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Porch Group
(NASDAQ:PRCH)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$20.50
▲(18.77% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/14/26
PRCH scores as moderately attractive, led by improving operating performance and strong cash generation despite a highly leveraged balance sheet, plus a bullish technical setup. The latest earnings call adds support due to raised guidance and an expected shift to sustained profitability. Offsetting these positives are weak valuation signals (negative P/E, no dividend yield) and ongoing capital-structure risk.
Positive Factors
Insurance growth and margins
Insurance Services is showing strong revenue growth alongside substantial margin expansion, indicating improving unit economics and operating leverage. Continued policy growth and premium conversion could make this segment an increasingly important contributor to Porch’s earnings and cash generation over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
High leverage and thin equity
Porch’s substantial debt relative to its very small equity cushion leaves limited protection if operating results weaken. Leverage can increase financing and refinancing pressure, constrain strategic flexibility and make cash generated by the business more important for maintaining resilience and funding future growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Insurance growth and margins
Insurance Services is showing strong revenue growth alongside substantial margin expansion, indicating improving unit economics and operating leverage. Continued policy growth and premium conversion could make this segment an increasingly important contributor to Porch’s earnings and cash generation over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Porch Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Gross Profit by Segment
Shows profit after direct costs for each segment, highlighting where Porch earns healthy margins versus where revenue is thin after costs. Helps identify which businesses are scalable and which rely on volume or expensive fulfillment, signaling where margin expansion or cost control could improve overall earnings.
Shows profit after direct costs for each segment, highlighting where Porch earns healthy margins versus where revenue is thin after costs. Helps identify which businesses are scalable and which rely on volume or expensive fulfillment, signaling where margin expansion or cost control could improve overall earnings.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyPorch Group (PRCH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.00B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.67M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.54
Revenue Growth15.79%
EPS Growth-125.94%
CountryUS
Employees801
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.12
Shares Outstanding113,519,840
10 Day Avg. Volume1,855,944
30 Day Avg. Volume1,666,753
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio3.12
Price to Book (P/B)-38.45
Price to Sales (P/S)1.96
P/FCF Ratio18.18
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.09
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.33
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.05
Enterprise Value/Ebitda23.91
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$20.58Price Target Upside19.25% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.02
Revenue Forecast (FY)$512.65M
Porch Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Porch Group, Inc. functions as a technology company, delivering a comprehensive software platform across both the United States and Canada. Its business model is structured around two core segments: Vertical Software and Insurance. The Vertical So...
Porch Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 02, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveys largely positive momentum: strong, high‑margin growth coming from Insurance Services with accelerating policies written, raised full‑year guidance, a healthier reciprocal statutory surplus and inaugural reinsurance (cat bond). Offsetting items are concentrated and generally manageable in the near term — a softer homeowners pricing environment that briefly pressured conversion, non‑recurring benefits supporting some margin improvement, a Q2 storm, and subdued performance in housing‑tied Software & Data and Consumer Services. Management emphasized durable economics, AI/data advantages, and path to continued scaling and profitability.Positive Updates
Positive Net Income Milestone
Net income attributable to Porch shareholders was $6 million in Q2 and management expects positive net income for the full year 2026 and ongoing, marking a transition to sustained profitability.
