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Atlas Energy Solutions
(NYSE:AESI)
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Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$11.00
▼(-15.38% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/25/26
The score is held down primarily by weakening financial performance—TTM losses, margin compression, and deeply negative free cash flow—alongside poor technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting factors include constructive earnings-call commentary and recent AI-linked power project progress, plus a modest dividend yield, but these positives are tempered by near-term EBITDA guidance softness and the back-loaded timing of meaningful cash generation.
Positive Factors
Conservative leverage
Very low current leverage gives Atlas greater financial flexibility while it funds expansion and manages cyclical oilfield-services demand. The sizable equity base can help absorb volatility and support investment in power infrastructure without relying entirely on additional borrowing.
Negative Factors
Profitability deterioration
The shift from historically high margins to a TTM net loss and negative EBIT indicates that revenue growth is not currently translating into shareholder profitability. Persistently weak margins could constrain reinvestment, reduce resilience across the cycle, and make the business more dependent on successful operating improvements.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative leverage
Very low current leverage gives Atlas greater financial flexibility while it funds expansion and manages cyclical oilfield-services demand. The sizable equity base can help absorb volatility and support investment in power infrastructure without relying entirely on additional borrowing.
Read all positive factors
Atlas Energy Solutions Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Gross Profit by Segment
Breaks down gross profit across business lines to highlight where the company earns the highest margins, which segments cover fixed costs best, and where pricing or cost pressures could hit profitability first — useful for spotting the true profit drivers behind top‑line growth.
Breaks down gross profit across business lines to highlight where the company earns the highest margins, which segments cover fixed costs best, and where pricing or cost pressures could hit profitability first — useful for spotting the true profit drivers behind top‑line growth.
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The Fly
The FlyAtlas Energy Solutions (AESI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.37B
Dividend Yield2.27%
Average Volume (3M)2.90M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.12
Revenue Growth-8.11%
EPS Growth-822.25%
CountryUS
Employees1,511
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Equipment & Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.95
Shares Outstanding125,003,450
10 Day Avg. Volume2,904,661
30 Day Avg. Volume2,900,771
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.13
Price to Book (P/B)0.95
Price to Sales (P/S)1.05
P/FCF Ratio-37.29
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.33Price Target Upside10.26% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.94
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.12B
Atlas Energy Solutions Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI), an Austin, Texas-based enterprise established in 2017, offers crucial proppant and supply chain management solutions. The company's core focus is serving the oil and natural gas industry across the expansive Per...
How the Company Makes Money
AESI primarily makes money by selling proppant (frac sand) and charging for services associated with getting that proppant to customers’ wellsites. Its core revenue stream is the sale of frac sand to upstream oil and gas operators and completion s...
Atlas Energy Solutions Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 03, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a constructive long-term growth story driven by a transformational behind-the-meter power pipeline (including a 120 MW PPA with strong economics), record logistics execution, and progress on automation, supported by adequate near-term liquidity and disciplined capital guidance. Near-term risks include sand volume variability, a deliberate strategy to trade volume for price that introduces Q3 EBITDA uncertainty, trucking cost inflation and competitor-driven market dislocations, and timing of cash generation from large power projects (material cash flows anticipated in 2027). Overall, the strategic positives around private power scale, strong project economics, operational records, and a plan to capture pricing recovery outweigh the near-term operational and timing challenges.Positive Updates
Quarterly Financials: Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA
Q2 revenue of $293.2 million and adjusted EBITDA of $49.5 million, representing an EBITDA margin of approximately 17%.
