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RealReal
(NASDAQ:REAL)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$9.50
▼(-13.08% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/16/26
The score is primarily held back by financial structure and trend: despite improving revenue and cash generation, the company still shows losses and a strained balance sheet with negative equity and significant debt. Offsetting this, the latest earnings call was notably constructive with raised full-year guidance and improving adjusted EBITDA, and the recent refinancing event reduces near-term financing pressure. Technicals remain weak with the stock trading below major moving averages.
Positive Factors
Growth and raised outlook
Double-digit GMV and revenue growth, together with raised full-year guidance, indicates strengthening marketplace activity and demand. Continued expansion can improve operating leverage, support reinvestment in technology and sourcing, and provide a durable base for earnings growth over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Negative equity and leverage
Persistently negative equity and substantial debt leave the company with limited financial flexibility relative to its capital structure. This can constrain investment choices, increase sensitivity to operating setbacks, and keep refinancing and deleveraging important risks even after the maturity extension.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Growth and raised outlook
Double-digit GMV and revenue growth, together with raised full-year guidance, indicates strengthening marketplace activity and demand. Continued expansion can improve operating leverage, support reinvestment in technology and sourcing, and provide a durable base for earnings growth over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
RealReal (REAL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.32B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.88M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.08
Revenue Growth17.73%
EPS Growth-112.49%
CountryUS
Employees3,140
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryLuxury Goods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.70
Shares Outstanding121,671,110
10 Day Avg. Volume3,170,682
30 Day Avg. Volume2,882,853
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.62
Price to Book (P/B)-4.36
Price to Sales (P/S)2.62
P/FCF Ratio98.70
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.34
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.36
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.27
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-90.52
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$17.50Price Target Upside60.11% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)0.1
Revenue Forecast (FY)$795.54M
RealReal Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The RealReal, Inc. manages a digital platform dedicated to the online resale of luxury goods throughout the United States. Its diverse inventory encompasses a wide array of categories, such as clothing and accessories for women, men, and children,...
How the Company Makes Money
The RealReal primarily makes money by taking a commission (often referred to as a “take rate”) on the sale of consigned luxury items. Consignors send or drop off goods, The RealReal handles processing and selling, and when an item sells, the compa...
RealReal Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive operational and financial story: record GMV, double‑digit top‑line growth, expanding adjusted EBITDA margins, stronger buyer engagement, and clear progress on AI and automation that is driving operating leverage. Management raised full‑year guidance and highlighted multiple, complementary supply channels and product initiatives. Near‑term headwinds include a year‑over‑year decline in take rate (driven by favorable higher‑ticket mix) and intentional marketing/investment spend that modestly compressed flow‑through in Q2; several strategic initiatives remain early in their scaling path and therefore carry execution risk. Overall, the positives — durable GMV/revenue growth, margin expansion, improved cash generation, and compounding technology advantages — outweigh the limited short‑term challenges and execution risks.Positive Updates
Record GMV and Strong GMV Growth
GMV reached an all-time high of $617M in Q2, up 22% year-over-year and accelerating to +37% on a 2-year stacked basis; this was the fourth consecutive quarter of GMV growth above 20%.
