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Tonix Pharma
(NASDAQ:TNXP)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$13.50
▼(-1.17% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/08/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance—large ongoing losses and heavy cash burn despite improving revenue and low leverage. Technicals and the earnings call are moderately supportive due to improving momentum, rapid TONMYA launch growth, and expanding coverage, but valuation remains difficult to anchor because the company is unprofitable and offers no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
TONMYA commercial traction
TONMYA's rapid sales, prescription and refill growth indicates early product acceptance and repeat use, giving Tonix a commercial base beyond development-stage assets. If maintained, this traction can support broader reimbursement pull-through and improve operating leverage as launch investments mature.
Negative Factors
Persistent unprofitability
The company remains far from sustainable profitability despite sharply higher revenue and improved gross margin. A cost base well above current sales means commercial growth has not yet translated into earnings, leaving results vulnerable if launch momentum slows or expenses remain elevated.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
TONMYA commercial traction
TONMYA's rapid sales, prescription and refill growth indicates early product acceptance and repeat use, giving Tonix a commercial base beyond development-stage assets. If maintained, this traction can support broader reimbursement pull-through and improve operating leverage as launch investments mature.
Read all positive factors
Tonix Pharma (TNXP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$225.36M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)466.58K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.79
Revenue Growth196.02%
EPS Growth98.71%
CountryUS
Employees142
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-13.24
Shares Outstanding17,151,024
10 Day Avg. Volume494,272
30 Day Avg. Volume466,585
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.54
Price to Sales (P/S)10.14
P/FCF Ratio-1.29
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$38.00Price Target Upside178.18% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-9.72
Revenue Forecast (FY)$56.04M
Tonix Pharma Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. is a biopharmaceutical firm primarily operating in the clinical development stage. Its overarching mission involves the discovery, acquisition, advancement, and commercialization of novel therapeutic agents and ...
How the Company Makes Money
Tonix is a clinical-stage company and historically has not generated material recurring revenue from product sales because its primary drug candidates have generally been in development rather than broadly marketed. As a result, its ability to mak...
Tonix Pharma Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 10, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed meaningful commercial momentum for TONMYA with strong near-term sales growth, improving prescription/refill metrics, expanding payer coverage, and concrete clinical progress on two mid-stage programs (TNX-102 SL for MDD and TNX-4800 for Lyme prevention). These operational positives are tempered by materially higher R&D and SG&A expenses, a limited cash runway into early Q2 2027 (requiring subsequent equity proceeds), ongoing gross-to-net and access variability, and event-driven risk for the TNX-4800 study that could delay readouts. Overall, the company demonstrates strong product and pipeline traction but faces near-term financial and trial-enrollment risks that warrant monitoring.Positive Updates
Strong TONMYA Launch and Rapid Sales Growth
TONMYA net sales of approximately $11.0M in Q2 2026, representing ~197% quarter-over-quarter growth (nearly triple Q1 sales); contributed to total net product revenue of ~$13.5M in Q2 (TONMYA + migraine products) vs. $2.0M in Q2 2025 (~+575% YoY).
Negative Updates
Significant Increase in Operating Expenses
Research & development expenses rose to ~$19.4M in Q2 2026 from $10.8M in Q2 2025 (+~79.6%), driven by higher manufacturing, clinical costs, and headcount. Selling, general & administrative expenses increased to ~$36.0M from $16.2M (+~122.2%), driven by launch-related sales & marketing investments and higher employee/professional expenses.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong TONMYA Launch and Rapid Sales Growth
TONMYA net sales of approximately $11.0M in Q2 2026, representing ~197% quarter-over-quarter growth (nearly triple Q1 sales); contributed to total net product revenue of ~$13.5M in Q2 (TONMYA + migraine products) vs. $2.0M in Q2 2025 (~+575% YoY).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that TONMYA’s launch is progressing with Q2’26 TONMYA net sales of ~$11.0M (second full quarter), driving total Q2 net product revenue of ~$13.5M (including ~$2.5M from migraine products); Q2 prescriptions were 12,592 (+100% QoQ), new patient scripts +36% QoQ and refills +207% QoQ. They said payer coverage now represents ~136M lives (≈43% of ~314M U.S. covered lives), rising to ~145M lives (≈46%) on Jan 1, 2027 after two GPO agreements (52M lives effective May/June) and a managed Medicare agreement (~9M lives), and plan to expand the field force by 50 reps to ~150 reps by September; gross‑to‑net and margins will continue to fluctuate in the range seen in Q1–Q2, wholesaler days‑on‑hand are stable, and cash was ~$176.2M at June 30, 2026 (expected to fund operations into early Q2’27 with subsequent equity proceeds). On the pipeline, TNX‑102 SL randomized the first patient in a ~360‑patient HORIZON study (MADRS at week 6 primary endpoint), and TNX‑4800 has FDA alignment for an adaptive Phase II field study targeting ~3,300 participants (1:1 randomization, 450 mg sub‑Q dosing, primary efficacy through 6 months) planned to start in Q1’27 with most enrollment expected in 2028 (may extend into 2029 if attack rates are lower).Tonix Pharma Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Mar 2024 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 29.10M | 13.11M | 10.09M | 7.77M | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 23.35M | 4.54M | 2.33M | 3.03M | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBITDA | -157.56M | -122.01M | -74.32M | -112.37M | -108.97M | -92.24M |
