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UnitedHealth
(NYSE:UNH)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$466.00
▲(17.50% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/17/26
UNH scores 70 primarily due to solid financial performance anchored by strong and improving cash generation and durable revenue growth, balanced against significant margin compression and some balance-sheet data reliability concerns. Technicals are supportive with price above major moving averages and positive MACD. Valuation is a headwind given the ~31.9 P/E despite a ~2.11% dividend yield. The earnings call adds support via raised guidance and increased buybacks, though medical cost trend pressure, Medicaid margin headwinds, and Medicare enrollment declines temper the outlook.
Positive Factors
Durable Revenue Growth
Sustained revenue growth indicates continued member, service and market expansion across UnitedHealthcare and Optum. A broad mix of insurance premiums, pharmacy services, care delivery and technology revenue supports a durable growth platform.
Negative Factors
Margin Compression
Lower margins show that revenue growth is not translating fully into earnings because of higher medical and operating costs or mix pressure. Persistently reduced profitability would limit earnings recovery and weaken the return profile of the scaled platform.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Durable Revenue Growth
Sustained revenue growth indicates continued member, service and market expansion across UnitedHealthcare and Optum. A broad mix of insurance premiums, pharmacy services, care delivery and technology revenue supports a durable growth platform.
Read all positive factors
UnitedHealth Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Categorizes income by source, such as premiums, services, or products, revealing diversification and potential vulnerabilities in revenue streams.
Categorizes income by source, such as premiums, services, or products, revealing diversification and potential vulnerabilities in revenue streams.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyUnitedHealth (UNH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$355.98B
Dividend Yield2.23%
Average Volume (3M)6.06M
Price to Earnings (P/E)25.8
Beta (1Y)0.38
Revenue Growth6.46%
EPS Growth-32.89%
CountryUS
Employees390,000
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Healthcare Plans
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)15.55
Shares Outstanding897,594,850
10 Day Avg. Volume6,401,192
30 Day Avg. Volume6,058,488
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.62
Price to Book (P/B)3.19
Price to Sales (P/S)0.67
P/FCF Ratio18.69
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$481.67Price Target Upside21.45% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering21
EPS Forecast (FY)19.76
Revenue Forecast (FY)$445.72B
UnitedHealth Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) operates as a comprehensive healthcare enterprise across the United States, structuring its diverse services into four key divisions: UnitedHealthcare, Optum Health, Optum Insight, and Optum Rx. The UnitedHeal...
How the Company Makes Money
UnitedHealth primarily makes money through (1) health insurance and related benefit services and (2) health services delivered through Optum. In UnitedHealthcare, revenue is largely generated from premiums paid by employers, individuals, and gover...
UnitedHealth Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 16, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call reflects a broadly positive tone: strong quarter-to-date financial results (notably double-digit EPS growth and raised guidance), solid operational progress across Optum (AI-led efficiency gains, improved care metrics), and meaningful shareholder returns and balance sheet improvement. However, the company faces notable near-term headwinds—elevated commercial medical cost trends, pressured Medicaid margins, Medicare enrollment declines, and some one-time favorable prior-period development—creating areas of ongoing focus and uncertainty. On balance, the positive developments and upgraded outlook outweigh the challenges, but management emphasizes continued urgency and investment to sustain improvement.Positive Updates
Strong Earnings and Profitability
Adjusted EPS of $6.38 in 2Q26 versus $4.08 in 2Q25, an increase of ~56%; operating earnings of $8.0B, up 55% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Commercial Medical Cost Trend Pressure
Commercial medical cost trends remain 'stubbornly high,' running modestly above an ~11% level; higher-than-expected trend is delaying commercial margin recovery beyond 2027, driven by IDR/No Surprises Act issues, provider coding intensity, higher cost per encounter, and specialty drug pressures (including GLP-1s).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Earnings and Profitability