Negative Updates
Stagnant Housing Market Pressures Other Segments
Software & Data and Consumer Services revenues were relatively flat year-over-year (Software & Data revenue $23M, Consumer Services $18M) with the Software & Data decline driven by sunsetting a legacy SMB product; both segments tied to a weak U.S. housing market.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Positive Net Income Milestone
Net income attributable to Porch shareholders was $6 million in Q2 and management expects positive net income for the full year 2026 and ongoing, marking a transition to sustained profitability.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Porch substantially raised 2026 targets: revenue for Porch‑owned segments (ex‑reciprocal) is now guided to $506–$517M (midpoint $512M, +22% y/y), gross profit ex‑reciprocal to $419–$429M (midpoint +23% y/y) and adjusted EBITDA ex‑reciprocal to $119–$125M (midpoint $122M, +59% y/y); the company has already generated $59M of adjusted EBITDA in H1 (Q2 adjusted EBITDA ex‑reciprocal $39M), has increased midpoint guidance by >$20M since the start of the year, expects net income attributable to Porch shareholders to be positive for the full year and going forward, targets reciprocal written premium (RWP) of $600M (H1 RWP $255M, H2 expected ~$345M) with policies ramping to >70,000/quarter by year‑end, expects leverage to be better than 3x this year, and cites a strong reciprocal statutory surplus of $170M (up 33% y/y) that today supports >$800M of premium and approaches $2B of capacity.Porch Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 504.39M | 482.41M | 437.85M | 430.30M | 275.95M | 192.43M |
| Gross Profit | 361.11M | 339.99M | 212.22M | 210.06M | 168.37M | 133.71M |
| EBITDA | 91.42M | 98.92M | 37.35M | -77.07M | -119.06M | -94.74M |
| Net Income | -5.65M | 15.32M | -32.83M | -133.93M | -156.56M | -106.61M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 815.96M | 797.42M | 813.97M | 899.39M | 1.05B | 1.04B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 218.46M | 65.80M | 191.74M | 294.01M | 251.58M | 324.99M |
| Total Debt | 405.28M | 392.83M | 403.94M | 435.74M | 444.30M | 417.43M |
| Total Liabilities | 796.58M | 775.04M | 857.19M | 935.08M | 969.70M | 821.70M |
| Stockholders Equity | -11.84M | -24.62M | -43.23M | -35.68M | 79.35M | 217.04M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 83.67M | 52.06M | -32.20M | 23.83M | -28.19M | -39.47M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 96.32M | 66.42M | -31.68M | 33.93M | -17.74M | -34.78M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -72.37M | -71.92M | -45.06M | -56.25M | -79.68M | -263.43M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -16.24M | -22.17M | -23.71M | 90.95M | 1.23M | 415.55M |
Porch Group Technical Analysis
Positive
17.26
Price Trends
17.08
Positive
15.26
Positive
11.84
Positive
Market Momentum
0.30
Negative
50.79
Neutral
60.00
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PRCH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.26 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.40, above the 50-day MA of 17.08, and above the 200-day MA of 11.84, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.30 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PRCH.
Porch Group Risk Analysis
Porch Group disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Porch Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Porch Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
88 Outperform | $3.32B | 5.84 | 50.69% | 0.25% | 41.43% | -57.28% | |
87 Outperform | $1.08B | 5.14 | 42.41% | 6.76% | 1.45% | 102.69% | |
81 Outperform | $1.31B | 5.63 | 38.46% | 1.63% | 5.37% | 92.17% | |
80 Outperform | $2.49B | 7.71 | 30.79% | 0.80% | 22.83% | 86.58% | |
76 Outperform | $1.01B | 7.98 | 27.38% | ― | 19.34% | ― | |
69 Neutral | $2.00B | -144.05 | 25.17% | ― | 15.79% | -125.94% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
PRCH
Porch Group
17.66
2.17
14.01%
UVE
Universal Insurance Holdings
47.21
16.66
54.51%
HRTG
Heritage Insurance Holdings
36.21
13.12
56.82%
HCI
HCI Group
199.96
0.17
0.08%
HIPO
Hippo Holdings
38.30
1.62
4.42%
SLDE
Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc.
28.39
12.90
83.29%
Porch Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Porch Group Announces Major Allied Trust Acquisition Deal
Positive
Oct 13, 2026
Porch Group and its Porch Insurance Reciprocal Exchange on October 13, 2026 signed agreements to acquire Allied Trust’s insurance carrier, MGA and captive reinsurer for $200 million, payable in a mix of cash and Porch common stock and subjec...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Porch Group Raises Guidance After Strong Q2 Results
Positive
Jul 29, 2026
On July 29, 2026, Porch Group reported second-quarter 2026 results that outpaced internal expectations, prompting the company to raise guidance for the rest of the year. Consolidated revenue rose 12% year over year to $140.9 million, with Porch-ow...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.