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Xponential Fitness
(NYSE:XPOF)
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Rating:43Neutral
Price Target:
$4.50
▼(-14.12% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/09/26
XPOF scores low primarily due to weak financial performance (ongoing losses, negative TTM cash flow, and negative equity) and a bearish technical setup (below key moving averages with negative MACD). The latest earnings call further pressured the score as guidance was lowered amid worsening same-store sales and margin pressure, while valuation is difficult to interpret given negative earnings and there is limited offset from the CFO appointment.
Positive Factors
Franchise Scale and Pipeline
The large operating base and contractual development pipeline provide a durable framework for studio expansion and recurring franchise revenue. Continued openings can broaden brand reach and partially offset pressure at existing studios, supporting longer-term system scale.
Negative Factors
Same-Store Sales and Guidance Pressure
Declining same-store sales weaken the performance of existing franchisees and can reduce royalty growth even as new studios open. Management’s lower guidance and assumption of continued second-half pressure indicate that the weakness may persist across several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Franchise Scale and Pipeline
The large operating base and contractual development pipeline provide a durable framework for studio expansion and recurring franchise revenue. Continued openings can broaden brand reach and partially offset pressure at existing studios, supporting longer-term system scale.
Read all positive factors
Xponential Fitness Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Split of revenue across business lines—license fees, royalties, equipment and product sales, corporate-owned studios, and digital services—highlighting which areas drive growth and profitability. Shifts toward higher-margin segments (royalties, digital) improve earnings quality, while concentration in lower-margin sales raises execution and margin risk.
Split of revenue across business lines—license fees, royalties, equipment and product sales, corporate-owned studios, and digital services—highlighting which areas drive growth and profitability. Shifts toward higher-margin segments (royalties, digital) improve earnings quality, while concentration in lower-margin sales raises execution and margin risk.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyXponential Fitness (XPOF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$241.81M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)951.89K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.25
Revenue Growth-8.94%
EPS Growth16.41%
CountryUS
Employees340
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryLeisure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.47
Shares Outstanding42,219,000
10 Day Avg. Volume472,209
30 Day Avg. Volume951,895
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.16
Price to Book (P/B)-1.06
Price to Sales (P/S)0.91
P/FCF Ratio11.58
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.88Price Target Upside12.12% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.29
Revenue Forecast (FY)$256.58M
Xponential Fitness Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Xponential Fitness, Inc. serves as a leading franchisor in the boutique fitness and wellness sector, conducting operations across the United States and internationally through its various subsidiaries. The company offers a wide range of health and...
How the Company Makes Money
Xponential Fitness primarily makes money through franchising its fitness studio brands. Key revenue streams generally include (1) franchise-related fees: upfront fees paid when a franchisee signs a franchise agreement to open a studio under one of...
Xponential Fitness Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call highlighted continued unit growth, a substantial development pipeline, improved member retention, active digital and operational initiatives, and ongoing franchise partnerships. However, material near-term headwinds were emphasized: same-store sales comps deteriorated (-6.8% in Q2), consolidated revenue declined -13% YoY, merchandise execution and revenue recognition changes weighed on results, adjusted EBITDA fell -22%, cash decreased and debt increased, and management lowered full-year guidance. While management has clear plans (digital upgrades, remodels, AI/CRM pilots, strategic partnerships) and regulatory issues are largely resolved, the magnitude and number of operational and financial setbacks communicated on the call indicate that the lowlights outweigh the highlights in the near term.Positive Updates
Net Unit Growth and Scale
Opened 67 gross new studios in Q2 (47 North America, 20 international); net unit growth of +16 domestic and +12 international in Q2; year-to-date net units +39 domestic and +29 international; total open studios 3,165 globally.
