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Upstart Holdings
(NASDAQ:UPST)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$31.00
▲(15.11% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/05/26
The score is held back primarily by weak cash-flow quality (deeply negative TTM operating and free cash flow despite positive earnings) and only mixed technical trends (negative MACD and price well below the 200-day average). Offsetting these risks, the latest earnings call was constructive with reiterated guidance, improving profitability, strong origination growth, and strengthened funding relationships, though valuation remains relatively expensive at a ~53.8 P/E without dividend support.
Positive Factors
Funding strength and capital partnerships
Material new committed capacity and multiple securitizations expand durable funding bandwidth, reducing dependence on ad‑hoc capital. Larger, recurring funding relationships and tighter ABS spreads support sustained origination capacity and help stabilize fee revenue over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Weak cash-flow conversion
Sustained negative operating and free cash flow despite GAAP profitability indicates fragile earnings quality and inconsistent cash conversion. This structural cash burn raises reliance on external funding, elevates refinancing and execution risk, and constrains discretionary investments or balance sheet optionality.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Funding strength and capital partnerships
Material new committed capacity and multiple securitizations expand durable funding bandwidth, reducing dependence on ad‑hoc capital. Larger, recurring funding relationships and tighter ABS spreads support sustained origination capacity and help stabilize fee revenue over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Upstart Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Transaction Volume
Indicates the total number of transactions processed, reflecting the company's market activity and potential revenue growth.
Indicates the total number of transactions processed, reflecting the company's market activity and potential revenue growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyUpstart Holdings (UPST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.63B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.96M
Price to Earnings (P/E)53.8
Beta (1Y)3.51
Revenue Growth57.69%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees1,405
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.62
Shares Outstanding95,711,570
10 Day Avg. Volume3,176,236
30 Day Avg. Volume3,956,678
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.56
Price to Book (P/B)5.26
Price to Sales (P/S)3.90
P/FCF Ratio-25.28
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$42.27Price Target Upside56.97% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)0.84
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.42B
Upstart Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Upstart Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Personal Lending, Auto Lending, and Other. Its platform...
How the Company Makes Money
Upstart primarily makes money by providing its lending platform and related services to lending partners and earning fees tied to loan originations and the ongoing performance/administration of those loans. Key revenue streams include: (1) Platfor...
Upstart Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong execution: record contribution profit, a return to GAAP profitability, robust origination growth (notably in core personal loans and secured products), meaningful improvement in secured product margins, and materially strengthened funding relationships. Management reiterated full-year guidance despite a modest macro headwind (UMI), emphasized capital discipline (sunsetting non-core lines), and signaled upcoming operational upside from the conditional bank approval and ongoing model/infrastructure improvements. The primary risks noted were still-negative secured margins (albeit rapidly improving), elevated year-over-year operating expense growth (with some one-time items), and sensitivity to UMI-driven macro conditions that caused a modest slow in July volumes. Overall, positive business momentum and strong funding give confidence, balanced with short-term macro sensitivity and continued investment-related expense cadence.Positive Updates
Record Contribution Profit and Return to GAAP Profitability
Contribution profit reached an all-time high of $193M in Q2, up 37% year-over-year and 41% sequentially (+$56M QoQ). The company returned to GAAP net income of approximately $17M (a 195% YoY increase) with a 5% net income margin and GAAP diluted EPS of $0.16.
Negative Updates
Secured Products Still Loss-Making Today
Despite a 61 percentage point QoQ improvement, secured products remained at a negative contribution margin of -35% in Q2 and have not yet reached breakeven (expected by Q4). The business still requires further margin and operational improvements to be accretive.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Contribution Profit and Return to GAAP Profitability
Contribution profit reached an all-time high of $193M in Q2, up 37% year-over-year and 41% sequentially (+$56M QoQ). The company returned to GAAP net income of approximately $17M (a 195% YoY increase) with a 5% net income margin and GAAP diluted EPS of $0.16.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Upstart reiterated full‑year guidance, calling for total revenue of approximately $1.4 billion, fee revenue of roughly $1.3 billion and adjusted EBITDA of about $294 million (≈21% of revenue), with the back half of the year expected to be weighted to stronger EBITDA; this outlook assumes their most recent UMI read of 1.5 (up 9% since the start of Q2 and at the top of the 1.4–1.5 range) holds roughly flat, secured products reaching contribution‑margin breakeven by Q4, fixed expenses growing only in the low single digits sequentially in Q3 and Q4, and continued third‑party funding support (year‑to‑date committed capital expected to add up to $10.8 billion of capacity, with $5 billion of new committed capacity since May and a $569 million upsized ABS completed).Upstart Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.26B | 1.08B | 676.96M | 547.72M | 853.29M | 849.89M |
| Gross Profit | 553.32M | 1.02B | 628.83M | 508.12M | 837.76M | 846.61M |
| EBITDA | 60.79M | 79.16M | -107.85M | -215.12M | -95.56M | 141.27M |
| Net Income | 60.33M | 53.60M | -128.58M | -240.13M | -108.67M | 135.44M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.17B | 2.97B | 2.37B | 2.02B | 1.94B | 1.82B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 496.96M | 657.45M | 793.61M | 377.32M | 432.41M | 994.99M |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 1.85B | 1.45B | 1.10B | 1.09B | 795.80M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.37B | 2.18B | 1.73B | 1.38B | 1.26B | 1.01B |
| Stockholders Equity | 797.49M | 798.82M | 633.22M | 635.30M | 672.43M | 807.08M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -296.70M | -166.13M | 176.34M | -123.80M | -680.77M | 153.24M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -284.01M | -147.72M | 186.33M | -111.71M | -657.86M | 168.35M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 106.19M | -177.17M | -237.73M | -118.45M | -114.13M | -143.88M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 458.63M | 405.64M | 559.87M | 165.49M | 113.21M | 855.43M |
Upstart Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
26.93
Price Trends
31.15
Negative
30.06
Positive
35.83
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.95
Negative
52.44
Neutral
73.49
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UPST, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 26.93 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.52, below the 50-day MA of 31.15, and below the 200-day MA of 35.83, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.95 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.49 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UPST.
Upstart Holdings Risk Analysis
Upstart Holdings disclosed 61 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Upstart Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Upstart Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $5.20B | 35.82 | 90.93% | ― | 46.14% | 38.52% | |
72 Outperform | $23.95B | 62.18 | 11.17% | ― | 32.33% | ― | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $7.23B | 9.41 | 23.07% | 7.01% | 6.93% | 19.96% | |
55 Neutral | $2.63B | 53.79 | 6.59% | ― | 57.69% | ― | |
48 Neutral | $788.57M | -13.75 | -2.45% | 7.78% | -20.89% | -217.55% |
* Financial Sector Average
UPST
Upstart Holdings
30.32
-36.82
-54.84%
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Upstart Holdings Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Upstart Holdings Shareholders Approve Directors and Governance Matters
Positive
May 28, 2026
Upstart Holdings, Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders on May 28, 2026, at which shareholders elected Kerry Cooper, Mary Hentges and Ciaran O’Kelly as Class III directors to serve until the 2029 annual meeting or until successors are...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Upstart Appoints Veteran Banker Tim Wennes to Board
Positive
May 19, 2026
On May 19, 2026, Upstart announced that veteran banker Tim Wennes, former President and CEO of Santander Holdings USA, will join its Board of Directors as a Class I director effective May 28, 2026, receiving standard outside director compensation ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.