| Net Income | -159.67M | -124.02M | -130.04M | -116.66M | -110.22M | -92.29M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 254.09M | 277.17M | 162.89M | 154.46M | 225.69M | 240.90M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 176.23M | 207.64M | 98.78M | 24.95M | 120.23M | 178.66M |
| Total Debt | 1.27M | 1.31M | 5.30M | 9.81M | 760.00K | 956.00K |
| Total Liabilities | 31.81M | 32.02M | 23.33M | 48.93M | 18.51M | 22.18M |
| Stockholders Equity | 222.28M | 245.15M | 139.56M | 105.53M | 207.18M | 218.72M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -159.89M | -103.21M | -61.05M | -109.90M | -146.20M | -110.86M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -154.72M | -99.84M | -60.92M | -102.00M | -98.05M | -75.56M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.33M | -4.53M | -120.00K | -29.07M | -48.15M | -35.31M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 213.05M | 214.53M | 134.87M | 36.52M | 87.84M | 212.49M |
Tonix Pharma Technical Analysis
Neutral
13.66
Price Trends
12.12
Positive
12.47
Positive
14.09
Negative
Market Momentum
0.44
Positive
55.15
Neutral
37.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TNXP, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 13.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.03, above the 50-day MA of 12.12, and below the 200-day MA of 14.09, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.44 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TNXP.
Tonix Pharma Risk Analysis
Tonix Pharma disclosed 69 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tonix Pharma reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Tonix Pharma Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $215.13M | 11.00 | 31.61% | ― | 30.14% | 181.54% | |
56 Neutral | $225.36M | -0.99 | -68.99% | ― | 196.02% | 98.71% | |
55 Neutral | $220.88M | -3.11 | 593.93% | ― | -77.09% | 6.91% | |
52 Neutral | $1.03B | -4.16 | -58.03% | ― | -86.62% | 14.74% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
49 Neutral | $297.15M | -2.38 | -65.08% | ― | -23.36% | 27.52% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
TNXP
Tonix Pharma
13.16
-12.66
-49.03%
PLX
Protalix
2.65
0.93
54.07%
FATE
Fate Therapeutics
2.50
1.52
155.36%
AVTX
Avalo Therapeutics
19.71
8.10
69.77%
IPHA
Innate Pharma
2.05
<0.01
0.24%
Tonix Pharma Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Tonix Pharma Appoints New Chief Commercial Officer
Positive
Sep 8, 2026
On September 8, 2026, Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. announced the appointment of Thomas Englese as Chief Commercial Officer, effective immediately. The move signals a focus on expanding commercial capabilities and preparing for potential pro...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Tonix Pharma Names CEO Seth Lederman Interim CMO
Neutral
Aug 18, 2026
On August 18, 2026, Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. appointed its President, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman, Dr. Seth Lederman, as Interim Chief Medical Officer. Lederman, who has led the company since October 2011, will retain his exist...
Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related AnnouncementsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Tonix Pharma Advances Phase 2 Lyme Disease Vaccine Study
Positive
Aug 3, 2026
On August 3, 2026, Tonix Pharmaceuticals reported it had received official minutes from a Type C meeting with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, confirming alignment on the design of an adaptive Phase 2 field study of TNX-4800 for preventing L...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Tonix Pharma announces upcoming retirement of chief medical officer
Negative
Jul 21, 2026
On July 20, 2026, Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. reported that Chief Medical Officer Dr. Gregory M. Sullivan had given notice of his retirement. His departure from the C-suite, effective August 20, 2026, marks a significant change in the comp...
Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Tonix Pharma expands Medicare coverage for TONMYA therapy
Positive
Jul 13, 2026
On July 13, 2026, Tonix Pharmaceuticals announced it had entered into an agreement with a pharmacy benefit manager that will provide Medicare Part D coverage for its drug TONMYA starting January 1, 2027, extending access to approximately 9 million...
Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Tonix Pharma Begins Pivotal Phase 2 Depression Trial
Positive
Jun 29, 2026
On June 29, 2026, Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. reported that it had enrolled the first participant in HORIZON, a potentially pivotal Phase 2 clinical trial of TNX-102 SL 5.6 mg as a first-line monotherapy for adults with major depressive di...
Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Tonix Pharma Expands Coverage and Access for TONMYA
Positive
Jun 8, 2026
On June 8, 2026, Tonix Pharmaceuticals announced it had entered into an agreement, effective June 1, 2026, with a group purchasing organization to provide coverage for its product TONMYA to approximately 17 million U.S. commercially insured indivi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.