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Aon
(NYSE:AON)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$323.00
â–¼(-7.60% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/22/26
The score is driven primarily by strong profitability and solid cash generation, reinforced by a constructive earnings call with reaffirmed guidance and ongoing margin expansion. Offsetting factors are meaningful balance-sheet leverage (amplified by acquisition financing) and weak technicals, with the stock trading below key moving averages and negative momentum. Valuation is reasonable, providing some support.
Positive Factors
Recurring client relationships
Long-term client relationships and recurring insurance and benefits renewals provide a durable revenue foundation. Mid-90s retention, with improvement in commercial risk and reinsurance, supports visibility, lowers reliance on constant customer replacement, and strengthens the value of Aon’s distribution platform.
Negative Factors
Meaningful leverage
A debt-heavy capital structure reduces financial flexibility and makes execution of the USI acquisition more important. Interest expense and leverage constraints can compete with investment and shareholder returns, while the history of negative equity shows that balance-sheet risk can become amplified despite strong operating profits.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring client relationships
Long-term client relationships and recurring insurance and benefits renewals provide a durable revenue foundation. Mid-90s retention, with improvement in commercial risk and reinsurance, supports visibility, lowers reliance on constant customer replacement, and strengthens the value of Aon’s distribution platform.
Read all positive factors
Aon Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes revenue across different business units, highlighting which segments are driving growth and profitability, and where the company might be facing challenges.
Analyzes revenue across different business units, highlighting which segments are driving growth and profitability, and where the company might be facing challenges.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAon (AON) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$58.01B
Dividend Yield1.14%
Average Volume (3M)2.06M
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.0
Beta (1Y)0.38
Revenue Growth4.36%
EPS Growth51.69%
CountryUS
Employees60,000
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Brokers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)18.24
Shares Outstanding212,125,430
10 Day Avg. Volume1,792,896
30 Day Avg. Volume2,056,962
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.56
Price to Book (P/B)8.12
Price to Sales (P/S)4.42
P/FCF Ratio23.59
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.48
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.87
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.86
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.73
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$369.67Price Target Upside5.75% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)18.58
Revenue Forecast (FY)$17.92B
Aon Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Aon plc operates as a professional services firm in the United States, rest of the Americas, the United Kingdom, Ireland, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through Risk Capital and Human Capital segments. T...
How the Company Makes Money
Aon primarily makes money by earning fees and commissions for intermediating and advising on insurance, reinsurance, and human-capital programs. Its major revenue streams include: (1) Commercial Risk Solutions (insurance brokerage and related serv...
Aon Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized consistent, broad-based revenue growth (5% organic), margin expansion (+70 bps to 28.9%), 9% adjusted EPS growth, and strong cash generation ($483M FCF) supported by Aon United and ABS investments and significant technology/AI initiatives. Management reaffirmed full-year guidance (mid-single-digit+ organic growth, 70–80 bps margin expansion, strong earnings, and double-digit free cash flow growth). Headwinds include lower fiduciary investment income, a higher Q2 tax rate, persistent rate pressure in P&C/reinsurance (treaty rates down ~15–20%), timing-related softness in M&A services, and intense competition for producer hires. Overall, positive operational and financial momentum materially outweighs the manageable challenges highlighted on the call.Positive Updates
Organic Revenue Growth
Organic revenue growth was 5% in Q2 2026 and across all four solution lines, in line with mid-single-digit or greater guidance; total revenue was $4.2 billion, up 2% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Fiduciary Investment Income Decline
Fiduciary investment income was $58 million in Q2, down 12% year-over-year as higher average balances were more than offset by lower interest rates.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Organic Revenue Growth
