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Atlas Energy Solutions
(NYSE:AESI)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$11.00
▼(-8.03% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/04/26
The score is held back primarily by weakening profitability and materially negative free cash flow, despite low current leverage and strong top-line growth. Technicals also point to a sustained downtrend. Offsetting factors include a very high dividend yield and a more optimistic earnings-call outlook driven by the behind-the-meter power pipeline, though near-term EBITDA guidance and timing/capex risks limit the upside.
Positive Factors
Strong revenue growth
Sustained top-line expansion (+42.3% TTM) demonstrates durable demand for proppant and logistics in the Permian, supporting scale economics, better fixed-cost absorption and bargaining leverage with customers; this underpins long-term ability to invest in growth initiatives and infrastructure.
Negative Factors
Deeply negative free cash flow
A large negative TTM free cash flow (≈-$184M) indicates capital spending outpaces operating cash generation, increasing reliance on external financing or equity issuance to fund growth. Over several quarters this can erode liquidity, constrain strategic optionality and pressure dividend or investment plans.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong revenue growth
Sustained top-line expansion (+42.3% TTM) demonstrates durable demand for proppant and logistics in the Permian, supporting scale economics, better fixed-cost absorption and bargaining leverage with customers; this underpins long-term ability to invest in growth initiatives and infrastructure.
Read all positive factors
Atlas Energy Solutions Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.35B
Dividend Yield9.18%
Average Volume (3M)2.66M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.18
Revenue Growth-8.41%
EPS Growth-356.38%
CountryUS
Employees1,511
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Equipment & Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.95
Shares Outstanding124,905,590
10 Day Avg. Volume2,821,855
30 Day Avg. Volume2,662,986
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.13
Price to Book (P/B)0.95
Price to Sales (P/S)1.05
P/FCF Ratio-37.29
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$17.00Price Target Upside42.14% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.76
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.13B
Atlas Energy Solutions Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI), an Austin, Texas-based enterprise established in 2017, offers crucial proppant and supply chain management solutions. The company's core focus is serving the oil and natural gas industry across the expansive Per...
How the Company Makes Money
AESI primarily makes money by selling proppant (frac sand) and charging for services associated with getting that proppant to customers’ wellsites. Its core revenue stream is the sale of frac sand to upstream oil and gas operators and completion s...
Atlas Energy Solutions Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 03, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a constructive long-term growth story driven by a transformational behind-the-meter power pipeline (including a 120 MW PPA with strong economics), record logistics execution, and progress on automation, supported by adequate near-term liquidity and disciplined capital guidance. Near-term risks include sand volume variability, a deliberate strategy to trade volume for price that introduces Q3 EBITDA uncertainty, trucking cost inflation and competitor-driven market dislocations, and timing of cash generation from large power projects (material cash flows anticipated in 2027). Overall, the strategic positives around private power scale, strong project economics, operational records, and a plan to capture pricing recovery outweigh the near-term operational and timing challenges.Positive Updates
Quarterly Financials: Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA
Q2 revenue of $293.2 million and adjusted EBITDA of $49.5 million, representing an EBITDA margin of approximately 17%.
