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Archer Daniels Midland
(NYSE:ADM)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$91.00
â–²(15.04% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/05/26
ADM scores as a moderate opportunity: the biggest positive is the earnings call signal—raised full-year EPS guidance backed by strong segment operating profit performance. This is tempered by only mid-level underlying financial quality due to sharply weaker year-over-year cash flow, plus a demanding valuation (high P/E) and a mixed-to-soft near-term technical picture.
Positive Factors
Integrated global agribusiness platform
ADM’s vertically integrated model and global logistics network connect procurement, processing, storage and distribution across multiple end markets. This scale can lower delivered costs, support regional arbitrage and provide a durable competitive foundation beyond any single commodity cycle.
Negative Factors
Weaker cash-flow conversion
The sharp year-over-year decline in operating and free cash flow shows that reported profitability is not converting consistently into cash. Continued volatility could constrain internally funded investment, dividends or buybacks and makes ADM’s earnings quality more dependent on working-capital and cycle conditions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Integrated global agribusiness platform
ADM’s vertically integrated model and global logistics network connect procurement, processing, storage and distribution across multiple end markets. This scale can lower delivered costs, support regional arbitrage and provide a durable competitive foundation beyond any single commodity cycle.
Read all positive factors
Archer Daniels Midland Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue by business segment, revealing which areas are driving sales and where there might be potential for expansion or risk.
Breaks down revenue by business segment, revealing which areas are driving sales and where there might be potential for expansion or risk.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyArcher Daniels Midland (ADM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$38.76B
Dividend Yield2.57%
Average Volume (3M)3.46M
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.0
Beta (1Y)0.14
Revenue Growth-0.79%
EPS Growth60.09%
CountryUS
Employees41,147
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryAgricultural Farm Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.65
Shares Outstanding481,959,600
10 Day Avg. Volume2,953,215
30 Day Avg. Volume3,455,780
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.66
Price to Book (P/B)1.22
Price to Sales (P/S)0.35
P/FCF Ratio6.62
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.06
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.50
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.31
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.72
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$84.75Price Target Upside7.14% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)5.47
Revenue Forecast (FY)$87.34B
Archer Daniels Midland Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) stands as a major global enterprise in the agricultural sector, focused on the sourcing, transportation, storage, processing, and distribution of a wide array of agricultural commodities, finished goods, and es...
How the Company Makes Money
ADM primarily makes money by turning agricultural raw materials into higher-value products and by providing merchandising, logistics, and risk-management services across global supply chains. Key revenue streams include: (1) Origination & Merchand...
Archer Daniels Midland Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly positive: the company delivered a strong quarter with substantial YoY operating profit gains across AS&O and Carbohydrate Solutions, meaningful improvement in Nutrition operating profit, a raised full-year EPS guidance, strong cash generation and sustained balance-sheet strength. Management highlighted concrete growth initiatives (debottlenecking, natural colors TAM capture, precision fermentation pilots), sustainability progress and continued cost-savings execution. Key risks include revenue softness in parts of Nutrition, liquid sweetener weakness, mark-to-market/timing volatility, a decline in Wilmar earnings, geopolitical uncertainties and exposure to Q4 margin volatility given limited coverage. On balance, the operational and financial upside materially outweighs the noted risks and uncertainties.Positive Updates
Strong overall Q2 financial performance
Adjusted EPS of $1.84 for Q2 and total segment operating profit of $1.5 billion; trailing four-quarter adjusted ROIC at 7.8% and cash flow from operations before working capital changes of $1.8 billion for H1 2026.
