UnitedHealth (UNH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $273.87B
• Dividend Yield: 2.78%
• Average Volume (3M): 23.36M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.6
• Beta (1Y): -0.14
• Revenue Growth: 8.68%
• EPS Growth: 45.24%
• Country: US
• Employees: 400,000
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Medical - Healthcare Plans
• EPS (TTM): 7.20
• Shares Outstanding: 907,140,440
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 26,238,234
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 23,360,874
• PEG Ratio: 0.30
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 14.64
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $377.77
• Price Target Upside: 25.13% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 26

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $332.00 ▲(9.97%Upside)

UnitedHealth's strong financial performance and reasonable valuation are overshadowed by bearish technical indicators and challenges detailed in the recent earnings call. The CEO transition adds uncertainty, though the company's strategic growth focus provides some optimism. Investors should monitor the impact of increased care activity and member profile changes on future performance.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

UnitedHealth Group's stock is trading significantly below its 10-year historical average, presenting a potential opportunity due to its competitive advantages in a scaled, diversified model.

Growth Prospects

Achieving higher margins and profitability in the physician capitation business is significant for the company's future growth prospects and helps in reattaining a premium multiple.

Investor Confidence

Regaining investor confidence by reminding of the vertically integrated value-based care offering can help UNH recover a part of the premium.

Negative Factors

Competitive Challenges

UNH has been ceding overall I-SNP market share with UNH’s I-SNP enrollment remaining between 50-70k members in recent years, while non-UNH I-SNPs have grown.

Leadership and Strategy

Leadership change, pulled 2025 guidance, alleged Medicare fraud have resulted in market cap halving since Q1 result.

Legal Risks

An unconfirmed report suggests that the DOJ is investigating UnitedHealth Group for possible Medicare fraud.

UnitedHealth Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated operates as a diversified health care company in the United States. It operates through four segments: UnitedHealthcare, Optum Health, Optum Insight, and Optum Rx. The UnitedHealthcare segment offers consumer-oriented health benefit plans and services for national employers, public sector employers, mid-sized employers, small businesses, and individuals; health care coverage and well-being services to individuals age 50 and older addressing their needs for preventive and acute health care services, as well as services dealing with chronic disease and other specialized issues for older individuals; Medicaid plans, children's health insurance and health care programs; health and dental benefits; and hospital and clinical services. The OptumHealth segment provides access to networks of care provider specialists, health management services, care delivery, consumer engagement, and financial services. This segment serves individuals directly through care delivery systems, employers, payers, and government entities. The OptumInsight segment offers software and information products, advisory consulting arrangements, and managed services outsourcing contracts to hospital systems, physicians, health plans, governments, life sciences companies, and other organizations. The OptumRx segment provides pharmacy care services and programs, including retail network contracting, home delivery, specialty and compounding pharmacy, and purchasing and clinical capabilities, as well as develops programs in the areas of step therapy, formulary management, drug adherence, and disease/drug therapy management. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated was incorporated in 1977 and is based in Minnetonka, Minnesota.

How the Company Makes Money

UnitedHealth Group generates revenue through its diverse range of healthcare services and products. The primary source of income comes from premiums collected by UnitedHealthcare from its insurance products, which cover a broad spectrum of health benefits for both individuals and organizations. OptumHealth contributes to the revenue with its health management and care delivery services, earning money through fees for service and care coordination. OptumInsight derives revenue from providing data analytics, technology solutions, and consulting services to healthcare entities. OptumRx generates income through pharmacy benefit management, including prescription drug sales, home delivery, and specialty pharmacy services. Together, these segments enable UnitedHealth Group to capitalize on the growing demand for integrated healthcare solutions. Strategic partnerships with healthcare providers, government agencies, and technology firms also play a crucial role in expanding its service offerings and market reach, further driving its profitability.

UnitedHealth Financial Statement Overview

Summary

UnitedHealth exhibits strong financial health with substantial revenue growth and robust cash flow management. However, declining net profit margins and return on equity indicate potential areas for improvement. Despite these issues, the balance sheet is stable with moderate leverage, supporting future growth.

