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UWM Holding
(NYSE:UWMC)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$1.00
▼(-33.77% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/23/26
UWMC’s score is held back primarily by high leverage/thin equity and highly volatile, recently negative cash flows, despite strong operating profitability. Technicals also remain weak with bearish momentum below key moving averages. Offsetting these are improving balance-sheet actions highlighted in the earnings call and corporate updates (large capital raises/rights offering and preliminary profitability), while valuation signals are mixed due to a negative P/E and an unusually high yield that appears risky given the dividend suspension.
Positive Factors
Wholesale scale and servicing reach
UWM’s sizable wholesale origination share and large servicing portfolio demonstrate meaningful scale in a fragmented mortgage market. That platform can support operating efficiency, broker reach, recurring servicing economics, and stronger competitive positioning as housing and refinancing activity develop.
Negative Factors
Industry volume pressure and lower revenue outlook
UWM remains exposed to the overall mortgage cycle, and weaker industry origination volumes can reduce loan production income and operating leverage. A lower revenue outlook indicates that scale alone may not fully offset softer market activity over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Wholesale scale and servicing reach
UWM’s sizable wholesale origination share and large servicing portfolio demonstrate meaningful scale in a fragmented mortgage market. That platform can support operating efficiency, broker reach, recurring servicing economics, and stronger competitive positioning as housing and refinancing activity develop.
Read all positive factors
UWM Holding (UWMC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.33B
Dividend Yield27.59%
Average Volume (3M)12.94M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.66
Revenue Growth11.65%
EPS Growth-440.08%
CountryUS
Employees9,100
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Mortgages
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.08
Shares Outstanding345,098,880
10 Day Avg. Volume13,159,115
30 Day Avg. Volume12,941,828
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.00
Price to Book (P/B)4.64
Price to Sales (P/S)0.29
P/FCF Ratio-0.34
Enterprise Value/Market Cap7.30
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.31
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.22
Enterprise Value/Ebitda23.00
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$2.21Price Target Upside46.36% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.19
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.37B
UWM Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
UWM Holdings Corporation is a U.S.-based enterprise specializing in the provision of residential mortgage financing. The company originates home loans predominantly through a wholesale distribution model, with its offerings primarily consisting of...
How the Company Makes Money
UWMC makes money primarily by originating and funding residential mortgage loans and monetizing those loans through sale, securitization, and ongoing servicing-related economics. Key revenue and earnings drivers typically include: (1) Gain-on-sale...
UWM Holding Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized a strengthened balance sheet, a large strategic capital infusion with Oaktree, and consistent operating profitability (adjusted EBITDA $160M–$200M and ~$40B originations), all framed as positioning UWM for long-term growth. Management acknowledged near-term negatives — a one-time hedge loss, higher servicing costs during the transition, the failed Two Harbors deal and potential warrant dilution — but presented these as transactional or temporary impacts offset by the capital raise, fortified equity (~$3B), and improved debt ratios (nonfunding debt-to-equity down to ~1.2x). Overall, management’s tone was optimistic about long-term prospects and viewed the negatives as manageable or one-time events.Positive Updates
Consistent Adjusted EBITDA and Quarterly Originations
Management reported adjusted EBITDA of roughly $160M–$200M consistently and noted operating income/adjusted EBITDA 'over $180M' in the second quarter. Originations were about $40B in the quarter (down from $45B the prior quarter, ~11% sequential decline), demonstrating a large, functioning origination engine.
