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VSE
(NASDAQ:VSEC)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$262.00
▲(34.07% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/07/26
The score is driven by strong operational momentum and a positive outlook from the latest earnings call (raised 2026 guidance and record profitability), supported by bullish technicals with the stock trading above key moving averages. Offsetting these strengths are weak/volatile cash generation in the financial statements and a demanding valuation (high P/E with a low dividend yield).
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth and Guidance
Strong organic growth alongside acquired revenue indicates expanding customer demand and broader market reach. The raised outlook supports a durable growth trajectory over the next several quarters, provided integration remains effective.
Negative Factors
Weak Cash Conversion
Negative trailing cash flow limits the company’s ability to self-fund expansion and reduce debt, even with positive earnings. Volatile conversion also raises execution risk because working capital and investment needs may remain elevated.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth and Guidance
Strong organic growth alongside acquired revenue indicates expanding customer demand and broader market reach. The raised outlook supports a durable growth trajectory over the next several quarters, provided integration remains effective.
Read all positive factors
VSE (VSEC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.61B
Dividend Yield0.17%
Average Volume (3M)493.28K
Price to Earnings (P/E)83.8
Beta (1Y)1.56
Revenue Growth23.35%
EPS Growth56.45%
CountryUS
Employees1,600
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.75
Shares Outstanding28,064,972
10 Day Avg. Volume435,929
30 Day Avg. Volume493,283
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.45
Price to Book (P/B)2.55
Price to Sales (P/S)3.30
P/FCF Ratio642.39
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$270.71Price Target Upside38.53% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)6.26
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.81B
VSE Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
VSE Corporation engages in providing aviation aftermarket parts distribution and maintenance, repair, and overhaul services for air transportation assets for commercial and government markets. It offers its services to global client base of commer...
How the Company Makes Money
VSE makes money primarily by selling products and services that keep aircraft operating after initial manufacture. Its core revenue streams include: (1) Aftermarket parts distribution: VSE purchases aircraft components (e.g., engine and airframe p...
VSE Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong, tangible operational and financial progress: record revenue ($449M, +65% YoY), robust organic growth (~14%), exceptional margin expansion (adjusted EBITDA margin 19.2%, +320 bps) and raised full-year guidance. These positive developments were balanced by elevated absolute debt levels (total debt ~$967M, net debt ~ $872M), transaction and integration costs, and the fact that material acquisition synergies are expected to be realized primarily in 2027. On balance the favorable results, guidance raise, and clear integration plans materially outweigh the near-term financial and execution risks, producing a constructive outlook.Positive Updates
Strategic Acquisitions Closed (PAG and NorthStar)
Closed PAG acquisition on May 5 in a transaction valued at approximately $2.0 billion (cash and equity) and closed NorthStar on April 1; acquisitions materially expand global scale, proprietary content, repair capabilities and engine-related MRO/logistics, and integration workstreams and commercial collaboration have already begun.
Negative Updates
High Absolute Debt and Interest Cost
Total debt of $967 million and net debt of ~ $872 million at quarter end; interest expense (net of income) projected at $36 million to $39 million for full-year 2026, creating meaningful ongoing financing costs to service.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strategic Acquisitions Closed (PAG and NorthStar)
Closed PAG acquisition on May 5 in a transaction valued at approximately $2.0 billion (cash and equity) and closed NorthStar on April 1; acquisitions materially expand global scale, proprietary content, repair capabilities and engine-related MRO/logistics, and integration workstreams and commercial collaboration have already begun.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
VSE raised its full‑year 2026 outlook, now targeting revenue growth of 61%–64% (up from 57%–61%) and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18.7%–19.0% (up from 18.1%–18.5%), citing double‑digit organic growth and early contributions from acquisitions; the raise was supported by Q2 results of $449M revenue (+65% YoY, ~14% organic), $86M adjusted EBITDA (+98% YoY) and a 19.2% adjusted EBITDA margin (≈+320 bps). Management expects meaningful free cash flow improvement in H2 (Q2 FCF ≈$19M; FCF conversion ≈34% of adjusted EBITDA excluding ~$10M PAG transaction cash costs), continued deleveraging from an adjusted net leverage of 2.4x at quarter end, and balance sheet flexibility from a $900M Term Loan B, a $500M revolver, total debt ~$967M, cash ~$75M and net debt ≈$872M. Modeling assumptions for 2026 include interest expense (net) of ~$36M–$39M, depreciation & amortization of ~$96M–$100M, an effective tax rate of ~25%, stock‑based compensation of ~$18M–$19M, and capital expenditures of ~2.0%–2.5% of revenue, with management expressing confidence in continued margin expansion toward >20% over time.VSE Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
76
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.36B | 1.11B | 1.08B | 860.49M | 669.45M | 750.85M |
| Gross Profit | 189.68M | 132.13M | 108.20M | 95.61M | 57.24M | 25.14M |
| EBITDA | 177.15M | 129.52M | 110.18M | 111.41M | 78.21M | 47.12M |
| Net Income | 74.90M | 53.49M | 30.52M | 39.13M | 28.06M | 7.97M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.40B | 2.03B | 1.73B | 1.35B | 999.79M | 918.56M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 75.36M | 69.36M | 29.03M | 7.77M | 305.00K | 518.00K |
| Total Debt | 1.03B | 342.80M | 485.21M | 459.26M | 308.64M | 317.73M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.46B | 589.77M | 746.43M | 733.61M | 550.26M | 501.23M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.93B | 1.44B | 988.19M | 616.73M | 449.53M | 417.33M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.12M | 5.71M | -51.74M | -40.49M | -3.16M | -28.12M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 27.02M | 26.99M | -31.04M | -21.83M | 8.05M | -17.60M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.16B | -276.45M | -263.67M | -235.69M | -2.38M | -61.63M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.19B | 289.79M | 315.81M | 264.97M | -5.71M | 79.37M |
VSE Technical Analysis
Positive
195.42
Price Trends
212.02
Positive
199.19
Positive
195.29
Positive
Market Momentum
9.10
Negative
56.33
Neutral
67.54
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VSEC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 195.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 216.62, below the 50-day MA of 212.02, and above the 200-day MA of 195.29, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 9.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VSEC.
VSE Risk Analysis
VSE disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. VSE reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
VSE Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $2.55B | 28.16 | 8.35% | ― | 12.99% | 31.03% | |
70 Outperform | $6.00B | 28.52 | 12.19% | ― | 18.97% | 1317.49% | |
67 Neutral | $6.61B | 83.79 | 3.73% | 0.20% | 23.35% | 56.45% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
60 Neutral | $3.08B | -110.59 | -3.72% | ― | 8.57% | -162.23% | |
59 Neutral | $6.30B | -199.23 | -2.01% | ― | 7.85% | 22.99% |
* Industrials Sector Average
VSEC
VSE
214.51
51.91
31.93%
AIR
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MRCY
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VVX
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79.01
21.26
36.81%
VSE Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
VSE Declares Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend for Shareholders
Positive
Aug 6, 2026
On August 6, 2026, VSE Corporation announced that its Board of Directors had approved a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share of common stock on August 4, 2026. The dividend will be paid on October 29, 2026, to stockholders of record ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.