Income Statement

UnitedHealth has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a consistent increase in total revenue over the years, reaching $400.3 billion in 2024 from $367.5 billion in 2023, resulting in a revenue growth rate of 8.9%. The gross profit margin slightly improved from 23.6% in 2023 to 22.3% in 2024, while EBIT margin remained stable at approximately 8.1%. The net profit margin decreased from 6.1% in 2023 to 3.6% in 2024, which indicates a potential area of concern. Overall, the company shows strong revenue growth trends but with a slight decrease in profitability.

Balance Sheet

UnitedHealth's balance sheet is robust with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.74 in 2024, indicating moderate leverage. The equity ratio is 32.9%, showing a healthy balance of equity to total assets. Return on equity, however, decreased from 25.2% in 2023 to 14.7% in 2024, suggesting reduced profitability on shareholders' equity. Despite solid equity and asset management, the decline in ROE may indicate potential challenges in maximizing shareholder value.

Cash Flow

The company has maintained a positive free cash flow, although it decreased from $25.7 billion in 2023 to $20.7 billion in 2024, reflecting a free cash flow growth rate of -19.5%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio improved to 1.68 in 2024, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.44, demonstrating effective cash flow management. Despite a decline in free cash flow growth, the overall cash flow position remains solid.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
407.42B	400.28B	367.53B	322.13B	285.27B	255.64B
	Gross Profit
87.53B	89.40B	86.87B	77.59B	67.33B	65.50B
	EBIT
33.48B	32.29B	32.36B	28.43B	23.97B	22.41B
	EBITDA
31.08B	9.77B	32.52B	31.84B	27.07B	25.30B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
22.11B	14.40B	22.38B	20.12B	17.29B	15.40B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
34.29B	29.11B	29.63B	27.91B	23.91B	19.78B
	Total Assets
309.79B	298.28B	273.72B	245.71B	212.21B	197.29B
	Total Debt
9.99B	76.90B	62.54B	57.62B	46.00B	43.47B
	Net Debt
-24.30B	51.59B	37.11B	34.26B	24.63B	26.55B
	Total Liabilities
0.00	195.69B	174.80B	159.36B	135.73B	126.75B
	Stockholders Equity
0.00	92.66B	88.76B	77.77B	71.76B	65.49B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
24.86B	20.70B	25.68B	23.40B	19.89B	20.12B
	Operating Cash Flow
28.52B	24.20B	29.07B	26.21B	22.34B	22.17B
	Investing Cash Flow
-14.26B	-20.53B	-15.57B	-28.48B	-10.37B	-12.53B
	Financing Cash Flow
-11.64B	-3.51B	-11.53B	4.23B	-7.46B	-3.59B

UnitedHealth Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 301.91
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UNH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 301.91 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 332.34, below the 50-day MA of 434.30, and below the 200-day MA of 519.69, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -39.69 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 30.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for UNH.

UnitedHealth Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CNC	77 Outperform	$28.08B	8.40	12.59%	―	8.85%	33.30%
CI	74 Outperform	$84.59B	17.54	12.37%	1.80%	25.21%	-29.37%
HUM	72 Outperform	$28.14B	16.48	10.09%	1.52%	10.09%	-12.18%
ELV	71 Outperform	$86.72B	14.98	14.24%	1.72%	6.63%	-3.26%
UNH	69 Neutral	$273.87B	12.62	24.33%	2.78%	8.68%	45.24%
CVS	69 Neutral	$81.01B	15.30	7.00%	4.15%	4.84%	-26.54%
Sector *	53 Neutral	$5.22B	3.32	-45.04%	2.83%	16.81%	-0.27%

UnitedHealth Corporate Events

UnitedHealth Board Accepts Andrew Witty’s Resignation

On May 20, 2025, UnitedHealth Group’s Board of Directors accepted the resignation of Andrew Witty as a director, effective immediately. Consequently, Mr. Witty will not seek re-election at the upcoming annual shareholder meeting on June 2, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (UNH) stock is a Buy with a $647.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on UnitedHealth stock, see the UNH Stock Forecast page.

UnitedHealth CEO Transition Amid Financial Uncertainty

On May 12, 2025, UnitedHealth Group announced that CEO Andrew Witty would step down, with Steve Hemsley taking over as CEO while continuing as Board Chair. The company also suspended its 2025 outlook due to higher-than-expected medical expenditures, with plans to return to growth in 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (UNH) stock is a Buy with a $647.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on UnitedHealth stock, see the UNH Stock Forecast page.