Negative Updates
Near-Term Sand Volume Shortfall and Q3 Uncertainty
Q2 sand volumes of ~5.6 million tons were below company expectations due to late-June rig moves and completion schedule changes. Q3 volume guidance is wide (5.3M–6.0M tons) and management is intentionally accepting near-term volume reductions to press for higher pricing, introducing short-term revenue/EBITDA variability.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Financials: Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA
Q2 revenue of $293.2 million and adjusted EBITDA of $49.5 million, representing an EBITDA margin of approximately 17%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Atlas reiterated near‑term financial and operational targets, guiding Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $30–45 million and saying Q4 should show meaningful sequential improvement (expected to match or exceed Q2 results) after reporting Q2 revenue of $293.2 million and adjusted EBITDA of $49.5 million (~17% margin). Sand and logistics volume expectations for Q3 are ~5.3–6.0 million tons (Q2 was 5.6M; July ≈2.0M), with Q2 average proppant price $17.70/ton and proppant plant operating cost ≈$12.39/ton; Q2 logistics margins were 14% and Q3 margins are expected to remain solidly in the double digits. CapEx remains inside full‑year 2026 guidance of $350–375 million (H2 budget ≈$200M; Q2 growth CapEx $131.5M and maintenance $14.6M), with roughly $175–190M of H2 spend tied to private grid power (≈$110M of that for the contracted Socorro build‑out); sand/logistics maintenance CapEx is expected to average $5–7.5M/quarter in H2. On Power, Atlas expects to exit the year with 180–200 MW of oilfield power deployed, has an additional 120 MW arriving at year‑end plus 350 MW scheduled for 2027 (≈470 MW available), and highlighted a 120‑MW Socorro PPA (total project cap ~ $190M) that is expected to generate ~ $55M of adjusted free cash flow annually with a cash‑on‑cash payback under 3.5 years (facility electrifies end‑Q1 2027; revenue recognition begins Q2 ’27); liquidity stands at roughly $168M cash and ~$125M undrawn ABL.Atlas Energy Solutions Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
33
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.07B | 1.10B | 1.06B | 613.96M | 482.72M | 172.40M |
| Gross Profit | 44.40M | 150.67M | 232.01M | 313.77M | 256.31M | 64.07M |
| EBITDA | 120.23M | 178.82M | 228.95M | 307.19M | 263.24M | 71.89M |
| Net Income | -118.33M | -50.30M | 59.94M | 159.99M | 217.01M | 4.26M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.56B | 2.23B | 1.97B | 1.26B | 751.00M | 543.85M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 168.22M | 40.63M | 71.70M | 210.17M | 82.01M | 40.40M |
| Total Debt | 966.72M | 578.92M | 530.10M | 177.99M | 147.17M | 175.58M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.44B | 1.02B | 936.10M | 393.86M | 239.64M | 205.15M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.11B | 1.21B | 1.04B | 867.82M | 511.36M | 338.70M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -184.12M | -30.93M | -117.52M | -66.46M | 116.42M | 1.99M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 54.60M | 117.35M | 256.46M | 299.03M | 206.01M | 21.36M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -250.19M | -344.82M | -512.71M | -365.49M | -89.59M | -19.37M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 285.00M | 196.41M | 117.78M | 194.62M | -74.81M | 2.34M |
Atlas Energy Solutions Technical Analysis
Negative
11.96
Price Trends
14.85
Negative
15.12
Negative
12.84
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.27
Positive
34.22
Neutral
38.93
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AESI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.96 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.54, below the 50-day MA of 14.85, and below the 200-day MA of 12.84, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.93 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AESI.
Atlas Energy Solutions Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $851.62M | 28.23 | 28.83% | ― | 24.72% | 72.35% | |
69 Neutral | $1.79B | 88.81 | 1.37% | ― | -7.11% | -70.32% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
59 Neutral | $1.13B | 113.40 | 1.95% | ― | 4.09% | -93.54% | |
56 Neutral | $1.36B | -98.23 | -1.49% | ― | -15.14% | 92.26% | |
52 Neutral | $1.35B | -13.57 | -10.04% | 8.28% | -8.41% | -356.38% | |
50 Neutral | $730.92M | -1.52 | -55.10% | ― | -18.94% | -69.29% |
* Energy Sector Average
AESI
Atlas Energy Solutions
11.07
-0.39
-3.40%
FTK
Flotek
35.42
21.62
156.67%
TTI
Tetra Technologies
8.59
4.67
119.13%
XPRO
Expro Group Holdings
16.99
6.71
65.27%
PUMP
Propetro Holding
10.95
6.13
127.18%
ACDC
ProFrac Holding
4.47
-1.84
-29.24%
Atlas Energy Solutions Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Atlas Energy Solutions Reports Q2 2026 Results and Outlook
Neutral
Aug 3, 2026
Atlas Energy Solutions reported second-quarter 2026 results on August 3, 2026, posting revenue of $293.2 million, a net loss of $25.1 million and adjusted EBITDA of $49.5 million for the period ended June 30, 2026. The company generated adjusted f...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Atlas Energy Shareholders Approve Directors, Auditors and Pay
Positive
May 8, 2026
At its annual meeting of stockholders held on May 7, 2026, Atlas Energy Solutions shareholders elected Gayle Burleson and Robb L. Voyles as Class III directors to serve three-year terms expiring at the 2029 annual meeting. Stockholders also ratifi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.