Negative Updates
Dividend Suspension
Management announced a pause/suspension of the regular dividend to prioritize retaining equity and bolstering liquidity following the capital transaction. They left open the possibility of special or resumed dividends in the future.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consistent Adjusted EBITDA and Quarterly Originations
Management reported adjusted EBITDA of roughly $160M–$200M consistently and noted operating income/adjusted EBITDA 'over $180M' in the second quarter. Originations were about $40B in the quarter (down from $45B the prior quarter, ~11% sequential decline), demonstrating a large, functioning origination engine.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that following the $2B+ capital raise (Oaktree ~ $1.5B and Mathew Ishbia ~ $500–550M) UWM’s total equity should rise from roughly $1B to over $3B and the non‑funding debt‑to‑equity ratio has fallen from ~5.6x (post hedge loss) to ~1.2x (well below industry norms of ~1.5–2x); they have suspended the regular dividend to retain liquidity and will reevaluate each quarter. They noted interest savings of roughly $100M from paying down MSR lines versus paying about $165M on the new preferred at a ~10% coupon, and emphasized the structure includes 330M warrants (165M exercisable at $2, 165M at $6; average ~$4). Operational guidance reiterated steady adjusted EBITDA of roughly $160–200M per quarter (management cited >$180M operating income and $400–500M annual operating results), originations of ~$40B in Q2 (≈$45B prior quarter) with capacity to handle $250–300B, and servicing exposure of ~2–3% of the servicing market while capturing ~12–13% of refinances; the recent hedge loss was described as a one‑time, transaction‑specific event and hedging policies will be tightened.UWM Holding Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.21B | 3.16B | 1.91B | 1.11B | 2.15B | 2.83B |
| Gross Profit | 2.73B | 2.71B | 1.37B | 755.02M | 1.81B | 2.48B |
| EBITDA | 739.36M | 837.20M | 384.73M | -26.23M | 984.07M | 1.62B |
| Net Income | -37.14M | 27.38M | 14.40M | -13.23M | 41.72M | 98.44M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 17.94B | 16.93B | 15.67B | 11.87B | 13.60B | 22.53B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 498.41M | 503.36M | 507.34M | 497.47M | 704.90M | 731.09M |
| Total Debt | 14.65B | 14.44B | 12.84B | 8.73B | 9.78B | 18.79B |
| Total Liabilities | 16.96B | 15.34B | 13.62B | 9.40B | 10.43B | 19.36B |
| Stockholders Equity | 133.71M | 199.52M | 161.52M | 112.55M | 143.56M | 142.40M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -4.92B | -2.72B | -6.28B | 138.81M | 8.24B | -10.02B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -4.86B | -2.65B | -6.24B | 165.24M | 8.27B | -9.96B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.48B | 2.26B | 2.68B | 1.83B | 1.29B | 199.75M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 3.42B | 384.02M | 3.58B | -2.20B | -9.58B | 9.26B |
UWM Holding Technical Analysis
Positive
1.51
Price Trends
1.29
Positive
1.65
Negative
2.76
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.03
Negative
65.79
Neutral
78.50
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UWMC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.51 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.15, above the 50-day MA of 1.29, and below the 200-day MA of 2.76, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UWMC.
UWM Holding Risk Analysis
UWM Holding disclosed 52 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. UWM Holding reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
UWM Holding Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
62 Neutral | $604.07M | 5.50 | 15.83% | ― | 31.59% | 17.94% | |
56 Neutral | $33.22B | 75.00 | 2.40% | 5.58% | 95.19% | ― | |
55 Neutral | $3.31B | 8.42 | 9.14% | 1.88% | 24.08% | 0.60% | |
51 Neutral | $2.33B | -18.10 | -20.07% | 27.59% | 11.65% | -440.08% | |
47 Neutral | $317.86M | -1.52 | -465.27% | ― | 41.17% | 16.62% | |
41 Neutral | $207.59M | -2.03 | -30.86% | 23.07% | 17.11% | 9.17% |
* Financial Sector Average
UWMC
UWM Holding
1.45
-3.88
-72.79%
PFSI
PennyMac Financial
63.68
-67.56
-51.48%
LDI
loanDepot
0.61
-2.85
-82.28%
VEL
Velocity Financial
15.30
-3.40
-18.18%
RKT
Rocket Companies
11.73
-6.43
-35.41%
BETR
Better Home & Finance
16.72
-61.78
-78.70%
UWM Holding Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
UWM Holding Announces Strong Preliminary Q3 2026 Results
Positive
Oct 23, 2026
On October 5, 2026, UWM Holdings began a rights offering of up to $400 million, giving Class A shareholders of record on October 2 the right to buy additional shares at a price linked to the stock’s recent trading average, though the company...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
UWM Holding Announces $400 Million Rights Offering Plan
Positive
Oct 5, 2026
On October 5, 2026, UWM Holdings Corporation launched a rights offering aimed at raising up to $400 million, granting each holder of Class A common stock as of the October 2, 2026 record date one right per share to buy 0.57 new shares at a subscri...
Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
UWM Holding Registers Resale of Preferred Stock and Warrants
Neutral
Oct 1, 2026
On October 1, 2026, UWM Holdings Corporation registered for resale up to 1,500,000 shares of Series A-1 preferred stock, 165,000,000 Class A warrants, 165,000,000 Class B warrants, and 330,000,000 shares of Class A common stock issuable upon warra...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
UWM Holding Secures Major Preferred Equity Investment
Negative
Aug 6, 2026
On August 5, 2026, UWM Holdings closed a $1.65 billion financing through the issuance of Series A-1 and A-2 preferred stock and long-dated warrants to affiliates of Oaktree Capital Management and Ishbia family entities, as part of a broader $2.05 ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.