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Xponential Fitness, Inc. Class A (XPOF)
:XPOF
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Xponential Fitness
(NYSE:XPOF)
50Neutral
Positive Factors
Membership and Studio Visits
The business saw another quarter of membership growth and increased studio visits with each growing 15% and 19%, respectively.
Sales Growth
North American system-wide sales grew 21% to $465M.
Negative Factors
Development Outlook
Disappointing development outlook as closures remain elevated, with anticipated gross openings lower than expected and closures higher than anticipated.
Financial Guidance
Revenue and EBITDA guidance for 2025 came in lower than expected, reflecting the company’s efforts to improve franchisee performance and address legacy issues.
Stock Performance
Shares are indicating down ~30% after hours which is indicative of the weaker guide.
Xponential Fitness (XPOF) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$445.37M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)753.99K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.56
Revenue Growth-3.17%
EPS Growth-194.72%
CountryUS
Employees288
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength74
IndustryLeisure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.20
Shares Outstanding34,926,000
10 Day Avg. Volume1,062,015
30 Day Avg. Volume753,991
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)-2.68
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio59.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.70
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.58
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.13
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.97
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.56Price Target Upside47.71% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
Xponential Fitness Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionXponential Fitness (XPOF) is a leading curator of boutique fitness brands across multiple verticals. The company operates a diverse portfolio of fitness studios offering a variety of specialized fitness experiences including Pilates, cycling, rowing, dance, yoga, running, and more. Xponential Fitness is known for its franchise model, empowering entrepreneurs to own and operate their studios under well-established brand names such as Club Pilates, Pure Barre, CycleBar, StretchLab, and others.
How the Company Makes MoneyXponential Fitness generates revenue primarily through its franchise model. The company earns franchise fees from studio owners who pay for the rights to operate under one of Xponential's brand names. Additionally, Xponential Fitness benefits from ongoing royalty payments based on a percentage of studio sales. Other revenue streams include the sale of branded fitness equipment and merchandise, as well as membership and class fees collected by franchisees. The company's strategic partnerships with vendors and suppliers also contribute to its earnings by providing cost efficiencies and expanding brand reach.
Xponential Fitness Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes income from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Analyzes income from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Data provided by:
Main Street Data
Main Street DataXponential Fitness Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Xponential Fitness shows growth potential with increasing revenues but faces notable challenges in profitability and financial stability. The company has a healthy gross margin but negative net income and high leverage, indicating financial risks.Income Statement
Xponential Fitness has shown modest revenue growth over the years, with a slight increase from 2023 to 2024. However, the company is currently facing challenges with profitability, as indicated by the negative EBIT and net income in the most recent year. The gross profit margin remains healthy, reflecting effective cost management. Overall, the income statement reflects growth potential but also highlights significant profitability issues.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet of Xponential Fitness reveals a concerning level of negative stockholders' equity, indicating financial instability. The high level of liabilities relative to assets and negative equity suggests high financial risk. While the debt-to-equity ratio is not calculable due to negative equity, the company's leverage is high. The company's asset base has slightly improved, but financial structure remains weak.30
Negative
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement shows a positive trend in operating cash flow, indicating some operational efficiency. However, there is a significant drop in free cash flow from 2023 to 2024, which could strain future liquidity. While the company generates positive operating cash flow, the free cash flow to net income ratio is affected by the negative net income, reflecting cash flow challenges amidst ongoing operational improvements.55
Neutral
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 320.35M | 318.66M | 244.95M | 155.08M | 106.59M | Gross Profit |
| 260.87M | 222.09M | 162.00M | 100.77M | 65.37M | EBIT |
| -53.61M | 39.67M | 15.14M | -3.04M | -2.85M | EBITDA |
| -35.08M | 67.98M | 34.39M | -15.78M | 6.88M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -64.95M | -17.48M | 2.88M | -51.44M | -13.64M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 32.74M | 27.76M | 37.37M | 21.32M | 11.30M | Total Assets |
| 403.40M | 528.70M | 482.69M | 415.54M | 322.84M | Total Debt |
| 379.62M | 406.62M | 166.66M | 131.93M | 182.77M | Net Debt |
| 362.95M | 378.86M | 129.29M | 110.61M | 171.47M | Total Liabilities |
| 597.40M | 616.83M | 690.75M | 626.01M | 318.09M | Stockholders Equity |
| -99.76M | -10.59M | -154.78M | -654.43M | 4.75M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 6.96M | 26.05M | 35.54M | 9.59M | -3.62M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 11.68M | 35.42M | 51.67M | 14.45M | -728.00K | Investing Cash Flow |
| -14.15M | -12.59M | -14.61M | -50.63M | -4.60M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -1.88M | -23.11M | -21.01M | 46.20M | 7.29M |
Xponential Fitness Technical Analysis
Neutral
9.18
Price Trends
8.52
Positive
11.94
Negative
12.82
Negative
Market Momentum
0.17
Negative
55.28
Neutral
71.36
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XPOF, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 9.18 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.37, above the 50-day MA of 8.52, and below the 200-day MA of 12.82, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.36 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for XPOF.