Negative Updates
Near-Term Sand Volume Shortfall and Q3 Uncertainty
Q2 sand volumes of ~5.6 million tons were below company expectations due to late-June rig moves and completion schedule changes. Q3 volume guidance is wide (5.3M–6.0M tons) and management is intentionally accepting near-term volume reductions to press for higher pricing, introducing short-term revenue/EBITDA variability.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Financials: Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA
Q2 revenue of $293.2 million and adjusted EBITDA of $49.5 million, representing an EBITDA margin of approximately 17%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Atlas reiterated near‑term financial and operational targets, guiding Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $30–45 million and saying Q4 should show meaningful sequential improvement (expected to match or exceed Q2 results) after reporting Q2 revenue of $293.2 million and adjusted EBITDA of $49.5 million (~17% margin). Sand and logistics volume expectations for Q3 are ~5.3–6.0 million tons (Q2 was 5.6M; July ≈2.0M), with Q2 average proppant price $17.70/ton and proppant plant operating cost ≈$12.39/ton; Q2 logistics margins were 14% and Q3 margins are expected to remain solidly in the double digits. CapEx remains inside full‑year 2026 guidance of $350–375 million (H2 budget ≈$200M; Q2 growth CapEx $131.5M and maintenance $14.6M), with roughly $175–190M of H2 spend tied to private grid power (≈$110M of that for the contracted Socorro build‑out); sand/logistics maintenance CapEx is expected to average $5–7.5M/quarter in H2. On Power, Atlas expects to exit the year with 180–200 MW of oilfield power deployed, has an additional 120 MW arriving at year‑end plus 350 MW scheduled for 2027 (≈470 MW available), and highlighted a 120‑MW Socorro PPA (total project cap ~ $190M) that is expected to generate ~ $55M of adjusted free cash flow annually with a cash‑on‑cash payback under 3.5 years (facility electrifies end‑Q1 2027; revenue recognition begins Q2 ’27); liquidity stands at roughly $168M cash and ~$125M undrawn ABL.Atlas Energy Solutions Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
33
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.07B | 1.10B | 1.06B | 613.96M | 482.72M | 172.40M |
| Gross Profit | 44.40M | 150.67M | 232.01M | 313.77M | 256.31M | 64.07M |
| EBITDA | 110.94M | 178.82M | 228.95M | 307.19M | 263.24M | 71.89M |
| Net Income | -118.33M | -50.30M | 59.94M | 159.99M | 217.01M | 4.26M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.56B | 2.23B | 1.97B | 1.26B | 751.00M | 543.85M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 168.22M | 40.63M | 71.70M | 210.17M | 82.01M | 40.40M |
| Total Debt | 966.72M | 578.92M | 530.10M | 177.99M | 147.17M | 175.58M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.44B | 1.02B | 936.10M | 393.86M | 239.64M | 205.15M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.11B | 1.21B | 1.04B | 867.82M | 511.36M | 338.70M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -184.12M | -30.93M | -117.52M | -66.46M | 116.42M | 1.99M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 54.60M | 117.35M | 256.46M | 299.03M | 206.01M | 21.36M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -250.19M | -344.82M | -512.71M | -365.49M | -89.59M | -19.37M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 285.00M | 196.41M | 117.78M | 194.62M | -74.81M | 2.34M |
Atlas Energy Solutions Technical Analysis
Negative
13.00
Price Trends
12.54
Negative
14.79
Negative
13.32
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.20
Positive
33.66
Neutral
1.96
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AESI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.15, above the 50-day MA of 12.54, and below the 200-day MA of 13.32, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 1.96 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AESI.
Atlas Energy Solutions Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $1.05B | 27.75 | 32.27% | ― | 36.77% | 125.54% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
63 Neutral | $1.88B | 89.87 | 1.37% | 4.67% | -7.11% | -70.32% | |
57 Neutral | $892.88M | 114.72 | 1.95% | 5.64% | 5.70% | -95.02% | |
54 Neutral | $1.17B | -84.87 | -1.49% | ― | -15.14% | 92.26% | |
48 Neutral | $1.37B | -13.13 | -10.04% | 2.27% | -8.11% | -822.25% | |
48 Neutral | $826.84M | -1.88 | -56.47% | ― | -16.18% | -32.58% |
* Energy Sector Average
AESI
Atlas Energy Solutions
12.47
0.57
4.79%
FTK
Flotek
29.53
14.88
101.57%
TTI
Tetra Technologies
6.08
0.19
3.23%
XPRO
Expro Group Holdings
16.33
3.67
28.99%
PUMP
Propetro Holding
9.59
4.07
73.73%
ACDC
ProFrac Holding
4.61
0.84
22.15%
Atlas Energy Solutions Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Atlas Energy backs AI data center power expansion
Positive
Sep 25, 2026
On September 25, 2026, Atlas announced that two wholly owned indirect subsidiaries had signed cost reimbursement agreements with a leading frontier AI lab tied to equipment purchases for specific data center power projects. The arrangements alloca...
Business Operations and Strategy
Atlas Energy Solutions expands AI-linked power infrastructure plans
Positive
Sep 24, 2026
On September 18, 2026, Atlas Energy Solutions’ subsidiary Shackelford 1, LLC agreed to purchase balance-of-plant equipment from Wyoming Machinery Company for a power generation project, with shipments scheduled between June and December 2027...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Atlas Energy Solutions Reports Q2 2026 Results and Outlook
Neutral
Aug 3, 2026
Atlas Energy Solutions reported second-quarter 2026 results on August 3, 2026, posting revenue of $293.2 million, a net loss of $25.1 million and adjusted EBITDA of $49.5 million for the period ended June 30, 2026. The company generated adjusted f...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.