Adecoagro SA (AGRO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $754.95M
• Dividend Yield: 4.62%
• Average Volume (3M): 444.55K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.1
• Beta (1Y): -0.04
• Revenue Growth: 19.45%
• EPS Growth: -82.38%
• Country: US
• Employees: 8,896
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Agricultural Farm Products
• EPS (TTM): -0.17
• Shares Outstanding: 99,993,160
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 448,828
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 444,546
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.67
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.30
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.46
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.41
• 1Y Price Target: $8.67
• Price Target Upside: 12.89% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: $9.00 ▲(17.19% Upside)

Adecoagro SA's overall stock score reflects a stable but challenged financial performance, with significant concerns about revenue growth and cash flow generation. Technical indicators suggest a lack of upward momentum, and the valuation appears high relative to peers. The earnings call highlighted both innovative initiatives and significant operational challenges, particularly in the Sugar, Ethanol, and Energy segment.

Positive Factors

Business Model Diversification

The company's diversified business model across multiple agricultural sectors provides resilience against sector-specific downturns, supporting long-term stability.

Innovative Initiatives

Exploring Bitcoin mining using energy production indicates strategic innovation, potentially opening new revenue streams and enhancing future growth prospects.

Debt Management

Successful debt management by extending debt maturity improves financial flexibility and reduces refinancing risk, supporting long-term financial health.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue Growth

A significant drop in revenue growth poses a risk to future earnings potential and market competitiveness, necessitating strategic adjustments to regain momentum.

Cash Flow Challenges

Declining free cash flow growth limits the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities and manage financial obligations, impacting long-term liquidity.

Operational Challenges

Operational challenges in key segments due to weather impacts and slower milling pace can hinder production efficiency and profitability, affecting future performance.

Adecoagro SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Adecoagro S.A. operates as an agro-industrial company in South America. It engages in farming crops and other agricultural products, dairy operations, and land transformation activities, as well as sugar, ethanol, and energy production activities. The company is involved in the planting, harvesting, and sale of grains and oilseeds, as well as wheat, corn, soybeans, peanuts, cotton, sunflowers, and others; provision of grain warehousing/conditioning, handling, and drying services to third parties; and purchase and sale of crops produced by third parties. It also plants, harvests, processes, and markets rice; and produces and sells raw milk, UHT, cheese, powder milk, and others. In addition, the company engages in the cultivating, processing, and transforming of sugarcane into ethanol and sugar; and the sale of electricity cogenerated at its sugar and ethanol mills to the grid. Further, it is involved in the identification and acquisition of underdeveloped and undermanaged farmland, and the realization of value through the strategic disposition of assets. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned a total of 219,850 hectares of land, including 18 farms in Argentina, 8 farms in Brazil, and 1 farm in Uruguay, as well as a total of 241 megawatts of installed cogeneration capacity. Adecoagro S.A. was founded in 2002 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg.

How the Company Makes Money

Adecoagro generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from the sale of agricultural commodities such as soybeans, corn, and wheat, as well as from dairy products and sugar. The company capitalizes on its extensive land holdings and advanced agricultural practices to maximize crop yields and ensure high-quality production. Additionally, Adecoagro profits from its renewable energy segment by producing and selling electricity generated from biomass and sugarcane. Key partnerships with distributors and retailers enhance its market reach, while investments in technology and sustainable farming practices contribute to operational efficiency and cost savings, further boosting its earnings.

Adecoagro SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Adecoagro SA's financial performance is mixed. The income statement shows profitability despite a significant drop in revenue growth. The balance sheet is stable with manageable leverage, but the cash flow statement highlights concerns with declining free cash flow growth. The company needs to address revenue growth and cash flow generation to strengthen its financial position further.

Income Statement

Adecoagro SA's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data indicates a decline in revenue growth rate by 90.2%, which is concerning. However, the company maintains a positive net profit margin of 2.29% and a gross profit margin of 17.39%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also positive at 7.40% and 23.99%, respectively, indicating operational efficiency. Despite the recent revenue decline, the company has shown resilience in maintaining profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.92 in the TTM period, showing a decrease from previous years, which indicates improved leverage management. The return on equity (ROE) is modest at 2.56%, suggesting room for improvement in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 41.85%, indicating a solid equity base relative to total assets. Overall, the balance sheet suggests a stable but not overly aggressive financial strategy.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals challenges in cash generation. The free cash flow growth rate has declined by 20.64% in the TTM period, which is a concern. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.61, indicating adequate cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.23, suggesting limited free cash flow relative to net earnings. While the company generates positive cash flow, the declining growth rate poses a risk to future liquidity.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.55B	1.52B	1.30B	1.35B	1.12B	817.76M
Gross Profit	270.07M	361.51M	415.39M	465.63M	484.25M	335.55M
EBITDA	372.75M	426.38M	561.06M	397.65M	453.24M	245.45M
Net Income	35.60M	92.34M	226.29M	108.14M	130.67M	1.07M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.28B	3.11B	3.16B	3.11B	2.58B	2.48B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	205.67M	211.24M	339.78M	230.65M	199.77M	336.28M
Total Debt	1.27B	1.12B	1.28B	1.35B	1.06B	1.17B
Total Liabilities	1.87B	1.71B	1.90B	1.95B	1.53B	1.52B
Stockholders Equity	1.37B	1.37B	1.23B	1.13B	1.01B	925.04M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	75.03M	65.00M	191.48M	139.80M	135.66M	80.14M
Operating Cash Flow	323.57M	328.33M	434.91M	370.03M	348.66M	257.13M
Investing Cash Flow	-211.19M	-231.56M	-111.55M	-299.26M	-175.22M	-121.92M
Financing Cash Flow	-119.46M	-274.00M	-208.74M	-23.57M	-303.13M	-53.92M