Xponential Fitness Risk Analysis
Xponential Fitness disclosed 68 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Xponential Fitness reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Xponential Fitness Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $426.66M | 18.01 | -102.54% | 1.92% | 6.83% | 24.77% | |
71 Outperform | $378.41M | 51.25 | 2.62% | 0.63% | -3.93% | -59.06% | |
67 Neutral | $390.96M | 6.93 | -42.81% | 8.15% | -0.33% | -35.74% | |
61 Neutral | $6.98B | 11.35 | 2.88% | 3.90% | 2.65% | -21.84% | |
50 Neutral | $445.37M | ― | 22.27% | ― | -3.17% | -194.72% | |
45 Neutral | $230.73M | ― | -9.24% | ― | -3.30% | 85.53% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
XPOF
Xponential Fitness
9.18
0.67
7.87%
DIN
Dine Brands Global
25.02
-14.95
-37.40%
NATH
Nathan's Famous
104.33
37.08
55.14%
RICK
RCI Hospitality Holdings
43.01
-4.60
-9.66%
FNKO
Funko
4.20
-4.19
-49.94%
Xponential Fitness Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 5.52%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
While there are notable achievements such as strong sales growth in North America and international expansion, the earnings call highlighted several challenges including a decline in revenue, increased studio closures, and significant legal costs. The sentiment is neutral as the positive aspects are balanced by the significant challenges faced.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong North American Sales Growth
North American system-wide sales increased by 18% year over year to $467 million, driven by a 4% same-store sales increase and growth from net new studio openings.
Expansion and New Appointments
The company appointed a new Chief Marketing Officer and Chief Human Resource Officer, and is launching a new field operations function with 12 field managers across North America.
International Expansion Success
Notable success in international markets such as Spain, Portugal, France, Japan, and Australia, with plans for a physical presence in Asia later this year.
Cash Position Improvement
Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash were $42.6 million as of March 31, 2025, up from $27.2 million as of the previous year.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline
Consolidated revenue for the quarter was $76.9 million, down 4% from $79.7 million in the prior year period.
Increased Studio Closures
The company experienced 51 global studio closures in Q1, representing an annualized closure rate of 6%, with elevated closures in CycleBar and StretchLab.
License Sales Lagging
One-third of global licenses contractually obligated to open are lagging over twelve months behind schedule, prompting a campaign to address the issue.
Legal and Settlement Costs
Selling, general, and administrative expenses increased by 24% year over year, driven by a $15 million accrual for a potential settlement of a threatened franchise class action.
Lower Equipment and Merchandise Revenue
Equipment revenue declined by 20% and merchandise revenue decreased by 25% year over year.
Company Guidance
During the Q1 2025 earnings call, Xponential Fitness provided guidance on several key metrics and strategic initiatives. The company reported North American system-wide sales of $467 million, marking an 18% year-over-year increase, with average unit volumes rising by 8% to $659,000. Total membership increased by 12% to 865,000, while same-store sales grew by 4%. The company experienced a 4% decline in consolidated revenue to $76.9 million, largely due to lower equipment and merchandise sales, despite a 5% increase in franchise revenue. Adjusted EBITDA was $27.3 million, reflecting a 9% decline mainly due to accelerated marketing expenses. Looking ahead, Xponential projects North American system-wide sales to reach $1.935 billion to $1.955 billion, with adjusted EBITDA expected to grow by 5% to between $120 million and $125 million. The company anticipates a net new studio opening range of 60 to 80, a reduction from prior forecasts, while closures are expected to be 6% to 8% of the global system. Key strategic focuses include enhancing operational efficiency, strengthening franchisee support through new field operations, and driving international growth, particularly in markets such as Mexico, Portugal, Spain, and Japan.Xponential Fitness Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Xponential Fitness CEO Mark King Announces Retirement
Neutral
May 15, 2025
On May 15, 2025, Xponential Fitness announced that its CEO, Mark King, plans to retire due to health reasons. King will remain in his role until a successor is appointed, ensuring a smooth transition. During his tenure, King focused on franchisee health, customer-centric culture, and strategic growth, contributing significantly to the company’s development. The Board of Directors is committed to a thorough search for a new CEO, with King’s continued support during the transition. The announcement highlights the company’s commitment to maintaining its leadership position in the health and wellness industry.
The most recent analyst rating on (XPOF) stock is a Hold with a $12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Xponential Fitness stock, see the XPOF Stock Forecast page.
Spark’s Take on XPOF Stock
According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, XPOF is a Neutral.
Xponential Fitness presents a mixed investment picture. While there are strengths in sales growth and strategic initiatives, significant financial challenges and valuation concerns weigh heavily. Technical indicators show potential short-term gains, but long-term sustainability depends on improved profitability and operational efficiency.
To see Spark’s full report on XPOF stock, click here.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.