Negative Updates
Take Rate Decline
Take rate decreased to 35.9%, down ~200 basis points year-over-year, driven by a favorable shift toward higher-dollar transactions (items >$1,000) which lowers the percentage take rate even as profit dollars per transaction rise.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record GMV and Strong GMV Growth
GMV reached an all-time high of $617M in Q2, up 22% year-over-year and accelerating to +37% on a 2-year stacked basis; this was the fourth consecutive quarter of GMV growth above 20%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised its outlook, guiding Q3 GMV to $610–$620M (17–19% YoY), Q3 revenue to $194–$198M (12–14% YoY) and Q3 adjusted EBITDA to $13.5–$14.5M; for the full year they now expect GMV of $2.535–$2.565B (19–20% YoY), revenue of $788–$797M (14–15% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA of $66–$69M (≈8.5% margin at the midpoint, ~240 bps improvement vs. 2025), while reiterating a medium‑term adjusted EBITDA target of 15–20%; operationally they expect Athena to process nearly 50% of items by year‑end, the automated storage & retrieval system to go live in Q4 (expanding Perth Amboy capacity ~35%), full‑year PP&E spend of ~2–3% of revenue, and they forecast strong positive free cash flow in Q3/Q4 with FCF outpacing adjusted EBITDA in H2 — building on Q2 results of GMV $617M (+22% YoY, +37% 2‑yr stacked), revenue $193M (+17%), adjusted EBITDA $13.5M (7%, +290 bps YoY), orders +8%, AOV $659 (+13%), trailing‑12‑month active buyers >1.1M (+11%), take rate 35.9% (‑200 bps YoY), gross margin 74.4%, gross profit $143M (+17%), cash $134M and Q2 capex $4M.RealReal Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
22
Negative
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 749.91M | 692.85M | 600.48M | 549.30M | 603.49M | 467.69M |
| Gross Profit | 542.40M | 483.82M | 447.52M | 376.28M | 348.69M | 273.48M |
| EBITDA | -19.57M | 19.27M | -79.44M | -125.79M | -158.13M | -190.99M |
| Net Income | -81.13M | -41.80M | -134.20M | -168.47M | -196.44M | -236.11M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 378.29M | 409.03M | 423.10M | 446.92M | 615.64M | 754.94M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 119.13M | 151.23M | 172.21M | 175.71M | 293.79M | 418.17M |
| Total Debt | 463.31M | 463.25M | 546.55M | 577.37M | 595.74M | 509.79M |
| Total Liabilities | 756.02M | 824.55M | 830.47M | 750.22M | 785.73M | 681.82M |
| Stockholders Equity | -377.73M | -415.52M | -407.38M | -303.30M | -170.09M | 73.13M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 30.18M | 18.37M | -4.50M | -90.44M | -114.42M | -189.59M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 53.84M | 37.01M | 21.55M | -61.27M | -91.56M | -142.15M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -30.87M | -29.22M | -25.59M | -42.13M | -36.92M | -43.44M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.73M | -28.87M | 539.00K | 226.00K | 4.10M | 252.91M |
RealReal Technical Analysis
Positive
10.93
Price Trends
10.02
Positive
10.67
Positive
11.14
Negative
Market Momentum
0.25
Negative
61.61
Neutral
76.53
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For REAL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.93 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.73, above the 50-day MA of 10.02, and below the 200-day MA of 11.14, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for REAL.
RealReal Risk Analysis
RealReal disclosed 55 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. RealReal reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
RealReal Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $1.58B | 21.82 | 14.05% | ― | 10.80% | 59.70% | |
70 Outperform | $995.54M | 24.18 | -94.69% | 4.99% | 8.61% | -0.68% | |
65 Neutral | $292.09M | 13.08 | 31.49% | 176.87% | 47.74% | 162.62% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
57 Neutral | $1.32B | -15.49 | 21.10% | ― | 17.73% | -112.49% | |
57 Neutral | $1.45B | 58.56 | 5.75% | ― | 10.03% | -24.86% | |
51 Neutral | $262.67M | -11.20 | -37.30% | ― | 15.58% | 64.75% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
REAL
RealReal
10.84
-1.48
-12.01%
WINA
Winmark
279.71
-112.88
-28.75%
ELA
Envela
11.25
2.68
31.27%
RVLV
Revolve Group
22.26
-1.42
-6.00%
TDUP
thredUP
2.00
-6.97
-77.70%
SVV
Savers Value Village Inc.
9.37
-4.12
-30.54%
RealReal Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
RealReal secures new credit facility to refinance debt
Positive
Oct 15, 2026
On October 9, 2026, The RealReal entered into a new credit agreement with Fortress affiliates, securing a $150 million senior term loan and a $25 million revolving facility to refinance its 4.25%/8.75% senior secured notes due 2029. The term loan ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.