Shoe Carnival (SCVL) AI Stock Analysis

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Shoe Carnival

(NASDAQ:SCVL)

Rating:70Outperform

Price Target:

$21.50

▲( 10.82% Upside)

Shoe Carnival's strong valuation and positive earnings guidance are key strengths, supported by strategic growth plans and solid financials. However, declining sales in some segments and technical indicators suggest caution. The stock holds potential, but with risks tied to operational challenges and external economic factors.

Positive Factors

Competitive Advantage

SCVL's focus on national brands, and not on private label and exclusive brands will continue to prove a competitive advantage.

Financial Performance

Shoe Station stores comped positive, and Rogan sales and margins exceeded SCVL's internal plan in both 4Q24 and FY24.

Strategic Expansion

SCVL is growing the base of the more upscale Shoe Station banner through new build outs and conversion of select Shoe Carnival stores.

Negative Factors

Consumer Pressure

Cautious FY25 guidance is likely due to the Shoe Carnival banner's reliance on Hispanic consumers, who are experiencing pressures from government policies and inflation.

Natural Disasters

SSS in September and October were negatively impacted by the hurricane that caused temporary closing of ~50% stores, and warmer weather that caused boot sales to comp down over 30%.

Weather Impact

FY24 EPS guidance was maintained, but revenue guidance was lowered as warm weather resulted in a slow start to boot sales in the fall selling season.

Shoe Carnival (SCVL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$550.18M

Dividend Yield2.86%

Average Volume (3M)502.69K

Price to Earnings (P/E)7.5

Beta (1Y)1.00

Revenue Growth2.30%

EPS Growth0.88%

CountryUS

Employees2,500

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength74

IndustryApparel - Retail

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.54

Shares Outstanding27,331,512

10 Day Avg. Volume405,987

30 Day Avg. Volume502,690

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-6.03

Price to Book (P/B)0.75

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio6.36

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$17.00

Price Target Upside-12.37% Downside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering1

Shoe Carnival Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionShoe Carnival, Inc. (SCVL) is a leading family footwear retailer in the United States, offering a diverse range of shoes for men, women, and children. The company operates in the retail sector, focusing on providing a unique shopping experience through its open floor plans and friendly customer service. Shoe Carnival's core products include a wide variety of brand-name athletic, casual, and dress shoes, as well as accessories such as handbags, socks, and shoe care products.

How the Company Makes MoneyShoe Carnival makes money primarily through the sale of footwear and related accessories in its retail stores and through its online platform. The company's revenue model is based on direct sales to consumers, leveraging its extensive network of physical stores across the U.S. and its e-commerce site to reach a broad customer base. Key revenue streams include sales from athletic and casual footwear, which are particularly popular among its offerings. Additionally, Shoe Carnival benefits from its strategic partnerships with well-known footwear brands, allowing it to offer a wide range of high-demand products. Factors such as seasonal promotions, customer loyalty programs, and an engaging in-store experience also contribute to the company's earnings by driving foot traffic and encouraging repeat business.

Shoe Carnival Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Shoe Carnival's financial performance is stable, marked by strong cash flow generation and improving equity. Despite declining revenue and profitability margins, the balance sheet remains solid with manageable leverage.

Income Statement

Positive

Shoe Carnival has shown a mixed performance over the years. The Gross Profit Margin remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease from 2024 to 2025. The Net Profit Margin also showed consistent figures, indicating fair profitability. However, revenue has decreased in the two most recent years, with a noticeable decline from 2024 to 2025. EBIT and EBITDA margins have similarly shown a downward trend, reflecting challenges in operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company's balance sheet shows a strengthening equity position over time, with Stockholders' Equity rising from 2021 to 2025. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio is relatively stable, suggesting manageable leverage levels. Return on Equity has decreased, indicating potential profitability pressures. The Equity Ratio is improving, which is a positive sign of financial stability.

Cash Flow

Positive

Shoe Carnival's cash flow statement reveals healthy Free Cash Flow generation, particularly in 2025. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is strong, indicating good cash generation relative to earnings. There was a significant Free Cash Flow growth from 2023 to 2025, showcasing efficient cash management. However, fluctuations in Free Cash Flow in previous years suggest potential volatility.

Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.20B	1.18B	1.26B	1.33B	976.76M
	Gross Profit
428.79M	421.39M	468.16M	526.79M	279.98M
	EBIT
91.15M	95.58M	146.44M	207.65M	21.86M
	EBITDA
128.87M	125.22M	169.64M	269.44M	80.08M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
73.77M	73.35M	110.07M	154.88M	15.99M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
123.11M	111.25M	62.97M	132.40M	106.53M
	Total Assets
1.12B	1.04B	989.78M	812.26M	642.75M
	Total Debt
367.99M	354.34M	343.23M	246.35M	231.42M
	Net Debt
259.31M	255.34M	291.86M	128.91M	124.88M
	Total Liabilities
475.14M	458.64M	464.21M	359.73M	332.57M
	Stockholders Equity
649.00M	583.39M	525.57M	452.53M	310.18M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
69.48M	66.47M	-26.86M	116.51M	51.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
102.64M	122.76M	50.44M	147.89M	63.40M
	Investing Cash Flow
-77.67M	-54.64M	-74.03M	-119.25M	-12.09M
	Financing Cash Flow
-15.29M	-20.49M	-42.48M	-17.73M	-6.67M

Shoe Carnival Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price19.40

Price Trends

50DMA

19.63

Negative

100DMA

23.19

Negative

200DMA

30.59

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

0.18

Negative

RSI

51.93

Neutral

STOCH

62.24

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SCVL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 19.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.60, below the 50-day MA of 19.63, and below the 200-day MA of 30.59, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.24 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SCVL.