Organic revenue growth was 5% in Q2 2026 and across all four solution lines, in line with mid-single-digit or greater guidance; total revenue was $4.2 billion, up 2% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Aon reaffirmed 2026 guidance, targeting full‑year organic revenue growth of mid‑single‑digit or greater, 70–80 bps of adjusted operating margin expansion, strong adjusted EPS growth and double‑digit free cash flow growth; in Q2 it delivered 5% organic growth, $4.2B total revenue (+2% YoY), $1.2B adjusted operating income (+5%), a 28.9% adjusted operating margin (+70 bps), $3.81 adjusted EPS (+9%), and $483M free cash flow (FCF +4% YTD) despite a $267M tax impact from NFP wealth proceeds and fiduciary investment income of $58M (-12%). Management said new business contributed ~10 points and net new business 5 points to Q2 organic growth, retention stayed in the mid‑90s with commercial risk +40 bps and reinsurance +20 bps, revenue‑generating headcount is +3% YTD with a plan to grow 4–8% (2024/25 cohorts added ~100 bps), announced transactions are +60%, reinsurance grew 5% despite treaty rates ~15–20% lower and historically ~75% of annual treaty revenue recognized in H1, data center program capacity was increased to $5B, >$350M of tuck‑in capital was deployed YTD, Q2 restructuring savings were $25M (target $100M in 2026 and $450M by 2027), $775M of capital was returned in Q2 including $600M of repurchases (exceeding the $1B+ repurchase objective YTD), Q2 interest expense was $179M (Q3 est. ~$185M) and the full‑year tax rate is expected to be 19.5–20.5%.Aon Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 17.58B | 17.18B | 15.70B | 13.38B | 12.48B | 12.19B |
| Gross Profit | 14.61B | 8.20B | 7.42B | 6.47B | 6.00B | 5.46B |
| EBITDA | 6.73B | 5.35B | 4.94B | 3.91B | 3.83B | 2.58B |
| Net Income | 3.91B | 3.69B | 2.65B | 2.56B | 2.59B | 1.25B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 53.35B | 50.78B | 48.97B | 33.96B | 32.70B | 31.93B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.27B | 2.80B | 11.62B | 1.15B | 1.14B | 836.00M |
| Total Debt | 15.87B | 16.53B | 17.89B | 12.03B | 11.68B | 10.42B |
| Total Liabilities | 43.64B | 41.24B | 42.53B | 34.70B | 33.13B | 30.77B |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.66B | 9.35B | 6.12B | -826.00M | -529.00M | 1.06B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.25B | 3.22B | 2.82B | 3.18B | 3.02B | 2.04B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.53B | 3.48B | 3.04B | 3.44B | 3.22B | 2.18B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.50B | 286.00M | -2.83B | -188.00M | -449.00M | 49.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.13B | -4.21B | 796.00M | -2.87B | -1.79B | -1.92B |
Aon Technical Analysis
Negative
349.56
Price Trends
319.37
Negative
329.23
Negative
328.78
Negative
Market Momentum
-13.39
Negative
33.93
Neutral
54.84
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AON, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 349.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 282.92, above the 50-day MA of 319.37, and above the 200-day MA of 328.78, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -13.39 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 33.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AON.
Aon Risk Analysis
Aon disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Aon reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Aon Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $83.87B | 21.41 | 26.53% | 2.15% | 8.47% | -2.13% | |
79 Outperform | $21.04B | 17.37 | 9.62% | 1.05% | 34.22% | 3.21% | |
78 Outperform | $3.90B | 34.29 | 29.93% | ― | 7.09% | 14.95% | |
77 Outperform | $27.51B | 18.16 | 19.95% | 1.28% | 3.00% | 914.66% | |
76 Outperform | $59.64B | 38.15 | 6.67% | 1.18% | 26.74% | -9.60% | |
72 Outperform | $58.01B | 14.99 | 42.56% | 1.14% | 4.36% | 51.69% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
AON
Aon
274.78
-75.33
-21.52%
AJG
Arthur J Gallagher & Co
233.92
-60.61
-20.58%
BRO
Brown & Brown
63.65
-29.92
-31.98%
CRVL
CorVel
77.92
6.51
9.12%
MRSH
Marsh & McLennan Companies
176.54
-24.42
-12.15%
WTW
Willis Towers Watson
298.43
-33.83
-10.18%
Aon Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Aon Expands Credit Facilities to Finance USI Acquisition
Positive
Sep 22, 2026
On September 18, 2026, Aon and key subsidiaries entered into a $4 billion unsecured delayed‑draw term loan credit agreement with Citibank and a syndicate of lenders, providing two‑year and three‑year facilities to finance the pre...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Aon raises $13.75 billion to support USI acquisition
Positive
Sep 17, 2026
On September 14, 2026, Aon North America, Inc. and Aon Global Holdings plc entered into an underwriting agreement for a multi-tranche senior notes offering totaling $13.75 billion, fully and unconditionally guaranteed on a senior unsecured basis b...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Aon Advances North American Reach with USI Merger
Positive
Sep 11, 2026
On August 30, 2026, Aon entered into a merger agreement under which its subsidiary Cortlandt Acquisition Corp. was combined with USI Advantage Corp., leaving USI Advantage as a direct, wholly owned subsidiary of Aon North America, Inc. The deal fu...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Aon to Acquire USI Insurance in Major Expansion
Positive
Aug 31, 2026
On August 30, 2026, Aon agreed to acquire USI Insurance Services for $17 billion in cash, a deal that was announced publicly on August 31, 2026 and is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2026, subject to regulatory approval and other custom...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Aon Names Nadin Virani Interim Chief Financial Officer
Positive
Aug 17, 2026
On August 17, 2026, Aon plc announced that Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Edmund Reese stepped down from his CFO role and began serving as a senior advisor to the company, a capacity in which he will remain until August 16, 2...
Executive/Board ChangesStock BuybackShareholder Meetings
Aon Extends CEO Assignment and Expands Share Buybacks
Positive
Jul 1, 2026
On June 26, 2026, Aon Corporation amended the international assignment letter with chief executive Gregory C. Case, extending its term from a June 30, 2026 expiry to June 30, 2027, signaling continuity in its top leadership’s international r...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.