Adecoagro SA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 7.68
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGRO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.68 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.92, below the 50-day MA of 8.34, and below the 200-day MA of 9.49, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AGRO.

Adecoagro SA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FDP	72 Outperform	$1.60B	10.70	7.49%	3.44%	1.41%	―
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
DOLE	62 Neutral	$1.22B	51.62	8.29%	2.56%	4.75%	-88.74%
LMNR	62 Neutral	$263.14M	36.96	-4.88%	2.06%	-14.97%	-278.36%
AGRO	59 Neutral	$754.95M	21.12	2.63%	4.62%	19.45%	-82.38%
VFF	59 Neutral	$372.85M	36.29	-2.13%	―	-3.53%	―
LND	56 Neutral	$366.81M	15.24	6.28%	6.85%	0.32%	-42.97%

Adecoagro SA Corporate Events

Adecoagro to Acquire Nutrien’s Stake in Profertil for $600 Million

On September 8, 2025, Adecoagro S.A. announced its agreement to acquire Nutrien Ltd.’s 50% stake in Profertil S.A., South America’s largest granular urea producer. This acquisition, executed through a partnership with Asociación de Cooperativas Argentinas, is valued at approximately $600 million and is expected to close by the end of 2025. The transaction is seen as a strategic move to diversify Adecoagro’s operations and reduce volatility, aligning with its philosophy of being a low-cost producer. Profertil, known for its cost-efficient production and strategic location in Argentina, supplies 60% of the country’s urea consumption and has consistently generated strong financial performance. The acquisition is anticipated to enhance Adecoagro’s agro-industrial platform and strengthen its market position.

Adecoagro Reports Significant EBITDA Decline Amid Market Challenges

Adecoagro S.A. announced its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2025, revealing a significant decline in adjusted EBITDA by 60.5% compared to the previous year, attributed to lower global prices impacting its business segments. Despite a slight decrease in gross sales by 1.4%, the company managed to increase its gross sales for the six-month period by 9.9%. The results indicate challenges in maintaining profitability amidst fluctuating market conditions, impacting stakeholders and potentially influencing future strategic adjustments.

Adecoagro Announces Results of Cash Tender Offer for 2027 Notes

On July 24, 2025, Adecoagro S.A. announced the expiration and results of its cash tender offer for its 6.000% Notes due 2027. Approximately 36.31% of the principal amount of the Notes was validly tendered and accepted for purchase. The settlement date is expected to occur on July 29, 2025. The company plans to use proceeds from a new notes offering to pay the consideration and accrued interest for the tendered Notes, with the possibility of using remaining proceeds to redeem or purchase any outstanding Notes.

Adecoagro S.A. Announces $500 Million Senior Notes Offering

On July 23, 2025, Adecoagro S.A. announced the pricing of a $500 million offering of 7.500% Senior Notes due 2032. The proceeds will be used to fund a tender offer for its 6.000% Notes due 2027 and for general corporate purposes. This move is expected to enhance the company’s financial flexibility and support its ongoing operations and strategic initiatives.

Adecoagro S.A. Announces Tender Offer for 2027 Notes

On July 18, 2025, Adecoagro S.A. announced a cash tender offer for its outstanding 6.000% Notes due 2027, with the offer set to expire on July 24, 2025. The company aims to repurchase these notes using proceeds from a concurrent offering of new senior notes, indicating a strategic move to manage its debt obligations and potentially improve its financial structure.

Adecoagro Reports Q1 2025 Financial Results Amid Yield and Price Fluctuations

Adecoagro S.A. reported its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2025, showing a revenue increase to $325.5 million from $261.8 million in the same period of 2024, although profits decreased to $18.7 million from $47.3 million. The company experienced a decline in Adjusted EBITDA to $35.9 million from $90.1 million, influenced by adverse weather conditions impacting yields and fluctuations in commodity prices. Despite these challenges, Adecoagro continues to leverage advanced technology to mitigate production cost fluctuations and maintain efficiency.