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Sterling Infrastructure
(NASDAQ:STRL)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$412.00
▼(-15.29% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/23/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance and a very constructive earnings update with raised guidance and expanding backlog. Offsetting these positives, technicals are notably weak with the stock in a downtrend and deeply oversold conditions. Valuation is acceptable but not cheap at ~29x earnings, with no dividend yield data to provide additional support.
Positive Factors
Backlog visibility and demand
Large backlog growth and book-to-burn above one indicate award inflow is exceeding revenue conversion, supporting multi-quarter visibility. The additional high-probability pipeline broadens future work opportunities and provides a durable foundation for continued revenue expansion.
Negative Factors
Transportation and building weakness
Weakness in Transportation and Building Solutions creates a counterweight to rapid E-Infrastructure growth and makes consolidated performance more dependent on one expanding segment. Continued declines could reduce diversification, pressure utilization and limit the durability of overall growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Backlog visibility and demand
Large backlog growth and book-to-burn above one indicate award inflow is exceeding revenue conversion, supporting multi-quarter visibility. The additional high-probability pipeline broadens future work opportunities and provides a durable foundation for continued revenue expansion.
Read all positive factors
Sterling Infrastructure Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Shows profitability across different business areas, helping investors assess which segments are driving earnings and where there might be challenges.
Shows profitability across different business areas, helping investors assess which segments are driving earnings and where there might be challenges.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlySterling Infrastructure (STRL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.87B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)612.81K
Price to Earnings (P/E)25.3
Beta (1Y)2.14
Revenue Growth60.83%
EPS Growth51.23%
CountryUS
Employees4,400
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryEngineering & Construction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)14.03
Shares Outstanding30,588,518
10 Day Avg. Volume723,673
30 Day Avg. Volume612,806
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.34
Price to Book (P/B)8.44
Price to Sales (P/S)3.76
P/FCF Ratio25.79
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.40
Enterprise Value/Revenue7.57
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit31.82
Enterprise Value/Ebitda36.74
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$814.83Price Target Upside67.53% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)20.02
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.11B
Sterling Infrastructure Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. operates across three distinct business segments: transportation, e-infrastructure, and building solutions. The company's operations span a significant portion of the United States, including the Southern, Northeaster...
How the Company Makes Money
Sterling Infrastructure makes money primarily by performing construction and infrastructure projects under contract for customers and recognizing revenue as work is executed. Its key revenue streams typically come from (1) public-sector transporta...
Sterling Infrastructure Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 03, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial picture: very large top-line and EPS growth, doubled adjusted EBITDA, substantial backlog expansion and raised guidance. Key growth is concentrated in E-Infrastructure and CEC (electrical) with meaningful multi-year visibility into mission-critical projects. Offsetting considerations are localized revenue declines in Transportation and Building, margin dilution from rapid lower-margin electrical growth (mix effect), capacity and skilled-labor constraints, and short-term award timing risk that could cause a Q3 lull. Overall, the company appears to be executing well, investing to scale, and positioned for sustained growth, while managing transitional challenges related to mix and capacity.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue and EPS Growth
Consolidated revenue grew 90% in Q2 2026; adjusted diluted EPS rose 116% from $2.69 to $5.80, demonstrating outsized profitability improvement year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Transportation Revenue Decline
Transportation Solutions revenue declined 20% in Q2 as resources were reallocated to higher-margin E-Infrastructure work; management expects full-year Transportation revenue decline of ~7–10% and combined backlog is down 11% from year-end 2025.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue and EPS Growth