Negative Updates
Nutrition revenue decline despite profit improvement
Nutrition revenues were $1.9 billion, down 5% YoY (Human Nutrition revenue -4% YoY, prior year included a $55 million contract cancellation benefit; Animal Nutrition revenue -6% YoY due to portfolio actions and Akralos JV).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong overall Q2 financial performance
Adjusted EPS of $1.84 for Q2 and total segment operating profit of $1.5 billion; trailing four-quarter adjusted ROIC at 7.8% and cash flow from operations before working capital changes of $1.8 billion for H1 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ADM raised full‑year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.15–$5.60 (from $4.15–$4.70), citing Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.84 and total segment operating profit of $1.5B, with first‑half adjusted EPS of ~$2.55, trailing four‑quarter adjusted ROIC of 7.8% and cash flow from operations before working capital of ~$1.8B in H1; the raise rests on three pillars—continued execution, a constructive crushing/ethanol margin backdrop, and Nutrition momentum—and management expects more than half of 2026 operating profit in H2 (Q3 potentially > Q4). Guidance assumptions include China continuing to buy against its ~25M‑ton U.S. soybean commitment, realization of reversals to prior net negative mark‑to‑market/timing (Q2 AS&O included ~ $100M net positive MTM impacts and RPO had ~($50M) headwind), and an increased net benefit from 45Z to ~ $250M (from ~$150M). Other planning metrics called out on the call: Q2 AS&O op profit $867M (+129%), Ag Services $293M (+159%), Crushing $363M (+~$330M), Carb Solutions $411M (+22%), Starches & Sweeteners $326M (+7%), Vantage $85M (+$52M), Nutrition revenue $1.9B (−5%) and Nutrition op profit $172M (+51%); 337k metric tons CO2 sequestered in the quarter; H1 CapEx $466M with FY CapEx guide $1.3–$1.5B; dividends $256M (378th consecutive); net leverage 1.6x (target YE ~2x); and aggregated cost‑savings target of $500–$750M over 3–5 years.Archer Daniels Midland Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
64
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 82.10B | 80.27B | 85.53B | 93.94B | 101.56B | 85.25B |
| Gross Profit | 5.64B | 5.03B | 5.78B | 7.51B | 7.57B | 5.99B |
| EBITDA | 3.84B | 3.05B | 4.10B | 6.00B | 6.66B | 4.57B |
| Net Income | 1.77B | 1.08B | 1.80B | 3.48B | 4.34B | 2.71B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 53.53B | 52.39B | 53.27B | 54.63B | 59.77B | 56.14B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.61B | 1.05B | 857.00M | 1.37B | 1.04B | 943.00M |
| Total Debt | 9.34B | 9.76B | 11.54B | 9.60B | 10.29B | 10.58B |
| Total Liabilities | 29.66B | 29.36B | 30.84B | 30.17B | 35.16B | 33.37B |
| Stockholders Equity | 23.58B | 22.73B | 22.17B | 24.13B | 24.28B | 22.48B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.68B | 4.20B | 1.23B | 2.97B | 2.16B | 5.43B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.79B | 5.45B | 2.79B | 4.46B | 3.48B | 6.59B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -999.00M | -1.02B | -2.70B | -1.50B | -1.40B | -2.67B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.26B | -2.89B | -1.53B | -4.60B | -2.50B | -1.12B |
Archer Daniels Midland Technical Analysis
Negative
79.10
Price Trends
81.69
Negative
80.68
Negative
74.43
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.56
Positive
44.59
Neutral
55.29
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 79.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 82.18, below the 50-day MA of 81.69, and above the 200-day MA of 74.43, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.56 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.29 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ADM.
Archer Daniels Midland Risk Analysis
Archer Daniels Midland disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Archer Daniels Midland reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Archer Daniels Midland Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.21B | 12.49 | 14.15% | 1.25% | -5.20% | 120.12% | |
64 Neutral | $38.76B | 22.03 | 7.73% | 2.59% | -0.79% | 60.09% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
59 Neutral | $20.02B | 20.24 | 6.35% | 2.76% | 80.50% | -48.63% | |
57 Neutral | $1.42B | 41.82 | 1.69% | 4.07% | -0.14% | -77.00% | |
56 Neutral | $1.49B | 158.41 | 3.03% | 2.89% | 7.20% | -10.41% | |
53 Neutral | $18.47B | 32.08 | 3.18% | 3.82% | 2.86% | -26.18% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
ADM
Archer Daniels Midland
80.42
20.53
34.28%
AGRO
Adecoagro SA
10.30
2.85
38.31%
BG
Bunge Global
104.22
25.27
32.00%
DMC
Del Monte
30.11
-1.94
-6.04%
ANDE
The Andersons
65.08
23.58
56.82%
TSN
Tyson Foods
53.57
3.24
6.44%
Archer Daniels Midland Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Archer Daniels Midland Announces Planned Board Director Transition
Neutral
Aug 12, 2026
On August 6, 2026, Archer Daniels Midland’s board, acting on a recommendation from its Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee, accepted the resignation of director Lei Z. Schlitz while requesting that she remain on the board through y...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
ADM appoints Jeff Rowe as new chief operating officer
Positive
Jul 23, 2026
ADM, the global agricultural processor and nutrition and bio-based solutions provider, has appointed industry veteran Jeff Rowe to the newly created role of executive vice president and chief operating officer, effective August 17, 2026. Rowe, a f...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.