Shoe Carnival Risk Analysis

Shoe Carnival disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Shoe Carnival reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Shoe Carnival Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AEO	71 Outperform	$1.99B	6.84	18.80%	4.70%	1.27%	96.32%
SCVL	70 Outperform	$550.18M	7.51	11.97%	2.86%	2.30%	0.88%
BOOT	68 Neutral	$4.98B	26.84	17.44%	―	14.64%	21.68%
CRI	67 Neutral	$1.34B	8.14	18.91%	8.70%	-3.39%	-28.96%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.97B	11.36	2.77%	3.91%	2.66%	-22.00%
FL	56 Neutral	$2.30B	194.95	0.62%	―	-2.20%	―
GCO	48 Neutral	$246.42M	―	-3.49%	―	0.02%	-31.11%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

SCVL

Shoe Carnival

19.51

-16.09

-45.20%

AEO

American Eagle

10.85

-11.37

-51.17%

CRI

Carter's

32.36

-30.10

-48.19%

Foot Locker

23.87

1.96

8.95%

GCO

Genesco

21.86

-4.14

-15.92%

BOOT

Boot Barn

159.58

48.35

43.47%

Shoe Carnival Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 20, 2025

(Q4-2024)

% Change Since: -13.70%|

Next Earnings Date:May 30, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call reflects a positive sentiment with strong strategic growth initiatives and financial strength despite some challenges in specific segments and external uncertainties. The rebanner strategy is expected to drive significant future profitability, and the company has effectively managed acquisitions and marketing strategies.

Q4-2024 Updates

Positive Updates

Net Sales Growth

Shoe Carnival achieved net sales of $1.2 billion in fiscal 2024, a growth of 2.3%, outperforming the industry which contracted mid-singles.

Shoe Station Segment Success

Shoe Station grew by 5.7%, becoming the fastest-growing retailer in the industry and leading to successful market entries and customer acquisition.

Rogan's Shoes Acquisition Benefits

Rogan's exceeded profit expectations, with full synergies captured ahead of schedule, contributing $16.5 million in Q4 sales.

Digital-First Marketing Strategy

Continued to drive highly profitable growth, particularly during event periods, achieving sales growth during Thanksgiving and Christmas.

Strong Financial Position

The company ended fiscal 2024 with zero debt, strong cash flow, and increased year-end cash balances, positioning well for future investments.

Shoe Station Rebranding Strategy

A new plan to rebanner stores under Shoe Station, aiming to transform it into a national leader, which is expected to increase profitability by over 20% in 2027.

Dividend Increase

Increased dividend by 11% to $0.15 per share, marking a 238% increase compared to five years ago and 52 consecutive quarters of dividends.

Negative Updates

Shoe Carnival Sales Decline

Comparable sales at Shoe Carnival declined 6.3% in Q4 and mid-singles for the year, primarily during non-event periods.

Boot Season Disappointment

Unseasonably warm weather led to a disappointing boot season, with sales declines in both men's and women's categories.

Pressure on Lower-Income Customers

Continued downtrend expected with lower-income customers, impacting non-event period sales at the Carnival banner.

Potential Tariff and Inflation Impact

Uncertainty regarding tariffs and inflation could affect pricing and consumer confidence, not fully accounted for in current guidance.

Company Guidance

During Shoe Carnival's fourth quarter 2024 earnings call, the company emphasized strong fiscal 2024 performance, with net sales reaching $1.2 billion, a 2.3% increase, despite industry-wide challenges. They achieved a net income of $75 million, translating to an EPS of $2.72, aligning with the high end of their guidance. The Shoe Station banner experienced robust growth of 5.7%, contributing significantly to the overall sales increase. The company maintained a gross profit margin above 35% for the fourth consecutive year. Strategic investments are planned to transform Shoe Station into a national brand, with 50 to 75 stores to be rebranded in fiscal 2025, aiming for a 20% profitability increase by 2027. The company ended the year with zero debt and increased cash reserves, affirming a commitment to shareholder returns with their 52nd consecutive dividend.

Shoe Carnival Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures

Shoe Carnival Sets 2025 Bonus Performance Criteria

Neutral

Mar 17, 2025

On March 12, 2025, Shoe Carnival’s Compensation Committee set the performance criteria for the fiscal 2025 bonus, based on operating income, with payouts ranging from 25% to 175% of target bonuses. Additionally, the committee granted restricted stock units and performance stock units under the 2017 Equity Plan, with vesting conditions tied to the company’s net income per diluted share and continuous service through 2028.

Executive/Board Changes

Shoe Carnival Announces Leadership Transition in Merchandising

Neutral

Feb 27, 2025

Shoe Carnival has announced the retirement of Carl N. Scibetta, its Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Merchandising Officer, effective April 4, 2025, after over 50 years in the retail industry. Tanya E. Gordon, who has been with the company in various merchandising roles since 2014, will succeed him as Executive Vice President and Chief Merchandising Officer starting April 6, 2025. This leadership transition is expected to continue the company’s focus on its core merchandise categories, leveraging Ms. Gordon’s extensive experience in women’s, children’s, and accessory merchandise.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.