Consolidated revenue grew 90% in Q2 2026; adjusted diluted EPS rose 116% from $2.69 to $5.80, demonstrating outsized profitability improvement year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Sterling raised full‑year 2026 guidance to revenue of $4.00–$4.15 billion, diluted EPS $17.25–$17.85, adjusted diluted EPS $19.70–$20.30, EBITDA $829–$854 million and adjusted EBITDA $891–$916 million, with CapEx increased to $130–$140 million (up $30 million) after H1 cash flow from operations of $328 million; the company ended Q2 with $4.3 billion of signed backlog and $5.6 billion combined backlog (book‑to‑burn 1.4x backlog / 1.3x combined), a net cash position of $181 million ($464M cash / $284M debt), a $1.5 billion revolver, $35 million of H1 buybacks at an average $511.18 (remaining repurchase authority $339 million), and quantified segment outlooks that include E‑Infrastructure revenue growth of over 100% with mid‑20% adjusted operating margins (site development up ~70%+), Transportation revenue down ~7–10% with ~150–200 bps margin expansion, and Building Solutions modestly lower revenue with high‑single to low‑double‑digit margins; at the midpoints this guidance implies ~64% revenue growth, ~84% adjusted EPS growth and ~79% adjusted EBITDA growth versus prior year.Sterling Infrastructure Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.44B | 2.49B | 2.12B | 1.97B | 1.77B | 1.41B |
| Gross Profit | 818.59M | 572.31M | 426.12M | 337.64M | 274.57M | 203.53M |
| EBITDA | 708.92M | 505.38M | 451.94M | 277.34M | 212.82M | 142.32M |
| Net Income | 431.48M | 290.15M | 257.46M | 138.66M | 106.46M | 62.65M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.19B | 2.63B | 2.03B | 1.80B | 1.47B | 1.26B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 464.45M | 390.72M | 664.20M | 471.56M | 185.26M | 64.77M |
| Total Debt | 336.81M | 349.91M | 369.27M | 398.88M | 491.16M | 471.50M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.80B | 1.53B | 1.21B | 1.18B | 991.13M | 901.45M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.36B | 1.11B | 808.08M | 618.91M | 474.60M | 358.77M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 480.59M | 362.68M | 416.15M | 414.20M | 158.21M | 112.28M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 596.29M | 439.99M | 497.10M | 478.58M | 219.12M | 158.93M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -691.95M | -551.92M | -185.85M | -87.75M | -89.75M | -223.45M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -139.27M | -161.54M | -118.62M | -104.53M | -32.79M | 80.57M |
Sterling Infrastructure Technical Analysis
Negative
486.39
Price Trends
491.61
Negative
605.02
Negative
550.52
Negative
Market Momentum
-34.30
Positive
23.58
Positive
7.34
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STRL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 486.39 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 474.32, below the 50-day MA of 491.61, and below the 200-day MA of 550.52, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -34.30 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 23.58 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.34 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for STRL.
Sterling Infrastructure Risk Analysis
Sterling Infrastructure disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Sterling Infrastructure reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Sterling Infrastructure Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $28.57B | 20.16 | 38.42% | 0.25% | 18.92% | 33.51% | |
71 Outperform | $10.87B | 25.32 | 36.67% | ― | 60.83% | 51.23% | |
71 Outperform | $40.61B | 25.03 | 55.24% | 0.26% | 50.70% | 95.97% | |
70 Outperform | $82.15B | 61.81 | 14.86% | 0.08% | 26.30% | 34.94% | |
69 Neutral | $8.60B | 18.71 | 44.00% | ― | 22.66% | 83.09% | |
65 Neutral | $13.74B | 26.94 | 15.30% | ― | 23.46% | 86.29% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% |
* Industrials Sector Average
STRL
Sterling Infrastructure
355.30
-21.44
-5.69%
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Sterling Infrastructure Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Sterling Infrastructure Appoints New Chief Legal Officer
Positive
Oct 5, 2026
On October 5, 2026, Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. announced the appointment of Katherine Hargis as Senior Vice President, General Counsel, Chief Compliance Officer and Corporate Secretary, effective the same day. She succeeds Mark D. Wolf, who had...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Sterling Infrastructure Reports Record Q2 Results, Raises Guidance
Positive
Aug 3, 2026
Sterling Infrastructure reported record second-quarter 2026 results on August 3, 2026, with revenue surging 90% to $1.17 billion driven by both organic growth of about 50% and contributions from recent acquisitions CEC and Stone Ridge. Net income ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.