenue growth with a 3.7% increase in TTM, following a strong 14.7% growth in the previous year. The company maintains healthy profitability with a gross profit margin of 55.18% and a net profit margin of 13.16% in TTM. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also robust at 20.97% and 28.25%, respectively, indicating efficient operations and cost management.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company's balance sheet shows a strong equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.67 in the latest annual report, improving to 0.05 in TTM, reflecting reduced leverage. Return on equity is stable at 8.45% in TTM, suggesting effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio stands at 28.73%, indicating a solid capital structure.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals a decline in free cash flow growth by 21.91% in TTM, which is a concern. However, the company maintains a strong free cash flow to net income ratio of 93.02%, indicating good cash conversion. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is lower at 4.98%, suggesting potential areas for improvement in cash generation from operations.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue12.47B11.55B10.07B8.55B8.21B7.01B
Gross Profit5.44B4.88B4.25B3.60B2.98B2.51B
EBITDA3.50B3.10B2.18B2.18B1.77B1.63B
Net Income1.64B1.46B969.50M1.11B906.80M818.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets80.12B64.26B51.62B38.36B33.34B22.33B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments14.30B14.99B971.50M738.40M402.60M664.60M
Total Debt13.30B13.49B8.32B6.42B6.59B4.87B
Total Liabilities57.07B44.08B40.80B29.17B24.78B16.10B
Stockholders Equity23.02B20.18B10.78B9.14B8.51B6.19B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.97B2.44B1.84B1.21B1.58B1.65B
Operating Cash Flow2.12B2.58B2.03B1.39B1.70B1.75B
Investing Cash Flow-2.71B-1.59B-3.29B-1.00B-3.43B-416.80M
Financing Cash Flow14.43B13.05B2.87B212.60M2.68B-505.10M

Arthur J Gallagher & Co Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price242.98
Price Trends
50DMA
293.43
Negative
100DMA
299.67
Negative
200DMA
312.64
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-12.25
Positive
RSI
15.60
Positive
STOCH
9.43
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AJG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 242.98 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 282.34, below the 50-day MA of 293.43, and below the 200-day MA of 312.64, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -12.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 15.60 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.43 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AJG.

Arthur J Gallagher & Co Risk Analysis

Arthur J Gallagher & Co disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Arthur J Gallagher & Co reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Arthur J Gallagher & Co Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
$27.22B23.9310.47%0.68%17.87%-9.35%
$86.78B21.2528.62%1.93%10.57%2.57%
$13.29B23.2030.44%1.87%9.64%15.87%
$62.30B38.709.05%0.97%17.17%19.12%
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
$73.04B27.2238.33%0.86%14.06%5.52%
$29.98B14.9427.79%1.16%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AJG
Arthur J Gallagher & Co
242.98
-36.41
-13.03%
AON
Aon
339.84
-22.81
-6.29%
BRO
Brown & Brown
77.82
-27.02
-25.77%
ERIE
Erie Indemnity Company
285.35
-111.11
-28.03%
MMC
Marsh & Mclennan Companies
177.13
-40.55
-18.63%
WTW
Willis Towers Watson
314.00
14.57
4.87%

Arthur J Gallagher & Co Corporate Events

Arthur J. Gallagher Reports Strong Q3 2025 Growth
Oct 31, 2025

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., a global insurance brokerage and risk management firm, has reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, showcasing continued growth and strategic advancements. The company, headquartered in Rolling Meadows, Illinois, operates in approximately 130 countries, providing a wide range of services through its network of brokers and consultants.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Arthur J. Gallagher Reports Q3 2025 Revenue Growth
Positive
Oct 30, 2025

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. announced its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, reporting significant growth in brokerage revenues, which increased to $2,922.9 million compared to $2,396.4 million in the same quarter of the previous year. This growth highlights the company’s strong market positioning and effective integration of acquisitions, despite challenges such as workforce and lease terminations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AJG) stock is a Hold with a $290.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arthur J Gallagher & Co stock, see the AJG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
Arthur J. Gallagher Plans Investor Meeting for 2025
Neutral
Sep 18, 2025

On September 4, 2025, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. announced plans to host an investor meeting on September 18, 2024, with a webcast and presentation materials available online. The meeting will include a CFO Commentary with estimates for 2025 results, including the integration of AssuredPartners, Inc., and net after-tax cash flows from clean energy investments, highlighting the company’s strategic focus and potential impact on its operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AJG) stock is a Buy with a $338.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arthur J Gallagher & Co stock, see the AJG Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Arthur J. Gallagher Completes Acquisition of AssuredPartners
Positive
Aug 18, 2025

On August 18, 2025, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. completed its acquisition of AssuredPartners, a leading U.S. insurance broker. The transaction, valued at $13.8 billion, was financed through previously disclosed equity and debt financing transactions. This acquisition is expected to expand Gallagher’s retail middle-market property/casualty and employee benefits focus across the U.S., deepen capabilities in niche practice groups, and enhance its presence in the U.K. and Ireland. The integration aims to deliver significant value to clients and shareholders, with anticipated double-digit adjusted EPS accretion.

The most recent analyst rating on (AJG) stock is a Buy with a $345.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arthur J Gallagher & Co stock, see the AJG Stock Forecast page.

Arthur J. Gallagher Reports Strong Earnings and Growth
Aug 2, 2025

Arthur J. Gallagher’s recent earnings call presented a generally positive outlook, highlighting strong revenue and margin growth across its segments, alongside robust merger and acquisition (M&A) activity. However, the company did face challenges, particularly in the property insurance market, and expressed uncertainty regarding the completion of the Assured Partners acquisition.

Arthur J. Gallagher Reports Strong Q2 2025 Growth
Aug 1, 2025

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., headquartered in Rolling Meadows, Illinois, is a global insurance brokerage, risk management, and consulting services firm operating in approximately 130 countries. The company is known for its extensive network of correspondent brokers and niche expertise in providing insurance and risk management advice.

Financial Disclosures
Arthur J Gallagher & Co Q2 2025 Revenue Surge
Positive
Jul 31, 2025

On July 31, 2025, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. announced its financial results for the second quarter ending June 30, 2025. The company reported an increase in brokerage revenue to $2,785.6 million from $2,376.3 million in the same quarter of the previous year, reflecting strong operational performance. The results indicate a positive trajectory for the company, potentially enhancing its market position and benefiting stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AJG) stock is a Buy with a $301.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arthur J Gallagher & Co stock, see the AJG Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 31, 2025