Adjusted EPS of $6.38 in 2Q26 versus $4.08 in 2Q25, an increase of ~56%; operating earnings of $8.0B, up 55% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
UnitedHealth refreshed 2026 guidance with an adjusted EPS range of $19.50–$20.00 (Q2 adjusted EPS $6.38 vs. $4.08 a year ago), raised UnitedHealthcare operating earnings to at least $12.0 billion and Optum Health to at least $2.2 billion, and reported Q2 revenue of $112 billion and operating earnings of $8.0 billion (up 55% YoY). The company now expects a full‑year medical care ratio of 88.1% ±25 bps (Q2 MCR 86.7% included $860 million of favorable prior‑period development), an operating cost ratio toward the higher end of prior ranges (Q2 OCR 12.7%), and a roughly two‑thirds/one‑third first‑half/back‑half earnings cadence (Optum Insight and Optum Rx ~55% of their earnings in H2; Optum Health nearly all in H1). Capital and liquidity highlights include ~ $11 billion of Q2 operating cash flow (1.9x net income), $4 billion of repurchases through mid‑July (11.4M shares) with at least $5 billion planned for 2026, Q2 dividends of $2.1 billion and a $9.28 annualized dividend, and a debt‑to‑capital ratio of 41.2% (target ≈40% by year‑end). Management also quantified operating expectations and program goals: Medicare Advantage enrollment expected to decline ~1.1M with Medicare margins finishing above 3%; Medicaid margins expected to remain pressured but within the prior –1.0% to –1.7% range with annualized rate actions of ~6–7%; commercial medical cost trend modestly above 11%; Optum Rx retention in the high‑90s with >95% of clients on 100% rebate pass‑through by year‑end; and operational targets such as eliminating 30% of prior‑authorization volume and nearly two‑thirds of pediatric prior‑auth requirements by year‑end.UnitedHealth Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
61
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 450.13B | 447.57B | 400.28B | 371.62B | 324.16B | 287.60B |
| Gross Profit | 101.21B | 82.92B | 89.40B | 90.96B | 79.62B | 69.65B |
| EBITDA | 25.76B | 23.06B | 28.08B | 36.33B | 31.84B | 27.07B |
| Net Income | 14.12B | 12.06B | 14.40B | 22.38B | 20.12B | 17.29B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 309.73B | 309.58B | 298.28B | 273.72B | 245.71B | 212.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 31.47B | 28.12B | 29.11B | 29.63B | 27.91B | 23.91B |
| Total Debt | 73.33B | 78.39B | 76.90B | 67.44B | 57.62B | 46.00B |
| Total Liabilities | 203.78B | 207.88B | 195.69B | 174.80B | 159.36B | 135.73B |
| Stockholders Equity | 104.51B | 94.11B | 92.66B | 88.76B | 77.77B | 71.76B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 23.62B | 16.07B | 20.70B | 25.68B | 23.40B | 19.89B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 27.02B | 19.70B | 24.20B | 29.07B | 26.21B | 22.34B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -11.24B | -8.69B | -20.53B | -15.57B | -28.48B | -10.37B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -15.41B | -11.64B | -3.51B | -11.53B | 4.23B | -7.46B |
UnitedHealth Technical Analysis
Positive
396.59
Price Trends
413.22
Negative
388.79
Positive
346.49
Positive
Market Momentum
-5.52
Positive
47.72
Neutral
64.84
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UNH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 396.59 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 402.47, below the 50-day MA of 413.22, and above the 200-day MA of 346.49, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -5.52 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UNH.
UnitedHealth Risk Analysis
UnitedHealth disclosed 21 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. UnitedHealth reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
UnitedHealth Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $73.81B | 11.58 | 15.24% | 2.12% | 8.15% | 31.47% | |
70 Outperform | $355.98B | 25.79 | 14.40% | 2.13% | 6.46% | -32.89% | |
68 Neutral | $86.50B | 17.89 | 11.24% | 1.82% | 6.27% | -4.37% | |
63 Neutral | $46.80B | 36.72 | 6.91% | 0.91% | 18.33% | -18.53% | |
62 Neutral | $118.82B | 24.63 | 6.43% | 2.47% | 7.41% | 6.51% | |
60 Neutral | $32.11B | -6.30 | -24.03% | ― | 13.89% | -356.11% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
UNH
UnitedHealth
401.01
106.61
36.21%
CNC
Centene
65.47
37.09
130.69%
CI
Cigna
280.87
-11.65
-3.98%
CVS
CVS Health
94.32
24.40
34.90%
HUM
Humana
391.06
97.41
33.17%
ELV
Elevance Health
402.54
98.52
32.40%
UnitedHealth Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
UnitedHealth Shareholders Back Board, Pay Plan and Auditor
Positive
Jun 5, 2026
At its June 1, 2026 annual meeting of shareholders, UnitedHealth investors elected nine directors to one-year terms, with each nominee receiving strong majority support and vote percentages largely in the mid-90s. Shareholders also approved, on a ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.