Negative Updates
Same-Store Sales Decline
Q2 same-store studio sales declined -6.8% overall and -5.0% for Club Pilates year-over-year; same-store trends remained modestly weaker than Q1 and management modeled continued H2 pressure consistent with H1 (~-6.5%).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Net Unit Growth and Scale
Opened 67 gross new studios in Q2 (47 North America, 20 international); net unit growth of +16 domestic and +12 international in Q2; year-to-date net units +39 domestic and +29 international; total open studios 3,165 globally.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management lowered full‑year 2026 guidance after softer Q2 results (Q2 revenue $66.0M, down $10.2M or 13%; Q2 adjusted EBITDA $21.9M, down $6.2M or 22%; Q2 adjusted EBITDA margin 33% vs. 37% a year ago; Q2 same‑store sales -6.8%), and now expects ~150 global net new studio openings, North America system‑wide sales of $1.70–1.75B, total 2026 revenue of $250–260M, and full‑year adjusted EBITDA of $91–97M (36.9% margin at the midpoint). The company cited continuing merchandise pressure (merchandise revenue down $5.1M, $3.9M of which reflects the outsourced model), an equipment revenue decline of about $2.5M, and is assuming H2 same‑store trends similar to H1; operational metrics include 3,165 open studios, 67 Q2 gross openings (47 NA / 20 international), 39 Q2 closures, YTD net unit growth of 39 domestic and 29 international, cash & restricted cash of $25.0M, total long‑term debt of $522.4M, $6.8M of settlement payments made in Q2 and an expected ~$11.4M more this year.Xponential Fitness Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
26
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 288.47M | 314.88M | 320.35M | 317.94M | 243.20M | 155.08M |
| Gross Profit | 229.23M | 238.10M | 260.87M | 219.32M | 161.01M | 100.77M |
| EBITDA | 5.21M | 8.87M | -35.08M | 70.79M | 45.03M | 12.79M |
| Net Income | -38.80M | -33.79M | -64.95M | -4.00M | 1.22M | -18.83M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 309.84M | 345.63M | 403.40M | 528.70M | 482.69M | 415.54M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 24.99M | 33.67M | 16.68M | 27.76M | 31.99M | 21.32M |
| Total Debt | 519.75M | 524.69M | 379.62M | 406.62M | 170.44M | 131.93M |
| Total Liabilities | 685.94M | 717.59M | 714.21M | 616.83M | 690.75M | 626.01M |
| Stockholders Equity | -321.43M | -269.08M | -216.57M | -10.59M | -154.78M | -654.43M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -8.89M | 24.74M | 6.96M | 23.50M | 35.93M | 9.59M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -5.75M | 28.32M | 11.68M | 32.71M | 52.06M | 14.45M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 3.18M | 1.53M | -14.15M | -11.69M | -14.61M | -50.63M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -11.12M | -16.72M | -1.88M | -21.30M | -21.40M | 46.20M |
Xponential Fitness Technical Analysis
Negative
5.24
Price Trends
6.01
Negative
6.08
Negative
6.65
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.24
Negative
37.09
Neutral
7.11
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XPOF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.11, below the 50-day MA of 6.01, and below the 200-day MA of 6.65, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 37.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.11 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for XPOF.
Xponential Fitness Risk Analysis
Xponential Fitness disclosed 68 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Xponential Fitness reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Xponential Fitness Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $9.66B | 22.59 | 13.14% | ― | 12.69% | 75.05% | |
66 Neutral | $3.84B | 16.91 | -53.58% | 13.89% | 12.70% | 31.61% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
58 Neutral | $2.37B | 35.22 | -20.60% | ― | -1.80% | ― | |
57 Neutral | $41.85M | 3.24 | 39.07% | ― | -32.49% | ― | |
43 Neutral | $241.81M | -3.27 | 15.21% | ― | -8.94% | 16.41% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
XPOF
Xponential Fitness
4.80
-3.43
-41.68%
PLNT
Planet Fitness
49.88
-52.70
-51.37%
PTON
Peloton Interactive
5.04
-2.90
-36.52%
BODI
Beachbody Company
5.70
-0.04
-0.70%
LTH
Life Time Group Holdings
42.47
13.83
48.29%
MMA
Mixed Martial Arts Group
0.45
-1.00
-69.03%
Xponential Fitness Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Xponential Fitness Names Jennifer Ryu as New CFO
Positive
Sep 8, 2026
On September 8, 2026, Xponential Fitness announced the appointment of Jennifer Ryu as Chief Financial Officer, effective October 19, 2026, succeeding interim CFO Robert Julian. Ryu, a seasoned finance executive with more than 25 years of experienc...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.